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When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

  • H2 2019

    Votes: 638 14.1%
  • H1 2020

    Votes: 724 16.0%
  • H2 2020

    Votes: 2,813 62.2%
  • H1 2021

    Votes: 141 3.1%
  • H2 2021

    Votes: 208 4.6%

  • Total voters
    4,524
  • Poll closed .

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
4,576
It's not about you. This thread has just always struck me as so premature, and the 2019 talk has always stood out as pure fantasy for so many reasons, and even now when it's very clear 2019 isn't happening we've still got lots of people saying it's happening. lol


People still talk to other people in this industry. Even if they were working on early development kits we would be hearing things from sources that are reliable about that fact. We've heard nothing.

I don't know what to tell you. A number of devs have stated they are working on next-gen, we just had the next-gen HP video, insiders here have stated next-gen games have been in dev for a good while etc.

Matt has been very quiet since ResetERA started but has posted a lot of info about PS5 in summer 2017 at GAF. He (ridiculously) had to state he wasn't promising 2019 but it still isn't ruled out.

I do sort of see where you are coming from about being premature *if* the consoles are over 2 years away (or 3.5 years if you count from summer 2017!) but in a weird way that puts more weight in next year for me.
 

gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
5,331
You can launch almost any console in 2019 that you could in 2020, perhaps with just less supply. The supply detractors being yield, throughput, and component supply. You can't launch a 7nm+ console with HBM3 in 2019. You could in 2020 if the optimistic timelines right now hold. I'm of the belief that regardless when you launch, you commit to a price point and prepare to absorb the difference.
Each company has a limit as to what it is they are willing to absorb, and when they think they can make it back.
Each cent posted as loss in the books has to be settled/written off by another cent from profits.
 

Ozorov

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,983
I don't know what to tell you. A number of devs have stated they are working on next-gen, we just had the next-gen HP video, insiders here have stated next-gen games have been in dev for a good while etc.

Matt has been very quiet since ResetERA started but has posted a lot of info about PS5 in summer 2017 at GAF. He (ridiculously) had to state he wasn't promising 2019 but it still isn't ruled out.

I do sort of see where you are coming from about being premature *if* the consoles are over 2 years away (or 3.5 years if you count from summer 2017!) but in a weird way that puts more weight in next year for me.
Who is Matt?
 
Feb 8, 2018
2,570
Yeah, fall 2020 is so far away and seems totally unrealistic to me at this point.

I stay on team 2020 and If they plan mid-gen upgrades they'll likely be released in 2023.

Althought I own a PS4pro I kinda hope everyone gets the exact same console next-gen (apart from external redesings).
 
Last edited:

Ozorov

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,983
There are a few theories and CERN are doing a few experiments. Nobody really knows, though...
Maybe the Alienz know. Seems like 2019 was the plan for PS5 but he aint promising it. I hope its Q4 2020 so I can save up dem Moniez. Or if PS5 Q4 2019 and NextBox Q4 2020 is also fine. But not at the same time buhuhuuh :'(
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,914
Maryland
Each company has a limit as to what it is they are willing to absorb, and when they think they can make it back.
Each cent posted as loss in the books has to be settled/written off by another cent from profits.
Through the sales of accessories, digital items, and subscriptions, console manufacturers are better positioned to offset hardware losses than ever before.
 

Deleted member 36493

User requested account closure
Member
Dec 19, 2017
4,982
If PS5 really is 2020 then we've basically known most of Sony's lineup for more than half of the generation. GoW, Days Gone, Death Stranding, Spider-Man, TLOU: Part II were all revealed in 2016. 3 of those games are releasing in 2019+ and two of those could possibly be 2020. For a 7-year generation, we've known about almost their entire lineup just 3 years in and I find that a little bit ridiculous. Sony needs to be better at pacing announcements next-gen.
 

FSavage

Member
Oct 30, 2017
562
Through the sales of accessories, digital items, and subscriptions, console manufacturers are better positioned to offset hardware losses than ever before.

Exactly what Kodera told Sony investors regarding new moving to a new gen earlier this year (or was it late last year? Seems like I'm getting old lol).
 

Aokiji

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,265
Los Angeles
They're not releasing the PS5 in Q1/2 2020 for the simple fact it would have to be announced long before Christmas & that would shatter the 2019 holiday sales projections of the PS4. They'll announce it early in the year after holiday spending & release it in the fall before the holiday season. They moved to that time for a reason last 2 gens
 

BradGrenz

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,507
"Comfortably" depends on what games you want to stream and in which quality and fps. I mean, you can have also more than one card in one server but the ratio of customers per gpu being 4-8 is very optimistic in my opinion.

