• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Labo's sell-through weakness is echoed across European territories. The reason I point out Labo sales so much is because I am concerned about Nintendo's weakness in developing the casual market on the Switch. Labo was intended to be a key driver of casual adoption this year, so to see it underwhelm at retailers is a unique phenomenon not because of what it says about Labo, but what it says about the future of the Switch.

I think any healthy platform needs a diverse and wide-ranging audience, especially something like the Switch. The more polarized the Switch becomes towards the hardcore, the more precarious of a situation they put themselves in. The hardcore audience is loyal but fickle. There's no guarantee they will stick with underpowered hardware, so it brings into question Switch longevity.

I think as a platform the Switch serves as a nice complement right now to the PS4. But that can easily change with market shifts, like if Sony introduces a way to allow for portable PS4 play.

Just so you know a lot of us do appreciate your sales insights and share you concerns.

Nintendo took a gamble with Labo. Not a very expensive or risky gamble I don't think, but something like Switch Sports probably would've been a safer way to capture some of that casual audience. But anyway it looks like the gamble did not pay off, at least yet. Kit 3 looks much better in terms of being a game, but if their goal is to get casuals on board I don't think that will work either.
 

Alienhated

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,527
Labo's sell-through weakness is echoed across European territories. The reason I point out Labo sales so much is because I am concerned about Nintendo's weakness in developing the casual market on the Switch. Labo was intended to be a key driver of casual adoption this year, so to see it underwhelm at retailers is a unique phenomenon not because of what it says about Labo, but what it says about the future of the Switch.

I think any healthy platform needs a diverse and wide-ranging audience, especially something like the Switch. The more polarized the Switch becomes towards the hardcore, the more precarious of a situation they put themselves in. The hardcore audience is loyal but fickle. There's no guarantee they will stick with underpowered hardware, so it brings into question Switch longevity.

I think as a platform the Switch serves as a nice complement right now to the PS4. But that can easily change with market shifts, like if Sony introduces a way to allow for portable PS4 play.
I think they "just" need to lower the price (and probably to come up with a more portable or kid-friendly form factor), no matter how hard they try to chase that non-gamer crowd with products like Labo, that audience is not going to buy a 300+$ machine en mass, in my opinion.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
There are sufficient indicators to tell us that Labo success is a double-edged sword for the company.
cause that was beyond the "Labo is a success or not based on guess work based on no previous bars"

in the event labo failed, how in god green earth is that a problem for the switch? it only means there is not much of a market for real world interaction gimmick without a solid AA-AAA game attached to it. and given the LABO software is meh and its cardboard, it will not hurt its bottom line.
 

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,229
the quality of my posts seems low, but it's exceeding expectations and my internal forecasts.
tenor.gif
 

Marukoban

Self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
2,298
Labo's sell-through weakness is echoed across European territories. The reason I point out Labo sales so much is because I am concerned about Nintendo's weakness in developing the casual market on the Switch. Labo was intended to be a key driver of casual adoption this year, so to see it underwhelm at retailers is a unique phenomenon not because of what it says about Labo, but what it says about the future of the Switch.

I think any healthy platform needs a diverse and wide-ranging audience, especially something like the Switch. The more polarized the Switch becomes towards the hardcore, the more precarious of a situation they put themselves in. The hardcore audience is loyal but fickle. There's no guarantee they will stick with underpowered hardware, so it brings into question Switch longevity.

I think as a platform the Switch serves as a nice complement right now to the PS4. But that can easily change with market shifts, like if Sony introduces a way to allow for portable PS4 play.

I agree with your points.
Nintendo does kinda need the casual audience, because they'll never be able to get the "hardcore gamers" that are into graphic powerhouse.
More so once PS5/XB2 launch in next few years.

I think right now Labo's ship has pretty much sailed.
Initially on reveal, I thought the idea itself is very neat and looks marketable, sadly many people (including myself) might have underestimated the price barrier of Labo.
Possibly Labo could've done better if it's launched later after price cut, but at the same time Nintendo does need to build casual fanbase considering some of their IP skews towards that.
At the moment Labo project is definitely profitable but probably not successful in the way that Nintendo expected out of it.
It was a low risk high reward project, but sadly didn't pay off in big way.

Labo's "failure" might also be the reason why Pokemon LGP/LGE preorder has been slow so far.
The audience for those games are just not on Switch yet.
I'm afraid that one also might under perform heavily compared to previous mainline Pokemon.
 

