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September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th

808s & Villainy

808s & Villainy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
42,700
gundamkyoukai said:
If i remember right it was that way for GOW month or close to it .
Don't see it happening but i expect PS4 to do very good.
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April was a dead month for everything, but the PS4 with God of War. In September Switch saw Dragonball FighterZ, Super Mario Party, NES Online (if the NES Classic is anything to go by) and the Xenoblade 2 DLC. Not to mention the Fortnite bundle and the XBO saw PUBG's official release. Not saying those are necessarily system sellers (PUBG and SMP could be), but they're popular to have helped those 2 have a fairly decent/good month too
 
gundamkyoukai

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,141
DriftingSpirit said:
Spider-Man is hitting a different part of the market than God of War. Not completely different, sure, but certainly not the exact same. Benji has also made it clear that Spider-Man was pushing units.

I don't know how much PS4 will sell for September either. I just don't think that part of your argument works.
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Yep i wonder how much spidey bundles they did .
 
P-Switch

P-Switch

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Member
Jul 15, 2018
966
Saint-14 said:
Benji already said Spider-Man is moving hardware.
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That's a really vague statement lol (I'm assuming he was more specific than that?)

Of course Spider-Man is moving hardware...I don't think anyone can argue otherwise. You can't sell that many software units at launch without it affecting hardware sales in some way...

The question is...affecting it by how much and compared to what.

DriftingSpirit said:
Spider-Man is hitting a different part of the market than God of War. Not completely different, sure, but certainly not the exact same. Benji has also made it clear that Spider-Man was pushing units.

I don't know how much PS4 will sell for September either. I just don't think that part of your argument works.
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I'm just trying to figure out what kind of new consumer we are talking about then.

If it isn't more broad like in my argument...then we are talking about a consumer who hasn't really been interested in ps4 games for the last 5 years, but who is specifically and mainly interested in Spider-Man IP stuff...who can now justify spending $300-$400 on a dedicated video game system who thought that was too expensive last month, last year, 3 years ago....and who can't wait another 2-3 months for a possibly cheaper investment....

Seems like a relatively small subset of consumers?

While I certainly think there are such consumers and they will provide a noticeable effect on ps4 sales in the US this September...I'm only arguing it probably won't be as much as people are theorizing.
 
slavesnyder

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,127
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
P-Switch said:
If it isn't more broad like in my argument...then we are talking about a consumer who hasn't really been interested in ps4 games for the last 5 years, but who is specifically and mainly interested in Spider-Man IP stuff...who can now justify spending $300-$400 on a dedicated video game system who thought that was too expensive last month, last year, 3 years ago....and who can't wait another 2-3 months for a possibly cheaper investment....

Seems like a relatively small subset of consumers?
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this is the question we are facing with ps4 and xbox one every single month now.
who are these people who suddenly buy this console and why? what are their motivations? are they on drugs? it's mysterious, it's unexplainable, it's a miracle.
 
DriftingSpirit

DriftingSpirit

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,904
P-Switch said:
I'm just trying to figure out what kind of new consumer we are talking about then.

If it isn't more broad like in my argument...then we are talking about a consumer who hasn't really been interested in ps4 games for the last 5 years, but who is specifically and mainly interested in Spider-Man IP stuff...who can now justify spending $300-$400 on a dedicated video game system who thought that was too expensive last month, last year, 3 years ago....and who can't wait another 2-3 months for a possibly cheaper investment....

Seems like a relatively small subset of consumers?

While I certainly think there are such consumers and they will provide a noticeable effect on ps4 sales in the US this September...I'm only arguing it probably won't be as much as people are theorizing.
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I don't think it is someone who was interested in the PS4 before as you describe. It is someone who never had PS4 on their radar or had minimal interest in it. Spider-Man aligns very well with that more casual market and I think it was the push for them.

I suppose that is fair. I'm just going more off how God of War overperformed as a system seller. It did so well that it was part of the reason why Sony had to adjust their PS4 estimates for the year. It wouldn't really make sense for Spidey to only provide a minor bump in comparison.
 
P-Switch

P-Switch

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Jul 15, 2018
966
slavesnyder said:
this is the question we are facing with ps4 and xbox one every single month now.
who are these people who suddenly buy this console and why? what are their motivations? are they on drugs? it's mysterious, it's unexplainable, it's a miracle.
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lol :P

Yes, I can accept the usual ~300k or so crazies to suddenly spend $300-$400 on a 4-5 year old console in September....but 450k?? that's a bridge too far.
 
