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Why does everyone assume Read Dead Redemption 2 is a guaranteed to have massive sales?
- Thread starter ToddBonzalez
- Start date
Sure! Why not? Better tech, better budget, plus you know the eventual PC version and next gen console versions are coming as well
I predict few people will bump this thread after a huge sales report and it will be closed in the near future.
GTA V sold absolute gangbusters like crazy, and word of mouth for this one is essentially "get it, it's from the gta guys".
It would have to be absolutely awful to a point I actually can't imagine to get word of mouth against it strong enough for it to not sell at least decently well.
It would have to be absolutely awful to a point I actually can't imagine to get word of mouth against it strong enough for it to not sell at least decently well.
Who said it would be game of the year? We're just saying the game is guaranteed to sell a bunch of copies since its rockstar.
I didn't bring up my tweet in this thread. You did. That was only about satisfying my own curiosity, and it has nothing to do with this.
But c'mon -- Irrational Games closed down months after releasing BioShock Infinite because the game didn't sell well enough. This is literally from the Plante piece you linked to:
That isn't up for debate.
To answer why I think BioShock Infinite is relevant, I see a lot of parallels between Red Dead Redemption 2 and BioShock Infinite.
- They are both massive games with huge single-player campaigns.
- They are both sequels to breakout hits that now have a huge amount of expectations.
- They both took 5+ years of development.
- They both seem like the most expensive games made as of the time of their release.
- They both need(ed) to sell way more than their predecessors to make them a worthwhile return on investment.
So because the game has taken even longer and costs even more money, it is somehow no longer anything like the best previous example of a game that took way too long with an inflated budget?
Look, the point here is that before BioShock Infinite came out, no one considered the possibility that it wouldn't meet and then exceed sales expectations. It was a foregone conclusion that Infinite would become one of the best-selling games of all time. And I think people are making the same assumptions about Red Dead. And I get the reasoning here a bit more. Red Dead Online is going to perform exactly like GTA Online did ... but I don't know why we believe that's the case either. I think that's another assumption that people are just accepting as inevitable, when it really isn't.
But OK. Sure. Bad example.
OP
OP
I agree. like 80% of the posts here boil down to either. 1.) it's a Rockstar game, so therefore the game will be a hit 2.) GTA V was a hit, so therefore Red Dead will be a hit. 3.) The game had a high budget and took time to develop, so therefore it will be a hit.
I knew what I was getting into when I created this thread, but these arguments don't hold water. Again, I myself think the game will sell well, but the above justifications for this belief aren't compelling to me.
Out of curiosity how was bioshock's sales in comparison to gta iv at the time? (Genuine question).
Because I have no doubt Infinite was very hyped and was considered a huge shoe in for success, but in my head I feel like it was still dwarfed in comparison to something like GTA.
Obviously my examples are anecdotal but generally I find that even people that are only tangentially into playing games know GTA as a series (and RDR) while they didn't really know what bioshock was.
It essentially feels like GTA/RDR are ingrained in the public consciousness at this point (sort of like how star wars or certain lines from star trek are) where everyone has at least heard of it, and thus their release is seen as a huge deal even to those that aren't particularly interested in gaming.
Exactly. People are making assumptions, and I point to Infinite as evidence that we should question those assumptions. I still think RDR2 is going to sell a lot. I don't know if it outsells Black Ops 4. And I don't know that it really justifies its budget. It could, but I also think it's possible that it doesn't.
RDR 2 will have the goodwill and word of mouth from the first game and it being Rockstar helps get you out there no matter what. The game can pull a Driver and still sell crazy at first.
Marketing muted? Social media is practically friending for the slightest scrap of info, there were massive murals in tons of major cities, literal hype trains like with Spider-Man, etc
Informed assumptions based on the past events. Infinite and RDR2 aren't really comparable at all besides being AAA games
Here's what you said: "My assumptions based on past events are good. Your call to question assumptions based on past events is bad."
Oh, word?
I mean, you posted it after talking in this thread. You posted it because of the discussion in this thread, it's kind of related no?