Sonicfan059

Member
Mar 4, 2018
3,024
Just so you know a lot of us do appreciate your sales insights and share you concerns.

Nintendo took a gamble with Labo. Not a very expensive or risky gamble I don't think, but something like Switch Sports probably would've been a safer way to capture some of that casual audience. But anyway it looks like the gamble did not pay off, at least yet. Kit 3 looks much better in terms of being a game, but if their goal is to get casuals on board I don't think that will work either.
Nintendo should just do the Sony approach. Please the hardcore at launch then cater to casuals after they sell a lot and get price down.
 

Jade1962

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
4,259
I enjoy this new sales shift. Now everything can be successful because we don't know publishers expectations.
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
From my own personal perspective, I liked the Wii's controls. Pointer is absolutely one of the best things for controllers that Nintendo's ever done and the closest to mouse controls on a console that's come out. Motion controls were okay at times, too. Enjoyed Wii Sports/Resort, Wii Play, Wario Ware Smooth Moves. Was excited for Wii Music, until they demoed it. Wanted that "conduct an orchestra with a Wiimote" game that they had in their early advertising. Thankfully, Wario Ware had a mode sort of like that to scratch that itch (along with motion control Star Fox SNES, which was amazing). Still use Wii Fit/Plus/U to track weight and actually use the software sometimes, too. Obviously, I'm a traditional core gamer, as well, even if I'm finding myself increasingly not interested in many of the newer games coming out which focus on online multiplayer.

That said, I kind of think that maybe Nintendo was targeting someone like me with Labo. Someone who was open to non-traditional gaming experiences. However, I am certainly not someone who likes DIY construction kits to make the game work. Have LEGO Dimensions, and have barely gotten into it, despite it looking fun (and having Portal gameplay). Don't know that it's definitely the DIY aspect of it, but that's probably part of it. I've followed directions to make lots of real-world objects like bookshelves, tables, etc. I do it, because I have to. It isn't fun to me. Putting together Labo never seemed like fun to me. And then the game attached to it seemed half-baked from the previews. Basically, if you didn't enjoy the DIY aspect of it, it seemed like you were missing out on half the fun, since the game itself didn't seem especially compelling. Plus there's the whole "I'm supposed to stick a $300 console into that piece of cardboard?!" concern. I have some cardboard VR viewers for my phone, and I'm always concerned when I have to take it out of its protective case to put it into the viewer. Comparitively, sticking a Wiimote into some device to "enhance" gameplay doesn't bother me near as much.

To bring this back to sales, I wonder if this kind of "high risk/effort for little reward" mindset is playing into the lack of Labo sales. And maybe Nintendo expected this may not take off, too. For all the flak Nintendo gets about Mario <> games, they mostly put Mario (or one of their other characters) on an idea that they know can be good but may not get the attention it deserves, otherwise. The distinct lack of Labo Mario/Zelda Edition may indicate that Nintendo was more than a little apprehensive about how Labo would be received, and didn't want to attach their larger IPs to a potentially troubled ship.

To Aqua's more general concern about Switch expanding beyond the core market, I feel the same way. 1-2-Switch was not Wii Sports reincarnate. The biggest games are the traditional ones. Mobile hasn't gone away, so the purely casual market that went from Wii to mobile seems unlikely to come back. Switch will still do well with Nintendo games, but the support from third-parties seems likely to decline even further from where it's already at as other system's specs continue to go up. For Microsoft or Sony, that'd be a death knell, but this is Nintendo. Further reduced third-party support is problematic for long-term viability of the platform, but since the cost should be able to go down (unlike with Wii U and its GamePad) and Nintendo will still put its own games on the system, Switch should still do well enough, long-term. It just may not be the near PS4 level that it's at now.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
You've established that it doesn't matter what anyone thinks but Nintendo so why would I bother.
I dont care is not cause we dont have official nintendo goals, we rarely ever get official goals, we extrapolate goal when a publisher say they are happy. add up thousands of games and decades worth of that, marketing, insiders knowlowdge of costs, etc etc etc .

Labo is odd in teh sense we dont have anything close to that to make a proper guess work on how much should it sell to be a success.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,315
Nashville
Can we talk about software that we all actually care about? Like Labo isn't as big as it seems. End of story. Now I kinda wonder how Octopath will do in its 2nd month.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Can we talk about software that we all actually care about? Like Labo isn't as big as it seems. End of story. Now I kinda wonder how Octopath will do in its 2nd month.

