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AntiMacro

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,139
Alberta
ERA Analysis is always good for a laugh.
Yeah, people laugh at Pachter, but stuff like this is 1,000x worse. I mean there's even the 'hey I don't know if you noticed, but [company with tie in] saw its stock price drop!!!' tangent seen most recently with Nike and their Kaepernick ad. It's kind of embarrassing.
 

JCHandsom

Avenger
Nov 3, 2017
4,218
They reached the top of the mountain, they're just laying back and enjoying the view right now. A decline would kinda necessitate something big coming up to knock it down, or at least something to draw away the masses, which there doesn't seem to be.
 

Katonix

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
790
The only game able to compete with Fortnite is COD. If they really want to compete they have to have a FREE BR.
 

Gorillaz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,625
The only game able to compete with Fortnite is COD. If they really want to compete they have to have a FREE BR.
Blackout will be fine because it's the first actual built from the ground up aaa BR

that shit ain't going free anytime soon and by the looks of things it don't need to be
even tho I'm not looking to drop money on all of these releases in October
 

mas8705

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,497
I may not care for FortNite myself and like the imagine how the days of Battle Royale games will be numbered eventually. With all that said, I'm pretty sure that FortNite isn't really on the decline at the moment. It might slow down and not grow as big as it has over the last year or so, but decline might be over extending it.

Now... Once we see BlackOut and FireStorm from Black Ops 4 and BattleField 5, then we might see a possible decline then (but that would be a big "IF"). As long as FortNite is "Free-To-Play" though, it is probably fair to say that it is one of the more "accessible games" for many gamers.
 

Deleted member 16025

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,506
Fortnite will be fine. It has such a giant userbase right now, its going to be around for years, so learn how to deal with that if it makes you angry.

They have brilliant people working on it, keeping it relevant and fresh with new modes, events, and mysteries. Its going to be here for a while. Also, ITS FREE. That's huge. While your friends list on XBL may move on to other things, there will be kids playing Fortnite for who knows how long. Buckle in.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Fortnite will always have to have a decline at some point but think of it this way, currently most of the big streamers are playing these Betas, just like how they play any beta. Beta viewers will not be the same as final release viewers, so that's probably a better point of reference.
 

sanstesy

Banned
Nov 16, 2017
2,471
Definitely. The decline has been starting to set in for some time now.

The game lacks real game-changing updates I feel. Even then it had a great run, though.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,620
Watertown, NY
Call of Duty certainly opened a few peoples eyes to just how much polish was missing from the other Battle Royale's out there and it's just the beginning.

Dude your new avatar is the cat's ass. Gomez up in here speaking truth.

I hate to say it but even with all the bad press Black ops 4 has got, im getting Black ops 4 for blackout. If ninja changes and starts playing shooters again more prominently than I would say you will see a bigger decline as they have yet put out anything content wise for that game. No new maps things like that.
 

Betty

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,604
Dude your new avatar is the cat's ass. Gomez up in here speaking truth.

I hate to say it but even with all the bad press Black ops 4 has got, im getting Black ops 4 for blackout. If ninja changes and starts playing shooters again more prominently than I would say you will see a bigger decline as they have yet put out anything content wise for that game. No new maps things like that.

Thanks! And it's the first COD since the first Black op's i'm considering buying for the same reason.
 

kadotsu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,505
They had just 2% growth with the launch of the current Battlepass. It would be sensible to say that this was the most clear indication of the game peaking. Now it will be all about retention and milking the existing userbase.

It is still crazy successful, though.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Usually seeing just a "yes" in reply to the title would be a random joke post but seeing it beside NPD Analyst is funny.

Oh? Go on...

They had just 2% growth with the launch of the current Battlepass. It would be sensible to say that this was the most clear indication of the game peaking. Now it will be all about retention and milking the existing userbase.

It is still crazy successful, though.

Yup.
 

ghostcrew

The Shrouded Ghost
Administrator
Oct 27, 2017
30,366
iyi1xgW.png


With the onset of other big shooters on the horizon with Battle Royal modes, will this signal the end of Fortnite's reign over the gaming world as the most popular game?

What do you think ERA? Do you feel that games like Battlefield and Call of Duty introducing Battle Royal will harm Fortnite's popularity?

This is one very specific snapshot of Twitch stats from the day/first hours that Blackout launched on PC/Xbox. It took only days for the PlayStation stream numbers to slow down on Twitch. Why don't we wait for these to settle down before we jump to conclusion? Fortnite was destroying Black Ops 4 for the past few days on Twitch, even with some massive streamers playing Blackout.
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,494
Why are some people so eager to see Fortnite fail? Is it because it "stole" audience from another game? Or is it just because it's popular with younger audiences?

I don't play the game, but it made me see that BR games can be fun, engaging, well-performing, relatively-bug-free experiences. That CoD BR mode looks pretty good too.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,798
Twitch isn't a reliable indicator for a lot of reasons (people playing vs. viewership, special events like we're seeing now, etc). If you're talking about decline in terms of lack of growth (rather than loss) then I suppose you can reason away on that, but using Twitch as an indicator by way of a snapshot is not telling of any trends, unless you're actually looking at, well, trends. If it were, Radical Heights might still be a thing lol.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
I think you're taking this the wrong way. Usually a thread with a title like this would cause a flood of random people posting "nah" or "ya" pointlessly then leaving the thread, so it's rare to see a similar post as a serious / informed reply by an NPD analyst.

