Movie Awards Season 2018

Sega Dreamcast said:

I'm so anxious to see A Star Is Born, First Man and Beautiful Boy.

There was a poster on here in the ASIB trailer thread who claimed to have seen the movie and said it was going to be hot garbage and a total mess. Jokes on him :P

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A lot of Oscars followers were predicting the movie to be a Glitter-tier mess for no reason, and it was widely dragged. Like come on - Lady Gaga even in her pop days was a good actress. Just look at her VMAs performance of Paparazzi - she has a knack for theatrics.

Masozi said:

Quite frankly I can count the number of potential Oscars contenders [not even for Best Picture, just in general] that are unseen on one hand (Widows, Beale Street, Backseat, Mary Queen of Scots, Beautiful Boy). And the general awards meta seems to be forming around five already-screened films (BlackKklansman, First Man, Roma, A Star is Born, The Favourite), so the oscars race has begun whether you want to admit it or not.

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Oscar race began at Sundance and Cannes. We have no real idea of knowing what though till after October. nothing has changed.

Masozi said:

A lot of Oscars followers were predicting the movie to be a Glitter-tier mess for no reason, and it was widely dragged. Like come on - Lady Gaga even in her pop days was a good actress. Just look at her VMAs performance of Paparazzi - she has a knack for theatrics.

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The constant shuffling of the release date probably didn't help. It went from September of this year to May (it would have opened the week Deadpool did) back to October (presumably once WB realized how good a movie they had on their hands and wanted to put it into the awards conversation).

hodayathink said:

The constant shuffling of the release date probably didn't help. It went from September of this year to May (it would have opened the week Deadpool did) back to October (presumably once WB realized how good a movie they had on their hands and wanted to put it into the awards conversation).

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Oh I forgot about that.

Are people not expecting Boy Erased to do much? It looks like something the Oscars would eat up and looks a damn good film as well.

Newman96 said:

Are people not expecting Boy Erased to do much? It looks like something the Oscars would eat up and looks a damn good film as well.

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I mean it's not getting the best reviews out of the contenders, but I think it's going to make it for being an "important" performance led film.

Vox Lux is getting amazing reviews but looking at the plot summary no fucking way it gets nominated for best picture. That plot just seems too edgy and weird.

Freddy=Legend said:

Phantom Thread came about 6 or 7 years too late. That movie would've swept the Oscars in a different time. But not anymore. I loved the hell out of that movie, though it had some the best acting & editing of anything in recent memory. But I knew walking out of the theatre; it would get some attention but likely not win anything.

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It was also real weird. Maybe it would have won 6 or 7 years ago but tbh Oscars were even worse then. King Speech? What a bore.

My favourite movie so far this is Hereditary, hopefully Get Out will blaze the trail for more horror movies

I'm gonna go ahead and say that Roma is the most likely winner of Best Picture looking at the buzz for it.

As for The Favourite, I really hope Yorgos Lanthimos can finally get his due recognition, but his work might be too weird for Oscar voters.

Also gonna go ahead and predict "Best animated feature"

Best Animated feature
Incredibles 2
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Isle of Dogs
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (hopefully)
(This Magnificent Cake - If the Academy makes an exception and allows sub-60 minute films)

CloudWolf said:

I'm gonna go ahead and say that Roma is the most likely winner of Best Picture looking at the buzz for it.

As for The Favourite, I really hope Yorgos Lanthimos can finally get his due recognition, but his work might be too weird for Oscar voters.

Also gonna go ahead and predict "Best animated feature"

Best Animated feature
Incredibles 2
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Isle of Dogs
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (hopefully)
(This Magnificent Cake - If the Academy makes an exception and allows sub-60 minute films)

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If they're going to nominate an anime movie they'll probably go for the safer and more commercial Mirai.

Masozi said:

If they're going to nominate an anime movie they'll probably go for the safer and more commercial Mirai.

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Does it get a US release in time, though?

CloudWolf said:

Also gonna go ahead and predict "Best animated feature"

Best Animated feature
Incredibles 2
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Isle of Dogs
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (hopefully)
(This Magnificent Cake - If the Academy makes an exception and allows sub-60 minute films)

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An anime film might actually be nominated this time if GKids can get least one nomination as usual, cause their most notable releases this year are such from the looks of it. Mirai might be a very good possibility too.

