NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware

Lelouch0612 · Sep 20, 2018

Liabe Brave said:
The Switch is a portable, so it makes sense to include GBA. But in any case, as I said above, the release timing will mean launch-aligned comparisons flip-flop from "nearly the best ever" to "around fifth all-time". Calendar-aligned monthly comparisons are thus probably more informative. By those, Switch is doing very well, but not "easily hit 2.5m in December, no sweat!" well.

I agree with that. 2.5m is a huge number and will depend on a lot of factors. It is faar from a lock.

However, I believe that the system should do 2m+ given its first December numbers (1.5m), its Holidays line-up (Smash & Pokemon + Mario Party) and the bundles it'll have (Fortnite, Pokemon, Smash).

thuway · Sep 20, 2018

Man I'm scared for PS4 sales if Red Dead is as lit as I think it will be.

That and a God of War + Horizon bundled Pro will just destroy everything.

slavesnyder · Sep 21, 2018

the confusion about whether the switch is a console or a portable is annoying, yet quite common with hybrid products.
for example i still remember the dogmatic debates among analysts, industry veterans and the npd if Head & Shoulders should be counted as care product for heads or for shoulders.

John Harker · Sep 21, 2018

slavesnyder said:
the confusion about whether the switch is a console or a portable is annoying, yet quite common with hybrid products.
for example i still remember the dogmatic debates among analysts and industry veterans if Head & Shoulders should be counted as care product for heads or for shoulders.

It's simple really.
You can play it portable, it's a portable gaming device. Very black and white.

The test is marketing strategy, designed to influence perception because research shows consumers are not willing to pay above a certain entry point for a portable device. So, it's positioned as a console and advertised as such.

Switches current successes is a fair testament to a well executed and effective strategy and subsequent campaign.

John Harker · Sep 21, 2018

John Harker said:
It's simple really.
You can play it portable, it's a portable gaming device. Very black and white.

The rest is a simple marketing strategy, designed to influence perception because research shows consumers are not willing to pay above a certain entry point for a portable device. So, it's positioned as a console and advertised as such to bring product perception into the more premium price points the market is more willing to accept for "console gaming devices."

Switches current successes is a fair testament to a well executed and effective strategy and subsequent campaign.

BubblegumNemesis · Sep 21, 2018

BladeRunner2099 said:
Kind of crazy to see an NPD thread at JUST 10 pages. Guess bad news sells more, threads back in the Gaf days and even early on here used to go to 50-100 pages.

Happy to see good numbers for all of them though.

Console wars have quieted down a bit TBH. Every fan is "kinda" happy. XBox fans have plenty to cheer about (Best hardware/BC/GP/...), PS4 has plenty to be happy about (best selling/great exclusives/VR/...) and Switch is doing great as well (fantastic handheld/selling like mad/great games/...).

It is a great time to be a console gamer ;)

slavesnyder · Sep 21, 2018

John Harker said:
It's simple really.
You can play it portable, it's a portable gaming device. Very black and white.

The test is marketing strategy, designed to influence perception because research shows consumers are not willing to pay above a certain entry point for a portable device. So, it's positioned as a console and advertised as such.

Switches current successes is a fair testament to a well executed and effective strategy and subsequent campaign.

i just think it's both and that's actually the point. and if we count it here or there just to get something we can compare (because humans just love to compare stuff and put it into categories) - let them.
i have no idea how SUVs had been counted at the beginning, but i can imagine the category was created after people recognized that it's not only a mishmash, but a new branch of cars that will stay among us and will even expand.

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 21, 2018

Strong disagree on this point.

The distinction between consoles and portables was intended to provide context for a different categorization of content. 10 years ago the kinds of games available on consoles and portables was very different, they had far different audiences, play patterns and pricing and well.

The Switch plays the exact same kind of content the ps4 and xone do. It caters to the same audience, same pricing and offers a similar play pattern with the additional option of mobility. To take two pieces of hardware that plays the same content, had a similar audience and pricing structure, and bucket them separately just because one has a screen and the others dont is not reasonable.

If anything, we should remove the portable/console splitting in public releases as portables are no longer all that relevant and having the seperation called out is no longer meaningful.

Philly Cheesesteak · Sep 21, 2018

I'm curious to see how Sony will be approaching this holiday season. Didn't they predict they would sell less this fiscal year as well as be down in revenue as well? Methinks that's R&D for PS5 starting to ramp up.

