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NPD: As of the end of Q1 (March 2018?), ~70% of US Switch owners also owned a PS4 and/or XB1

UltraMagnus

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
Switch is a core centric platform, the days of Nintendo getting by on kids/casuals are over. The smartphone/tablet has irrevocably changed that market segment forever.

Switch is showing Nintendo a new path and this is a net positive for Nintendo in the end. It will mean not only better hardware sales (Switch will outsell the Wii IMO) but better software sales also and a healthier overall software ecosystem for third parties.

Majority of Nintendo fans today are adults, it was just a matter of time because you have so many "generations" now of past Nintendo fans who aren't kids anymore. They outnumber any current number of kids that would be interested in a Nintendo system. Casuals? iPhone gaming is all 90% of them will ever need, so that's a limited market the whole "yeah but what about those casuals that just need a Joycon in their life too!" is such a smaller subset of that market.

You look at the top 10 software sellers for Switch and its nothing like the Wii, things like Just Dance and Go Vacation would be much bigger sellers if it was, even 1,2 Switch largely benefits from being the only other launch title that had any marketing behind it but the rest of the top 10 are all standard core games.

I have a Switch + XBox One X but I play my Switch more, I wouldn't be surprised if the gaming split is higher than people think as well (in favor of Switch).
 
Gxgear

Gxgear

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,160
Vancouver
I think most of us understand that Nintendo was bringing its history of handheld excellence with the introduction of a hybrid console. As someone who's never owned a Nintendo home console (but all of the handhelds), that was the deciding factor for me.
 

Mysterio79

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,159
This it why it baffles me how third parties try to act like it's a different audience when it's literally just the exact same audience who want to play games on the go.
 
Jaded Alyx

Jaded Alyx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
35,374
Joseki said:
Hopefully this kills the idea of the "Nintendo player" as someone who lives on a hill and only plays first party Nintendo titles for his entire life.



But I guess it won't.
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Should also kill the "Switch owners bought this game because they were starved of anything to play".

But it won't.
 
UltraMagnus

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
If anything I think the long term trend may show Nintendo that they could get a bigger slice of that 3rd party pie if they want it. I would buy every 3rd party game on the Switch if a decent version of it was possible. We already see with indie games if the experience is comparable to other platforms, lots of people choose Switch over the other systems.

Switch is a more core centric platform. The main hold up is the chipset being a bit of a tough go for some PS4/XB1 ports, but a Switch Pro could be a game changer in that regard. Even if PS5/Scarlett come out, it will be some time before IMO most devs transition solely to PS5/Scarlett only, PS4/XB1 will be supported probably well through 2022.
 

Deleted member 135

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,682
FrostyLemon said:
Well if that percentage is similar worldwide then thats 14 million-ish people who own a ps4/xbox and Switch. So then you just have to compare that to the amount of users on PS4 and Xbox One.
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So if we make these assumptions and my math is correct (which to fair it very well could not be) only 17% of PS4 owners also own a Switch?

Or probably less as the OP stated 70% of Switch owners also own a PS4 or Xbox.
 
UltraMagnus

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
TheMisterManGuy said:
We don't know that yet. Labo's not meant to be an instant hit. It's something that's meant to grow as a series.
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The fact that the Switch is selling just fine without the mythical "casual killer app" just goes to show it's not needed in the first place.

Switch will beat the Wii and it will do it without that type of software playing a central role.
 
fbnaulin

fbnaulin

Member
Mar 15, 2018
282
I cannot say wich is my main between Xbox One X and Nintendo Switch.
I'd just love to have more time to take the juice of both of them.
 
TheMisterManGuy

TheMisterManGuy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,766
UltraMagnus said:
The fact that the Switch is selling just fine without the mythical "casual killer app" just goes to show it's not needed in the first place.

Switch will beat the Wii and it will do it without that type of software playing a central role.
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You still don't get it. To Nintendo, having a lopsided audience isn't a good thing. They want everyone to enjoy their products. All stats like this are going to do, is drive them to produce more casual oriented content/mobile influenced content. It's not going to result in the delusional hardcore utopia you desperately want. And this isn't a bad thing. Having a balanced and diverse consumer base leads to a much more diverse audience.

