NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware

Gotdatmoney · Sep 18, 2018

Mory Dunz said:
plus this.

But even units alone I still don't see it. Eshop has great sales but retail is still huge.

If it was units based I'm sure the launch of some bigger eshop games could sneak in there. It wouldn't look radically different though.

Braaier said:
Yikes! It bombed then. Guess Sega was releasing them too quickly. And ppl are burned out

It's a revenue based and the game didn't launch at full price. In a chart like this you can't infer much imo. Yakuza games aren't regularly pulling 100k openings (unless someone wants to show me otherwise). It could have performed perfectly fine in the 30-50k units range and we just wouldn't be able to tell

mrmickfran said:
So they're heavily frontloaded then. Ah well, better some sales than nothing

JRPGs must be inexpensive to produce cause otherwise I honestly dunno how these make money outside of like FF, DQ, KH, FE, Persona, Xenoblade and one offs like Ni No Kuni and Octopath.

Jawbreaker · Sep 18, 2018

September is going to be interesting.

Mory Dunz · Sep 18, 2018

Gotdatmoney said:
If it was units based I'm sure the launch of some bigger eshop games could sneak in there. It wouldn't look radically different though.

yeah, outside of launches, I don't think they would hit top 10.

unfashionable · Sep 18, 2018

Calamari41 said:
Hey Mat,

Will the copies of Smash Bros sold in the bundle "count" and be factored and released by you guys in November's report, or, since they're technically download codes, are you not allowed to factor those copies in?

It would be interesting to see the game's performance in the month before it even releases.

they wouldnt anyway since they are digital codes (NPD does not include digital for Nintendo)

it would be interesting if the bundle sales were provided though (ie sales per specific SKU eg smash bundle, pokemon bundle etc), maybe a loophole?

Dinjooh · Sep 18, 2018

Slam Tilt said:
One word: Pokémon
One word: Fortnite

All answers are valid.

One word: Super Mario Party!

...No-one? Just me then!

Calamari41 · Sep 18, 2018

unfashionable said:
they wouldnt anyway since they are digital codes (NPD does not include digital for Nintendo)

it would be interesting if the bundle sales were provided though (ie sales per specific SKU eg smash bundle, pokemon bundle etc), maybe a loophole?

Yeah, I would imagine that they'll be publishing the specific SKU number, which obviously will give subscribers the number of games sold.

I guess what my question boils down to is whether they track physical sales of download codes, or if those are treated the same as actual on-eshop purchases as far as what they are allowed to report goes.

RexNovis · Sep 18, 2018

Uhhh how exactly did Call of Duty Modern warfare two rank so high ghoul when it's not featured in the XB1 ranking at all? Is it excluded from ranking in the list or something?

night814 · Sep 18, 2018

Effect said:
What is allowing GTA V to keep selling like this? New people still buying it? Or are people getting banned left and right and constantly rebuying it?

It's finally starting to get really good deals on the current gen systems, I bought it a few months ago when it went down to $30 for physical.

matmanx1 · Sep 18, 2018

It's turning out to be a banner year for the video games industry thus far. I hope we keep on rockin along and that console and PC gaming really isn't dead after all!

Welfare · Sep 18, 2018

RexNovis said:
Uhhh how exactly did Call of Duty Modern warfare two rank so high ghoul when it's not featured in the XB1 ranking at all? Is it excluded from ranking in the list or something?

It's a 360 BC title.

Deleted member 42484 · Sep 18, 2018

I'm actually surprised Monster Hunter Ultimate charted so high. It only had a few days in August to be counted.

RexNovis · Sep 18, 2018

Welfare said:
It's a 360 BC title.

I just assumed those would fall under XB1 rankings since they are playable on the platform. I take it that's not the case then?

LifeLine · Sep 18, 2018

unfashionable said:
Interested if Mat still predicts Switch leading HW for the year given massive continued success for spiderman...

Switch is still the top Christmas gift, November/December will be huge. And add Smash on top of that and PS4 has no chance.

