August 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 11th

ethomaz · Sep 14, 2018

With more insights into the thread...

PS4 199k
SW 205k
XB1 165k
3DS 72k

???

I will hold these numbers for while... thanks Aqua and MagicPork.

donny2112 · Sep 14, 2018

shark97 said:
i expect btw based on benji's comments ps4 is going to get a big hardware bump in september due to spiderman. because it also happened for god of war.

shark97 said:
hardware will always>software. ps4 won this gen on dominant more powerful base hardware in years 1-4.

These two statements are in direct contradiction.

Also,

Megadrive
N64
XBX
PS3

None won their gen. All were most advanced hardware in their gen.

*shrugs*

Lelouch0612 · Sep 14, 2018

donny2112 said:
These two statements are in direct contradiction.

Also,

Megadrive
N64
XBX
PS3

None won their gen. All were most advanced hardware in their gen.

*shrugs*

And the :

-Wii
-PS2
-PS1
-3DS
-DS

Won despite being the least powerful hardware of their gen (in their category).

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 14, 2018

Exclusives matter. Hardware matters. Price matters. Marketing matters. Distribution matters. Production matters. Everything matters.

donny2112 · Sep 14, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Exclusives matter. Hardware matters. Price matters. Marketing matters. Distribution matters. Production matters. Everything matters.

I feel like a joke about mass is needed here, but I'm just not sure what it would be.

Edit:
Mass market matters and takes up space? slavesnyder, I am not. :lol:

Ryng™ · Sep 14, 2018

allan-bh said:
Try 1.4m for november and 2.1m for december. And this is generous.

I predict 1.2 million in November and 2.5 million in December

Why you think Switch will increase by "only" 50% in December when last year the increase was like 95%, and this year they'll have the huge launch of Smash?

Sander VF · Sep 14, 2018

donny2112 said:
These two statements are in direct contradiction.

Also,

Megadrive
N64
XBX
PS3

None won their gen. All were most advanced hardware in their gen.

*shrugs*

Megadrive wasn't most powerful in it's gen.

Ryng™ · Sep 14, 2018

Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
[NSW] 216K
[PS4] 194K
[XB1] 161K

Looks like i'm super close with PS4 and XB1... Switch a bit overestimate tho, but i'm ok with that! :D

Also, thanks Magicpork and Aqua, always amazing to see you in the NPD threads. :p

kowalski · Sep 14, 2018

kowalski said:
[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 160K

Well, not bad for me.

Visanideth · Sep 14, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Exclusives matter. Hardware matters. Price matters. Marketing matters. Distribution matters. Production matters. Everything matters.

Does size matter too?

Deleted member 31092 · Sep 14, 2018

Aquamarine said:
It's interesting data! For example, you may ask to yourself, "Why didn't Octopath Traveler dominate Switch exclusives? Isn't it only in its second month?" Follow the logical thought processes here!

That's because evergreens have crazy attach ratios

MK8D had a 60.1% attach ratio last quarter, so going by that ratio in August too that would mean around 120k (including digital, so let's say 20k are digital and only assume 100k), and knowing that historically JRGP drops by >75% second month that's already well below 100k.

I have zero numbers, but that's what I would have assumed.

Adventureracing · Sep 14, 2018

Visanideth said:
Does size matter too?

Duke controller. Never forget.

slavesnyder · Sep 14, 2018

marshall matters

Instro · Sep 14, 2018

Family matters

Jiggy · Sep 14, 2018

I matter

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 14, 2018

Yo mama matters

DeuceGamer · Sep 14, 2018

How many weeks is September tracking period and what are the dates? Thanks in advance.

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 14, 2018

DeuceGamer said:
How many weeks is September tracking period and what are the dates? Thanks in advance.

Sangetsu-II · Sep 14, 2018

Pablo Mesa said:
why would they? they are already at the head, they dont need to cut their revenue to sell more hardware on a gap XBOX will not close. they are better of selling less while making more from each unit

Wouldn't Sony get more money from software and subs if people bought it $50 cheaper though?

jroc74 · Sep 14, 2018

Wandu said:
Reads just like the graphs from the article:

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015...-widen-its-console-sales-lead-over-microsoft/

Lmao, I did the excuse me face when I read that part in his post.

Never mind the fact that with the massive growth XBO had, the smaller growth PS4 had it still couldn't place higher than PS4 this month.

That's including Pro shortages.

Madness, lol.

v_iHuGi said:
Lmao this is so wrong it's actually funny to read.

I'm beginning to think it's satire.

Nightengale · Sep 14, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Exclusives matter. Hardware matters. Price matters. Marketing matters. Distribution matters. Production matters. Everything matters.

The first 6 points listed - have dedicated teams that get paid significant salary to focus their 9-5 (hahaha) solely on those things, not just at console companies, but practically any hardware/service/FMCG/etc organisation.

That happens because it matters. Even if we don't see it.

Pablo Mesa · Sep 14, 2018

Sangetsu-II said:
Wouldn't Sony get more money from software and subs if people bought it $50 cheaper though?

How much many unit would they sell at this point from those 50$ difference?

DriftingSpirit · Sep 14, 2018

MatPiscatella said:

So Spidey gets just 1 day less than a whole month with tracking for this month.

Them numbers gonna be bonkers.