Eolz · Sep 21, 2018

I'm not sure separating handhelds and home consoles was ever really meaningful to be honest.
Always made one appear like some inferior version, or made some people misunderstand why some games were on a format but not another.

Skittzo · Sep 21, 2018

slavesnyder said:
the confusion about whether the switch is a console or a portable is annoying, yet quite common with hybrid products.
for example i still remember the dogmatic debates among analysts, industry veterans and the npd if Head & Shoulders should be counted as care product for heads or for shoulders.

Reese's isn't a peanut butter product, it's a chocolate product.

But yeah it's a dumb argument. And like Mat says there really is no longer any need to split portables and home consoles into different categories. Portables have been getting closer and closer to playing full console games since the PSP and that distinction has now fully eroded with the Switch.

Vareon · Sep 21, 2018

Eolz said:
I'm not sure separating handhelds and home consoles was ever really meaningful to be honest.
Always made one appear like some inferior version, or made some people misunderstand why some games were on a format but not another.

It has uses when one is Super Nintendo and one is Game Boy, for example. Outside of Nintendo, publishers tend to have two versions of the same game title for consoles and portables. Maybe even only Nintendo treat handhelds and consoles as equal, with games like Metroid 2 or Link's Awakening.

KillerMan91 · Sep 21, 2018

Philly Cheesesteak said:
I'm curious to see how Sony will be approaching this holiday season. Didn't they predict they would sell less this fiscal year as well as be down in revenue as well? Methinks that's R&D for PS5 starting to ramp up.

Originally they did but they revised that from 1.9 trillion yen to 2.180 trillion yen after Q1 results. Last FY gaming division had revenue of 1.944 trillion yen. Unit forecast was revised from 16 to 17 million. Last FY they shipped 19 million. This is why I think there will not be as wide $199 deals as last year. Higher revenues with lower unit kinda indicates that.

Fuhgeddit · Sep 21, 2018

Wow Madden is still that popular, eh?

Mass Effect · Sep 21, 2018

Not a particularly exciting month, though it is cool to see MW2 jump up so much because of BC.

September onward should be more Interesting™ again.

HammerOfThor · Sep 21, 2018

Wow GTAV is still in the top 5 this long after release :0

Mass Effect · Sep 21, 2018

BladeRunner2099 said:
Kind of crazy to see an NPD thread at JUST 10 pages. Guess bad news sells more, threads back in the Gaf days and even early on here used to go to 50-100 pages.

Happy to see good numbers for all of them though.

Threads on GAF used to actually get numbers. That's one of the big reasons the NPD threads here (and on GAF in 2017) stopped getting as much activity.

And as mentioned, there aren't any real surprises here.

allan-bh · Sep 21, 2018

Fuhgeddit said:
Wow Madden is still that popular, eh?

Only game of americans favorite sport, so it's popular by default.

KillerMan91 · Sep 21, 2018

Mass Effect said:
Threads on GAF used to actually get numbers. That's one of the big reasons the NPD threads here (and on GAF in 2017) stopped getting as much activity.

And as mentioned, there aren't any real surprises here.

To be fair in 2015 when NPD threads were at their peak (October 2015 was the peak with 7.7k posts) we didn't get that much more data. Hardware was leaked (just like now) and sometimes creamsugar also shared some sw sales.

xMaximusx · Sep 21, 2018

Is there a website that tracks every month in a nice format besides just going and searching for a particular month & year? I'm curious when was the last time Xbox won a NPD

gundamkyoukai · Sep 21, 2018

KillerMan91 said:
Originally they did but they revised that from 1.9 trillion yen to 2.180 trillion yen after Q1 results. Last FY gaming division had revenue of 1.944 trillion yen. Unit forecast was revised from 16 to 17 million. Last FY they shipped 19 million. This is why I think there will not be as wide $199 deals as last year. Higher revenues with lower unit kinda indicates that.

I wonder if they going to change things again after spidey .
Hardware seem to be moving and spidey selling really good.

Slam Tilt · Sep 21, 2018

allan-bh said:
I'm curious about the next earnings release to see if they will keep the 20 million forecast.

Do you seriously expect Nintendo to lower their forecast? Or are you wondering if they'll raise it?

