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August 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 11th

P-Switch

P-Switch

Alt Account
Member
Jul 15, 2018
966
Sander VF said:
Aquamarine is most certainly not a Nintendo hater or an anti-Ninty concern troll, if that's what you're alluding to.

Neither is she some sort of a hater who berates a company's efforts to cater to any audience besides the "core" like that one guy who got banned fro talking about Labo.

She's just sceptical about LABO.
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Never said she was any of that. That's why I said it's fascinating how much she brings up this one particular product. It's just a specifically, unique obesssion on a particular product (again...something that would be brought up about any poster who consistently goes into multiple threads "concern trolling" a particular product)

But hey, I'll lay off. Just peruse the June NPD results thread if you want to see the trajectory her Labo postings usually go.

I really don't know why she expects (pretends to expect) August Labo sales to be different from July Labo sales to be different from June Labo sales...no one else is. Are they?
 
Jawbreaker

Jawbreaker

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,411
New York City
P-Switch said:
Is it?

There has been a couple of previous NPD threads where Aqua has stormed out of the discussions, threatening to discontinue posting because of many posters accusing her of "Labo trolling"

I honestly don't know why she keeps banging that drum still.

Every NPD thread she brings up her "concern Labo trolling"...often with absolutely no preceding context, just out of the blue. I get she's an NPD insider, but so is Matt, and he doesn't feel compelled to talk about low Labo sales every month. He rationally has said we probably need to wait till the holidays to adequately assess Labo success.

It's fascinating Aqua's consistency in bringing up Labo. If this isn't trolling, it sure is a an unhealthy obsession considering it's brought her grief in multiple threads.

If there was another videogame product she always brought up to highlight in NPD threads (good or bad)...maybe it would help. But she goes out of her way to talk about her Labo concern. Every month.

This isn't meant to be an attack...people on this forum always call out other posters who do this kind of thing constantly. Right?
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The hell is your problem? Aqua is one of the most valuable posters in these sales threads, and she's in a position to have a good idea of how it's selling/what the stock situation is. I'm not confident at all that it's going to sell during the holiday period, either. Interest levels are weak, and no self-respecting kid is going to be asking for Labo over Pokemon or Smash this holiday season.

I'd ask why you're so bothered by her posts, but your post history speaks for itself.
 
Sander VF

Sander VF

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
25,970
Tbilisi, Georgia
P-Switch said:
Never said she was any of that. That's why I said it's fascinating how much she brings up this one particular product. It's just a specifically, unique obesssion on a particular product (again...something that would be brought up about any poster who consistently goes into multiple threads "concern trolling" a particular product)

But hey, I'll lay off. Just peruse the June NPD results thread if you want to see the trajectory her Labo postings usually go.

I really don't know why she expects (pretends to expect) August Labo sales to be different from July Labo sales to be different from June Labo sales...no one else is. Are they?
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I think it's that LABO is a unique product without precedent and she's interested in it's trajectory.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,903
Pablo Mesa said:
initial shipment =/= success or lack of it.

Labo sitting on shelves only means retailers overstocked, whether or not whatever that was enough or not to turn in a profit given sales, and dev cost is Nintendo, which iirc was positive so far.
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Keep on moving those goal posts. It's all the retailers fault? Evil Nintendo tricked them into overstocking? What a great partner that is.

I'll stick with common sense. It's obvious that both Nintendo and retailers thought Labo was going to be bigger than what it was. They both had higher expectations.

As benji already provided there was a sharp pullback for Labo 3. I don't think that's a good sign either.
 
P-Switch

P-Switch

Alt Account
Member
Jul 15, 2018
966
Jawbreaker said:
The hell is your problem? Aqua is one of the most valuable posters in these sales threads, and she's in a position to have a good idea of how it's selling/what the stock situation is. I'm not confident at all that it's going to sell during the holiday period, either. Interest levels are weak, and no self-respecting kid is going to be asking for Labo over Pokemon or Smash this holiday season.

I'd ask why you're so bothered by her posts, but your post history speaks for itself.
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Sander VF said:
I think it's that LABO is a unique product without precedent and she's interested in it's trajectory.
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Uh yea...this is the last I'm responding to this. This thread doesn't need to be derailed by Labo any more than it has, and I'm sorry for my part in perpetuating that. I fell for the concern troll baiting. Again. :/
 
slavesnyder

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,127
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
as far as i'm informed, labo is part of the recent US video games market so it can be discussed here.
pointing out poor sales or missed targets is not the same as hating a product.
discussion is boring when everyone shares the same opinion. so be grateful for disagreement and stay polite.
 