But it is up for debate, there was a mass of reasons Irrational downsized. 11m+ sales wasn't the main reason. The studio had a unique culture under Levine, it naturally downsized after launch anyway, they got given the DLC to produce from a different developer that was originally going to make it, they had no new project in the pipeline which is in relation to Levine's disenchantment with AAA development and Irrational lived or died depending on Levine's ideas and pursuits.
Irrational downsized to a smaller studio to Levine's preference, and 2K moved Bioshock to a different studio they own.
If Infinite was the bomb you're making it out to be then Irrational would just have been shut down and Levine released, the ip would be dead and we wouldn't have numerous reasons for the studio 'closing'. Infinite was successful, Levine still has total creative freedom to do what he wants within 2K and they're continuing the IP elsewhere.
Infinite sold more than double its predecessor and gained Take2 about $70m more than its previous quarter upon release; at a time they they pouring money into GTAV and other big projects.
'Because A is different you can't compare it to B?!'
Infinite is VERY different to RDR. Red Dead has much more mass appeal, a multiplayer component and is coming off the back of a 15m+ seller, and not a 4m+ seller.
Irrational took 5 years near enough on the dot, and had a team of about 200 with assistance from 2K Australia. Red Dead Redemption 2 has taken 8 years and has probably had 1000 people working on it. Rockstar North by itself is twice the size of Irrational and Rockstar had all their teams working on it.
It wasn't a foregone conclusion it would be one of the best selling games of all time, people expected a good game and it to sell well; which is what it did. Regardless of what you think selling more than 11m copies is selling well. That probably exceeded people's expectations.
People have far different expectations from Infinite to RDR2. One is coming off the back of the highest grossing entertainment product of all time for starters, from a household name that transcends the medium unlike Irrational. It is absolutely inevitable that Red Dead Redemption 2 will sell well.
And no one expects it to sell as well as GTAV, nor do people expect the online MTX to be as profitable as GTAV. What we do expect is the MTX to be a big earner, on top of an already successful game.
Infinite is not Red Dead Redemption 2. Nor will we see Dan Houser turn Rockstar into a 25 man team to develop smaller narrative experiences while Gearbox get given the RDR franchise to continue.
I agree OP. It will sell well but it's not GTA. It's really underselling the GTA IP to suggest anything by the same developer will have even close to the same amount of success.
Yes Rockstar is well known, but I feel like I'm in crazy town with some people in here suggesting they're like a household name.
Yes Rockstar is well known, but I feel like I'm in crazy town with some people in here suggesting they're like a household name.
It's the first new ROCKSTAR game in 5 years, and the only ROCKSTAR game we're getting this gen. Doesn't hurt that it's a sequel to one of the greatest games of last gen.
Did I mention ROCKSTAR
Did I mention ROCKSTAR
Depends on what you mean by massive.
If we're talking the criteria used for most of the gaming world, then yeah, I think it'll be pretty big. The R* name and the success of the first game points towards that imo.
But if we're talking in relation to GTA, the no. Like almost anything else, it'll fall well short of GTA.
If we're talking the criteria used for most of the gaming world, then yeah, I think it'll be pretty big. The R* name and the success of the first game points towards that imo.
But if we're talking in relation to GTA, the no. Like almost anything else, it'll fall well short of GTA.
Bioshock was much more recognizable in a popular sense then and probably still is today. It has to be Take 2's most well-known (non-sports) title/universe after GTA. Plenty of people who do not play games know Bioshock or have heard of it. RDR is a more insular, gamer-centric appeal. That may change after the marketing barrage for RDR2, but I honestly don't expect it to.
I'm not sure what the numbers are, but GTA V (Online) is massive. The game itself is still topping charts. Every single time somebody loads into GTA V there are several screens promoting Red Dead, and that's been the case since the launch trailer.
Because it's an intersection of multiple factors that, on their OWN, would get really good numbers.
Bioshock 1 sold roughly 4m, GTA IV sold roughly 25m.
I mean what tangible evidence do you expect? You can't really expect us to have the absolute pre-order data and know how many people will purchase the game upon release and during the holiday season. Take2 don't release sales projections, but everything they've said is in absolute confidence it'll be a hit.