MatPiscatella said:
Not sure why anyone would anticipate any price drop or even temporary price promotion on Switch with both Pokemon and Smash coming.

Because it's not "on that level," whatever it is.

allan-bh · Sep 21, 2018

Slam Tilt said:
Do you seriously expect Nintendo to lower their forecast? Or are you wondering if they'll raise it?

I will not be surprised if they lower, but if any adjustment will be made, likely will be after Q3. I don't think they will concede now that 20 million will not happen.

slavesnyder · Sep 21, 2018

Mass Effect said:
Threads on GAF used to actually get numbers. That's one of the big reasons the NPD threads here (and on GAF in 2017) stopped getting as much activity.

And as mentioned, there aren't any real surprises here.

it's less fun to discuss things now that everyone's a winner.

gundamkyoukai · Sep 21, 2018

slavesnyder said:
it's less fun to discuss things now that everyone's a winner.

Plus there is no come back factor also .

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 21, 2018

slavesnyder said:
it's less fun to discuss things now that everyone's a winner.

VR is treading water, Interactive Gaming Toys have cratered, uhhhh... I mean some stuff isn't doing so hot but generally these threads are only concerned with hardware, which doesn't really make as much sense anymore since each device is doing different things rather than all trying to be the same thing like the PS2/XBX/NGC era.

Skittzo · Sep 21, 2018

Speaking of interactive gaming toys I'm really curious to see how Starlink does. The toys are seemingly not necessary at all and it's probably going to sell more off the back of Star Fox than it would have off of toys to life.

It'll be interesting to see how the game itself does on various platforms and then on top of that how well the figurines sell.

OfficerRaichu15 · Sep 21, 2018

Yeah Madden puts these numbers up cause it's basically a monopoly lol.

KillerMan91 · Sep 21, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
VR is treading water, Interactive Gaming Toys have cratered, uhhhh... I mean some stuff isn't doing so hot but generally these threads are only concerned with hardware, which doesn't really make as much sense anymore since each device is doing different things rather than all trying to be the same thing like the PS2/XBX/NGC era.

Well if we would get more concrete numbers the discussion would be probably more broad. Now hardware is the only thing we get trough leaks and so it dominates the discussion more than normally. Of course I know you can't share more than you share so I am not blaming anyone. Situation is what it's.

v_iHuGi · Sep 21, 2018

September results will be great to see.

Kill3r7 · Sep 21, 2018

v_iHuGi said:
September results will be great to see.

I imagine the Top 5 for games will be:
1. Spider-Man
2. NBA2K19
3. Madden 19
4. FIFA19
5. Shadow of Tomb Raider

EDIT: Maybe D2F knocks FIFA down to 5 and SOTR out of the top 5.

Jon Carter · Sep 21, 2018

BladeRunner2099 said:
Kind of crazy to see an NPD thread at JUST 10 pages. Guess bad news sells more, threads back in the Gaf days and even early on here used to go to 50-100 pages.

Happy to see good numbers for all of them though.

Note that numbers used to be leaked in NPD threads, whereas now, when they are leaked, it's in the Predictions threads, so the conversation is split into two and most people don't know to check the Predictions threads for leaks, they wait for the NPD threads a week later and see no numbers.

Also, creamsugar used to leak numbers for tons of games. Nowadays we get next to no info. Even the Big 3 aren't releasing PRs like they used to.

unfashionable · Sep 21, 2018

slavesnyder said:
the confusion about whether the switch is a console or a portable is annoying, yet quite common with hybrid products.
for example i still remember the dogmatic debates among analysts, industry veterans and the npd if Head & Shoulders should be counted as care product for heads or for shoulders.

and...

"...knees and toes, knees and toes" (repeat)

slavesnyder · Sep 21, 2018

Kill3r7 said:
I imagine the Top 5 for games will be:
1. Spider-Man
2. NBA2K19
3. Madden 19
4. FIFA19
5. Shadow of Tomb Raider

EDIT: Maybe D2F knocks FIFA down to 5 and SOTR out of the top 5.

no gta5?

Kill3r7 · Sep 21, 2018

slavesnyder said:
no gta5?

Not this month, at least not based on revenue. I wonder if D2F will move enough units to be above Madden.

slavesnyder · Sep 21, 2018

Kill3r7 said:
Not this month, at least not based on revenue. I wonder if D2F will move enough units to be above Madden.

we've been seeing stranger things.
if spider man really pushed hardware, there's a law of nature that with every new console a copy of gta5 will be sold.