I still need to get around seeing Isle of Dogs.

CloudWolf said:

Does it get a US release in time, though?

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Being released late November. Yeah I could see it being a safer bet, then say, Night is Short, Walk on Girl (through I would love to see that nominated).

So now Best Popular Picture is out of the... picture: what happens?

Does Black Panther get nominated?

Hyped for The Favourite, but the academy will never aknowledge a Yorgos Lanthimos film, his films are just too weird xD

Bobo Dakes said:

Uh ... remind me who the target audience for Phantom Thread was?
And remember who did win last year (and I wasn't even crazy about that movie).

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The Phantom Thread is the type of movie that pisses old people off because they think it's for them but it's not.

Berto said:

Hyped for The Favourite, but the academy will never aknowledge a Yorgos Lanthimos film, his films are just too weird xD

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I think the young demographic that is expanding in the Academy will like The Favourite. And it's still kinda a costume drama, so some more traditional people might give it nods.

Masozi said:

So now Best Popular Picture is out of the... picture: what happens?

Does Black Panther get nominated?

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I think Panther gets Best VFX and some technical awards, but gets no nominations for the big prizes. It might eke out a nomination for "Best Screenplay" or "Best Supporting Actor" for MBJ, but it reasonably stands a chance for the tech awards.

torre_avenue said:

Best VFX

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Hell no, that film's VFX was widely hated, and not that good.

First Man
Annilhilation
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Deadpool 2
Solo
Avengers: Infinity War

Are all more likely bets TBH

That having been said, I think it might do well in production design and Best Song (All The Stars)

Looks like "Beautiful Boy" might not be good:

Beautiful Boy is a one-note, prosaic, on-the-nose look at drug addiction that's set up as a showcase for two fine actors. Based on complementary memoirs by a father and son played respectively by Steve Carell and Timothee Chalamet, Belgian director's Felix Van Groeningen's first American film is predictably straightforward and loaded with moments that trigger music cues for a vast array of tunes meant to relate to, or create, the mood of the moment when he hasn't been able to.

This Amazon theatrical feature outing has its selling points, particularly as Chalamet's first major outing since his career-making Call Me by Your Name, but the emotional rollercoaster ride is only observed, never felt.

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Newman96 said:

Are people not expecting Boy Erased to do much? It looks like something the Oscars would eat up and looks a damn good film as well.

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Reviews have indicated it's well made/acted but not particularly original or interesting.

torre_avenue said:

Looks like "Beautiful Boy" might not be good:

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My prediction that only one Boy would advance to the Oscars race was correct.

Granted, I thought Boy, Erased was going to be the bomba.

Also I've finally watched one of the big contenders - I saw Blackkklansman.

That movie is very very good and holy shit that ending just punched me in the gut.

The Venice Awards have been given!

Predictably, Roma won the Golden Lion. This film is a force of acclaim to be reckoned with right now.

The Favourite winning the Grand Jury Prize is more unexpected, though no complaints. The Favourite is definitely an Oscar contender. Olivia Colman also won Best Actress for this movie, so she's definitely in the race now.

Jacques Audiard won Best director for The Sisters Brothers. This one had me really shook - that film isn't even on my Oscars radar. Should it be?

Willem Dafoe got Best actor for At Eternity's Gate which is another film that I need to begin watching for Oscars, especially considering a relatively thin Actor field.

Joel and Ethan Coen got Best screenplay for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and I am not surprised. On off years for the Coen Bros, they still do well in the screenplay area.

The Nightingale got the Special Jury Prize and the Marcello Mastroianni Award for Young Performer, surprising me in a good way. I never thought in a million years Jennifer Kent would get Oscar hype for one of her films, but maybe she might now.

For those who want to keep up on Awards Season, check out the Little Gold Men podcast from Vanity Fair.

Masozi said:

The Venice Awards have been given!

Predictably, Roma won the Golden Lion. This film is a force of acclaim to be reckoned with right now.