Kolx

Kolx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,505
P-Switch said:
Is it?

There has been a couple of previous NPD threads where Aqua has stormed out of the discussions, threatening to discontinue posting because of many posters accusing her of "Labo trolling"

I honestly don't know why she keeps banging that drum still.

Every NPD thread she brings up her "concern Labo trolling"...often with absolutely no preceding context, just out of the blue. I get she's an NPD insider, but so is Matt, and he doesn't feel compelled to talk about low Labo sales every month. He rationally has said we probably need to wait till the holidays to adequately assess Labo success.

It's fascinating Aqua's consistency in bringing up Labo. If this isn't trolling, it sure is a an unhealthy obsession considering it's brought her grief in multiple threads.

If there was another videogame product she always brought up to highlight in NPD threads (good or bad)...maybe it would help. But she goes out of her way to talk about her Labo concern. Every month.

This isn't meant to be an attack...people on this forum always call out other posters who do this kind of thing constantly. Right?
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No they don't, and you don't get to dictate what is discussed here by posters. If you don't want to discuss Labo performance every month then just ignore it especially when all you're going to do is attack someone else.
 
Charamiwa

Charamiwa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,056
At this point I wouldn't even expect Labo to be saved by the holidays. The third kit is coming out to no fanfare, I'm pretty sure interest is getting lower and lower.
 
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Deleted member 4976

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
P-Switch said:
Uh yea...this is the last I'm responding to this. This thread doesn't need to be derailed by Labo any more than it has, and I'm sorry for my part in perpetuating that. I fell for the concern troll baiting. Again. :/
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You didn't fall for the concern troll baiting. You tried to dictate what could be discussed even though nothing is stopping Labo discussion.

Even more so when Aqua was sharing actual numbers which we didn't have before.
 
Cthulhu_Steev

Cthulhu_Steev

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,388
P-Switch said:
Never said she was any of that. That's why I said it's fascinating how much she brings up this one particular product. It's just a specifically, unique obesssion on a particular product (again...something that would be brought up about any poster who consistently goes into multiple threads "concern trolling" a particular product)

But hey, I'll lay off. Just peruse the June NPD results thread if you want to see the trajectory her Labo postings usually go.

I really don't know why she expects (pretends to expect) August Labo sales to be different from July Labo sales to be different from June Labo sales...no one else is. Are they?
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'I'll lay off'

Then you have another go in the next sentence. Clearly, we all know yours and Aqua's post history so I know who's most valuable in this thread to me
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Charamiwa said:
At this point I wouldn't even expect Labo to be saved by the holidays. The third kit is coming out to no fanfare, I'm pretty sure interest is getting lower and lower.
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Well to be fair the first kits had basically no fanfare either. Nintendo didn't advertise them like, at all, around when they launched.

But it's interesting because the third kit looks like it's by far the best, in terms of actual game content. I bet it's going to review fairly well too. I just wonder if that will translate to sales.
 
noyram23

noyram23

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,372
P-Switch said:
Is it?

There has been a couple of previous NPD threads where Aqua has stormed out of the discussions, threatening to discontinue posting because of many posters accusing her of "Labo trolling"

I honestly don't know why she keeps banging that drum still.

Every NPD thread she brings up her "concern Labo trolling"...often with absolutely no preceding context, just out of the blue. I get she's an NPD insider, but so is Matt, and he doesn't feel compelled to talk about low Labo sales every month. He rationally has said we probably need to wait till the holidays to adequately assess Labo success.

It's fascinating Aqua's consistency in bringing up Labo. If this isn't trolling, it sure is a an unhealthy obsession considering it's brought her grief in multiple threads.

If there was another videogame product she always brought up to highlight in NPD threads (good or bad)...maybe it would help. But she goes out of her way to talk about her Labo concern. Every month.

