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MrRob

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
6,671
y7fvvbuthccs36bxdemf.jpg

Just stop, man. Shut up. I'm not just some head in the clouds optimist. But I'm trying to be a realist. He just barely won and that was going against a historically controversial opponent. 30k votes in Wisconsin and/or Michigan and it's a completely different outcome.

Trump is historically unpopular. Yes, he has a VERY LOUD group of petulant children lapping up all of his bullshit and are stupidly amplified by our media because their blinding stupidity is entertaining and drives ratings. They are not representative to even half of the GOP voting populace. Nothing is ever impossible but if you think rationally and use facts and numbers him winning again would be incredibly difficult going against almost anyone that chooses to campaign in the middle of the country.

I'll make you a deal. If the GOP somehow manages to hold onto the House then I will be right here with you saying Trump is a lock for 2020 and our country is irredeemably broken and ever single liberal might as well move to Canada or anywhere besides the US and it won't be hyperbole at all.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,901
I also want to point out that while they have over 40 million in cash they also managed to waste away 8 fucking million dollars last quarter. I mean seriously? The 2018 elections haven't even happened yet and he's already spending 8 million a quarter.
 

nintendoman58

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,110
But only barely, for someone so detested Trump ought to be a lot lower no?

I personally think the moderates, people who aren't aligned to either party and voted Hillary out of fear of what a Trump presidency would bring, simply won't even vote in 2020 because for many they've tuned politics out of their lives and aren't feeling the negative effects that were foretold to them.

Sure, others are suffering, but they don't care.

Have you not seen any of the 50+ special elections this past year and a half where Dems flipped seats in mostly Republican areas? How about that one district that went for Trump by 20 points in 2016 that flipped to a Dem? People are angry and they're voting.
 

PanickyFool

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,947
Banned (3 Days): Low-effort posting, History of trolling
Just stop, man. Shut up. I'm not just some head in the clouds optimist. But I'm trying to be a realist. He just barely won and that was going against a historically controversial opponent. 30k votes in Wisconsin and/or Michigan and it's a completely different outcome.

Trump is historically unpopular. Yes, he has a VERY LOUD group of petulant children lapping up all of his bullshit and are stupidly amplified by our media because their blinding stupidity is entertaining and drives ratings. They are not representative to even half of the GOP voting populace. Nothing is ever impossible but if you think rationally and use facts and numbers him winning again would be incredibly difficult going against almost anyone that chooses to campaign in the middle of the country.

I'll make you a deal. If the GOP somehow manages to hold onto the House then I will be right here with you saying Trump is a lock for 2020 and our country is irredeemably broken and ever single liberal might as well move to Canada or anywhere besides the US and it won't be hyperbole at all.
9191.jpg
 

THE210

Member
Nov 30, 2017
1,544
Elizabeth Warren getting the Dem nomination would guarantee (or all but guarantee) a second Trump term. The same with Bernie.

Now, I have no opinion of the followjng person, I'm not even sure what party he really belong to (I think he's switched back and forth) but something tells me that the only one that could beat Trump, is Michael Bloomberg.

I could be totally wrong, and I'm sure there's a ton of people that hate Bloomberg and another large group that love him, or would vote for him just to beat Trump. Again, I don't know, it's just a feeling.

What on Earth are you basing this on? Trump barely won the first time so now all likely Democratic canidate s are doomed because Trump is suddenly unbeatable
 
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Betty

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,604
Have you not seen any of the 50+ special elections this past year and a half where Dems flipped seats in mostly Republican areas? How about that one district that went for Trump by 20 points in 2016 that flipped to a Dem? People are angry and they're voting.

I think conservative voters don't feel energised in these special elections because they have their president in place and that's all that matters to them. I bet if the Dem's weren't making such a fuss about the mid-terms most voters, liberal or otherwise, wouldn't be aware how important these elections can be in the long term.

We also already saw a surge of enthusiasm for the GOP with the recent supreme court drama and when 2020 rolls around all it takes is the right promise or threat from that party to get voters energised again.
 