DeuceGamer · Sep 14, 2018

MatPiscatella said:

Ah thanks! I replied to you last pinned tweet and asked if you could update it but hadnt noticed you did. Thanks whether that was the reason or not. Really appreciate it!

v_iHuGi · Sep 14, 2018

DriftingSpirit said:
So Spidey gets just 1 day less than a whole month with tracking for this month.

Them numbers gonna be bonkers.

Reading myself for those 3M+ opening.

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 14, 2018

DeuceGamer said:
Ah thanks! I replied to you last pinned tweet and asked if you could update it but hadnt noticed you did. Thanks whether that was the reason or not. Really appreciate it!

Yeah it was. No prob.

Marukoban · Sep 14, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Yeah it was. No prob.

Can I ask something?
I read before you mentioned mid gen hardware revision has helped consoles to maintain sales momentum.
Do you reckon a significant part of those sales are attributed to people upgrading? Or is it skewed more towards new audience?

Deleted member 2785 · Sep 14, 2018

Marukoban said:
Can I ask something?
I read before you mentioned mid gen hardware revision has helped consoles to maintain sales momentum.
Do you reckon a significant part of those sales are attributed to people upgrading? Or is it skewed more towards new audience?

Dont know. We dont track by user.

My assumption is that if someone does upgrade the old console gets traded in, sold, or given to friends or family leading to a new user anyways. Shrug.

Marukoban · Sep 14, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Dont know. We dont track by user.

My assumption is that if someone does upgrade the old console gets traded in, sold, or given to friends or family leading to a new user anyways. Shrug.

I see.
Thanks for answering anyway.

Sangetsu-II · Sep 14, 2018

Pablo Mesa said:
How much many unit would they sell at this point from those 50$ difference?

Well if last year is anything to go by...a lot.

DukeBlue · Sep 15, 2018

Nintendo on top again? Ugh they just can't stop winning!

Genuinely glad everyone is doing alright and especially happy Xbox seems to be having their best year

DriftingSpirit · Sep 15, 2018

v_iHuGi said:
Reading myself for those 3M+ opening.

God of War 3 record for best opening for a PS exclusive launch in US is going down with ease. 2-2.5M range seems about right. 3M is quite bold though.

slavesnyder · Sep 15, 2018

Aquamarine said:
The NES Classic performance alone surpasses Xbox One and rivals other consoles...

this is pretty remarkable but at the same time also a little unfair as one of these consoles only has a very limited choice of games and the other has no uhd.

SinCityAssassin · Sep 15, 2018

Can't wait for another headline saying NES is the best selling console.

Benji · Sep 15, 2018

Poor Lara :-(

Zedark · Sep 15, 2018

Benji said:
Poor Lara :-(

:(

Well, I didn't buy it, either. Too close to XBC2: Torna, the Golden Country.

Astandahl · Sep 15, 2018

Benji said:
Poor Lara :-(

Darksiders 3 is going to suffer even more.

Benji · Sep 15, 2018

Couldn't even match Spidey 2nd week. Actually not even close

patapon · Sep 15, 2018

Benji said:
Couldn't even match Spidey 2nd week. Actually not even close

Dayum

DriftingSpirit · Sep 15, 2018

Benji said:
Couldn't even match Spidey 2nd week. Actually not even close

What in the world?

I suppose this suggests Spidey had a pretty solid 2nd week though!

Zedark · Sep 15, 2018

Benji said:
Couldn't even match Spidey 2nd week. Actually not even close

To be fair, Spider-Man's second week is probably still humongous, but not even getting close is definitely bad for a game like Tomb Raider.

Deleted member 7753 · Sep 15, 2018

Benji said:
Couldn't even match Spidey 2nd week. Actually not even close

Is it worse than Knack 2?

Acquiescence · Sep 15, 2018

Benji said:
Poor Lara :-(

gundamkyoukai · Sep 15, 2018

Benji said:
Poor Lara :-(

Was expecting not great sales.
Hype and buzz has been at a all time low since the reboot .
Guess they going to have to drop the price to get sales.

DriftingSpirit · Sep 15, 2018

Zedark said:
To be fair, Spider-Man's second week is probably still humongous, but not even getting close is definitely bad for a game like Tomb Raider.

I don't know, being multiplatform balances that out though. By all means, it should be outdoing Spidey on its second week imo.

Katana_Strikes · Sep 15, 2018

Benji said:
Poor Lara :-(

Benji said:
Couldn't even match Spidey 2nd week. Actually not even close

Eidos not worried about Spider-Man though...

patapon · Sep 15, 2018

gundamkyoukai said:
Was expecting not great sales.
Hype and buzz has been at a all time low since the reboot .
Guess they going to have to drop the price to get sales.

It's going to drop in price fairly soon because AC Odyssey and RDR2 are nearing launch. It's only going to get worse for SoTR

gundamkyoukai · Sep 15, 2018

DriftingSpirit said:
I don't know, being multiplatform balances that out though. By all means, it should be outdoing Spidey on its second week imo.

Yep it's not like TR is some small IP .

Katana_Strikes said:
Eidos not worried about Spider-Man though...

What is funny is spidey might have hurt 2 SE IPs at the same time lol.

Ricky_R · Sep 15, 2018

It's ok guys! They will reboot it again.

Gotdatmoney · Sep 15, 2018

Are Mat, Benji, Aqua and others taking questions in this thread or should I leave them for official release?

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