PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

foolishoptimist · Aug 24, 2018

backtovioletroad said:
Where are you getting "exclusivity" from? The Forbes article does not mention exclusivity.

I'd assume like last gen, each vendor would have their own exclusive customizations. And from this article, I'd guess Sony require more customizations than MS. Pretty sure it's been stated that the Pro has more customizations than the X, MS went more brute force.

bonesawisready5 said:
But don't Sony's financials indicate losses coming in late 2020/early 2021? Would indicate to me that they will launch ps5 at a loss per unit in 2020 and not 2019.

2019 was completely omitted from the same financial report, so 2020 is not guaranteed.

DarkFlame92 said:
I think 2020 is the way to go,since Sony's last batch of exclusive heavy hitters are of 2019 schedule.They wouldn't release Death Stranding,Ghost of Tsushima and Last of Us 2 in between gens.

Yet Sony did release TLOU in 2013 after PS4 was announced for later that year.

And we're expecting BC and PS5 enhancements, changing the situation somewhat.

Diarrhea Day-Lewis · Aug 24, 2018

msia2k75 said:
Horizon 2, for sure, won't appear on a launch period... Not really sure why you're expecting that.

I guess i should say i hope.

If they had a team start on a sequel spring 2017 then that would give them 2.5 years if it comes out holiday 2019

But 2020 is more likely yes

Diarrhea Day-Lewis · Aug 24, 2018

foolishoptimist said:
I'd assume like last gen, each vendor would have their own exclusive customizations. And from this article, I'd guess Sony require more customizations than MS. Pretty sure it's been stated that the Pro has more customizations than the X, MS went more brute force.

2019 was completely omitted from the same financial report, so 2020 is not guaranteed.

Yet Sony did release TLOU in 2013 after PS4 was announced for later that year.

And we're expecting BC and PS5 enhancements, changing the situation somewhat.

Okay thanks for the clarification!

Socky · Aug 24, 2018

bonesawisready5 said:
I think 2019 holidays is do able for sony. I am fine waiting until 2020 holidays if possible.

If its 2019, my guess is a April or May reveal focusing on how it plays all your ps4 stuff and maybe ps3 content.

With GDC likely to be a huge opportunity for leaks, I'd expect a reveal prior, not post, probably in a similar time-frame to the PS4 Meeting. If it's an early 2020 launch, E3 2019 reveal.

If its late 2019, i'm Hoping for at least horizon 2 as a ps5 launch game and full exclusive (no ps4 version)

I'd expect Horizon 2 to be shown, but not released until [edit] ~6-12 months after the PS5. Launch window-ish, PS5 only.

8 cores @3Ghz, 24GB GDDR6, 10-12TF GPU and 100GB UHD BR and i would be satisfied with $400 invested.

Sounds about right to me.

Kyoufu · Aug 24, 2018

bonesawisready5 said:
8 cores @3Ghz, 24GB GDDR6, 10-12TF GPU and 100GB UHD BR and i would be satisfied with $400 invested.

That smells like a $500 investment tbh.

DarkFlame92 · Aug 24, 2018

foolishoptimist said:
Yet Sony did release TLOU in 2013 after PS4 was announced for later that year.

And we're expecting BC and PS5 enhancements, changing the situation somewhat.

Well it was released half a year before PS4 launch,it's perfectly normal that their big exclusives cycle can stretch up to the first half of 2020

Diarrhea Day-Lewis · Aug 24, 2018

Kyoufu said:
That smells like a $500 investment tbh.

Eh idk. Either way they projected heavy losses in 2021 so that would indicate to me they are prepared to sell at a bigger loss than ps4 was (which was profitable roughly half a year after launch per unit)

Diarrhea Day-Lewis · Aug 24, 2018

Socky said:
With GDC likely to be a huge opportunity for leaks, I'd expect a reveal prior, not post, probably in a similar time-frame to the PS4 Meeting. If it's an early 2020 launch, E3 2019 reveal.

I'd expect Horizon 2 to be shown, but not released until [edit] ~6-12 months after the PS5. Launch window-ish, PS5 only.

Sounds about right to me.