Madison

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,388
Lima, Peru
Jesus y'all need to chill

One negative news piece and everything is on fire and negativity is on full display

Lets see if the blue wave hits, and react accordingly.
 

bye

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,422
Phoenix, AZ
I mean Hillary had no problem out-fundraising

And considering he never stopped campaigning its not very impressive
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,385
I think conservative voters don't feel energised in these special elections because they have their president in place and that's all that matters to them. I bet if the Dem's weren't making such a fuss about the mid-terms most voters, liberal or otherwise, wouldn't be aware how important these elections can be in the long term.

We also already saw a surge of enthusiasm for the GOP with the recent supreme court drama and when 2020 rolls around all it takes is the right promise or threat from that party to get voters energised again.
That "surge of enthusiasm" has been almost entirely fictional. You can't imagine how a party looking at a disastrous mid-term would want to create a narrative that the Republicans are all totally fired up thanks to _____?
 

Betty

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,604
That "surge of enthusiasm" has been almost entirely fictional. You can't imagine how a party looking at a disastrous mid-term would want to create a narrative that the Republicans are all totally fired up thanks to _____?

Oh I get that, but I still think they'll show up in 2020.
 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
Yeah it's a joke but Trump raised over 600 mil for his first campaign, Hillary almost double not even including media free dollars.

I think it's possible Trump will win in 2020 but calling it a sure thing before the primaries is fucking bizarre. Incumbent advantage also is a drawback if the incumbent party is immensely unpopular.
 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
Oh I get that, but I still think they'll show up in 2020.
It's possible for Democrats to outvote pretty much any Republican for Senate and presidential races.

The Republican base is still the minority of the country.

The highest voter turnout by percentage in the country's history was in 2008. Energizing republicans does nothing, they'll always have a solid minority of the votes. Energizing inconsistent dems, 3rd party and nonvoters is what matters.
 

Syriel

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
11,088
Trump's gonna be PISSED when he finds out he can't pocket the leftover money after the next election. heh
 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
Trump's gonna be PISSED when he finds out he can't pocket the leftover money after the next election. heh
There are ways around it. Wasn't it shown beyond reasonable doubt that he was making a profit off of his 2016 campaign thanks to his "charity" fuckery.
 

Imperfected

Member
Nov 9, 2017
11,737
Trump's gonna be PISSED when he finds out he can't pocket the leftover money after the next election. heh

He's going to rent out all his properties at exorbitant rates as campaign headquarters and boarding for campaign staff, at a minimum, assuming he doesn't come up with a better scam. Obscene amounts of this money will filter through to him.
 

nintendoman58

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,110
I think conservative voters don't feel energised in these special elections because they have their president in place and that's all that matters to them. I bet if the Dem's weren't making such a fuss about the mid-terms most voters, liberal or otherwise, wouldn't be aware how important these elections can be in the long term.

We also already saw a surge of enthusiasm for the GOP with the recent supreme court drama and when 2020 rolls around all it takes is the right promise or threat from that party to get voters energised again.

Do you think hardcore Trump supporters outnumber Dems all over the country? Because that's not true, at all.

The polls wouldn't be nearly this much in Dems favor if that was the case. That enthusiasm for the GOP has largely dissipated and the polls are bouncing back for Dems again.

Seriously, don't worry about Republicans being energized because they're basically almost always energized. Worry about energizing Dems and bringing independents/moderates to our side.
 

Madison

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,388
Lima, Peru
Tbh picturing the celebration of Trump being kicked out of the white house after only one terms powers me through some bad days, its possible, its just a matter of pushback and union
 

Replicant

Attempted to circumvent a ban with an alt
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,380
MN
The man holds multiple rallies a week and has since he took office.

Dude is getting more more years. It sucks, but his chances are very good.
 

Replicant

Attempted to circumvent a ban with an alt
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,380
MN
Also, Trump didn't know how to spend for his first campaign, so this is 100% compensation for that.
Didn't spend and still win. He gets free advertising by news organizations bringing in right wing pundits giving them their side. And Fox News daily sucking of his cock.
 

Betty

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,604
It's possible for Democrats to outvote pretty much any Republican for Senate and presidential races.

The Republican base is still the minority of the country.

The highest voter turnout by percentage in the country's history was in 2008. Energizing republicans does nothing, they'll always have a solid minority of the votes. Energizing inconsistent dems, 3rd party and nonvoters is what matters.

And I still think if the threat of Trump wasn't enough to bring out those groups you mentioned in 2016 then I don't see what will suddenly get them to show up in 2020.