The focus on Labo is so incredibly weird. Sure, I thought it would sell more at this point. But it hasn't. Doesn't matter. And it'll sell more in holiday or it wont. Who knows. Pokemon will expand Switch to mass market and if it doesnt nothing else will. Like Labo is this cool idea that so far hasn't found a huge audience. Like, okay? Lots of products are like this.

Anyways, Octo month 2 is interesting, and of course Madden is a key barometer for the holiday market. But someone buy coffee for the thread if we are just going to regurgitate Labo every month so everyone can stay awake.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
The focus on Labo is so incredibly weird. Sure, I thought it would sell more at this point. But it hasn't. Doesn't matter. And it'll sell more in holiday or it wont. Who knows. Pokemon will expand Switch to mass market and if it doesnt nothing else will. Like Labo is this cool idea that so far hasn't found a huge audience. Like, okay? Lots of products are like this.

Anyways, Octo month 2 is interesting, and of course Madden is a key barometer for the holiday market. But someone buy coffee for the thread if we are just going to regurgitate Labo every month so everyone can stay awake.

Matt I wanted to hear your thoughts on this.

You said that Fortnite was big hardware driver this year. It is bringing a new audience to the table and grows the pie. Now :

- What kind of games benefited from the addition of this new audience ?
- Since it is an online GaaS game, were there games that were impacted negatively ? I am thinking about casual/mainstream online games like CoD or even Sports game.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
You said that Fortnite was big hardware driver this year. It is bringing a new audience to the table and grows the pie.

That's what the data suggests to me, although impossible to prove 100%.

What kind of games benefited from the addition of this new audience?

Well shoot. That's a tough one to know for sure. So, I keep having to write release notes about how game X is the best-selling game in whatever genre game X is in or the best-selling version of any game in the X franchise. But is that because of this expanded audience, or shrinking AAA release count, or perhaps one of a number of other factors? I'm not sure. And I don't have a data based breakdown of Fortnite players vs non-Fortnite players to compare things like tie ratios. So, I don't know. My hunch is that big mass market games will benefit, but I just don't know for sure.

- Since it is an online GaaS game, were there games that were impacted negatively ? I am thinking about casual/mainstream online games like CoD or even Sports game.

Well I think we have to wait and see if the dynamics that have occurred on Twitch between PUBG Fortnite and COD play out in sales as well. To this point, I don't think any particular games have been significantly impacted in a negative way. But we have a lot of the year left to play out.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,739
Italy
Anyways, Octo month 2 is interesting, and of course Madden is a key barometer for the holiday market. But someone buy coffee for the thread if we are just going to regurgitate Labo every month so everyone can stay awake.

I want to have an historical comparison (even without numbers of course) across all Etrian Odyssey games! That'd be rad.
 

Sal_S

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,476
Hamilton
Labo's sell-through weakness is echoed across European territories. The reason I point out Labo sales so much is because I am concerned about Nintendo's weakness in developing the casual market on the Switch. Labo was intended to be a key driver of casual adoption this year, so to see it underwhelm at retailers is a unique phenomenon not because of what it says about Labo, but what it says about the future of the Switch.

I think any healthy platform needs a diverse and wide-ranging audience, especially something like the Switch. The more polarized the Switch becomes towards the hardcore, the more precarious of a situation they put themselves in. The hardcore audience is loyal but fickle. There's no guarantee they will stick with underpowered hardware, so it brings into question Switch longevity.

I think as a platform the Switch serves as a nice complement right now to the PS4. But that can easily change with market shifts, like if Sony introduces a way to allow for portable PS4 play.
I don't think using Labo is useful for judging the Switch's casual adoption. It's an entirely new IP/concept, at a very high price.
Super Mario Party and Pokémon should do a much better job. Specially this Pokémon, since it's unattractive to the hardcore.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
That's what the data suggests to me, although impossible to prove 100%.



Well shoot. That's a tough one to know for sure. So, I keep having to write release notes about how game X is the best-selling game in whatever genre game X is in or the best-selling version of any game in the X franchise. But is that because of this expanded audience, or shrinking AAA release count, or perhaps one of a number of other factors? I'm not sure. And I don't have a data based breakdown of Fortnite players vs non-Fortnite players to compare things like tie ratios. So, I don't know. My hunch is that big mass market games will benefit, but I just don't know for sure.