Saint-14

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
P-Switch said:
That's a really vague statement lol (I'm assuming he was more specific than that?)

Of course Spider-Man is moving hardware...I don't think anyone can argue otherwise. You can't sell that many software units at launch without it affecting hardware sales in some way...

The question is...affecting it by how much and compared to what.
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I think it was something like it's having a strong effect, I just don't agree with your argument of people bought a PS4 for GoW are also interested in Spider-Man so it will have a weaker effect, if you release such a big game and it is received greatly then it will move units regardless if you had another one a few months ago.
 
P-Switch

P-Switch

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Jul 15, 2018
966
Saint-14 said:
I think it was something like it's having a strong effect, I just don't agree with your argument of people bought a PS4 for GoW are also interested in Spider-Man so it will have a weaker effect, if you release such a big game and it is received greatly then it will move units regardless if you had another one a few months ago.
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I'm saying that Spider-Man won't increase hardware sales by the same degree (or greater degree) as GoW increased April sales, despite Spider-Man sales being greater than GoW sales.

And I think there are variable reasons for that. (Which I tried to extrapolate)

And I do believe that a large portion of Spider-Man buyers also bought GoW, yes.
 
Saint-14

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
P-Switch said:
I'm saying that Spider-Man won't increase hardware sales by the same degree (or greater degree) as GoW increased April sales, despite Spider-Man sales being greater than GoW sales.

And I think there are variable reasons for that. (Which I tried to extrapolate)

And I do believe that a large portion of Spider-Man buyers also bought GoW, yes.
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How much did GoW affect hardware though? Do you look at last year's result and count anything over that because of GoW?

Also, what about people who bought a PS4 for Horizon, or UC4 or TLoU? Wouldn't those also have been interested in GoW?

Hell, what do you think the Switch will do this holiday with Smash and Pokémon releasing? Should we expect a big hardware bump or people who bought the Switch for Zelda and Mario are also interested in those two titles?
 
Elandyll

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,826
P-Switch said:
Well, you can look at it this way:

This August, the weekly average was only 4,000 more than last August.

If you bump this September similarly, you get ~320k.

So the question is how much of a bump you think Spider-Man has on hardware now given all the variables.

I do agree that ~330k is definitely more of a low end ballpark figure than the Max :P
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It's worse than that.

According to Welfare's numbers, the smallest increase ever between Aug and Sept for the PS4 has been 33%.
Seeing a 50k / week average in August, x5 weeks, with a 33% increase, get us 333k.
And that looks to be a pessimist prediction...
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
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Oct 25, 2017
2,119
I'm personally expecting whatever forecast I have to end up conservative, as has basically been the case all year.

VG hardware is the best performing category in all of NPD tracking this year (including everything from toys to prestige beauty to auto parts... we cover a ton of industries worth trillions).
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
5,915
For the past couple of years, I've predicted PS4 to sell under 5M YTD. Maybe next year!
 
P-Switch

P-Switch

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Jul 15, 2018
966
MatPiscatella said:
I'm personally expecting whatever forecast I have to end up conservative, as has basically been the case all year.
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Ah...so you expect the Switch to outsell all other console for the year by an even greater amount than you previously predicted! :D

VG hardware is the best performing category in all of NPD tracking this year (including everything from toys to prestige beauty to auto parts... we cover a ton of industries worth trillions).
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Last year, NPD totaled US sales revenue for videogaming (pc+console) at $14.59 billion. And it totaled toys sales at $20.7 billion (and npd only tracks 80% of the toy market, iirc)

I'm assuming you expect NPD tracked toy sales to again perform better than videogames by the end of the holidays though?
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,035
Zedark said:
Yeah, Super Mario Party has always looked like a big deal to me. I've seen people pass it off as a schedule filler, but it's a big game in its own right: not on Pokémon or Smash level, but well above the Kirby/FE tier.
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I see Mario party beating expectations. I think it's impact has been underestimated and Pokémon's may have been overestimated. I think people have been waiting for a good party game and the switch is perfect for that type of game.

ScopehJ said:
[NSW] 200k
[PS4] 450k
[XB1] 180K

PS4 took 60% market share in the UK for September, should be roughly the same in the US I think
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The switch from day 1 has been far stronger in the US than it has in the UK so I don't think the 2 markets can be compared like that. 200K would be pretty awful IMO for the switch this month.

I agree that the PS4 will be huge this month. Still hoping we see 500K but I think 400-450 is more realistic.
 