The Favourite winning the Grand Jury Prize is more unexpected, though no complaints. The Favourite is definitely an Oscar contender. Olivia Colman also won Best Actress for this movie, so she's definitely in the race now.

Jacques Audiard won Best director for The Sisters Brothers. This one had me really shook - that film isn't even on my Oscars radar. Should it be?

Willem Dafoe got Best actor for At Eternity's Gate which is another film that I need to begin watching for Oscars, especially considering a relatively thin Actor field.

Joel and Ethan Coen got Best screenplay for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and I am not surprised. On off years for the Coen Bros, they still do well in the screenplay area.

The Nightingale got the Special Jury Prize and the Marcello Mastroianni Award for Young Performer, surprising me in a good way. I never thought in a million years Jennifer Kent would get Oscar hype for one of her films, but maybe she might now.

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Even without the Netflix issue, Roma would/will be a stretch to win Best Picture. Best Foreign Language it probably has locked unless Netflix botches the campaign, though.

And the issue with Colman comes down to how you're gonna classify the 3 actresses. For maximum exposure, you're gonna want to put someone in lead and someone in supporting, and it seems that Colman is the most obvious one to drop down to supporting based on the talk I've read/seen.

Oh shit, didn't know Barry Jenkins had a new film this year. I'll have to check it out for sure.

Haven't heard of At Eternity's Gate, but hearing that it's another Willem Dafoe showcase means it's on my radar for sure

Toni Collette better win for Hereditary

torre_avenue said:

I think Panther gets Best VFX and some technical awards, but gets no nominations for the big prizes. It might eke out a nomination for "Best Screenplay" or "Best Supporting Actor" for MBJ, but it reasonably stands a chance for the tech awards.

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lmao absolutely fucking not

A Best Screenplay nod would be cool though

Going to London film festival for the first time next month, excited to see Roma, Buster Scruggs, Beale Street and The Favourite. Got premier tickets for Outlaw King but the mixed reception means I can't see it getting awards recognition.

As a British person I would definetly love to see Olivia Coleman win the Oscar.

Dang those Outlaw King reviews sting :(

https://www.resetera.com/threads/first-reviews-for-steve-mcqueens-‘widows’.67462/

Widows is doing solidly in reviews. I knew this would be a serious contender.

Eighth Grade needs to win for sound mixing, because that shit was amazing / hilarious.

Newman96 said:

Are people not expecting Boy Erased to do much? It looks like something the Oscars would eat up and looks a damn good film as well.

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The film will most likely land some nominations for best actor and supporting actor. Same with Lucas Hedges two films releasing later this fall.

By all accounts both Barry Jenkins' 'If Beale Street Could Talk' is rather good. Not as rapturously received as Moonlight was but it'll probably still be a whole thing.

Indiewire
The Guardian
The Playlist
Hollywood Reporter
Variety

Also, not many reviews out yet, but people On Twitter seemed to really love Jonah Hill's 'Mid 90s'. I don't suspect it'll be a very awardsy film beyond maybe a screenplay nomination but I'm glad it's good, that trailer really struck a nerve for me.

Masozi said:

The Venice Awards have been given!

Predictably, Roma won the Golden Lion. This film is a force of acclaim to be reckoned with right now.

The Favourite winning the Grand Jury Prize is more unexpected, though no complaints. The Favourite is definitely an Oscar contender. Olivia Colman also won Best Actress for this movie, so she's definitely in the race now.

Jacques Audiard won Best director for The Sisters Brothers. This one had me really shook - that film isn't even on my Oscars radar. Should it be?

Willem Dafoe got Best actor for At Eternity's Gate which is another film that I need to begin watching for Oscars, especially considering a relatively thin Actor field.

Joel and Ethan Coen got Best screenplay for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and I am not surprised. On off years for the Coen Bros, they still do well in the screenplay area.

The Nightingale got the Special Jury Prize and the Marcello Mastroianni Award for Young Performer, surprising me in a good way. I never thought in a million years Jennifer Kent would get Oscar hype for one of her films, but maybe she might now.

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Really happy for The Favourite. I think it will surprise people who are writing it off as a period piece oscar bait.

