Spider-man is going to have concerning levels of gloaters and a gloated level of concern.
It's going to simultaneously be a failure for some reason and it will be a beacon of hope for another.
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NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
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Spider-man is going to have concerning levels of gloaters and a gloated level of concern.
It's going to simultaneously be a failure for some reason and it will be a beacon of hope for another.
I predict lots of people mocking that one guy who said Spidey is niche.
Not that you needed Marvel's Spider-Man sales numbers to prove that notion wrong.
Not that you needed Marvel's Spider-Man sales numbers to prove that notion wrong.
Luigis mansion, monkeyball, viewtiful joe, REmake, zelda ww, RE0, eternal darkness, wave race just to name a few
Sorry for the late reply. Anyway, i think PS4 will be about flat YOY this December (so in the 1.1 million range). There will be more stock but less demand this year.
Switch…………. it's gonna sell 2.5 million this December. Those bundles, Smash and Pokemon are gonna sell some massive numbers, and i would not esclude a 250$ pricedrop for December, i don't think is gonna happen but Nintendo looks more aggressive than usual this time. They really want to surpass their 20 million forecast.
So yes if PS4 has a < 1 million lead over Switch after November, Switch will easy sell more in 2018.
I doubt there will be less demand. It's home of the best exclusives this year with Red Dead also being on it which will be the biggest multiplatform.
A 2.5m December has been done very rarely, and even some of the highest-selling consoles of all time only managed it once. Switch has not been selling anything like the devices that did it before, especially like the years in which they did.
The software will be huge, no doubt, and it'll raise hardware sales. But what you're saying is that they'll put Switch in an entirely different hardware bracket, when a year with Breath of the Wild and Splatoon 2 and Mario Kart and Odyssey couldn't do it. I have serious doubts about this (though of course it's not literally impossible).
Those were also not brand new releases. Nintendo got smash Bros releasing for that month which gives it a strong chance. It sold 1.5 Million with XC2 as it's only new release. Imagine when smash comes
Switch sold 1.5M in its first December. No deals, just selling purely on interest in the device and software from months prior.
The second will have Fortnite, Pokemon and Smash, along with all of Switch's evergreen titles that continue to sell, and that's not even factoring in any sort of price promotion this holiday. I'm thinking ~2M isn't out of the question.
2.5M is like the absolute best case scenario though. If Switch ever hits that it would most likely be next year with Animal Crossing, Gen 8 Pokemon, and a definite price drop.
The second will have Fortnite, Pokemon and Smash, along with all of Switch's evergreen titles that continue to sell, and that's not even factoring in any sort of price promotion this holiday. I'm thinking ~2M isn't out of the question.
2.5M is like the absolute best case scenario though. If Switch ever hits that it would most likely be next year with Animal Crossing, Gen 8 Pokemon, and a definite price drop.
I think he meant 1st party. Eternal Darkness I think can be agreed with but it was still an N64 transplant (same for Animal Crossing and Starfox Adventures). TWW was notoriously rushed just like Sunshine (2 dungeons cut, Triforce Quest padding, general lack of polish), Luigi's Mansion was a glorified tech demo and Wave Race was seen as a worse game than it's N64 predecssor.
Kind of a pointless question. You could ask the same of every IP that hit the WiiU. Strength of IP can only do so much for undesirable hardware.
If the Switch could hit 1.5m last year on the back of Mario, while hitting some minor supply issues, it should be able to do more with multiple IPs of equal or greater impact.
It's also worthwhile to keep in mind that 1.5M was with some slight supply issues, which likely won't be happening this year.
I don't know about 2.5M but I can see it being a lot higher than last year.
Smash sells for the traditional Nintendo core crowd. How many of them don't has a Switch yet? Considering that install base didn't even hit 7 million in US yet, the potential for sell hardware seems big.
No doubt that december will be HUGE for Switch, but 2.5m is too much. Also the bundle will be launched in november.
No doubt that december will be HUGE for Switch, but 2.5m is too much. Also the bundle will be launched in november.
2.5 is high but 2 million is very reasonable.
Also a very good point.
Any numbers on the 3DS? Or is it insignificant enough that you can basically say the Switch is keeping portable (non-mobile) gaming alive?
Wasn't the Switch the fastest console in the US ever ? And only behind the GBA all platforms included ?
Switch didn't have a single blockbuster this year yet and is still selling at a good pace whereas 2017 already got Zelda, Mario Kart and Splatoon that went to sell over 1m in 2017. The only big game they had for the year was Odyssey, this year Switch got their two biggest games in November December (Pokemon and Smash).
There is no doubt that November/December will be significantly stronger this year for the system and the number of big bundles will help (Fortnite, Pokemon and Smash).
I am not sure about 2.5m at all, but 2m+ seem like a safe bet.
like they have done in every single sales thread since Spider-man released? nah, impossible.
To me Swtich's biggest game has already been released. Mario Kart has constantly been the top seller for Nintendo and even though the game was on Wii U so many people haven't played it's like new. I do see Smash and Pokemon as the next in line and they will do very well. I don't know if the Swtich will sell close to the levels of Wii this holiday season since so many of its userbase are hardcore gamer. Pokemon may be the key to bring more casuals to the ecosystem. I'm really hesitant to predict 2m or more but it'll do fine overall.
