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September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th

P-Switch

P-Switch

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MatPiscatella said:
Comparing calendar month sales across titles is by nature silly and too dependent on a number of variables that won't be apples:apples. I use these comparisons in the media notes because people like to talk about them and they get coverage, but yeah, they aren't the best.
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Well gee, you are the one who brought it up here :P
 

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Metalgearmiyamoto said:
Benji or Matt can answer this if they like:

Are the sales of the PS4 Pro due to existing users upgrading, New users coming into the eco-system or more of a 50/50 split to both?
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Don't know.

But if they are upgraders, the old PS4 finds its way to another user via gift or trade in, so the net is another user. It's not like the old boxes are getting thrown in the trash or the closet at this point.
 
P-Switch

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ethomaz said:
If I'm not wrong some component parts of the Pro is really scarce in the market...
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I'm willing to bet that the ps4 pro situation now is simply a cost vs reward decision.

There is no good reason for them to produce/ship as many ps4 pro product as they do ps4 slim product right now.

Your first reaction will be "why not?? There is clearly demand, they want to sell as many consoles as humanly possible, they are throwing away money at this point, etc etc etc"

But I would argue that it costs the company more money for every ps4 pro built and sold right now than slims, clearly. So producing fewer units right now saves them more money than producing more.

And what are they really risking losing out on right now for this decision? Mostly just Ps4 OG/slim owners upgrading to pro.

Ps4 Pros arent expanding their userbase ecosystem the same way ps4 slims are. A ps4 owner upgrading to pro isn't adding a potential psn subscriber.

Any newcomer coming to ps4 at this point, for the most part, were waiting for a better price point and larger library to jump in. They are most likely to do so with the slim than the pro.

It makes perfect business sense to keep ps4 pro shipments limited right now.

It reminds me of people who didn't understand why Sony didn't sell $199 ps4's for longer than that one week last year...think of all the hardware they would sell! Think of the demand! Think of the sales they are missing out on!

The simple answer is that it makes no sense to risk/lose profit just to sell more units. There has to be a compelling reason that adds revenue in some other way in order to produce more at a cost.

Metalgearmiyamoto said:
Are the sales of the PS4 Pro due to existing users upgrading, New users coming into the eco-system or more of a 50/50 split to both?
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Yep, I was typing my response as you asked this lol. I bet it's significant enough.
 
KillerMan91

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P-Switch said:
I'm willing to bet that the ps4 pro situation now is simply a cost vs reward decision.

There is no good reason for them to produce/ship as many ps4 pro product as they do ps4 slim product right now.

Your first reaction will be "why not?? There is clearly demand, they want to sell as many consoles as humanly possible, they are throwing away money at this point, etc etc etc"

But I would argue that it costs the company more money for every ps4 pro built and sold right now than slims, clearly. So producing fewer units right now saves them more money than producing more.

And what are they really risking losing out on right now for this decision? Mostly just Ps4 OG/slim owners upgrading to pro.

Ps4 Pros arent expanding their userbase ecosystem the same way ps4 slims are. A ps4 owner upgrading to pro isn't adding a potential psn subscriber.

Any newcomer coming to ps4 at this point, for the most part, were waiting for a better price point and larger library to jump in. They are most likely to do so with the slim than the pro.

It makes perfect business sense to keep ps4 pro shipments limited right now.

It reminds me of people who didn't understand why Sony didn't sell $199 ps4's for longer than that one week last year...think of all the hardware they would sell! Think of the demand! Think of the sales they are missing out on!

The simple answer is that it makes no sense to risk/lose profit just to sell more units. There has to be a compelling reason that adds revenue in some other way in order to produce more at a cost.



Yep, I was typing my response as you asked this lol. I bet it's significant enough.
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I frankly disagree. I think that Pro has higher profit margin per sold console than Slim. It has no extra memory (expensive) and pretty much the difference is just bigger chip and more cooling. I don't think those cost extra $100. It just like with separate CPUs and GPUs. Higher models have far better profit margins as the manufacturing is not that much more expensive than for entry chips but selling price is usually way higher.
 
Syysch

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ethomaz said:
If I'm not wrong some component parts of the Pro is really scarce in the market...
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P-Switch said:
It makes perfect business sense to keep ps4 pro shipments limited right now.
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Every time I've seen it brought up, someone eventually says it's because of some specific ceramic capacitor that the Pro uses (that are also in a bunch of smartphones and other electronics) that are suffering a shortage worldwide being what's been limiting the Pro supply for the past several months.
 
P-Switch

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KillerMan91 said:
I frankly disagree. I think that Pro has higher profit margin per sold console than Slim. It has no extra memory (expensive) and pretty much the difference is just bigger chip and more cooling. I don't think those cost extra $100. It just like with separate CPUs and GPUs. Higher models have far better profit margins as the manufacturing is not that much more expensive than for entry chips but selling price is usually way higher.
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If the profit margin was truly higher for the pro than the slim, you would be seeing just as many, if not more, ps4 pro shipped than slims

I don't see how you can argue otherwise.