UltraMagnus said:
Switch is showing Nintendo a new path and this is a net positive for Nintendo in the end. It will mean not only better hardware sales (Switch will outsell the Wii IMO) but better software sales also and a healthier overall software ecosystem for third parties.
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You can still do that with a healthy casual user-base.

UltraMagnus said:
Majority of Nintendo fans today are adults, it was just a matter of time because you have so many "generations" now of past Nintendo fans who aren't kids anymore. They outnumber any current number of kids that would be interested in a Nintendo system. Casuals? iPhone gaming is all 90% of them will ever need, so that's a limited market the whole "yeah but what about those casuals that just need a Joycon in their life too!" is such a smaller subset of that market.
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You must be really out of touch with children. Granted, I'm not claiming to be in tune with today's kids either, but I'm pretty sure kids are just like any other consumers, they like different things and experiences to go along with their smartphones. What exactly about the Switch or Nintendo is it that is not appealing to kids today? It's got two candy colored controllers for multiplayer with a sibling, parent, or friend. That's something kids certainly love.

As for casuals, again, same deal, what about the Switch isn't appealing to them. It's got two non-intimidating, motion sensitive controllers you can use for multiplayer, and play fun simple games anywhere you go. The best part about the Switch is that you don't need to own one to enjoy it. If you have a gamer friend or someone who has one on hand, you two can play a game anywhere.

UltraMagnus said:
You look at the top 10 software sellers for Switch and its nothing like the Wii, things like Just Dance and Go Vacation would be much bigger sellers if it was, even 1,2 Switch largely benefits from being the only other launch title that had any marketing behind it but the rest of the top 10 are all standard core games.
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Go Vacation is a poor example as it was a game that was just announced and released with zero build up or marketing. Just Dance actually managed to dethrone the Wii as the top platform for the series last year. And as the sales of 1-2 Switch, Mario Kart, and Labo show, there is an audience for these games on Switch. It just needs to grow.

Hieroph said:
Yeeeaah... Nintendo is still supporting it so obviously they want to see how it does in the long run, but I'm sure they would have been happier if it had been an instant hit.
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Nintendo never wanted an instant hit. They typically have very conservative sales estimates, and for a product that's meant to be refreshed with new content on a regular basis like Labo, those sales estimates are way lower than something like a Mario or Smash Bros. I'm sure they would've been estatic that it blew their expectations away out of the gate, but 1.39 million is a good enough start to continue perusing the line.
 
UltraMagnus

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
TheMisterManGuy said:
You still don't get it. To Nintendo, having a lopsided audience isn't a good thing. They want everyone to enjoy their products. All stats like this are going to do, is drive them to produce more casual oriented content/mobile influenced content. It's not going to result in the delusional hardcore utopia you desperately want. And this isn't a bad thing. Having a balanced and diverse consumer base leads to a much more diverse audience.



You can still do that with a healthy casual user-base.



You must be really out of touch with children. Granted, I'm not claiming to be in tune with today's kids either, but I'm pretty sure kids are just like any other consumers, they like different things and experiences to go along with their smartphones. What exactly about the Switch or Nintendo is it that is not appealing to kids today? It's got two candy colored controllers for multiplayer with a sibling, parent, or friend. That's something kids certainly love.

As for casuals, again, same deal, what about the Switch isn't appealing to them. It's got two non-intimidating, motion sensitive controllers you can use for multiplayer, and play fun simple games anywhere you go. The best part about the Switch is that you don't need to own one to enjoy it. If you have a gamer friend or someone who has one on hand, you two can play a game anywhere.