Ah I see.

Viewership peaked in early Q2. Seeing slowing growth across data points that were driven by Fortnite earlier in the year like headsets and controllers. Also have major IP entering the BR space that will grow the audience but also steal share. Fortnite will continue to do fine, but more cash cow now than growth engine. The big IP are going to come in and take majority genre share.
 

itchi

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,287
New game comes out and Battle Royale streamers switch it is not really surprising. Will have to see where the numbers end up after the CoD hype dies down.
 

DontHateTheBacon

Unshakable Resolve
Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,388
No.

There's a private beta out for another game and a lot of popular streamers are going to obviously stream the limited time event.

We'll find out in January-ish of next year what the long term effects of new competition have done to Fortnite.
 

IIFloodyII

Member
Oct 26, 2017
23,979
I've also personally stopped playing Fortnite as have most of my friends, but I'm kinda just done with BR in-general, already burnt-out on it, my friends are currently playing the CoD beta. We'll see if it sticks, I can see plenty running back if they do a major update (like a new map).
 

Absolute

Banned
Nov 6, 2017
2,090
World of Warcraft's new expansion has been showing some decent numbers.

Not sure how it will shakeout for Fortnite but it definitely seems to have peaked.
 

MajinArekkusu

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
427
Germany
Fortnite is already too popular, free and had the celebrity promotions on social media accounts for free. Cod is popular but won't get the same buzz, and Fortnites artstyle simply is more appealing to a wider audience.

It will probably stay as number one for a while. Even without growing.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,891
World of Warcraft's new expansion has been showing some decent numbers.

Not sure how it will shakeout for Fortnite but it definitely seems to have peaked.

Nah, there's a Fall skirmish coming up worth literally millions of dollars in prizes hosted by Epic Games (prize money even bigger than the Summer skirmish). It'll be fine.
 

KingFrost92

Member
Oct 26, 2017
978
Oregon
I have noticed that Ninja has dropped from the 100k+ viewers per stream to something like 60k now. School being back in session could cause that, and I have seen less of it here and there, but there's no denying that that thing has HOLD on many people. I wouldn't expect it to go anywhere any time soon.
 

Misterman

Member
Jun 10, 2018
212
I hate these threads. Today is the first day Black Ops 4 beta is on PC. All the big streamers from Fortnite are playing that right now. It'll take some time before things steady out and you can make a final verdict. Besides, Twitch definitely doesn't answer that alone.

PUBG is probably gonna probably die though, Fortnite at least has its building going for it.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,891
I have noticed that Ninja has dropped from the 100k+ viewers per stream to something like 60k now. School being back in session could cause that, and I have seen less of it here and there, but there's no denying that that thing has HOLD on many people. I wouldn't expect it to go anywhere any time soon.

He was at 240,000 this morning due to a promotion where people can get in the beta for free today by watching his stream from 10AM to 12PM. His viewers will be demanding him to play Fortnite if they aren't alread.
 

Absolute

Banned
Nov 6, 2017
2,090
Nah, there's a Fall skirmish coming up worth literally millions of dollars in prizes hosted by Epic Games (prize money even bigger than the Summer skirmish). It'll be fine.

I'm not saying it is in trouble just that I think peaked and will continue to be popular for a long while. Happy to be wrong though, I like when huge games grow and become part of mainstream culture.
 

AntiMacro

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,139
Alberta
Ah I see.

Viewership peaked in early Q2. Seeing slowing growth across data points that were driven by Fortnite earlier in the year like headsets and controllers. Also have major IP entering the BR space that will grow the audience but also steal share. Fortnite will continue to do fine, but more cash cow now than growth engine. The big IP are going to come in and take majority genre share.
I had to laugh a little at the idea Fortnite isn't - on its own - a big IP.
 

KingFrost92

Member
Oct 26, 2017
978
Oregon
He was at 240,000 this morning due to a promotion where people can get in the beta for free today by watching his stream from 10AM to 12PM. His viewers will be demanding him to play Fortnite if they aren't alread.

Wow for a few minutes there I didn't even think about him conceivably playing another game haha. That makes those stream numbers in the OP make sense. People are really into the new Blackout mode from what I've heard, but yeah he'll most likely go right back after this beta until release. Those #s were just from what I was seeing on Tuesday, I think. Could be wrong too, but I remember seeing something like 60k.

EDIT: also the Destiny 2 raid is out today, so of course that's gonna boost it near the top.
 

Rudolph

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
671
Colorado by way of Louisiana
This is one very specific snapshot of Twitch stats from the day/first hours that Blackout launched on PC/Xbox. It took only days for the PlayStation stream numbers to slow down on Twitch. Why don't we wait for these to settle down before we jump to conclusion? Fortnite was destroying Black Ops 4 for the past few days on Twitch, even with some massive streamers playing Blackout.

Not only that. LCS is happening right now NA/EU/KR are playing gauntlets to see who goes to worlds so that'll spike up above Fortnite because Esports. WoW is also having a tournament (so esports). And the Forsaken Raid came out today + CoD4 PC beta came out.