Your original claim was that it wasn't possible at all. I was simply pointing out the technology exists. That card in particular is a dual GPU configuration. 8 users would be 4GB of VRAM each and since we're talking about 1080p streaming 2.5-5TF per user would work well for many games.
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
If PS5 really is 2020 then we've basically known most of Sony's lineup for more than half of the generation. GoW, Days Gone, Death Stranding, Spider-Man, TLOU: Part II were all revealed in 2016. 3 of those games are releasing in 2019+ and two of those could possibly be 2020. For a 7-year generation, we've known about almost their entire lineup just 3 years in and I find that a little bit ridiculous. Sony needs to be better at pacing announcements next-gen.

ehhh, they have had the mind share a CRAZY amount software wise this gen, people even utter sony software in the breath as Nintendo now a days. We know EVERY gen (including portable) you will have a smash, kart, mario, Zelda, kirby and other stuff i'm probably forgetting. Knowing the game is coming doesn't actually hurt anything. And quite frankly, it's actually best from a consumers point of view to just have everyone lay out their cards. In a hypothetical world you could have microsoft and Sony just lay out ALL the games planned for a gen, and from that you would be able to make a more informed decision than what we currently have to work on. I garauntee you that Sony revealing all those games so early locked people into buying a ps4 if not right away atleast eventually
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,914
Maryland
If PS5 really is 2020 then we've basically known most of Sony's lineup for more than half of the generation. GoW, Days Gone, Death Stranding, Spider-Man, TLOU: Part II were all revealed in 2016. 3 of those games are releasing in 2019+ and two of those could possibly be 2020. For a 7-year generation, we've known about almost their entire lineup just 3 years in and I find that a little bit ridiculous. Sony needs to be better at pacing announcements next-gen.
AAA games take 3-5 years to create these days. That's not surprising. The alternative would be to announce them later, but that doesn't change the development cycle.
 
Jul 6, 2018
174
Those numbers are a pipe dream. 20M in a year, of which 75% pay a $20 monthly subscription? And the other 25% a $90 yearly one? So 100% have to pay extra? Tha tdoesn't make any sense.

Only the real hardcore will pay $20 a month, and a $99 machine is a casual's machine.

Not 20 million in one year, just 20 million. I was only referring to the first 12-15 months of ownership, not on the market. You aren't selling even 2 million at launch, but within a year it could be 10 million if you're optimistic. It scales up or down quite a bit. Margins should be almost as high at 10 million as at 20 million. Should still be profitable at $14.99, maybe even $9.99, but that's where Gamepass is already at without streaming.


Damn just saw the HP leak.

Ok so if it's 2020, and its a current gen game, then next gen can't launch in 2019, but if it's a 2020 game and it's next gen then next gen can launch in 2019 FY no problem, giving time for the install base to grow.

Also if it's a H1 2020 game then next gen has to launch before or alongside that.

People wanted leaks and leaks are coming! So what events are coming?
PGW at the end of October, XO 18 beginning of November and TGA beginning of December...anything else?

I think we'll get plenty of news+leaks before the end of the year, and specially after Black Friday

GTA V came out on on the PS3 and 360 two months before the PS4 and Xbox One launched.

It didn't come to next-gen consoles until 14 months later, one year after the PS4 and Xbox One launched.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if WB tried the same thing launching on PS4 and Xbox One in September 2020 two months before Scarlett and PS5 drop.

...then try to get everyone to double dip a year later. An open world Harry Potter with a 90+ metacritic score could sell GTA V numbers that way.

Of course I'm skeptical the game will be that good, but there's no way in hell this AAA Harry Potter game will be next gen exclusive. The Harry Potter fan base is massive and if the game is great it could move way more copies than next-gen install bases will permit.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
What about the 2019 reveal folks

I still think that's happening but that isnt inside info or anything. I just dont think they are waiting that long to show it mostly because I dont think 3rd parties want to wait that long to start marketing their next gen titles
 

Kyoufu

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,582
I still think that's happening but that isnt inside info or anything. I just dont think they are waiting that long to show it mostly because I dont think 3rd parties want to wait that long to start marketing their next gen titles

Yeah, I can't imagine Bethesda going into E3 2019 without a Starfield reveal.

Then again I don't think Sony would want to reveal their console a year out. Hmmm.
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
Yeah, I can't imagine Bethesda going into E3 2019 without a Starfield reveal.

Then again I don't think Sony would want to reveal their console a year out. Hmmm.
The thing with Bethesda, is that their games are NOT bound to gaming consoles. They are entirely able to simply reveal the PC version of the game first with or without the dev kits of the next gen machines.
 

Deleted member 36493

User requested account closure
Member
Dec 19, 2017
4,982
Yeah, I can't imagine Bethesda going into E3 2019 without a Starfield reveal.

Then again I don't think Sony would want to reveal their console a year out. Hmmm.
Yeah but Benji hasn't ruled out Spring 2020. E3 2019 to say March 2020 is a pretty comfortable reveal to launch period and I think that's about the length it was for PS4 (February-November)
 

bsigg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,562
Yeah, I can't imagine Bethesda going into E3 2019 without a Starfield reveal.

Then again I don't think Sony would want to reveal their console a year out. Hmmm.

With Bethesda's relationship with Microsoft, I would anticipate the Bethesda E3 show to reveal it and Microsoft's presser to have a little bit about it like Fallout 76 this year.

That's assuming Starfield is a 2020 game.
 