Go Vacation is a poor example as it was a game that was just announced and released with zero build up or marketing. Just Dance actually managed to dethrone the Wii as the top platform for the series last year. And as the sales of 1-2 Switch, Mario Kart, and Labo show, there is an audience for these games on Switch. It just needs to grow.
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Or maybe it's your view of what Nintendo needs to do to be successful that needs to grow. The balance is not unhealthy of the current Switch, I'd say it's actually quite healthy because you have a rabid software sales, Zelda: BoTW is going to destroy Twilight Princess for example. Mario Kart 8D if eventually bundled with Switch the way the Wii had MK bundles could match MK even on Wii. You have things like Octopath Traveller crushing 1 million in a matter of weeks.

What does that tell you?

Nintendo will adjust to having a "lop sided audience" (as you call it) and will come to realize in the long run that it makes them tons of money and there's nothing wrong with that. Such a split being an automatic negative doesn't make it a reality. It just means Switch is a different kind of product than the Wii. Very different.

Nintendo will always have a good section of kids, BUT I think what we are seeing is the beginning of the adult Nintendo fanbase simply being too large for any generation of "kids" to outnumber. Even Wii/DS "kids" are now entering adulthood, combined with the millions of adult Nintendo fans from the NES/SNES/GB/GBA/N64/GCN eras + Pokemon kids from 18-20 years ago ... that's just the majority Nintendo demographic now.

There simply isn't enough 5-14 year olds to outnumber the 16-40+ year olds, not when Nintendo has by now like multiple generations of adult fans.
 
Sphinx

Sphinx

Member
Nov 29, 2017
2,377
one thing to consider is that the Switch is, as of now, the one and single heir to both Nintendo and Sony portables.

you want something after a 3DS or a Vita? it's switch or nothing else.

I was a PS4-3DS gamer, now I am a PS4-Switch gamer.

when there's no handhelds, the gaming world notices.
 
CommodoreKong

CommodoreKong

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,709
I own a Switch but instead of a PS4 or Xbox One I have a gaming PC. I'm really happy with the combo and they compliment each other pretty well.
 
Slam Tilt

Slam Tilt

Member
Jan 16, 2018
5,585
EvilBoris said:
Does that mean that 30% of Switch owners aren't realy gamers?
Go on, hands up, who here isn't a realy gamer?
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Yo.

And if being a "gamer" means calling people "real gamers" for what games or consoles they play, then count me out.

Hieroph said:
Yeeeaah... Nintendo is still supporting it so obviously they want to see how it does in the long run, but I'm sure they would have been happier if it had been an instant hit.
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Anyone who's been watching the industry knows by now that Nintendo is always in it for the long haul.
 
That Naive Cube!!

That Naive Cube!!

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,818
Not a fan of the "complementary" usage here in regards to the switch. Comes off as condescending, really.

I have all the consoles and they all complement each other:

--PS4: Sony Exclusives
--Switch: Nintendo Exclusives
--Xbox: Microsoft exclusives and the best place to play third party games
 

Mysterio79

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,159
To be honest I don't see the Switch as a complimentary device.

It's my main device and I would play all my games on it if they were all available.

I just find it a more accessible, convenient way to play. I barely notice the graphical differences that I find people magnify here in games like Wolfenstein 2 and Doom and would take that minimal tradeoff to be able to play ALL of my games on the convenience of the Switch in a heartbeat.

So the Switch is not a complimentary device to me, the other devices are just an inconvenience I feel I'm stuck with until all the games I want are on a Switch like device.
 
TheMisterManGuy

TheMisterManGuy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,766
UltraMagnus said:
Or maybe it's your view of what Nintendo needs to do to be successful that needs to grow. The balance is not unhealthy of the current Switch, I'd say it's actually quite healthy because you have a rabid software sales, Zelda: BoTW is going to destroy Twilight Princess for example. Mario Kart 8D if eventually bundled with Switch the way the Wii had MK bundles could match MK even on Wii. You have things like Octopath Traveller crushing 1 million in a matter of weeks.
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Yeah, software sales are great, but companies should be expecting growth, they should be trying to see how far they can push themselves. And that comes from cultivating a more diverse audience. I mean, don't you want Nintendo to try and see them top their goals each year.