Yakuza didn't even make the Top 20. FFS. I mean, I wasn't particularly excited to buy it--there's been three since January of last year and they wanted to sell me the fourth. :P
2 million seems possible considering the good bundles and Smash+Pokemon combo.
With a $50 price cut and enough stock, anything can happen, but I don't think Nintendo will do that, so I can't imagine 2.5m at $299.
Your argument was invailidated already by Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.
You are pretty much in line with my thoughts. Stock shouldn't be a problem given their 20m forecast.
Then it'll depend on how aggressive they are. They should do a price-cut on the Smash/Pokemon bundles imo. They are making a ton of money thanks to software sales and now with the Online subscribtion service they really can cut the price and still be profitable.
Knowing Nintendo, would be unusual a price cut in a moment of high demand.
I'm curious about the next earnings release to see if they will keep the 20 million forecast.
Not sure why anyone would anticipate any price drop or even temporary price promotion on Switch with both Pokemon and Smash coming.
Because there are a lot of people that think Switch sales this year were too soft to meet expectation and that means Nintendo is desperate enough for a price drop. A lot of these same people overlap with the group of people that thinks Pokemon Let's Go won't sell and Smash Ultimate is a glorified port.
I would agree but the Mario Tennis/1-2 Switch bundle (50$ of savings) and the Fortnite bundle (10$ of ingame currency + exclusive skin) shows that they are not totally against discounted bundles.
We shall see.
I don't know if I'd anticipate it but it wouldn't surprise me all that much now that they have subscriptions to sell. Which can make up a bit of that lost revenue.
Nintendo has never had a subscription service, they might view things a bit differently now.
I was talking about a price reduction on a non-value added bundle. (So the Smash or Pokemon one)
Don't really know in which category it fits :p
As always, if anyone is interested Mat appears on our podcast monthly to discuss NPD results and the general state of the industry, and tonight is the night.
Sorry? Of the games I named, only Mario Kart wasn't new. And given how WiiU sold, it might as well have been.
Yes. But why wouldn't a lot of Smash fans also be Mario fans who already bought a Switch? Why wouldn't a lot of Smash fans buy the bundle when it becomes available in November? Etc.
The games will be huge, and the hardware number will be higher because of them. But demand is not purely additive, because of desire overlap (e.g. fans of multiple Nintendo games don't buy a Switch for each franchise they like). If it were, every holiday for every console would be massively bigger than the preceding one. As you know, what actually happens is they peak and then decline. And the height of those peaks has historically been tightly constrained.
Switch has a shot at 2.5m--huge software releases, it's a portable, increasing concentration of sales into the holidays, etc.--but to judge it an inevitable breeze unfairly downplays the number. If it happens it'll be an awesome achievement, not a deserved birthright.
No, there are multiple systems that sold faster than Switch, US and worldwide. Which ones depends on exactly how you compare, but generally it doesn't matter. Two other Nintendo handhelds are well above it, and will be for years at least (DS probably forever). That's not counting various home systems that are higher.
Where are you getting this from? DS didn't sell out of the gate, it took Mario Kart / Nintendogs / DS Lite for it to take off.
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Well for a while it was after last years holidays (in US and WW) because it hit well supplied holiday season faster than other successful handhelds/home consoles because of its launch date (aside from GBA that had also outside holiday launch date and so has been above Switch from the start as it had same benefit). But yeah average monthly sales of switch are not anywhere near GBA, PS2 or Wii (in US) and so it has fallen behind of those at least. Will get ahead for few months again this holiday season though (because of the same reason).
You're right, DS was 16.7m after 16.5 months, and Switch was at 19.7m after 16. I was thinking of 3DS, which was previously ahead of Switch but is now slightly behind (18.5m in 16+ months). So currently only one Nintendo handheld is above Switch (though DS will surely pass it in time).
Yes, because of the mismatch in launch dates the lead will ping-pong. The point is that averaged over time the Switch is doing very well, but not record-level well. Of course, this could change. It's still early enough in its life for a meaningful inflection point (though I don't personally see one on the horizon).
Fastest-selling console in the US at the 1-year mark, only behind the GBA all platforms included :
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/nintendo-switch-now-the-best-selling-console-ever-/1100-6457564/
You mentionned the DS, the DS shipped 5.11m units in the Americas in a little more than 16 months. The Switch shipped 7.81m units in the Americas in 16 months (ending June 30).
WW, the DS shipped 16,73m units in 16 months (but with a delayed EU launch) when the Switch shipped 19,67m. Next quarter, Switch will be over 21.27m and therefore still fastest than the DS. The DS should catch the Switch at the 28 months mark (DS at 40,29m).
no it doesn't
I don't have an opinion about 2.5m or care, but was just pointing that out.
The Switch is a portable, so it makes sense to include GBA. But in any case, as I said above, the release timing will mean launch-aligned comparisons flip-flop from "nearly the best ever" to "around fifth all-time". Calendar-aligned monthly comparisons are thus probably more informative. By those, Switch is doing very well, but not "easily hit 2.5m in December, no sweat!" well.
Physically, the Switch is a portable however NPD regards it as a home console. Just FYI.