Now, I'm willing to believe there is some component to the ps4 pro that the slim doesn't have that is causing production costs of pro's to be higher than they otherwise would right now...very likely.

But again, that's the same thing...the cost of production vs reward isn't great enough to bother right now.

They can expand their ecosystem with more profit my focusing on slim sales and limited pro sales

Syysch said:
Every time I've seen it brought up, someone eventually says it's because of some specific ceramic capacitor that the Pro uses (that are also in a bunch of smartphones and other electronics) that are suffering a shortage worldwide being what's been limiting the Pro supply for the past several months.
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The last time I read about this...it was the same capicitor used by many other products such as higher end iPhones and things like that.

We know there was no shortages of iPhones being shipped this year :P

Again, it probably came down to cost. Sony could have absolutely produced more ps4 pro's this year if they really thought the added costs to mass production was worth it.

They clearly didn't.

And I can understand that. Makes sense to me.
 
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Benji

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A lot of Pro sales are to consumers brand new to the PS4 ecosystem honestly

I mean lots of upgrades from OG systems too of course. But it's not a nominal amount of consumers that get Pro as their first PS4
 
Astandahl

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P-Switch said:
If the profit margin was truly higher for the pro than the slim, you would be seeing just as many, if not more, ps4 pro shipped than slims
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Demand for PS4 slim is higher due to lower price. Pro benefits are not enough ( in my opinion) to counter a 100 $ difference in this case. So it doesn't make sense to ship more PS4 Pro ( even if profit margins are higher ) and on top of that there were some issues with components and maybe Sony waited for the revision ( RDR 2 Bundle) .
 
Syysch

Syysch

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P-Switch said:
The last time I read about this...it was the same capicitor used by many other products such as higher end iPhones and things like that.

We know there was no shortages of iPhones being shipped this year :P

Again, it probably came down to cost. Sony could have absolutely produced more ps4 pro's this year if they really thought the added costs to mass production was worth it.

They clearly didn't.

And I can understand that. Makes sense to me.
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Well if it is a supply issue, you likely don't go around pissing Apple off. They're probably making tens of millions of iPhones where others are ordering for a scale in the hundreds of thousands, and Apple pulling out to approach a different vendor would hurt you a lot more than anyone else you could short.
 

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I'm not going to talk about shares or anything, but I will say the abnormally strong demand for both boxes this year is being driven by the iterative consoles.

Avg pricing is considerably higher this year than last, as are combined sales.
 

krlitros87

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MatPiscatella said:
I'm not going to talk about shares or anything, but I will say the abnormally strong demand for both boxes this year is being driven by the iterative consoles.

Avg pricing is considerably higher this year than last, as are combined sales.
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So, considering the rumors of a possible new and more powerfull switch, do you think this new console can have the same effect that the pro and the X for the ps4 and xboxone respectively?
 
P-Switch

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Benji said:
A lot of Pro sales are to consumers brand new to the PS4 ecosystem honestly
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By what measure are you basing this on?

This isn't to imply doubt on your part, just i really am interested in any substantiative data one way or other on this subject.

It's just such a unique difference this gen of home consoles than in the past.

Usually, after the first two years or so we see a home console userbase grow alongside with reduced prices and larger libraries. (Makes sense...the market is mostly driven by "casuals", they don't have the drive or need to pay premium price right away, they are willing to wait for a more opportunistic time)

People buying Pro's in the last 2 years...it wouldn't be that appealing to such people who already didn't find the ps4 appealing at $300-$400 those first 3 years (these would represent new customers to the ecosystem in its latter life cycle)

It seems to me the Pro would be most appealing to ps4 gamers looking to upgrade mid gen...exactly what the main priority of the upgrades were in the first place according to Sony...to keep gamers in the ecosystem (rather than they move on to pc or a better Xbox when looking for an upgrade to gaming)

The appeal of the pro are for the very kind of gamer who jumped into the ps4 those first 2 years...core gamers who don't mind paying relatively premium prices in order to get the games they want, in the best way, as soon as possible.

Of course, there are always outliers. There will be a segment of consumers who...for whatever reason...just didn't care about ps4 games for the last 5 years and suddenly want to jump in now...but instead of paying the cheapest price possible (like they normally would and were waiting for) they decide to pay the highest priced product ...sure, these things can happen.

Just don't see this as representing the majority of ps4 pro buyers. Not even a significant fraction, tbh
 
Benji

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P-Switch said:
You mean like polling data? When people buy a PS4 pro in the US they declare to the retailer whether or not they previously owned a ps4?
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I mean if you work in the industry in a sales capacity there is mountains of market research to parse through at any given time if one feels so inclined
 
Peek-a-boo!

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I'm just going to be fairly conservative-ish with my numbers after almost coming out on top of the predictions rankings last month. That was surprisingly exciting!

[PS4] 345K
[NSW] 246K
[XB1] 198K

I can see Spider-Man doing crazily well, but I am not so sure that it will give the hardware a boost quite like it did when Destiny was released back in September 2015, for example.