This isn't meant to be an attack...people on this forum always call out other posters who do this kind of thing constantly. Right?
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It is an attack, the person has the right to post Labo sales because this is a sales thread. Don't be such a stan
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,903
P-Switch said:
Uh yea...this is the last I'm responding to this. This thread doesn't need to be derailed by Labo any more than it has, and I'm sorry for my part in perpetuating that. I fell for the concern troll baiting. Again. :/
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Seriously what is wrong with you? The only troll here is you and your sick obsession to try and shut down discussion about Labo. Aqua is sharing relavent information for the thread. All your doing is shitting up a discussion.
 
Elandyll

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,825
P-Switch said:
Never said she was any of that. That's why I said it's fascinating how much she brings up this one particular product. It's just a specifically, unique obesssion on a particular product (again...something that would be brought up about any poster who consistently goes into multiple threads "concern trolling" a particular product)

But hey, I'll lay off. Just peruse the June NPD results thread if you want to see the trajectory her Labo postings usually go.

I really don't know why she expects (pretends to expect) August Labo sales to be different from July Labo sales to be different from June Labo sales...no one else is. Are they?
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Just bringing in my perspective as a parent who also plays videogames and has 2 young sons who also play videogames.

If we were at all interested in Labo, Summer would be a great time to buy stuff to occupy the kids tbh.

Expecting an uptick of sales in the summer from parents for a toy visibly destined to occupy kids with a supposed "smart" building toy, linked to a very popular console, is absolutely not out of line imo.

allan-bh said:
17 million is a big number for a console in it's 5th year. Spider-Man man will have an effect on september HW sales, but I don't think is the case of holidays sales being signifcantly bigger just because of the game.
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I think the Q3 sales will massively depend on Sony's willingness to price the console at $199, and for how long / enough stock.
The other factors (besode software association, which is particularly strong this year), I see potential bundles having an effect.

I see a $249 Spiderman or GoW bundle/ $249 Bloodborne+ Horizon + GTS bundle / $199 console alone trifecta selling gangbusters.

GoW and Spidey will keep on trucking and possibly win a metric ton of Gotys.
The other big unknown is just how well RDR2 will be received I think. If it ends up an instant classic (and 95+ MC) like GTAV, and Sony got a ton of PS4- linked ads going (possibly a bundle), the sky's (and stocks) the limit imo.
 
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v_iHuGi

v_iHuGi

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,155
Benji said:
Labo has yet to sell through it's original shipment. Either the Original Kit or the Robot Kit

Shipments levels for the 3rd entry are much lower

That's all that needs to be said frankly
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Let's see if Xmas can help Labo moving all that stock.

Over here there were alot of stock for launch but it seems like it failed to meet expectations.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
P-Switch said:
Is it?

There has been a couple of previous NPD threads where Aqua has stormed out of the discussions, threatening to discontinue posting because of many posters accusing her of "Labo trolling"

I honestly don't know why she keeps banging that drum still.

Every NPD thread she brings up her "concern Labo trolling"...often with absolutely no preceding context, just out of the blue. I get she's an NPD insider, but so is Matt, and he doesn't feel compelled to talk about low Labo sales every month. He rationally has said we probably need to wait till the holidays to adequately assess Labo success.

It's fascinating Aqua's consistency in bringing up Labo. If this isn't trolling, it sure is a an unhealthy obsession considering it's brought her grief in multiple threads.

If there was another videogame product she always brought up to highlight in NPD threads (good or bad)...maybe it would help. But she goes out of her way to talk about her Labo concern. Every month.

This isn't meant to be an attack...people on this forum always call out other posters who do this kind of thing constantly. Right?
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I think you need to accept the reality and stop to blame others for your frustration or expectations... Aqua comments are fine you are out of the touch.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,903
LordKano said:
We didnt get any new reports since then, so the facts are that at the latest point of data, it was meeting expectations, and there's no basis for further developments.
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The quote specifically says they expect Labo to sell well for extended periods of time like Wii fit and brain age. It's not selling well so we know it's not performing up to par. In addition it's pretty ridiculous to have a key product not be able to sell its initial shipment with the third launch having a significant drop off in shipments.
 
Saint-14

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
So is Spider-Man still set to open bigger than GoW? +2 million opening for an exclusive would be something, when was the last one aside from Pokémon?
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Saint-14 said:
So is Spider-Man still set to open bigger than GoW? +2 million opening for an exclusive would be something, when was the last one aside from Pokémon?
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the only exclusives series who had a +2 million opening month are:

  • Halo ( 4 games)
  • Pokemon ( 2 games )
  • Super Smash Bros (1 game)
  • Gears of War (1 game)
Actually, all 4 Halo games i mentioned also surpassed the 3 million mark ( Halo 2, Halo 3, Halo reach and Halo 4).

