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Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
I'm confused as to the climate change discussion. My understanding is that while it's not clear if the overall number of hurricanes will increase because of global warming, the data regarding the relationship and likely increase of more intense hurricanes, with more rainfall, and bigger storm surges, due global warming/climate change is more clear.

I don't really get the push back to linking this storm to global warming in that context.

Hurricanes are essentially a phenomena of temperature differential (warm water mixed with atmospheric disturbance evaporates rapidly cools and forms convection circuits) . The warmer the water and surface temp the more potential energy in the hurricane (there's also issues about the increased amount of moisture the hurricane can carry). As the sea's become more laden with CO2 they can absorb more heat and the surface temps become higher. This doesn't necessarily mean more hurricanes or even individual hurricanes being stronger there's just a lot more potential devastating hurricane either terms of potential energy or the amount of moisture they'll dump.
 
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vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,752
Hmm, I've got a colleague working down in Charlotte, NC for the next couple of weeks. Looks like the hurricane might end up grazing that city?
 

Rowlf

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
645
In case anyone was wondering, the guy who was streaming earlier today, Brett Adair, made it safely to shelter and is okay.
 

HeySeuss

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,845
Ohio
Is it really necessary to point out that flying through a hurricane was the worst turbulence the pilot has ever experienced? I mean...lol
 

Arttemis

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
6,197
My dad left yesterday, but I'm fairly certain that his home will be a pile a rubble when he returns, tomorrow. Looking at the Twitter pictures from his neighborhood, it looks like it was wiped away from existence and replaced with a landfill.
 
Oct 29, 2017
13,470
Basically the whole state of GA is covered in the hurricane, based on the radar. A friend of mine south of Atlanta said they just lost power. It's been raining here NW of the perimeter for hours now. Supposed to be getting worse here very soon.

Stay safe, GAera.
 

Cyanity

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,345
This has been awful to watch all day. I just hope loss of life is minimal, somehow.

Did we ever get an update on the whereabouts of the two storm-chasers in the truck that got swept away by storm surge?
 

Musubi

Unshakable Resolve - Prophet of Truth
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
23,611
Good to hear Brett is okay that stream earlier today went really bad really quickly. I wonder if he will be able to recover his equipment/footage.
 

ffdgh

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,893
The Mushroom Kingdom
Camping out with the family. No power for about 5 hours so far in Georgia and a fallen limb or two but pretty good beyond that. Glad my 3ds and switch are charged for the occasion lol.
 

Castform

Banned
Jan 10, 2018
952
Florida, United States
I have a feeling Mexico Beach is gonna have seriously bad death tolls.

My mom grew up in Port Saint Joe, and we'd go to visit her parents there while I was growing up. We'd go to Mexico Beach for fun, and looking at all of these pictures its just all gone. Toucan's, El Governor, all of those houses.

I just can't imagine that it'll be able to recover from this. At least not anytime soon.
 

MrRob

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
6,671
Glad he's ok! I'm sure he will think twice before he goes out again.
Doubtful. This was the best high of his life. The guys that chase these storms are addicts. I'm not judging them or looking down on them by saying that imo they are doing something they enjoy and not putting anyone else besides other like them in danger so more power to them. Wish them all the best and enjoy the inside views their providing us.
 

Koo

Member
Dec 10, 2017
1,863
If he and his friend continue to do this in the future; I just hope they were able to get better experience from this. Next time know their limits, have better routes planned, be better prepared, etc. so they can continue to do what they love but also continue to live.

I was pretty freaked out watching them drive under downed power lines, and all the debris that was tossed at them and on the road before they finally decided to find a place to shelter down. Then seeing they literally had minutes before everything hit the fan was pretty frightening. They could have easily lost their lives if they hadn't ended up where they did by chance. Glad they decided to get in that house instead of continue on or stay in the truck.

I will be interested to know if that truck survived. Like I posted earlier it looked like it was inside a washing machine at one point.
 

Skunk

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,065
Did we get any word back if the Brett streamer guy checked in? Mexico Beach got annihilated, I really hope those guys made it through.

Edit: Never mind, just saw the above. Thank god they are ok.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,031
Seattle
If he and his friend continue to do this in the future; I just hope they were able to get better experience from this. Next time know their limits, have better routes planned, be better prepared, etc. so they can continue to do what they love but also continue to live.

I was pretty freaked out watching them drive under downed power lines, and all the debris that was tossed at them and on the road before they finally decided to find a place to shelter down. Then seeing they literally had minutes before everything hit the fan was pretty frightening. They could have easily lost their lives if they hadn't ended up where they did by chance. Glad they decided to get in that house instead of continue on or stay in the truck.

I will be interested to know if that truck survived. Like I posted earlier it looked like it was inside a washing machine at one point.

The thing was they had plans, and they knew what they had to do in different situations, unfortunately this is the danger with storm chasing, sometimes even with the best plans, nature will crush it all up And toss it away. There was s conversation with Brett and his handler on the other end, he told Brett 'The Surge shouldn't be that bad there, just get out'
 

geomon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,007
Miami, FL
The thing was they had plans, and they knew what they had to do in different situations, unfortunately this is the danger with storm chasing, sometimes even with the best plans, nature will crush it all up And toss it away. There was s conversation with Brett and his handler on the other end, he told Brett 'The Surge shouldn't be that bad there, just get out'
They never should have left Port St. Joe. Everything they did after they left the marina was very very stupid.
 

