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Oct 25, 2017
3,243
NYC
It's going to come down to who wants it more and who can get the most RBIs.

I think the teams that score the most runs and win at least 4 games will probably win each LCS series

You can't score runs if you can't hit the ball! All four teams will have to make sure to do that or else they will lose.

If you ask me, the team that makes the fewest mistakes while being sure to capitalize on the other team's mistakes will win.


I think the key will be the team that leads after nine innings will have the best chance to win games in October.
 

17 Seconds

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,589
Well good thing you're not cutting the checks then? I'm guessing the Cardinals are in a better position to make that evaluation, but hey what do I know.

i was just sharing my opinion, no need to be upset. and since when are we not allowed to question moves? were the Padres not in a better position to evaluate Eric Hosmer than us as well?
 

17 Seconds

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,589
Yeah run differential can definitely be deceiving if one team plays in a weak division (or has one or two really bad teams in it). Plus I don't understand why run differential is even being discussed regarding playoff matchups, it's such an irrelevant stat to bring up in this scenario.

how is it irrelevant? looking at who outscored the opposition by more though 162 is a pretty good way to get a good idea who the most powerful team is. a team is ultimately in lost control of sequencing than they are pure production.
 

Sephzilla

Herald of Stoptimus Crime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,493
how is it irrelevant?
Because the Dodgers aren't playing the Padres and the Brewers aren't playing the Mets.

A more direct way to see who's the more powerful team and who has the advantage in a best of 7 series would be to look at the actual head to head matchups, which would give the Dodgers the edge. Stuff like run differential is a decent indicator at predicting who will be in the playoffs and who's the strongest team going into the playoffs, but looking at it for analysis of a head to head matchup is pretty worthless.
 

17 Seconds

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,589
The Red Sox did go 16-3 against the Orioles. So the difference between them going .500 against the Orioles vs their actual record is most of the difference in their record compared to a team like the Astros. Or substitute the Orioles with the Blue Jays. That's also partly why I think the Dodgers being favored is garbage though. The Dodgers were 14-5 against the Padres. They had an easier division and the Brewers had the better record... partly in defiance of their run differential, but sometimes run differential is just indicative of better opponents. The Dodger-Padre run differential was 58. That's like 30% of their positive run differential! Add the 37 from the Rockies, and that's almost half their run differential from 25% of their games.

I'm sure the Red Sox would love it if their ability to beat the O's translated to a World Series, but that's probably not going to be the case.

any of these 4 teams could easily win the WS., but this is some extremely arbitrary cherry picking you're doing to dismiss 162 games worth of performance.
 

RC0101

Member
Oct 27, 2017
999
Dodgers record vs teams above .500 was 51-38. Brewers was 49-46.
Too bad that doesn't decide the series though.
 

Sephzilla

Herald of Stoptimus Crime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,493
man I dont understand why this thread is so incapable of understanding simple logical analysis. resetera is such a progressive place, but the mlb threads are always stuck in the 90s.
Logical analysis would be to do more direct head to head analysis of the two teams and how they match up directly against each other since this is a head to head best of 7 series. There does come a point where supplementary statistics do become pointless, run differential being one of them. I'm not trying to discredit the value of some of those bits of knowledge overall but I think in this scenario it's a pretty pointless thing to bring up.
 

17 Seconds

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,589
Logical analysis would be to do more direct head to head analysis of the two teams and how they match up directly against each other since this is a head to head best of 7 series. There does come a point where supplementary statistics do become pointless, run differential being one of them. I'm not trying to discredit the value of some of those bits of knowledge overall but I think in this scenario it's a pretty pointless thing to bring up.

you seriously think head to head analysis is a thing that matters in this sport? this is not basketball. baseball is a sport of individual at-bats that add up to produce a team result. head to head analysis in baseball basically just amounts to "which team is a better?"

i'm rooting for the brewers (kind of), but i think the dodgers have a better team, based on tons of evidence that is readily available. not only did they outscore the opposition by way more than the brewers duing the season, but they did it while facing ridiculous adversity with the injuries to seager/turner/kershaw early on. the brewers had a string if injuries early on, but it was mostly replacement type players who didn't really have an impact. the brewers were also extremely good/fortunate in 1-run games, which is a big part of their overall record. a lot of that is their dominant bullpen, but a lot of it is unsustaunable sequencing. this is based on decades of evidence that shows thing like this are ultimately an unsustainable skill.

again, none of this means shit if the lesser team plays better for like 6 games. that's baseball.
 

Angry Grimace

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,539
I get my analysis from baseball's biggest stars. Like Harold Reynolds. He tells it like it is.
John Smoltz told me baserunning is the best so obviously analytics are bullshit.

In reality short series are basically a crapshoot and the existing statistics from the regular season aren't going to give you a tremendous clue as to a series outcome.
 

Angry Grimace

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,539
I mean the Padres swept the season series with the Mariners but are obviously worse than them. And the Reds owned the Dodgers but nobody would argue the Reds are better than them. If you only play like 4-7 games anyone can win. Run differential is useful for plotting out wins over a statistically large sample. It doesn't have any bearing on whether Team A will beat Team B.

It's the same way I was flabbergasted when Dodgers fans would get really angry when they would lose literally any game to the Padres as though they should actually expect to run the table against every inferior team even though that is not how baseball has ever worked and why they play such a large number of games.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,243
NYC
Brewers have never won it. so I root hardest for them.
Dodgers haven't won in 30 years, they get second share of rooting energy.
Astros building a small dynasty in the heart of Texas would be good for baseball
the other team can eat a bag of dicks.
 

Pooh

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,849
The Hundred Acre Wood
I mean the Padres swept the season series with the Mariners but are obviously worse than them. And the Reds owned the Dodgers but nobody would argue the Reds are better than them. If you only play like 4-7 games anyone can win. Run differential is useful for plotting out wins over a statistically large sample. It doesn't have any bearing on whether Team A will beat Team B.

It's the same way I was flabbergasted when Dodgers fans would get really angry when they would lose literally any game to the Padres as though they should actually expect to run the table against every inferior team even though that is not how baseball has ever worked and why they play such a large number of games.

I don't mind when the Dodgers drop a game or two here and there to the Padres

When they get swept at home by the fucking Reds though, yeah, I'm angry about it lol
 

CrocM

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,587
The ratings disparity between LA/BOS and MIL/HOU is so large that there are sure to be shenanigans
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
We playing the drinking game where everyone downs one every time Smoltz implies baseball sucks? I have a fresh case and a few bottles. Should be enough to get me through the fourth.
 

Baked Pigeon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,087
Phoenix
I can't get the image of Dave Roberts saying "It turns today" out of my head, back in April/May when they were playing a series against the Dbacks and struggling.

Please eliminate them swiftly Brewers.