Movie Awards Season 2018

Jiggy · Sep 3, 2018

Ah, the best time of the year is almost upon us. We get to watch studios spend millions of dollars to win a bunch of meaningless trophies. And then we get to complain endlessly because our favorite science fiction film didn't win anything.

Anyways, here's our current contenders:

BEST PICTURE:

Roma (currently rocking an insane 96 on Metacritic, Alfonso Cuaron's Roma is going to be one of the most acclaimed films of the year. Cuaron's Gravity got him a directing Oscar a few years back but it missed out on Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave, maybe this'll be Cuaron's year)

BlacKkKlansmen (Produced by Jordan Peele and directed by Spike Lee, the Academy has a good opportunity to Do the Right Thing and rectify some past snubs. Klansmen's a critical darling with a hot cast and a perfect middle finger to the era of Donald Trump)

First Man (Damien Chazelle's last two films were both big awards darlings, it doesn't look like First Man is quite as well reviewed as La La Land and Whiplash but Chazelle is the youngest person in history to win an Oscar for Best Director so anything new he puts out is going to be in serious consideration)

The Favorite (Critics love it and the cast is getting rave reviews. Plus y'know, period piece. Right up voters' alleys)

A Star is Born (The Academy loooooves when actors transition into directors, and it looks like Bradley Cooper has actually put out a pretty damn good movie. Keep an eye on this one)

If Beale Street Could Talk (When you make a movie as good as Moonlight, there's going to be a lot of eyes on your next project. If Barry Jenkins delivers, Beale Street has to be a staple on any voter's list)

Widows (Gillian Flynn wrote the screenplay for Widows, maybe this one will do better at the Oscars than David Fincher's Gone Girl, it does have the magnificent Steve McQueen behind the camera)

The Old Man & The Gun (A pretty impressive 88 on MC, and it's Robert Redford's final movie)

Black Panther (The Academy ditched the popular movie category so BP should be back in the running)

Green Book (The Farrelly Bros have been getting snubbed by the Oscars for years, is their shot?)

BEST DIRECTOR:

Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansmen)

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)

Damien Chazelle (First Man)

Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

BEST ACTOR:

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Ryan Gosling (First Man)

Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)

Christian Bale (Vice)

Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun)

BEST ACTRESS:

Glenn Close (The Wife)

Viola Davis (Widows)

Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)

Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)

Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Nicole Kidman (The Destroyer)

Olivia Colman (The Favorite)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)

Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansmen)

Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Daniel Kaluuya (Widows)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

Claire Foy (First Man)

Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Amy Adams (Vice)

Emma Stone (The Favorite)

BEST ANIMATED (DISNEY) MOVIE:

The Incredibles 2

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Isle of Dogs

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Remember, it's still early days because this stuff can change quick

Prompto · Sep 3, 2018

That sounds about right so far. Though I think Nicole Kidman gets nominated for Destroyer rather than Boy Erased. Looks like Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me? might be in the Best Actress race as well based on some of the reviews.

sherpajosh · Sep 3, 2018

Odd...I looked but didn't see the best movie I've seen this year mentioned. Eighth Grade is damn near perfection. 90 Metacritic 98 Rotten Tomatoes.

Criminally under watched.

Also. In terms of Pop Film, Avengers should be a lock.

But no supporting for Michael B. Jordan?!?

Prompto · Sep 3, 2018

sherpajosh said:
Odd...I looked but didn't see the best movie I've seen this year mentioned. Eighth Grade is damn near perfection. 90 Metacritic 98 Rotten Tomatoes.

Criminally under watched.

Also. In terms of Pop Film, Avengers should be a lock.

I could see them completely ignoring Eighth Grade sadly besides a screenplay nom.

And Black Panther is more of a lock than Avengers. I think even Mission Impossible has a better chance of being nominated than Avengers

Precious Tritium · Sep 3, 2018

Mission Impossible has got to be a lock for best Popular Movie.