RexNovis · Sep 18, 2018

Wow at XB1X being the lead Xbox SKU in units sold for the month. That's nuts! I wonder what the actual sku split for XB1 HW is. You'd figure that'd be something they'd want to release of the split is that much in favor of their premium SKU

night814 · Sep 18, 2018

Gotdatmoney said:
Legit was like "get outta my head".

But like people don't get single player JRPGs have 0 legs. What is the leggiest one I wonder.

Gotta be the Pokemon mainline games, FFXV did really well as well.

nstine · Sep 18, 2018

RexNovis said:
I just assumed those would fall under XB1 rankings since they are playable on the platform. I take it that's not the case then?

The most played list on Xbox One is based on number of hours played. Since it released on backwards compatibility so late in the month it would not have had enough time to make the list.

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 18, 2018

Calamari41 said:
Will the copies of Smash Bros sold in the bundle "count" and be factored and released by you guys in November's report, or, since they're technically download codes, are you not allowed to factor those copies in?

Games sold as part of a "hard" bundle (the game is packed in to the same package with a hardware item) are not included in the software sales charts.

So no, copies of Smash packed in with the Switch console will not be counted on the software charts, regardless if the game is on a cart or a code.

Now, we do track sales of Nintendo digital sold via Game Cards purchased at retail. However, these sales are not included for calculating the software sales charts.

Hope that's helpful. Lot of minutiae in how the reporting is put together.

RexNovis said:
I just assumed those would fall under XB1 rankings since they are playable on the platform. I take it that's not the case then?

CoD:MW2 is still considered an Xbox 360 game, as are the other back compat titles supported on Xbox One.

One idea I've kicked around is just having an Xbox top title list and a PlayStation top title list excluding platform breakouts. Seems like something to consider more strongly if and when back compat is confirmed for both next gen systems.

Philly Cheesesteak · Sep 18, 2018

LifeLine said:
Switch is still the top Christmas gift, November/December will be huge. And add Smash on top of that and PS4 has no chance.

You're forgetting several high profile games come out around that with PS4 marketing on top of whatever deals Sony decides to drop. Remember they sold out several times throughout the holiday season 2017 due to insufficient stock. Switch winning is not a foregone conclusion.

Anth0ny · Sep 18, 2018

GTAV the king.

Can't wait to see some Spidey sales.

Calamari41 · Sep 18, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Games sold as part of a "hard" bundle (the game is packed in to the same package with a hardware item) are not included in the software sales charts.

So no, copies of Smash packed in with the Switch console will not be counted on the software charts, regardless if the game is on a cart or a code.

Now, we do track sales of Nintendo digital sold via Game Cards purchased at retail. However, these sales are not included for calculating the software sales charts.

Hope that's helpful. Lot of minutiae in how the reporting is put together.

Definitely helpful, and not quite what I was assuming. Thanks!

RexNovis · Sep 18, 2018

nstine said:
The most played list on Xbox One is based on number of hours played. Since it released on backwards compatibility so late in the month it would not have had enough time to make the list.

Uhh I wasn't talking about most played lost I was talking about the individual platform SW sales rankings. I guess I just wrongfully assumes any titles playable on a given platform would be included in the rankings for that platform but it appears that some not the case

Quinton · Sep 18, 2018

It's a bummer the JRPG genre mostly has such dreadful legs. They either open big or they risk flopping.

HighJump · Sep 18, 2018

Jawbreaker said:
September is going to be interesting.

Preseason.

PS4 and XB1 are showing some nice legs. We'll be going into their 5th year this November!

nstine · Sep 18, 2018

RexNovis said:
Uhh I wasn't talking about most played lost I was talking about the individual platform SW sales rankings. I guess I just wrongfully assumes any titles playable on a given platform would be included in the rankings for that platform but it appears that some not the case

Ah ok, I see what you mean. That is kind of strange.

GUNDAM STARDUST · Sep 18, 2018

RexNovis said:
Uhhh how exactly did Call of Duty Modern warfare two rank so high ghoul when it's not featured in the XB1 ranking at all? Is it excluded from ranking in the list or something?

360 charts?