ArmsofSleep said:

Really happy for The Favourite. I think it will surprise people who are writing it off as a period piece oscar bait.

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who called it Oscar bait? surely can't be any critics saying this

Flow said:

who called it Oscar bait? surely can't be any critics saying this

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No, not at all it's more casual film fans just seeing the trailer and calling it a typical period piece. Which just has to be people unfamiliar with the director

You know what?

With a vast majority of contenders screened (If Beale Street Could Talk and Widows being two of the last major unseen ones), let's predict the Best Picture nominations.

I'll be generous and say that we'll assume 10 films would be nominated.

1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. The Favourite
6. BlackKklansman
7. Widows
8. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9. Boy Erased
10. Green Book

The first 5 I feel are solid locks, and 6-8 I feel are pretty likely.

For the last two, I played it real safe. Boy Erased seems like a good enough "issue movie" that will get in out of straight people feeling guilty, as well as good performances.

Green Book I don't think looks that good. But this kind of safe, middle-of-the-road, crowd-pleasing film does well in the Oscars. It deals with race in a way that isn't confronting or impactful at all. I can slot this movie very neatly into a canon of Oscar bait - Driving Miss Daisy being the most obvious thematic comparison. But in recent years, The Blind Side, The Help, and Hidden Figures have proven there's a niche for this kind of movie in the Oscars.

The two question marks that didn't make my top 10 are Black Panther and Vice. Vice isn't here because it hasn't been screened yet, and Black Panther because I don't think superhero movies are going to make the Oscars quite yet, especially with how dicey the Best Popular Picture situation was.

I agree with your first 5, but after that, I don't know. I really don't see Can You Ever Forgive Me making it, I think they'll be happy with giving McCarthy a Best Actress nomination, and maybe a supporting actor nod depending on how the rest of the season goes. Green Book and Boy Erased, though, I think nether of those really has the widespread acclaim necessary to make it all the way Best Picture. Even if I didn't think Black Panther has a serious shot (I do), I'd bet more on something well regarded and distributed by one of the smaller boutique studios like A24 or Neon before I picked either of those movies.

hodayathink said:

I agree with your first 5, but after that, I don't know. I really don't see Can You Ever Forgive Me making it, I think they'll be happy with giving McCarthy a Best Actress nomination, and maybe a supporting actor nod depending on how the rest of the season goes. Green Book and Boy Erased, though, I think nether of those really has the widespread acclaim necessary to make it all the way Best Picture. Even if I didn't think Black Panther has a serious shot (I do), I'd bet more on something well regarded and distributed by one of the smaller boutique studios like A24 or Neon before I picked either of those movies.

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Every year in the oscars a couple of not-super acclaimed films sneak in because they're Oscar bait pandering. Last year it was Darkest Hour and arguably The Post. My little canon of The Blind Side, The Help, and Hidden figures is another example.

Quite frankly I wish I could be cool and say the 9 and 10 are Black Panther and First Reformed. But I feel there is going to be a reactionary sect that wants to stay in their bubble.

For films to be nominated for Best Picture, all they have to do is get enough nomination votes. This means if a film grabs one section of the academy, it'll get nominated.

I feel like Wildlife is being a little overlooked considering it got sky high praise at Sundance. It's by Paul Dano and has a few big names on it. Probably doesn't have the production backing to get any big award attention aside from maybeee a screenplay. So I answered my own question.

Surprised to see basically every hyped movie getting praise. Roma is probably gonna be the big winner.

If we're picking a top 10 at the moment, rather than how many specific films will be nominated, I'll say something like:

1. Roma
2. A Star is Born
3. The Favourite
4. Vice/whatever they end up calling that thing
5. First Man
6. If Beale Street Could Talk
7. Widows
8. BlacKkKlansman
9. Black Panther
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Green Book and Boy Erased are my next ones up, they're the type of thing that absolutely does worm its way into the nominations usually but I'm not sure what, yet, out of that top list they would replace.

Ultimately, unless something wild happens or something else picks up a ton of steam, I think the race to win will basically come down to the top two.

I find interest in looking up who and what won Oscars, but I have next to no interest in the other awards shows, or actually watching an awards show. They're awfully boring and pretentious.