Also Eighth Grade have any chance?

jkk411 · Sep 3, 2018

The lead in Eighth Grade is an interesting dark horse for Best Actress, but I'm not sure the movie will have the legs for it. I think Bo Burnham could sneak in with a Best Original Screenplay nomination, though. Also, shout out to Tully and The Rider which both flew way under the radar.

Jiggy · Sep 3, 2018

sherpajosh said:
But no supporting for Michael B. Jordan?!?

I think a nom for MBJ is a long shot

If BP gets a ton of support then he probably gets in but I have a feeling they'll just shove it into the popular film category and forget about it

MrPink · Sep 3, 2018

I would love if Driver got nominated for his work in Blackkklansman.

Right now, I'd imagine Best actor nominee #5 is Rami Malek's to take for Bohemian Rhapsody if the whispers are true. I don't think Jackman makes it since the Front Runner is getting tepid reception. Robert Redford has a good shot if the campaign really sells the final performance aspect.

Released · Sep 3, 2018

Ethan Hawke better get an acting nom for First Reformed.

Deleted member 4034 · Sep 3, 2018

It's weird that we start this conversation before having seen most of the movies.

ThatWasAJoke · Sep 3, 2018

Damn I got really invested in awards last season, Then Phantom Thread and BR2049 did nothing. So probably won't be as interested this year. Just feel that the Oscars are a farce that reward short-term old person movies like bio's which are so derivative and lacking in imagination

Deleted member 4034 · Sep 3, 2018

ThatWasAJoke said:
Damn I got really invested in awards last season, Then Phantom Thread and BR2049 did nothing. So probably won't be as interested this year. Just feel that the Oscars are a farce that reward short-term old person movies like bio's which are so derivative and lacking in imagination

Uh ... remind me who the target audience for Phantom Thread was?
And remember who did win last year (and I wasn't even crazy about that movie).

sherpajosh · Sep 3, 2018

Last year was numbing to me. Shape of Water was good. Strong even But picture of the year? I'll ruffle some feathers, but that's a bigger farce than Crash to me.

Deleted member 46641 · Sep 3, 2018

Shape of Water was a deserving winner. It blocked Three Billboards, which would've actually been a bigger farce than Crash.

Deleted member 46641 · Sep 3, 2018

Jiggy said:
Ah, the best time of the year is almost upon us. We get to watch studios spend millions of dollars to win a bunch of meaningless trophies. And then we get to complain endlessly because our favorite science fiction film didn't win anything.

Anyways, here's our current contenders:

BEST PICTURE:

Roma (currently rocking an insane 96 on Metacritic, Alfonso Cuaron's Roma is going to be one of the most acclaimed films of the year. Cuaron's Gravity got him a directing Oscar a few years back but it missed out on Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave, maybe this'll be Cuaron's year)

BlacKkKlansmen (Produced by Jordan Peele and directed by Spike Lee, the Academy has a good opportunity to Do the Right Thing and rectify some past snubs. Klansmen's a critical darling with a hot cast and a perfect middle finger to the era of Donald Trump)

First Man (Damien Chazelle's last two films were both big awards darlings, it doesn't look like First Man is quite as well reviewed as La La Land and Whiplash but Chazelle is the youngest person in history to win an Oscar for Best Director so anything new he puts out is going to be in serious consideration)

The Favorite (Critics love it and the cast is getting rave reviews. Plus y'know, period piece. Right up voters' alleys)

A Star is Born (The Academy loooooves when actors transition into directors, and it looks like Bradley Cooper has actually put out a pretty damn good movie. Keep an eye on this one)

If Beale Street Could Talk (When you make a movie as good as Moonlight, there's going to be a lot of eyes on your next project. If Barry Jenkins delivers, Beale Street has to be a staple on any voter's list)

BEST DIRECTOR:

Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansmen)

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)

Damien Chazelle (First Man)

Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

BEST ACTOR:

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Ryan Gosling (First Man)

Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)

Christian Bale (Backseat)

BEST ACTRESS:

Glenn Close (The Wife)

Viola Davis (Widows)

Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)

Toni Collette (Hereditary)

Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)

Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)

Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansmen)

Sam Rockwell (Backseat)

Daniel Kaluuya (Widows)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

Claire Foy (First Man)

Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Amy Adams (Backseat)

Emma Stone (The Favorite)

POPULAR FILM (lol):

Black Panther

Avengers: Infinity War

Creed II

A Quiet Place

Crazy Rich Asians

Remember, it's still early days because this stuff can change quick

Quick feedback

Maybe add Widows and Old Man and the Gun to the Best Picture. Absolutely add Robert Redford for actor for the Old Man and the Gun - I'd argue he might even be able to win.