UltraMagnus said:
Nintendo will adjust to having a "lop sided audience" (as you call it) and will come to realize in the long run that it makes them tons of money and there's nothing wrong with that. Such a split being an automatic negative doesn't make it a reality. It just means Switch is a different kind of product than the Wii. Very different.
Click to expand...
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You really don't get how Nintendo operates do you? They won't just be contempt with a small hardcore audience enjoying their products, they want everyone to enjoy them, even people who don't play console games. It's rooted into the company's creative ethos, and its never going away no matter how much you want it to. Nintendo was never hardcore, even back during the Famicom days.

UltraMagnus said:
Nintendo will always have a good section of kids, BUT I think what we are seeing is the beginning of the adult Nintendo fanbase simply being too large for any generation of "kids" to outnumber. Even Wii/DS "kids" are now entering adulthood, combined with the millions of adult Nintendo fans from the NES/SNES/GB/GBA/N64/GCN eras + Pokemon kids from 18-20 years ago ... that's just the majority Nintendo demographic now.
Click to expand...
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You realize kids are born every minnute on the minnute every fucking day do you? There's always a large audience who's ready to be introduced to Nintendo products, and as long as babies are born, that audience isn't going away. Yes, it's important to "Grow up" with your audience to an extent as they get older, but getting new generations in at a young age in swarms is equally important.

UltraMagnus said:
There simply isn't enough 5-14 year olds to outnumber the 16-40+ year olds, not when Nintendo has by now like multiple generations of adult fans.
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You don't seem to get how audience re-population works. When a new generation of kids comes along, chances are, a good majority of them will start out with Nintendo products, a good number of them will stay with Nintendo even through adulthood, then the cycle starts a new.

Also, you didn't answer my question. What about the Switch makes it unappealing to kids or casual gamers?

H-I-M said:
Y'all is still going with this 'Labo sales will magically rise come December 2020' narrative?
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It's pretty common knowledge that sales will increase and interest will grow as new kits are introduced, and more marketing events are ran. Labo only has two kits so far, and both of them aside from garage, aren't something you'd want to go back to for months or years. Remember, Nintendo is looking at Labo as a line of toys, not as game releases. Thus sales expectations will be different. As for whether they'll get a boost at Christmas, that depends on how hard Nintendo pushes it and the new Vehicle Kit.
 

Deleted member 38706

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 19, 2018
924
Sphinx said:
one thing to consider is that the Switch is, as of now, the one and single heir to both Nintendo and Sony portables.

you want something after a 3DS or a Vita? it's switch or nothing else.

I was a PS4-3DS gamer, now I am a PS4-Switch gamer.

when there's no handhelds, the gaming world notices.
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Yep. It's the only handheld left. It's all or nothing... I don't want it to just be a "Nintendo machine" like some do. If it has lackluster third-party support, then handheld gamers will suffer from it. It's the only option left for us. It's great that it's complimentary console, but it needs to be more. It needs more support so handheld gamers have the option to play what they want on it.
 
UltraMagnus

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
Mysterio79 said:
To be honest I don't see the Switch as a complimentary device.

It's my main device and I would play all my games on it if they were all available.

I just find it a more accessible, convenient way to play. I barely notice the graphical differences that I find people magnify here in games like Wolfenstein 2 and Doom and would take that minimal tradeoff to be able to play ALL of my games on the convenience of the Switch in a second.

So the Switch is not a complimentary device to me, the other devices are just an inconvenience I feel I'm stuck with until all the games I want are on a Switch like device.
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Yeah I think so too. I would buy pretty much every multi-plat if it was available on Switch.

Switch has the same demographic appeal of the PS4. When Nintendo can iterate on this concept and get a wider variety of games, I think you will see them gobble up more and more of the 3rd party software pie in the same way Switch is eating up the indie market.

If a Switch Pro can run PS4/XB1 ports, I think the software sales of such an interation are gonna be through the roof. Give people a choice between a version they can play at home + on the road versus just stuck at home but slightly better graphics and I think Switch will start winning that choice for many gamers, much in the same way the iPod/MP3 overtook higher quality sounding CDs.
 
KINGOFSHIBUYA Ltd.

KINGOFSHIBUYA Ltd.