I need to see some of these movies still, starting with Eighth Grade, which is most important.

Cool, I haven't heard about Roma.

Curious about First Man but it looks like a command from a studio.

I just want to see Toni Collette with at least a nomination for Hereditary. She was incredible.

Anyone else not really feeling this awards season yet? I know it's early but coming out of Venice/TIFF there's not a lot that's getting me majorly excited. There's a lot of stuff that looks like decent 7-8/10 but little that inspires me to get hype. Feels weird.

shaneo632 said:

Anyone else not really feeling this awards season yet? I know it's early but coming out of Venice/TIFF there's not a lot that's getting me majorly excited. There's a lot of stuff that looks like decent 7-8/10 but little that inspires me to get hype. Feels weird.

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I'm kinda the opposite. Last year wasn't great - Shape of Water, Get Out, Dunkirk, and Lady bird aside (I can't get into CMBYN because age gap relationships kinda give trauma flashbacks to being groomed, sorry).

This year looks way better. BlackKklansman was a great movie and that was only the season getting started. A star is born, Roma, The Favourite, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Widows - these are all movies I want to see. And there's no obvious stinkers in the season so far - no Darkest hour type films I have to pray get ignored in Oscar buzz.

shaneo632 said:

Anyone else not really feeling this awards season yet? I know it's early but coming out of Venice/TIFF there's not a lot that's getting me majorly excited. There's a lot of stuff that looks like decent 7-8/10 but little that inspires me to get hype. Feels weird.

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ah i don't know, there's a lot of stuff from venice & tiff beyond the obvious awardsy films that i'm super interested in, like Vox Lux, High Life, Suspiria, The Sisters Brothers, At Eternity's Gate, Wildlife, The Old Man and the Gun.

Even of the clear-cut contenders I'm really looking forward to The Favourite (i'm a huge Yorgos Lanthimos fan, so obviously), Roma, If Beale Street Could Talk, Widows, whatever the Adam McKay Dick Cheney film turns out to be.

My top 10 (in what I think will get nominated):

- A Star is Born
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- First Man
- Boy Erased
- Black Panther
- Roma

I think The Favourite will prove to be a bit too weird for the Oscar crowd, even though it sort of checks a lot of other boxes. The first three I have are the only ones I'm totally sold out.

I was thinking about Widows, but reviews from a lot of critics have been mixed, and I think it may lean a little too Michael Mann to really capture the imagination of the Oscar folks.

TheBeardedOne said:

I find interest in looking up who and what won Oscars, but I have next to no interest in the other awards shows, or actually watching an awards show. They're awfully boring and pretentious.

I need to see some of these movies still, starting with Eighth Grade, which is most important.

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If anything, the Oscars are less pretentious than ever. Real art films rarely get nominated, and big box office smashes have an increasing influence on the overall process.

Masozi said:

Every year in the oscars a couple of not-super acclaimed films sneak in because they're Oscar bait pandering. Last year it was Darkest Hour and arguably The Post. My little canon of The Blind Side, The Help, and Hidden figures is another example.

Quite frankly I wish I could be cool and say the 9 and 10 are Black Panther and First Reformed. But I feel there is going to be a reactionary sect that wants to stay in their bubble.

For films to be nominated for Best Picture, all they have to do is get enough nomination votes. This means if a film grabs one section of the academy, it'll get nominated.

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The Post got in on the pedigree of its director and leads (Spielberg, Streep, Hanks). Darkest Hour was arguably the same (Oldman, Wright). Both of those movies don't have that pedigree (Farrelly and Edgerton are not regarded as well as those two).

Y'all dragged me for saying Green Book was going to be nominated.

Well.

Green Book has won the People's Choice Audience award at TIFF. If Beale Street Could Talk and Roma were the runners up.

So yeah, Green Book is in the Oscars race now.

Wtf Green Book is from the Farrelly Brothers?

J_Viper said:

Wtf Green Book is from the Farrelly Brothers?

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Yeah...

Up until I heard about this movie I was surprised that the majority of Oscars contenders this year seemed to be good movies that took some risks and didn't feel like Oscar bait...

then came Green Book.