Deleted member 46641 · Sep 3, 2018

Bobo Dakes said:
It's weird that we start this conversation before having seen most of the movies.

It kinda is, but in all honesty awards discussion rarely ends up being about the actual movies, but more a mix of drama, studio politics, political politics, and sheer manipulative fuckery.

Place your bets - what is this year's Darkest Hour? As in, a film few wanted to be nominated for Best Picture, but somehow did because of the conservative branch.

Ridley327 · Sep 3, 2018

Masozi said:
Quick feedback

Maybe add Widows and Old Man and the Gun to the Best Picture. Absolutely add Robert Redford for actor for the Old Man and the Gun - I'd argue he might even be able to win.

I think Redford has one of the easiest Oscar campaigns to manage out there, especially as he has been nominated as an actor only once before. That writes itself right there.

Deleted member 46641 · Sep 3, 2018

Ridley327 said:
I think Redford has one of the easiest Oscar campaigns to manage out there, especially as he has been nominated as an actor only once before. That writes itself right there.

Bloody hell. If that campaign is well-managed, it'll make Leonardo Dicaprio in the Revenant look like a dark horse from a newcomer actor.

grang · Sep 3, 2018

Has there really been a lot of Oscar hype for the Dick Cheney biopic? Haven't heard much about it myself but love all three actors OP mentioned.

RatskyWatsky · Sep 3, 2018

Hoping for an Other Side of the Wind sweep

Ithil · Sep 3, 2018

Feeling a career win for Glenn Close. She's the last remaining "long time bridesmaid" (though we have Amy Adams and Saoirse Ronan quickly working up that reputation currently) I can think of in that category.

Jiggy · Sep 3, 2018

I actually totally forgot about Redford retiring

I'm not really all that sold on Widows being an awards darling but I'll add it

Big Al · Sep 3, 2018

Eighth Grade better be getting the recognition it deserves

Ithil · Sep 3, 2018

ThatWasAJoke said:
Damn I got really invested in awards last season, Then Phantom Thread and BR2049 did nothing. So probably won't be as interested this year. Just feel that the Oscars are a farce that reward short-term old person movies like bio's which are so derivative and lacking in imagination

BR 2049 took home the long awaited Deakins win. Sure it would have been nice if it were among the BP films but it got a victory.

Deleted member 46641 · Sep 3, 2018

grang said:
Has there really been a lot of Oscar hype for the Dick Cheney biopic? Haven't heard much about it myself but love all three actors OP mentioned.

It seems to be OK. The Frontrunner had terrible buzz so that movie now has a comfortable niche of American political drama.

Freddy=Legend · Sep 3, 2018

ThatWasAJoke said:
Damn I got really invested in awards last season, Then Phantom Thread and BR2049 did nothing. So probably won't be as interested this year. Just feel that the Oscars are a farce that reward short-term old person movies like bio's which are so derivative and lacking in imagination

Phantom Thread came about 6 or 7 years too late. That movie would've swept the Oscars in a different time. But not anymore. I loved the hell out of that movie, though it had some the best acting & editing of anything in recent memory. But I knew walking out of the theatre; it would get some attention but likely not win anything.

hodayathink · Sep 3, 2018

Choomp said:
Eighth Grade better be getting the recognition it deserves

Eighth Grade came out way too early and is gonna get overshadowed by all the festival movies premiering now. It'll be lucky to get one nom unless they do some great campaigning along with sending screeners.

PhoncipleBone · Sep 3, 2018

hodayathink said:
Eight Grade came out way too early and is gonna get overshadowed by all the festival movies premiering now. It'll be lucky to get one nom unless they do some great campaigning along with sending screeners.