Edit: Beaten

Calamari41 · Sep 18, 2018

RexNovis said:
Uhh I wasn't talking about most played lost I was talking about the individual platform SW sales rankings. I guess I just wrongfully assumes any titles playable on a given platform would be included in the rankings for that platform but it appears that some not the case

Its probably treated the same way a DS game is. Even though they're playable on 3DS, they aren't going to be in the 3DS rankings even if one sells a ton out of nowhere today, and even if most people are playing it on their 3DS.

Slam Tilt · Sep 18, 2018

ILikeFeet said:
EA will put off putting Frostbite on Switch as long as they possibly can

That's a polite way of saying "until angry shareholders demand their heads for ignoring the Switch".

Deleted member 19702 · Sep 18, 2018

Godzilla's Left Toe said:
It's Capcom don't expect much.

Capcom probably realized at this point how wrong they were at first when they ignored the Switch, their games on it had solid sales. Unless they want to make their stockholders pissed off, they'll keep supporting it as long they can have returns.

ILikeFeet · Sep 18, 2018

Slam Tilt said:
That's a polite way of saying "until angry shareholders demand their heads for ignoring the Switch".

good thing EA makes enough money to keep them placated

SyndicateWars said:
Capcom probably realized at this point how wrong they were at first when they ignored the Switch, their games on it had solid sales. Unless they want to make their stockholders pissed off, they'll keep supporting it as long they can have returns.

I made peace with the idea that Capcom will not support the switch outside of ports of legacy software and low budget games like Mega Man and shit

TheBaldEmperor · Sep 18, 2018

Denman said:
I'm actually surprised Monster Hunter Ultimate charted so high. It only had a few days in August to be counted.

It gave me great joy to see it at number one on the eshop charts. That is a game that you get 100s of hours out of so I would be interested to know the digital sales. It's a game that even when I was super against going all digital, I went digital so I could always have it.

Horror · Sep 18, 2018

Philly Cheesesteak said:
You're forgetting several high profile games come out around that with PS4 marketing on top of whatever deals Sony decides to drop. Remember they sold out several times throughout the holiday season 2017 due to insufficient stock. Switch winning is not a foregone conclusion.

It's a foregone conclusion because unlike 2017 all of the Switch's heavy hitters this year are released in the holiday season and the initial consumer rush to buy them will be concentrated in two of the biggest sales months of the year.

Slam Tilt · Sep 18, 2018

SyndicateWars said:
Capcom probably realized at this point how wrong they were at first when they ignored the Switch, their games on it had solid sales. Unless they want to make their stockholders pissed off, they'll keep supporting it as long they can have returns.

That doesn't mean they won't continue to half-ass their efforts. In fact, I think Monster Hunter World is the only franchise Capcom isn't half-assing at the moment.

ILikeFeet said:
good thing EA makes enough money to keep them placated

In my experience, shareholders do not understand the idea of making "enough" money.

- If you're not maximizing your profits, why not?
- If you're maximizing your profits, why aren't you raising them further?

Cess007 · Sep 18, 2018

Jawbreaker said:
September is going to be interesting.

Man, I haven't heard this "X month is going to be interesting" in a while (since MS decided they no longer cared for numbers, I think)

RexNovis · Sep 18, 2018

GUNDAM STARDUST said:
360 charts?

Edit: Beaten

Calamari41 said:
Its probably treated the same way a DS game is. Even though they're playable on 3DS, they aren't going to be in the 3DS rankings even if one sells a ton out of nowhere today, and even if most people are playing it on their 3DS.

Yep I get the logic behind it now. For some reason it just didn't occur to me that it wouldn't be at first. I think though that with the advent of digital sales it is a bit odd to not track sales of a game on the digital storefront for a specific platform under its own SW rankings. I reckon that is something that should likely change in the future if compatibility and permanence become a much bigger focus on these digital storefronts. At least I would think so anyway

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 18, 2018

RexNovis said:
Yep I get the logic behind it now. For some reason it just didn't occur to me that it wouldn't be at first. I think though that with the advent of digital sales it is a bit odd to not track sales of a game on the digital storefront for a specific platform under its own SW rankings. I reckon that is something that should likely change in the future if compatibility and permanence become a much bigger focus on these digital storefronts. At least I would think so anyway

Did you see my response?