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 21, 2018

slavesnyder said:
we've been seeing stranger things.
if spider man really pushed hardware, there's a law of nature that with every new console a copy of gta5 will be sold.

True story.

Kill3r7 · Sep 21, 2018

slavesnyder said:
we've been seeing stranger things.
if spider man really pushed hardware, there's a law of nature that with every new console a copy of gta5 will be sold.

MatPiscatella said:
True story.

Lol, too true.

In all seriousness, Madden has not been lower than number 3 at any point this gen in the month of September. NBA2K19 is a lock at 2. Spidey should be 1. So that leaves two spots for FIFA, D2F, SOTR or GTAV.

WillySJ3 · Sep 21, 2018

Kill3r7 said:
I imagine the Top 5 for games will be:
1. Dragon Quest XI
2. Valkyria Chronicles 4
3. Fist of the North Star
4. Spider-Man
5. Shadow of Tomb Raider

Fixed that for you. No need to thanks me ;)

TechnicPuppet · Sep 21, 2018

BladeRunner2099 said:
Kind of crazy to see an NPD thread at JUST 10 pages. Guess bad news sells more, threads back in the Gaf days and even early on here used to go to 50-100 pages.

Happy to see good numbers for all of them though.

The weekly UK sales thread was on 20 odd pages because of Spiderman.

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 21, 2018

I mean yeah its August. September will be nuts. PS4 should have a historic month while Switch and Xone should also be very strong.

2018 has been a remarkable year. 2019 will be a much tougher year with negative comps and so I'm sure we will get back to DOOM posts which should make the threads bigger.

Kill3r7 · Sep 21, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
I mean yeah its August. September will be nuts. PS4 should have a historic month while Switch and Xone should also be very strong.

2018 has been a remarkable year. 2019 will be a much tougher year with negative comps and so I'm sure we will get back to DOOM posts which should make the threads bigger.

Not surprising considering DOOM

Eternal

is a 2019 release.

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 21, 2018

Ohyou.jpg

donny2112 · Sep 21, 2018

My thinking is that since 2008, sales are even more focused in Q4. While Sony/MS have shifted much of their Q4 sales to November via sales and the more core-focused market (buying on sale and early), Nintendo has maintained the traditional December focus with many Decembers still doubling November. Therefore, Switch should have more sales focused in December of Q4 than Sony/MS. (One of the reasons that comparing Nov+Dec for the three may make more sense in recent years.) My expectations are for PS4/XB1 to sell more than Switch in November, but for Switch to see a major increase in December, since this is the first December it's readily available (I think?). Not that I expect Wii performance, but Wii's first readily available December was in 2009, even though it could've been easily found on store shelves for 8 months of the year to that point. ($50 price cut at Wal-Mart didn't hurt, either!) There's just a type of mainstream consumer that only looks for systems in December, and I expect Switch to see amazing performance in large part to that group.

BlueManifest · Sep 21, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
I mean yeah its August. September will be nuts. PS4 should have a historic month while Switch and Xone should also be very strong.

2018 has been a remarkable year. 2019 will be a much tougher year with negative comps and so I'm sure we will get back to DOOM posts which should make the threads bigger.

Why is 2019 tough? What's changing in the next 6 months?

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 21, 2018

BlueManifest said:
Why is 2019 tough? What's changing in the next 6 months?

2019 holiday won't have a Rockstar release, and we'll most likely be post next gen next gen HW announcements.

Mezoly · Sep 21, 2018

No Fortnite to give a boost to early 2019 will be interesting. Although early 2019 look loaded but probably for Hardcore/Japanese fans only.

Skittzo · Sep 21, 2018

Kill3r7 said:
Not surprising considering DOOM

Eternal

is a 2019 release.

Not officially I thought. Has it actually been confirmed for 2019?

Kill3r7 · Sep 21, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
Not officially I thought. Has it actually been confirmed for 2019?

No confirmation yet but I would be surprised if it did not come out next year.

Skittzo · Sep 21, 2018

Kill3r7 said:
No confirmation yet but I would be surprised if it did not come out next year.

Right I agree, was just wondering if I missed an official confirmation.

NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware

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