Agreed. It will be forgotten rather quickly now that award season is heating up. Shame too, because the movie was damn good.

Deleted member 4034 · Sep 3, 2018

Choomp said:
Eighth Grade better be getting the recognition it deserves

But then this is the thing that bothers me about awards season. This is a movie that came out to universal critic acclaim, made a decent amount of money, but none of that matters if it's not nomed by Oscar specifically because you choose to root for something not seeing most of the expected competition yet?

GrrImAFridge · Sep 4, 2018

The fact that Mary isn't playing at any notable festivals has me worried. I wonder if the feedback from the test screenings back in June/July was rather negative and it was recut.

HypedBulborb · Sep 4, 2018

Give Adam Driver that Oscar already, absolutely loved him in BlacKkKlansman.

Budi · Sep 4, 2018

So is You Were Never Really Here a 2017 movie? I'm bit confused on this. The unfinished version got awarded best screenplay for Lynne Ramsay and best actor for Joaquin Phoenix at Cannes where it premiered. But the wider release was 2018 april.

ArmsofSleep · Sep 4, 2018

Masozi said:
Place your bets - what is this year's Darkest Hour? As in, a film few wanted to be nominated for Best Picture, but somehow did because of the conservative branch.

Come on, it has to be Mary Queen of Scots right?

Beyond that I mean, A Star is Born probably counts for this right? I expect it to do very, very, very well

ElectronicOldMen · Sep 4, 2018

Masozi said:
Place your bets - what is this year's Darkest Hour? As in, a film few wanted to be nominated for Best Picture, but somehow did because of the conservative branch.

I think it'll be pretty popular, I don't know how many people will be mad about it like they were with Darkest Hour, or Lion, or whatever going back, but A Star is Born is probably the film for them this year. Like, 75% old white people who like the movies from back in the olden days, and 25% psychopathic lady gaga twitter people. Mary Queen of Scots probably isn't happening for anything, really feels like it's being completely buried by Focus. The festival-skipping late entrant to the whole thing to watch is probably Adam McKay's Dick Cheney movie I think.

Might wanna add Can You Ever Forgive Me? to the best picture list in the OP, Yalitza Aparicio in Roma and Rachel Weisz & Olivia Colman (who's more than likely gonna win whatever category she's put in) in The Favourite as well.

2 semi-bold 'oustanding achievement in big boy films or whatever' predictions - 3 of the 5 nominees for it will also be nominated for Best Picture, and only 1 of the 5 will be a superhero movie.

Meows · Sep 4, 2018

http://www.metacritic.com/movie/vox-lux

Natalie Portman's upcoming movie is getting raves as well. I thought this movie was going to bomb hard but I am very happy to see that it is good.

Deleted member 5853 · Sep 4, 2018

Meowster said:
http://www.metacritic.com/movie/vox-lux

Natalie Portman's upcoming movie is getting raves as well. I thought this movie was going to bomb hard but I am very happy to see that it is good.

The THR review has me really excited. It'll be really intriguing to see "A Star is Born" and "Vox Lux" back-to-back since both have distinct viewpoints on the nature of fame and what it means to be a pop-star.

ArmsofSleep · Sep 4, 2018

A Star is Born is going to be carried by Cooper as director. If Argo proved anything it's that actor-directors always get rewarded

Deleted member 46641 · Sep 4, 2018

I kinda think A Star is Born is a weird comparison to make to Darkest Hour considering A Star is Born got way better reviews, and isn't just going to be buoyed up by the British conservative branch that got The king's speech a win

Flow · Sep 4, 2018

Way too early we still have quite a few of the biggest festivals happening within the next two months.

Illithid Dude · Sep 4, 2018

I think A Star is Born is gonna win Pop Film. Pic has $200 mil domestic written all over it. Think of the demographic crossover - country music, Lady Gaga, and that prestige picture sheen. Plus that tremendous meta score doesn't hurt.