Kenjovani · Sep 18, 2018

matmanx1 said:
It's turning out to be a banner year for the video games industry thus far. I hope we keep on rockin along and that console and PC gaming really isn't dead after all!

Lol in hindsight those articles years ago and analyst saying console gaming was dying were so full of shit !!! It seems consoles are doing better than ever and PC gaming is very healthy.

Terraforce · Sep 18, 2018

ILikeFeet said:
with Naruto doing well, I wonder if Bamco is gonna port it like they did Dragon Ball FighterZ. any hints on how the Naruto Trilogy did (I assume not very good?)?

All three games were top ten or twenty in the eshop for several weeks, so I'd assume overall it sold pretty well.

foxuzamaki · Sep 19, 2018

ILikeFeet said:
with Naruto doing well, I wonder if Bamco is gonna port it like they did Dragon Ball FighterZ. any hints on how the Naruto Trilogy did (I assume not very good?)?

It was in the top ten for like a week or 2, it did really well

RexNovis · Sep 19, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
CoD:MW2 is still considered an Xbox 360 game, as are the other back compat titles supported on Xbox One.

One idea I've kicked around is just having an Xbox top title list and a PlayStation top title list excluding platform breakouts. Seems like something to consider more strongly if and when back compat is confirmed for both next gen systems.

Agreed. As mentioned above withthe prominence of digital markets and ecosystems I would think compatibility and permanence across generations will Demand such a change. Clearly if we can see such a result as we've seen from CoD MW2 as a back catalogue release already this is only going to grow in importance/prominence in the future.

I don't really see any disadvantages in doing something as you propose. Except perhaps during the brief window at the start of a new generation where much attention is paid to SW spend transitions from one HW platform to another. But I guess if things end up completely cross compatible going forward as many expect then any differentiation between SW sales on previous and current HW will be sort of meaningless at that point as any SW would work across both platforms.

It's an interesting decision either way. As always the challenge will be educating everyone on the reporting and precisely what it means in the context of sales as a whole. Just gotta decide which style of reporting does the best job of providing the most useful info and complete picture. Such is the eternal struggle of the analyst.

MatPiscatella said:
Did you see my response?

Yea I just saw it. See my response above

Xx 720 · Sep 19, 2018

Switch is on fire, but I think ps4 should take september off spiderman and October due to red dead. Switch should come back december.

donny2112 · Sep 19, 2018

Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
December gonna be a fun month.

PS4 #1 through August. PS4 will have huge win in Sept due to Pro Spider bundle. Imagine PS4 takes October due to momentum, as well. November is all about the deals, but since PS4/XB1 do the biggest deals in November, Switch still not taking November.

Then Smash hits. In traditionally the biggest month for Nintendo consoles (still, by a long shot). In gift-giving season. Was it still supply constrained last December? That makes a significant difference, too. There are people who only consider buying consoles in Nov/Dec, so it being available after last Fall wouldn't make a difference to those people.

If Switch takes the year, it'll be because of a monumental December. Not sure if I believe it has it in it, but it's certainly setting itself up to give a good effort to do so!

Edit:
If PS4 has < 1m unit lead YTD going into December, Switch has a good chance of taking the year, I think.

fiendcode said:
DSi had over 500 exclusives.

I like you. People seem to treat the digital DSiWare store as not counting for some reason. :lol:

Edit:

Calamari41 said:
Yeah, I would imagine that they'll be publishing the specific SKU number, which obviously will give subscribers the number of games sold.

I guess what my question boils down to is whether they track physical sales of download codes, or if those are treated the same as actual on-eshop purchases as far as what they are allowed to report goes.

Some review:
* Manufacture bundled software is not counted in the software totals, but the hardware SKU is tracked separately in the full hardware chart subscribers get.
* Store bundles are treated as separate items, for comparison.

Good question on the POS cards. NPD tracks everything sold at the register, so they are aware of the POS card sales. Not sure how they're counted, though. MatPiscatella , are POS cards tracked as physical software, accessories, or digital software?

MatPiscatella said:
Now, we do track sales of Nintendo digital sold via Game Cards purchased at retail. However, these sales are not included for calculating the software sales charts.