Pokemon too had a +3 million opening ( Sun/Moon)
 
Pablo Mesa

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
MasterChumly said:
That is three months old and it's certainly not meeting the expectations outlined in the quote.
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A) moving goal post "that 3 months old
B) which of your uncles work at Nintendo for you to know what are Nintendo targets? cause again, even if you (which you dont) were to have store sales numbers. your interpretation of it is moot if you dont know what Nintendo aims are. and as LABO is not close to anything we have seen in gaming by any stretch lately, there is not proper way to gasp is the 1 or 3 or whatever units sold are actually good or bad
 
Saint-14

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
the only exclusives series who had a +2 million opening month are:

  • Halo ( 4 games)
  • Pokemon ( 2 games )
  • Super Smash Bros (1 game)
  • Gears of War (1 game)
Actually, all 4 Halo games i mentioned also surpassed the 3 million mark ( Halo 2, Halo 3, Halo reach and Halo 4).

Pokemon too had a +3 million opening ( Sun/Moon)
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Seems like they are more rare than I thought, only 2 Pokémon games doing +2 million is surprising.
 
Dwebble

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,626
Saint-14 said:
Seems like they are more rare than I thought, only 2 Pokémon games doing +2 million is surprising.
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Bear in mind that the Pokémon titles are recorded separately (ie. Sun was a separate number than Moon).

If they were combined, there would be significantly more that crossed the threshold.
 
Visanideth

Visanideth

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
4,771
MatPiscatella said:
They certainly do not have the right to post proprietary sales data. Let me be clear on that point.
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1365862385_565630433.gif
 

Zelas

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,020
Pablo Mesa said:
A) moving goal post "that 3 months old
B) which of your uncles work at Nintendo for you to know what are Nintendo targets? cause again, even if you (which you dont) were to have store sales numbers. your interpretation of it is moot if you dont know what Nintendo aims are. and as LABO is not close to anything we have seen in gaming by any stretch lately, there is not proper way to gasp is the 1 or 3 or whatever units sold are actually good or bad
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The aim outlined in the quote provided publicly is not being met. Unless you think LABO is selling like crazy, throughout the summer as quoted, and was somehow still over shipped to a point where stock is sitting then its pretty easy to see that the goal of selling like a Wii Fit or Brain age over an extended period of time, in target seasons, is not being met.

You're actually moving the goalpost in saying that conclusion isnt legitimate merely because we don't have exact unit sales, even though they're not needed to see if the quoted aims, not specific sales targets, are being met. They could have had an early sale spike that helped them reach a unit target but that wouldnt represent selling well over an extended period of time.
 
Pablo Mesa

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
Zelas said:
You're actually moving the goalpost in saying that conclusion isnt legitimate merely because we don't have exact unit sales
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no im saying that even if we were to have sales data, we dont have sales goals from Nintendo, and cause Labo is something so different from traditional games. we cant make a proper guess or what sales goal would be.

ergo having sales data alone is not possible to know if labo is a success or not for Nintendo.
 
bane833

bane833

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
4,530
Aquamarine said:
Labo's sell-through weakness is echoed across European territories. The reason I point out Labo sales so much is because I am concerned about Nintendo's weakness in developing the casual market on the Switch. Labo was intended to be a key driver of casual adoption this year, so to see it underwhelm at retailers is a unique phenomenon not because of what it says about Labo, but what it says about the future of the Switch.

I think any healthy platform needs a diverse and wide-ranging audience, especially something like the Switch. The more polarized the Switch becomes towards the hardcore, the more precarious of a situation they put themselves in. The hardcore audience is loyal but fickle. There's no guarantee they will stick with underpowered hardware, so it brings into question Switch longevity.

I think as a platform the Switch serves as a nice complement right now to the PS4. But that can easily change with market shifts, like if Sony introduces a way to allow for portable PS4 play.
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I doubt people care that much about the hardware strength of a Nintendo console. What they want is a strong software lineup that they can't get on other consoles. That's what Nintendo needs to focus on after their weak showing in 2018.
 
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