Meows · Sep 4, 2018

So. Yes. "A Star Is Born" (2018) is an across-the-board Oscar contender. More than that, and assuming this is even still possible in the modern era, it has the muscle to achieve what only three films in movie history ever have: Win all five major Academy Awards (picture, director, actor, actress, and screenplay). It's that kind of accomplishment, and even more, it makes you realize what this well-worn, Oscar-winning material was capable of all along.

Click to expand...

Click to shrink...

Damn. That is some high praise from Tapley. If they really do follow through with that Best Popular Film shit, I would not be surprised if it won like Illithid Dude said. Better be prepared for the huge backlash if that happens when up against Black Panther (which I am still hoping will sneak into Best Picture somehow).

WaffleTaco · Sep 4, 2018

I always felt not having the movies up for awards not be not be on home video to be kinda bs

Illithid Dude · Sep 4, 2018

WaffleTaco said:
I always felt not having the movies up for awards not be not be on home video to be kinda bs

The Oscars are just as much about pushing those films nominated to higher box office revenues as it is rewarding artistic achievement. That's not even a bad thing - if it wasn't profitable to make these films, they wouldn't be made in the first place, and we need to live in a world in which higher quality filmmaking is rewarded.

ncsoft · Sep 4, 2018

Masozi said:
Shape of Water was a deserving winner. It blocked Three Billboards, which would've actually been a bigger farce than Crash.

Agreed, I tolerated TSOW winning specifically because of this. I would have cheered for another movie taking best picture, then it became clear TSOW was (along with Get out being the dark horse) the only movie with a fighting chance against 3BB.

WaffleTaco · Sep 4, 2018

Illithid Dude said:
The Oscars are just as much about pushing those films nominated to higher box office revenues as it is rewarding artistic achievement. That's not even a bad thing - if it wasn't profitable to make these films, they wouldn't be made in the first place, and we need to live in a world in which higher quality filmmaking is rewarded.

Mhmm, understandable yes of course. Still annoying.

Deleted member 46641 · Sep 4, 2018

Flow said:
Way too early we still have quite a few of the biggest festivals happening within the next two months.

I mean we're in the thick of Venice and Telluride, so this is a good thread to have now to discuss first reactions to a lot of films. The majority of Oscars contenders have began their campaigns at these two in particular, so now is the time.

Deleted member 46641 · Sep 4, 2018

Illithid Dude said:
I think A Star is Born is gonna win Pop Film. Pic has $200 mil domestic written all over it. Think of the demographic crossover - country music, Lady Gaga, and that prestige picture sheen. Plus that tremendous meta score doesn't hurt.

A really embarrassing situation that I could see happening is A Star is Born winning both, resulting in even more people questioning why the category exists.

Flow · Sep 4, 2018

Masozi said:
I mean we're in the thick of Venice and Telluride, so this is a good thread to have now to discuss first reactions to a lot of films. The majority of Oscars contenders have began their campaigns at these two in particular, so now is the time.

there is no mention of those film festivals in the op though, and quite a few films on the Op list are either from earlier this year, or haven't even premiered at the Venice or Telluride.

like I said at least wait for TIFF which is one of the top ones in the world.

Deleted member 46641 · Sep 4, 2018

Flow said:
there is no mention of those film festivals in the op though, and quite a few films on the Op list are either from earlier this year, or haven't even premiered at the Venice or Telluride.

like I said at least wait for TIFF which is one of the top ones in the world.

Quite frankly I can count the number of potential Oscars contenders [not even for Best Picture, just in general] that are unseen on one hand (Widows, Beale Street, Backseat, Mary Queen of Scots, Beautiful Boy). And the general awards meta seems to be forming around five already-screened films (BlackKklansman, First Man, Roma, A Star is Born, The Favourite), so the oscars race has begun whether you want to admit it or not.

Deleted member 32822 · Sep 4, 2018

I'm so anxious to see A Star Is Born, First Man and Beautiful Boy.

There was a poster on here in the ASIB trailer thread who claimed to have seen the movie and said it was going to be hot garbage and a total mess. Jokes on him :P

Movie Awards Season 2018

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