Hope that's helpful. Lot of minutiae in how the reporting is put together.

So the POS cards are counted as digital sales, and NPD reports those sales only for the companies they have permission to report digital sales, then?

Thanks!

donny2112 · Sep 19, 2018

Edit: Double post.

Philly Cheesesteak · Sep 19, 2018

The Horror the Horror said:
It's a foregone conclusion because unlike 2017 all of the Switch's heavy hitters this year are released in the holiday season and the initial consumer rush to buy them will be concentrated in two of the biggest sales months of the year.

Switch only has two heavy hitters releasing this holiday season: LGP/LGE and Smash. Both titles are releasing in November and December respectively. At the same time, you have bigger titles releasing on PS4 and Xbox in BO4, RDR2, etc. and these titles that you can't get on Switch have marketing with the PS4 which is still the #1 console platform for 2018. The same PS4 that miraculously in its 5th year of life is selling still like hot cakes and this is at the price of $299.

We haven't even seen if Sony will be dropping the price again to $250 or even lower. If you can't see how a potentially $200 PS4 with some of the hottest games of the year releasing at the same time isn't more than capable of challenging Nintendo for holidays sales, then there's nothing else to talk about. Hell, even Mat himself said that while he believes Switch will be the #1 overall console for 2018, that could easily change depending on what Sony does around BF timeframe. If even he is a tad unsure of what could happen, why are you so certain Nintendo is going to automatically dominate like Sony and MS are just going to roll over?

slavesnyder · Sep 19, 2018

Nibel said:
Side note: this is my first NPD thread (...) please notify me if I messed up anywhere - thanks!

good work, nibel. thanks a lot.

texhnolyze · Sep 19, 2018

Jawbreaker said:
It didn't make the top-20 in July.

Cool, so it really was the PC version boosting it to the 2nd place in August.

Anyway, probably as others have said, Naruto is such a bizarre result. The OT in here doesn't even reach 2nd page lol.

robjoh · Sep 19, 2018

Should I interpret the fact that we did not get a top 3ds software list as its software sales now are completely dead?

Mezoly · Sep 19, 2018

robjoh said:
Should I interpret the fact that we did not get a top 3ds software list as its software sales now are completely dead?

Mat tweeted the 3DS list:

robjoh · Sep 19, 2018

Mezoly said:
Mat tweeted the 3DS list:

Thanks!

Horror · Sep 19, 2018

Philly Cheesesteak said:
Switch only has two heavy hitters releasing this holiday season: LGP/LGE and Smash. Both titles are releasing in November and December respectively. At the same time, you have bigger titles releasing on PS4 and Xbox in BO4, RDR2, etc. and these titles that you can't get on Switch have marketing with the PS4 which is still the #1 console platform for 2018. The same PS4 that miraculously in its 5th year of life is selling still like hot cakes and this is at the price of $299.

We haven't even seen if Sony will be dropping the price again to $250 or even lower. If you can't see how a potentially $200 PS4 with some of the hottest games of the year releasing at the same time isn't more than capable of challenging Nintendo for holidays sales, then there's nothing else to talk about. Hell, even Mat himself said that while he believes Switch will be the #1 overall console for 2018, that could easily change depending on what Sony does around BF timeframe. If even he is a tad unsure of what could happen, why are you so certain Nintendo is going to automatically dominate like Sony and MS are just going to lay over?

Because another reason is that Switch's saturation point is still light years away, especially compared to the PS4's, and the portability factor makes it receptive to multiple purchases per single household, particularly given the local multiplayer factor of two of its biggest games this year. But those are trivial wrinkles compared to the single biggest reason and that's the commercial phenomenon that is Smash. On top of that, there's been only one other time when Smash Brothers was released on a system as attractive and as popular as the Switch. Sales will be so huge the national news will be all over it.

MrTired · Sep 19, 2018

RexNovis said:
Wow at XB1X being the lead Xbox SKU in units sold for the month. That's nuts! I wonder what the actual sku split for XB1 HW is. You'd figure that'd be something they'd want to release of the split is that much in favor of their premium SKU

That might not necessarily be the case. The slim has more sku's (different bundles) which divides the slim numbers more.

NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware

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