TiG

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
809
2019 folks I really do admire your commitment

But its probably time to let it go

The dream is dead :(

Either way next gen games are going to be shown next E3 whether console manufacturers are ready to show or not.

I guess itll just be a Watch Dogs / Star Wars 1313 situation but even more widespread. Publishers aren't going to wait until months before launch to start marketing their products

But this is cool. I don't want to wait till Early-Mid 2020 to get look at next generation.
 

Expy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,866
Still on late 2019 early 2020.

Late 2020 is too far away there will be too much of a void.
 

Gemüsepizza

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,541
Meh, 2020 would be really disappointing. PS4 Pro is already struggling with games, AC: Odyssey's dynamic res goes down to 1080p in demanding scenes, there are uneven frame times and problems with texture loading. And to wait 2 years for next-gen which might again be limited to 30fps?
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
And to be transparent and honest upfront I know almost nothing about the next Xbox

Like, no one is really talking about it. So pretty much what you know, I know as of now

I think this jives with, to me with what we know, the general notion that MS was going to arrive later than Sony in the market, due to their timing being off.

Even the MS reveal about next gen hardware at E3 struck me the same way. They revealed it earlier than Sony (has yet to), but like the Scorpio/Pro, MS came out later.
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
ehhh, they have had the mind share a CRAZY amount software wise this gen, people even utter sony software in the breath as Nintendo now a days. We know EVERY gen (including portable) you will have a smash, kart, mario, Zelda, kirby and other stuff i'm probably forgetting. Knowing the game is coming doesn't actually hurt anything. And quite frankly, it's actually best from a consumers point of view to just have everyone lay out their cards. In a hypothetical world you could have microsoft and Sony just lay out ALL the games planned for a gen, and from that you would be able to make a more informed decision than what we currently have to work on. I garauntee you that Sony revealing all those games so early locked people into buying a ps4 if not right away atleast eventually
That reminds me of the original Atari game system, with the back of the box showing the games that are suppose to come out for it. Many of the games end up never being made, but the idea is that the console manufacturer wanted to show the future titles to potential buyers.

Sony really has no reason to hide upcoming games from the consumer. Really, the only reason they are silent now is to wait for PS5 to be officially announced.
 

Evangelista

Using an alt account to circumvent a ban
Banned
Aug 21, 2018
708
2020 is the right spot. We have so many great games coming next year.
20XX gpus doesn't have enough power for next gen games on PC.

So 2020 is the sweet spot for next gen both consoles and PC.
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
That reminds me of the original Atari game system, with the back of the box showing the games that are suppose to come out for it. Many of the games end up never being made, but the idea is that the console manufacturer wanted to show the future titles to potential buyers.

Sony really has no reason to hide upcoming games from the consumer. Really, the only reason they are silent now is to wait for PS5 to be officially announced.

If anything it shows confidence to debut a game very early. Its like "sure, go ahead, dissect the early footage and tell us how it will suck or how you're concerned about it" *slaps god of war in your face*
 

Deleted member 36493

User requested account closure
Member
Dec 19, 2017
4,982
Thinking about it, we already know a decent amount of next-gen games:

ES6
Starfield
Avatar Project (Ubisoft)
FFVII:R
Harry Potter
Avengers
Splinter Cell?
Borderlands 3?

Also, Respawn's Star Wars game (Jedi Fallen Order) is definitely next-gen. If all they have in a 2018 is a verbal announcement without even a logo, I doubt they're further along than even the Harry Potter game.
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
Ok. Thanks.

However, 2020 Q1 or Q4?
I am not sure why Sony would want to do Q1. They CAN, but there is no reason to. Yes, Switch did fine with Q1, but Sony has no reason to follow Nintendo.

The fact is a large number of ERA posters want next gen ASAP, they would buy it today if they could. And the only reason Q1 is in discussion, is that those who resigned to the 2020 year is now trying to push for the belief that they can get it ever so slightly earlier.

Other than the silly situation with how PS4 got delayed half a year for the Japanese launch, Sony was likely extremely satisfied with how PS4 was revealed and released. Replicating that formula for PS5 would be the conservative thing to do, other than making sure this time, they actually do a simultaneous world wide release.
 

Le Dude

Member
May 16, 2018
4,709
USA
Also, Respawn's Star Wars game (Jedi Fallen Order) is definitely next-gen. If all they have in a 2018 is a verbal announcement without even a logo, I doubt they're further along than even the Harry Potter game.

Yeah, people keep overlooking Jedi: Fallen Order when talking about next gen games. They didn't even mention its platforms or anything like that and PS4/Xbox One logos are completely absent from the website as well. I think it's highly likely they're targeting next-gen. If it was current gen they could easily of at least thrown some screenshots or something out there.

My guess would be Visceral's game was targeting this gen before it was cancelled. Since it was cancelled they couldn't show it off this E3, so they threw in the announcement of Jedi Fallen Order, but they're not able to show anything concrete from it because they don't want to show off a next-gen game before next-gen is announced.

Beyond Good and Evil 2 is another one with no confirmed platforms, and it's looking like it won't be out until after 2019. But with how early it was announced it'll probably be cross-generational though.