Slime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,970
That whole stretch with them being caught between all those downed power lines, to trying to get to shelter from the wind, to seeing the surge start to come in and hearing them scramble to get into that house was like a thousand times more nerve-wracking than any horror movie I've ever seen.
 
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uncelestial

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,060
San Francisco, CA, USA
User warned: inflammatory and condescending post.
As a climatologist, I am a little bugged by posts immediately attributing any major event to climate change. There are real, discernible trends that allow us to better understand what the effects of climate change are, but none of them come from looking at a single event. This hurricane happened because the gulf is very warm, and conditions were favorable for development. It's not unusual for mid-October. Shit happens. That's the magic of weather! And I promise plenty of us are studying the impacts of our changing climate on hurricane development. Right now the consensus is a bit up in the air. So while we try and sort all that out, just hold off on the "it's climate change!" talk for a bit. Yes, the climate is changing, but that doesn't mean every bad thing that happens in the weather world is a factor of that. And if it is, we'll be sure to let you know through 32,000 peer-reviewed articles!
Yeah, you are either not a climatologist or are an exceedingly out of touch one.

There is absolutely no debate about the effect of climate change on hurricanes.

Adjust_TS_Count.png

VSS08-Figure-WMO_new_ab.png

Hurr_major_USland_count_w_Stats.png

Obs_vs_zetac_hurr.png


Oh, and here's some light reading for you. Since you're "a climatologist," I would probably start here before posting more embarrassing nonsense like, "the water is hot in October" (with absolutely no acknowledgement of why that is more and more true these days and how it is getting worse). Or, you know, just stop posting.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,686
Yeah, you are either not a climatologist or are an exceedingly out of touch one.

There is absolutely no debate about the effect of climate change on hurricanes.

Adjust_TS_Count.png

VSS08-Figure-WMO_new_ab.png

Hurr_major_USland_count_w_Stats.png

Obs_vs_zetac_hurr.png
In addition to the personal attack, condescending attitude, and unprofessionalism, posting a bunch of hurricane count graphs in response to the comment that a given SPECIFIC hurricane's behavior is not yet proven to be a direct result of climate change seems like a blatant misrepresentation or misinterpretation.

Even more than that, you responded to someone talking about how multiple hurricane events can help understand trends and behavior, and you posted a crapload of charts and links talking about what? How multiple hurricane events can help understand trends and behavior.
 

rjinaz

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
28,390
Phoenix
In addition to the personal attack, condescending attitude, and unprofessionalism, posting a bunch of hurricane count graphs in response to the comment that a given SPECIFIC hurricane's behavior is not yet proven to be a direct result of climate change seems like a blatant misrepresentation or misinterpretation.

Even more than that, you responded to someone talking about how multiple hurricane events can help understand trends and behavior, and you posted a crapload of charts and links talking about what? How multiple hurricane events can help understand trends and behavior.
Well to be fair, that's not all the post said. The post said there is no consensus about whether global warming is effecting hurricanes. It obviously is, and then they attributed the hurricane to warm October water. There is a lot of data out there about hurricanes and global warming and that post made it sound like research had just begun with no data out there, a shit ton of it was just shared here.

I agree though, that the attitude wasn't necessary.
 

uncelestial

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,060
San Francisco, CA, USA
In addition to the personal attack, condescending attitude, and unprofessionalism, posting a bunch of hurricane count graphs in response to the comment that a given SPECIFIC hurricane's behavior is not yet proven to be a direct result of climate change seems like a blatant misrepresentation or misinterpretation.

Even more than that, you responded to someone talking about how multiple hurricane events can help understand trends and behavior, and you posted a crapload of charts and links talking about what? How multiple hurricane events can help understand trends and behavior.
I stand by my post, and if anyone else wants to come in here and concern troll us while denying science they'll have me to deal with.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,686
Well to be fair, that's not all the post said. The post said there is no consensus about whether global warming is effecting hurricanes. It obviously is, and then they attributed the hurricane to warm October water. There is a lot of data out there about hurricanes and global warming and that post made it sound like research had just begun with no data out there, a shit ton of it was just shared here.

I agree though, that the attitude wasn't necessary.
If they're arguing that it's indeterminate whether climate change impacts hurricane development then I agree they're misinformed. I got the impression they intended the emphasis not to be drawing conclusions from a single event, however.

I stand by my post, and if anyone else wants to come in here and concern troll us while denying science they'll have me to deal with.
I'm not denying science -- I was both questioning your professionalism and your interpretation of the post, since you posted a bunch of things which agreed with one of their points while apparently missing the other one.
 

Rental

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,659
Wow must have been some big climate changes back in the day. 1930s still holding up after all these years. Your graphs don't really fit into the conversations that were going on....
 

DukeBlue

Banned
Nov 6, 2017
1,502
Wow must have been some big climate changes back in the day. 1930s still holding up after all these years. Your graphs don't really fit into the conversations that were going on....
Exactly. Hurricanes are seriously not good evidence of climate change because there are so many other meteorological parameters that factor into the formation and strength of a hurricane.
 

F34R

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,989
I'm not going to be able to sleep tonight. We are under a tornado watch until 7am, Orangeburg, SC. Already lost power once, assuming it was a limb, since it's back on after 10 mins.
 
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