Pablo Mesa

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
ScopehJ said:
PS4 took 60% market share in the UK for September, should be roughly the same in the US I think
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wut.. how? no., hell, there is a running joke (for a reason) that UK is called Sonyland just for popular Sony is there. but it has zero co-relation to American market. this is as baseless as comparing Japan market (NintendoLand) to USA and claim Switch will demolish PS4 on USA just cause they are practically monopolizing Japan
 
Sonicfan059

Sonicfan059

Member
Mar 4, 2018
3,024
Pablo Mesa said:
wut.. how? no., hell, there is a running joke (for a reason) that UK is called Sonyland just for popular Sony is there. but it has zero co-relation to American market. this is as baseless as comparing Japan market (NintendoLand) to USA and claim Switch will demolish PS4 on USA just cause they are practically monopolizing Japan
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Uh you realize U.K. is MS's second strongest market right and it has often mirrored the US market? So quick that people forget that.
 
DriftingSpirit

DriftingSpirit

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,904
I thought the US/UK correlation was more for software anyway. It doesn't happen all the time but US software performance sometimes aligns with UK software performance if you adjust for their relative userbase.

I think Benji spoke on that once IIRC.
 
Jade1962

Jade1962

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
4,259
UK market has been called mini US for video games sales for years on this board and the previous. It's market most resembles the US one. I haven't noticed a great divergence.
 
Mbolibombo

Mbolibombo

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Oct 29, 2017
7,043
Jade1962 said:
UK market has been called mini US for video games sales for years on this board and the previous. It's market most resembles the US one. I haven't noticed a great divergence.
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In terms of the Xbox brand perhaps, UK the only major market outside of the US where it has a big share (or at least before this gen)..

When it comes to Nintendo US and the UK they are nothing a like.
 
Jade1962

Jade1962

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Oct 28, 2017
4,259
Mbolibombo said:
In terms of the Xbox brand perhaps, UK the only major market outside of the US where it has a big share (or at least before this gen)..

When it comes to Nintendo US and the UK they are nothing a like.
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They are closer to each other than I would say Japan and the US. The top 10 software charts are virtually identical. We don't have hardware sales for the UK since Switch launched so I can't speak on that but Switch seems to be selling well in the UK. I don't think it's so stark a difference we can't look at the UK for trends in predicting possible US sales.
 
KillerMan91

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
Pablo Mesa said:
wut.. how? no., hell, there is a running joke (for a reason) that UK is called Sonyland just for popular Sony is there. but it has zero co-relation to American market. this is as baseless as comparing Japan market (NintendoLand) to USA and claim Switch will demolish PS4 on USA just cause they are practically monopolizing Japan
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Sonyland where PS3 was distant third (unlike in all other European markets) and DS, Wii and X360 sold gangbusters (and X360 topped Wii just like in US).?
 
Mbolibombo

Mbolibombo

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Oct 29, 2017
7,043
Jade1962 said:
They are closer to each other than I would say Japan and the US. The top 10 software charts are virtually identical. We don't have hardware sales for the UK since Switch launched so I can't speak on that but Switch seems to be selling well in the UK. I don't think it's so stark a difference we can't look at the UK for trends in predicting possible US sales.
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Dont know much about 2018 numbers but we do have numbers for 2017.

We do know that the Switch managed to sell 700k units in the UK in 11 months though. Which is ok, but not fantastic by any means.

In terms of software 2017 PS4 had 50,2% of the market, Xbox 31,6% and the Switch a mere 7,5% this excluding digital and if we had numbers for that the numbers would very likely be even more skewed towards PS4 and Xbox.

I just dont see how the UK is in a good position to predict what happens in the US. These numbers certainly doesnt suggest so.
 
Sonicfan059

Sonicfan059

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Mar 4, 2018
3,024
Pablo Mesa said:
not even sure why are you bringing MS here, but still dont see where you are computing that UK sales mirror (or backwards) into USA sales.
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Because U.K. hasn't been Sonyland until recently it hasn't even been Sonyland half of this gen because it's never been a blowout AND it has always been said that U.K. is mini USA as far as gaming trends go. I'm not agreeing that it'll be 60% marketshare for Sony softwarewise in the US but it'll probably be dominant.
 
Jade1962

Jade1962

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
4,259
Mbolibombo said:
Dont know much about 2018 numbers but we do have numbers for 2017.

We do know that the Switch managed to sell 700k units in the UK in 11 months though. Which is ok, but not fantastic by any means.

In terms of software 2017 PS4 had 50,2% of the market, Xbox 31,6% and the Switch a mere 7,5% this excluding digital and if we had numbers for that the numbers would very likely be even more skewed towards PS4 and Xbox.