I could be totally wrong though, and the PlayStation 4 sweeps the month with ease.
 
slavesnyder

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Benji said:
I mean if you work in the industry in a sales capacity there is mountains of market research to parse through at any given time if one feels so inclined
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why should we trust corrupted people like you who are paid by the industry and fed by all kinds of manipulated statistics, only to obfuscate the unconvenient truth that the PS4 Pro is bought by people who intentionally wanted to buy an PS4 Pro and the shortage is artificially arranged by Sony itself because they created a money sink and now try to get rid of it. If you watch closely, there's a pattern here, somewhere at least, and I am happy and proud that people like P-Switch finally drag these shabby schemes into the public spotlight.
 
Toriko

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Benji said:
I mean if you work in the industry in a sales capacity there is mountains of market research to parse through at any given time if one feels so inclined
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Hey Benji not sure if you have already answered this but I know you mentioned that God of War's record is probably going down. Are you more confident that it has gone down and Spidey will have the best month in NPD for a Sony First Party game?
 
Zedark

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P-Switch Benji has shown over the past year (that's the period I've been reading what he was saying) that he has great insight into the US market. He was able to predict from the information he had that XB1 would, rather surprisingly for many, outsold PS4 last December. Other points of data have also panned out as he said it, for example being well behind last November, and Spider-Man quite possiblg breaking records. He has shown time and again that his insight into the market is correct and comprehensive, so you can rely on his musings.
 
P-Switch

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Zedark said:
P-Switch Benji has shown over the past year (that's the period I've been reading what he was saying) that he has great insight into the US market. He was able to predict from the information he had that XB1 would, rather surprisingly for many, outsold PS4 last December. Other points of data have also panned out as he said it, for example being well behind last November, and Spider-Man quite possiblg breaking records. He has shown time and again that his insight into the market is correct and comprehensive, so you can rely on his musings.
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Knowing data of general product sales is one thing

Knowing the personal history of product ownership of every individual consumer is another.

If there was an internal market research or survey that asked 100 ps4 pro purchasers in the US if they had previously owned a ps4 console...and they are statistically extrapolating that to a general % of the number of ps4 pro consumers entering into the ps4 ecosystem for the first time...ok, maybe. But I doubt there is such a thing.

Why would US retailers bother with that info? Why would they need that? That seems more something Sony would care about (if anyone)

Now, if there was internal market research data showing how many ps4 pros were sold this year vs ps4 slims...that seems more plausible to me.

Yet, whenever that question is brought up in NPD threads, both Matt and Benji and anyone else with access to retailer data claim to have little knowledge of those %...we always fall back to Sonys statement 6 months into the ps4 pro launch saying it's 20% of sales. No one "in the know" has ever claimed to know more.

But Benji is sure about this, that a significant portion of ps4 pro sales are to new customers entering the ps4 ecosystem for the very first time? That's not something you can determine looking at raw sales data from a 3rd party retailer POV. If it is by some random market research analysis company, I would sincerely like to know the methods used to determine such a thing. I'm very interested in this topic :)
 

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Just because you doubt something is a thing doesn't mean it's not a thing.

Retailers and data firms don't consult your gut before operating their businesses.
 
Lelouch0612

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Super Mario Party seem to be pushing the Joycons sales pretty hard.

I guess it wont be noticeable in the September NPD results but it really could in the October one.

Some retailers have noticed a 200% increase of the Joycons sales during SMP launch week.
 
Lelouch0612

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MatPiscatella said:
You have any links or is this just word on the street?
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https://www.resetera.com/posts/13595691/

Aside from popularity of software, Joy-Con peripheral equipment sales are about three times as much as regular weekly, etc
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I forgot to mention it is a big retailer (1200 stores) in Japan. I wonder whether it is the same in the US, but given how the Joycons rose on the Amazon bestsellers chart, it might be.
 
Sterok

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[PS4] 410K
[NSW] 320K
[XB1] 310K

Spidey number 2. Mario Party just misses top 5.
 
Saint-14

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This have been on my mind for a while, but is there any reason why NPD isn't doing weekly releases like MC and PAL charts? Why do the results also take so long?
 
OP
OP

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There used to be weekly releases way back. (Was it all the way in the 90s or just early 00s? Don't recall.) Think it might've been another company besides NPD doing it, though. Then NPD bought them, and it went to straight monthly reports. Monthly reports is industry standard for retail sales, though, so there's good reason to have games match that. Not sure if that standard was less founded back when there were weekly reports, but the current reasoning is probably to follow the standard retail calendar.
 

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Lelouch0612 said:
Super Mario Party seem to be pushing the Joycons sales pretty hard.

I guess it wont be noticeable in the September NPD results but it really could in the October one.

Some retailers have noticed a 200% increase of the Joycons sales during SMP launch week.
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Joycons are completely sold out on Amazon.it, Amazon.de and there are only 5 yellow joycons availble on Amazon.fr.

Super Mario Party is making some very sweet accessory money it seems.
 
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