Well I think we have to wait and see if the dynamics that have occurred on Twitch between PUBG Fortnite and COD play out in sales as well. To this point, I don't think any particular games have been significantly impacted in a negative way. But we have a lot of the year left to play out.

Thanks Matt !

Maybe a good way to have an idea would be to compare the attach-rate of evergreen games. For example, maybe Mario Kart 8 has a better attach-rate since Fortnite launch last June ? Ditto with GTAV ?

Rest of the year will be interesting but schedule is packed it will be difficult to separate Fortnite effect from the effect of the packed schedule (BOPS4, RDR2, BF5...)
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Maybe a good way to have an idea would be to compare the attach-rate of evergreen games. For example, maybe Mario Kart 8 has a better attach-rate since Fortnite launch last June ? Ditto with GTAV ?

So basically a velocity comp pre and post Fortnite momentum. I'll look, but would have to normalize for seasonality and discounting, and at that point the data gets so dirty that it'll most likely be inconclusive. I'll look at it.

as long as it's not psl

PSL people spend a lot. Some of those numbers are shocking. PSL people are like walking ATMs for businesses.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,739
Italy
Well here are NPD physical ratios relative to the original Etrian Odyssey's sell-through:

Etrian Odyssey - 100%
Etrian Odyssey 2 - 98.3%
Etrian Odyssey 3 - 64.5%

Etrian Odyssey IV and V are sold digitally so the comparison falls apart after there without Sega Atlus digital data...because digital sales can make up for any sales weakness.

But it doesn't really matter what Etrian Odyssey sells in the USA because (a) they're not hard to localize, (b) Etrian Odyssey sales are low in the West compared to Japan and (c) they use Japanese sales as the barometer for whether or not a new iteration gets greenlit. If you want to see all the sales action in the franchise, look to Japanese sales:


Japan Physical Sales:

Etrian Odyssey: 122K
Etrian Odyssey 2: 150K
Etrian Odyssey 3: 144K
Etrian Odyssey IV: 140K
Etrian Odyssey V: 124K
Etrian Odyssey X: 76K so far

Etrian Odyssey Untold: 139K
Etrian Odyssey 2 Untold: 93K

Thanks. I'm aware of Japanese sales; I've been following MC sales thread since 2005.

I was asking US sales just out of curiosity. True that Atlus cares the most about Japanese sales but localizing the game still implies the franchise sells relatively well over here.
 
Oct 28, 2017
833
Netherlands
The focus on Labo is so incredibly weird. Sure, I thought it would sell more at this point. But it hasn't. Doesn't matter. And it'll sell more in holiday or it wont. Who knows. Pokemon will expand Switch to mass market and if it doesnt nothing else will. Like Labo is this cool idea that so far hasn't found a huge audience. Like, okay? Lots of products are like this.

Anyways, Octo month 2 is interesting, and of course Madden is a key barometer for the holiday market. But someone buy coffee for the thread if we are just going to regurgitate Labo every month so everyone can stay awake.
I'll second this sentiment, for sure. The Labo circlejerk is making these threads samey as hell.
 

Deleted member 3017

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,653
I mean, Labos 3rd kit has substantially lower shipment volume than both the original kit and even the robot kit

I think that pretty much tells you what retailers think about Labos sales ceiling
Labo has yet to sell through it's original shipment. Either the Original Kit or the Robot Kit

Shipments levels for the 3rd entry are much lower

That's all that needs to be said frankly

Yeah, LABO is clearly not going to be a big hit at this point. It is what it is. I still maintain the Robot Kit was an absolutely horrible idea.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Any word on Spidey's legs so far?

Amazing

Wish I could say more about Spidey, because well it's doing God damned phenomenal, but PR is coming soon anyways

As good as you think the few physical charts you've seen are......its not the full story. Not even close
 

orochi91

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,796
Canada
I'll always wonder how much better sales could have been if SM had scored 90+ on MC.

Now we'll have to wait till SM2 to find out~~~
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,087
Amazing

Wish I could say more about Spidey, because well it's doing God damned phenomenal, but PR is coming soon anyways

As good as you think the few physical charts you've seen are......its not the full story. Not even close

Not surprising since DD is getting bigger and bigger and physical sales don't seem that down .
First parties titles that huge on DD must be making bank for the company .