At most I think more Dem's will vote, but 3rd party and nonvoters won't be swayed by the notion of another 4 years under this administration, they've become inured to the chaos and consider it the norm now.

Maybe post mid-terms myself and others that are favouring his re-election chances will think otherwise, we'll see.
 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
And I still think if the threat of Trump wasn't enough to bring out those groups you mentioned in 2016 then I don't see what will suddenly get them to show up in 2020.

At most I think more Dem's will vote, but 3rd party and nonvoters won't be swayed by the notion of another 4 years under this administration, they've become inured to the chaos and consider it the norm now.

Maybe post mid-terms myself and others that are favouring his re-election chances will think otherwise, we'll see.
Anyone stupid enough to donate to him was already voting for him.

Also, the American electorate doesn't have long term thinking, a lot of dems may have stayed home because they didn't think Trump could actually win. Now he's in power and is disliked by every Democrat and a sizable chunk of moderates/independents/non-voters.
 

Betty

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,604
All you need is Democrats to show up, because they greatly outnumber Republicans.

They showed up in 2016 and it still didn't matter, the electoral college will win Trump 2020 despite him losing the popular vote once again

Do you think hardcore Trump supporters outnumber Dems all over the country? Because that's not true, at all.

Well of course not, but when you add in every conservative who'll vote for their party even if they hate the person on the ticket you have a tougher fight on your hands.

Anyone stupid enough to donate to him was already voting for him.

Also, the American electorate doesn't have long term thinking, a lot of dems may have stayed home because they didn't think Trump could actually win. Now he's in power and is disliked by every Democrat and a sizable chunk of moderates/independents/non-voters.

Hopefully you're right and he loses then.
 

Starviper

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,431
Minneapolis
I'm not all that surprised since he never stopped campaigning. For comparison..

2008 - From Wikipedia
Candidate (Party) Amount raised Amount spent
Barack Obama (D) $778,642,962 $760,370,195
John McCain (R) $383,913,834 $358,008,447

2012 overall shows 4.2 billion spent; 2016 was ~6.5 billion.
 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
They showed up in 2016 and it still didn't matter, the electoral college will win Trump 2020 despite him losing the popular vote once again



Well of course not, but when you add in every conservative who'll vote for their party even if they hate the person on the ticket you have a tougher fight on your hands.



Hopefully you're right and he loses then.
Clinton trailed Obama by a few million votes and eligible voters went up from 2012 to 2016...
 

nintendoman58

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,110
They showed up in 2016 and it still didn't matter, the electoral college will win Trump 2020 despite him losing the popular vote once again

No they did not!

Dems were not at all engaged in 2016! Nowhere near on the level they have been in the two years that followed!

Well of course not, but when you add in every conservative who'll vote for their party even if they hate the person on the ticket you have a tougher fight on your hands.

That's still less than the amount of Dems that there are.
 

Betty

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,604
Clinton trailed Obama by a few million votes and eligible voters went up from 2012 to 2016...

Well I hope they show up in 2020 in the right states to swing them blue to win the presidency, but right now I know who i'd put money on to win.

No they did not!

Dems were not at all engaged in 2016! Nowhere near on the level they have been in the two years that followed!

That's still less than the amount of Dems that there are.

Then there's nothing to worry about and both the mid-terms and presidency should be in the bag.
 

Keldroc

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,984
He's gonna get re elected isn't he

He won by 80,000 votes across four states by a quirk of the electoral college. I'm not saying there's room for complacency but he should be utterly beatable if even 1% of the people in those states who didn't vote or protest voted for a third party candidate suck it up and vote Democrat this time.
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,385
They showed up in 2016 and it still didn't matter, the electoral college will win Trump 2020 despite him losing the popular vote once again



Well of course not, but when you add in every conservative who'll vote for their party even if they hate the person on the ticket you have a tougher fight on your hands.



Hopefully you're right and he loses then.
No, they did not show up, that's the whole point.
 

Deleted member 20284

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
2,889
Today on: Doomsayers of the Left

One hundred million isn't actually that much money with regard to modern campaigns. Democrats will likely easily field an equal amount. Calm the fuck down.

I don't know about that, at $100Mil he's already in the top 5 candidates. $100Mil already raised at this point is substantial and points to a huge well funded push for reelection. Take a look at what occurred in 2016, source NYTimes

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