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,959
Osaka, Osaka
Hmm, I was hoping there would be more people who might normally not play games, but picked up a Switch.
~70% already owning a console means that's not true.

I'm in that 70%. I have a PS4 already.
 
TuMekeNZ

TuMekeNZ

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,278
Auckland, New Zealand
Was 1X/Pro now Switch/Pro and love it. Switch is my secondary system although I have been using it a lot more recently than my Pro. Today will change that with Spider Man getting into my hands in an hour, but Switch is such a great system and pretty much a must have as far as I'm concerned.
 
UltraMagnus

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
TheMisterManGuy said:
Yeah, software sales are great, but companies should be expecting growth, they should be trying to see how far they can push themselves. And that comes from cultivating a more diverse audience. I mean, don't you want Nintendo to try and see them top their goals each year.



You really don't get how Nintendo operates do you? They won't just be contempt with a small hardcore audience enjoying their products, they want everyone to enjoy them, even people who don't play console games. It's rooted into the company's creative ethos, and its never going away no matter how much you want it to. Nintendo was never hardcore, even back during the Famicom days.



You realize kids are born every minnute on the minnute every fucking day do you? There's always a large audience who's ready to be introduced to Nintendo products, and as long as babies are born, that audience isn't going away. Yes, it's important to "Grow up" with your audience to an extent as they get older, but getting new generations in at a young age in swarms is equally important.



You don't seem to get how audience re-population works. When a new generation of kids comes along, chances are, a good majority of them will start out with Nintendo products, a good number of them will stay with Nintendo even through adulthood, then the cycle starts a new.
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Software sales will grow and expand so will hardware sales. You make it sound like systems like PS4 just plateau when in actuality it was the Wii that plateaued and faded out hard in the back half of its life cycle.

I know Nintendo quite well actually, I've been following Nintendo since the days when you had to get gaming news through your EGM and Next Generation magazines. Nintendo will eventually adjust and embrace the Switch for being different even if their initial projection for it was a bit different. They always do that so long as the product is commercially successful.

Kids can be born every minute, but for starters newborns don't play consoles. Second not all those kids will buy a Nintendo system, in fact probably a majority won't. Thirdly the adult Nintendo fanbase is not static, that's my point. It's growing. Every year for the next several years more and more Wii/DS "kids" will be turning 18+ and buying into the Switch ecosystem.

If anything, there is bumper crop of millions more adults entering adulthood coming on up thanks to the Wii/DS era now being 10-12 years ago. The 8 year old who got a DS even in late 2009, well he'll be turning 18+ soon. It simply adds up and the proof is in the pudding, the Switch demographics reflect what I'm saying.
 
zoltek

zoltek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,917
Umm, how exactly does NPD's Games Acquisition Monitor know this? Do they have access to credit card (or other personal ID) linked to a particular purchase? Or was this info gained via survey?
 
TheMisterManGuy

TheMisterManGuy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,766
UltraMagnus said:
You make it sound like systems like PS4 just plateau when in actuality it was the Wii that plateaued and faded out hard in the back half of its life cycle.
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Maybe that's because Nintendo killed it early with no evolution to the hardware or software lineup, and the fact that they followed it up with a nonsensical and needlessly complicated successor that had nothing to do with the original concept to begin with. Wii died because of Nintendo's incompetence, not because of some mythical fad. PlayStation consoles don't have that problem because Sony gives them excellent post-gen support with new games still releasing somewhat regularly even years after the next console hits stores.

UltraMagnus said:
I know Nintendo quite well actually, I've been following Nintendo since the days when you had to get gaming news through your EGM and Next Generation magazines. Nintendo will eventually adjust and embrace the Switch for being different even if their initial projection for it was a bit different. They always do that so long as the product is commercially successful.
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Give an example please... Nintendo isn't a company who backs down from a creative vision easily. In fact, they rarely do. They stubbornly stick to the same vision for gaming they had since the 80s, and will only slightly change how they approach it.