People believe Red Dead Redemption 2 will sell well because the predecessor was a critical and commercial hit, selling over 15 million copies and winning numerous accolades and remembered incredibly fondly causing a high demand for a sequel.
Grand Theft Auto is a household name that transcends the medium, this is a game from the same developers built upon the same framework. Their last game sold what 100m copies? And to this day continues to sell well and be played and earn billions from microtransactions. This is their first game built from the ground up for this generation of consoles.
The game's production value is absurd. It is gorgeous and the interactivity is incredible, it is obvious it is a huge enticing product that has a lot to offer for the consumer. The game looks great and has had a lot of buzz therefore that'll generate sales.
Red Dead Redemption 2 Will Sell at Least 15 Million Copies, Analyst Says. That number may even be conservative, Cowen & Company says.
The game is having extensive media coverage and a multitude of marketing further pushing it into the public consciousness.
Even look on this forum. The preview thread has 137 pages, a thread about the install size has 4 pages, a thread about 'why do people assume it will sell well' has 7, an 11 page thread about the review embargo date, 79 page thread about a gameplay video, even trailer 3 reached 40 pages.
What will convince you that it is a logical assumption that RDR2 is going to sell really well?
Era is not the general public, currently theres like zero threads for COD, maybe sometimes one or two.
Dont even get me started on sports games.
With that said this game is gonna sell gangbusters
Its going to sell very well, but anyone thinking it will be a GTA success just because RockStar are up to a big surprize.
RDR sold 15+ Million "only", i predict RDR2 can double those numbers, but thats it. Not many ppl are into the wild west setting compared to GTA setting.
RDR sold 15+ Million "only", i predict RDR2 can double those numbers, but thats it. Not many ppl are into the wild west setting compared to GTA setting.
It'll sell very well, and the online will bring in extended cash flows... and it'll have legs for sure.
I'm saying the past events you're conflating aren't that similar.
These were your points of comparisons
3, 4, 5 are true for sure but 1 and 2 seem much less so
For one, I wouldn't really call Bioshock Infinite a game with a huge single player game. THe game's like 12 hours long and extremely linear. That's not a bad thing but by contrast, being open world and the promise of more bang for your buck already makes RDR more appealing for a general audience.
And RDR2 has several advantages that Infinite didn't. Being familiar, based around characters people are fans in a setting people enjoyed, compared to Infinite being a detour from the familiarity of Rapture while still having elements that felt like copies of Bioshock 1 and 2 stuff (ie plasmids = vigors). Being Rockstar's first current gen game. Essentially being the highest-profile AAA open world game releasing besides AC: Odyssey, compared to Infinite releasing within weeks of Crysis 3, Dead Space 3, Tomb Raider, and Metro: Last Light, so if you were a fan of story-driven shooters or first person shooters, there were similar games.
Only 25m sales and $1.5billion in revenue? Welp, RIP Rockstar you had a good run. Time to close up.
GTA5 is probably going to be the best or second best selling game ever, especially with no GTA6 close. RDR2 won't come close to that, GTA5 is just on a different level.
Honestly why is Bioshock being brought up as the comparison at all? The sales for these two companies/series isn't even close. RDR sold more than Infinite on its own. RDR2 will most likely sell more than RDR1. This is ignoring all the other aspects of GTAV Online blowing up and Rockstar being a pure beast in terms of recognition and reputation. Such an odd comparison to bring up.
Which would also mean RDR2 would be selling as much as the entire Bioshock franchise by itself lol. I think RDR2 will be around there honestly. It will certainly be more than the first one. It might even do better than what I'm guessing, but I highly doubt it would do worse.
Which would also mean RDR2 would be selling as much as the entire Bioshock franchise by itself lol. I think RDR2 will be around there honestly. It will certainly be more than the first one. It might even do better than what I'm guessing, but I highly doubt it would do worse.
Because something something Bioshock Infinite.
Even the OP is like 'the game will sell well, but I don't know why everyone assumes it will sell well?!?!?!?!?!?!?!'