I just dont see how the UK is in a good position to predict what happens in the US. These numbers certainly doesnt suggest so.
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Do we have the software share in the US? I'd imagine that it would line up in the order with PS4 being lower and Switch being higher. Plus that is 2017 with switch only being out for 9 months. Switch software has been a staple in the UK this year. We'll find out soon enough but I don't imagine the UK September charts will be much different from the September NPD charts.

slavesnyder said:
that's a brave statement
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I live on the edge!
 
P-Switch

P-Switch

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Jul 15, 2018
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Kyser73 said:
Existing users upgrading to Pro.
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I agree that's happening at a good pace.

I mean, Sony wouldn't have had its best month ever this last April if it wasn't for the Pro upgrade version being available this gen

I'm of the opinion that most ps4 owners made that upgrade around the beginning of the year along with GoW...knowing Spider-Man and RDR2 was coming soon...rather than wait till the exact month Spider-Man launched and was perfectly fine playing GoW on very old hardware.

And if they didn't upgrade around GoW why not just wait 2 more months for a possible better deal on one?
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
Omnislayer said:
PS4] 405k
[NSW] 260K
[XB1] 185K
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Needs the leading bracket on PS4. Parser looks specifically for the PS4 entry, so it'd skip yours as-is. ;)

----

I'm thinking Sept-2018 with Spidey, Spidey-Pro, and pent up Pro demand from the last few months of shortages could be rivaling/surpassing White PS4+Destiny bundle from Sept-2014.
 
Benji

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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Unfortunately Pro shortages will continue to keep PS4 from achieving truly crazy results
 
rahzel

rahzel

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Oct 27, 2017
452
P-Switch said:
One could make an argument that new ps4 consumers buying a PS4 in 2018 for Spider-Man...were also interested in GoW

Also, one could argue that current ps4 gamers upgrading to ps4 Pro in 2018 for Spider-Man...were also interested in having Pro for GoW

So one could argue that much of the April increase in hardware sales were already consumers interested in Spider-Man. So the bump wouldn't be similar.

If a consumer waited this long to buy ps4 hardware, I would think many are willing to wait 2 more months for a reduced price version...but hey, I could be wrong about that :P

In any case, for Spider-Man to have a similar hardware increase in September as GoW had in April, we are looking at ~475k in sales for ps4 which I can't imagine happening at all.

I can't even seeing it get even close to 400k
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God of War and Spider-Man are very different games. Spider-Man is a huge iconic character that will draw very different gamers to PS4 than God of War.

Spider-Man also got a limited edition PS4 Pro which will attract a lot of Spider-Man fans. Existing owners as well as first time buyers jumped all over that bundle.

Sure it was a limited bundle, but I'm sure Sony made a decent amount for one of their biggest games of the year.

Not saying it will sell 475K, just providing counterpoints. I do think 400K or more is very possible though.
 
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P-Switch

P-Switch

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Jul 15, 2018
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rahzel said:
God of War and Spider-Man are very different games. Spider-Man is a huge iconic character that will draw very different gamers to PS4 than God of War.

Spider-Man also got a limited edition PS4 Pro which will attract a lot of Spider-Man fans. Existing owners as well as first time buyers jumped all over that bundle.

Sure it was a limited bundle, but I'm sure Sony made a decent amount for one of their biggest games of the year.

Not saying it will sell 475K, just providing counterpoints. I do think 400K or more is very possible though.
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Yes there will be many gamers who weren't interested in GoW (or any ps4 exclusive apparently) who WILL spend $300-$400 on a new console to have Spider-Man day one.

And yes, there are many ps4 gamers who might have waited for the Spider-Man special edition bundle to upgrade to a Pro.

And this will be reflected in September hardware sales being greater than the last 2 years September norm (~300k sales)

But even if it's ~400k, that still is a weaker bump to ps4 hardware in September than April was with GoW...despite Spider-man selling better at launch than GoW.

To explain why it isn't a much higher bump would be that gamers interested in hardware for Spider-Man already purchased it well before September. Or I'm sure are waiting till November.

But absolutely it's possible to have sold 400k+ ps4's this September! (I just would bet against it :P)
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
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Benji said:
Unfortunately Pro shortages will continue to keep PS4 from achieving truly crazy results
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I'm thinking we'll see the shortages end with the RDR2 bundle.

September 2014 is probably, massively, out of reach. That was the Halo for PS4 moment. Spider-Man will sell units but I think the PS4 at $299 is a bit much to truly reach those heights at this point in the life cycle.
 
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