UltraMagnus said:
Kids can be born every minute, but for starters newborns don't play consoles. Secondly the adult Nintendo fanbase is not static, that's my point. It's growing. Every year for the next several years more and more Wii/DS "kids" will be turning 18+ and buying into the Switch ecosystem.
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And that's also my point. How can you say that adult Nintendo fans outnumber kids, when kids are growing up on Nintendo products in equal numbers?

UltraMagnus said:
If anything, there is bumper crop of millions more adults entering adulthood coming on up thanks to the Wii/DS era now being 10-12 years ago. The 7 year old who got a DS in 2009, well he'll be turning 18+ soon. It simply adds up and the proof is in the pudding, the Switch demographics reflect what I'm saying.
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Early adopters are always adult male consumers. They're the ones who buy new tech within the first year. Everyone else, waits until a year or so for more appealing games and products to pop up. Remember, the Wii and DS both had similar numbers at launch too.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
By the end of calendar Q2, we're now estimating this number at approximately 65%, so it's come down a bit. Cross-ownership still pretty high.

zoltek said:
Umm, how exactly does NPD's Games Acquisition Monitor know this? Do they have access to credit card (or other personal ID) linked to a particular purchase? Or was this info gained via survey?
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5k household sample size survey. Done monthly, sample changes each month, normalized for a quarterly percentage.

In the future, we are moving to EEDAR's PlayerPulse, which is also survey based, don't know sample size off the top of my head, do know it's significant.

Any sample based survey will have some range of error, but we think we get in the ballpark.
 
Renna Hazel

Renna Hazel

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,574
UltraMagnus said:
Software sales will grow and expand so will hardware sales. You make it sound like systems like PS4 just plateau when in actuality it was the Wii that plateaued and faded out hard in the back half of its life cycle.

I know Nintendo quite well actually, I've been following Nintendo since the days when you had to get gaming news through your EGM and Next Generation magazines. Nintendo will eventually adjust and embrace the Switch for being different even if their initial projection for it was a bit different. They always do that so long as the product is commercially successful.

Kids can be born every minute, but for starters newborns don't play consoles. Second not all those kids will buy a Nintendo system, in fact probably a majority won't. Thirdly the adult Nintendo fanbase is not static, that's my point. It's growing. Every year for the next several years more and more Wii/DS "kids" will be turning 18+ and buying into the Switch ecosystem.

If anything, there is bumper crop of millions more adults entering adulthood coming on up thanks to the Wii/DS era now being 10-12 years ago. The 8 year old who got a DS even in late 2009, well he'll be turning 18+ soon. It simply adds up and the proof is in the pudding, the Switch demographics reflect what I'm saying.
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While I rarely agree with your views on what Nintendo should do, I really do hope they look at the market that has made the Switch successful right now and cater a bit more to that crowd. I'd really like to see more games like BotW and Odyssey, and get something of that caliber every year.

With that said, I still want my Switch Sports title and I'd bet that hits 10 million copies.
 
Jaded Alyx

Jaded Alyx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
35,374
MatPiscatella said:
By the end of calendar Q2, we're now estimating this number at approximately 65%, so it's come down a bit. Cross-ownership still pretty high.



5k household sample size survey. Done monthly, sample changes each month, normalized for a quarterly percentage.

In the future, we are moving to EEDAR's PlayerPulse, which is also survey based, don't know sample size off the top of my head, do know it's significant.

Any sample based survey will have some range of error, but we think we get in the ballpark.
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Just to clarify, this only includes consoles and not "gaming capable PCs", right?
 
gaiadyne

gaiadyne

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
1,380
Part of the 30% percent! I didn't have a TV for a while and as a mainly handheld player, I chose the Switch. Hopefully I'll finally be able to join the masses after almost 5 years soon, now that we have a 4k TV in the house.
 
CarterTax

CarterTax

Member
Oct 25, 2017
709
Not too surprising considering a host of the most popular multi-platform franchises are (still) unavailable on Switch, such as Madden, Call of Duty, MH (World), GTAV, and RDR2. You pretty much wind up owning another platform or missing out on a substantial number of critically and commercially successful pieces of software.
 
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