Pretty much expecting a repeat of ASM2 (or MoS >>> BvS) to play out here now that Sony's gamble in Venom lucked out. The studio puts more money into producing a bigger sequel that sloppily starts/expands their cinematic universe, said sequel backfires with a worse film that doesn't make as much money as they wanted, back to square one.
And I'm sorry, but I'm personally skeptical that with Venom's success, Sony (or at least, Arad and Rothman in particular) will leave the Spider-Man deal with Marvel Studios intact; especially if/when they score another hit with Into the Spider-Verse later this year. Maybe they won't kill the existing deal in its entirety, but I won't be surprised if (more) executive meddling nonsense starts seeping in, now that they are able to have their cake and eat it at the same time.
Arad wouldn't have much say in this at all. Rothman would be the one who decides whether they stay or go, and Pascal is the go-between for Sony here.