I agree with everything except i think they will release it the year it is announced. No 2019 announcement and 2020 release.

They didn't do that with ps4 and will not want to affect ps4 sales, especially if ps4 is still their main console in holiday 2019. Why give consumers any pause?

Socky · Aug 24, 2018

bonesawisready5 said:
I agree with everything except i think they will release it the year it is announced. No 2019 announcement and 2020 release.

They didn't do that with ps4 and will not want to affect ps4 sales, especially if ps4 is still their main console in holiday 2019. Why give consumers any pause?

I think likely a ~9 month period betwern reveal and launch, so similar to PS4, Feb/Mar reveal, Oct/Nov launch 2019, (or maybe 2020, which I don't rule out). But, if they push it to early 2020 (likely because of production issues, if it comes to that), they surely have to reveal 2019; E3 seems more likely to me in that time frame than a Meeting in late 2019.

Diarrhea Day-Lewis · Aug 24, 2018

Socky said:
I think likely a ~9 month period betwern reveal and launch, so similar to PS4, Feb/Mar reveal, Oct/Nov launch 2019, or maybe 2020, which I don't rule out). But, if they push it to early 2020 (likely because of production issues, if it comes to that), they surely have to reveal 2019; E3 seems more likely to me in that time frame than a Meeting in late 2019.

I could see a switch style reveal to release but I think it would be dumb to hurt ps4 sales during holiday 2019 which a ps5 announcement would do.

If it's day a May 2020 release I'd be cool with a January or Feb announcement

Socky · Aug 24, 2018

bonesawisready5 said:
I could see a switch style reveal to release but I think it would be dumb to hurt ps4 sales during holiday 2019 which a ps5 announcement would do.

Considering the likely disparity between customers for cheaper, older tech and those for high-price, new tech, I'm not convinced by the new console impacting old console holiday sales argument, especially if BC is a PS5 feature.

If it's day a May 2020 release I'd be cool with a January or Feb announcement

Sure, that would be okay, if leaky, but I don't think it would launch any later than March, which necessitates a 2019 reveal in my view.

Diarrhea Day-Lewis · Aug 24, 2018

Socky said:
Considering the likely disparity between customers for cheaper, older tech and those for high-price, new tech, I'm not convinced by the new console impacting old console holiday sales argument, especially if BC is a PS5 feature.

Sure, that would be okay, if leaky, but I don't think it would launch any later than March, which necessitates a 2019 reveal in my view.

They could always go for an Apple style rollout and give it two months. Sorta like the January switch event that led to March release (tho switch trailer debuted in October)

backtovioletroad · Aug 24, 2018

foolishoptimist said:
I'd assume like last gen, each vendor would have their own exclusive customizations. And from this article, I'd guess Sony require more customizations than MS. Pretty sure it's been stated that the Pro has more customizations than the X, MS went more brute force.

The Xbox One X's Scorpio SoC has numerous customizations. Microsoft was so proud of how "custom" the Scorpio Engine was that in these two preview articles the word custom appears only 32 times:

https://www.eurogamer.net/amp/digitalfoundry-2017-project-scorpio-tech-revealed

https://www.eurogamer.net/amp/digitalfoundry-2017-the-scorpio-engine-in-depth

AMD is NDA'd up the wahzoo about what Sony or Microsoft are ordering, but nothing is exclusive unless it utilizes IP owned by Microsoft, Sony, or maybe a 3rd party (not AMD).

For example, if Sony asks for a particular customization like PS4 Pro's ID Buffer, AMD can't tell Microsoft that the PS4 Pro is getting an ID Buffer. So, unless Microsoft happens to also ask for an ID Buffer, only Sony will get one. But if Microsoft did ask for an ID Buffer, there'd be nothing stopping AMD from using the exact same ID Buffer in Microsoft's SoC.

Just look at what happened with Sony, Microsoft, IBM and the Cell Broadband Engine.

IBM was designing the Cell BE for Sony, but that didn't stop IBM from providing Microsoft with a design that utilized the Cell BE's PPEs.

Some folks on here have speculated: If the Navi architecture is being designed for Sony, then Sony's experience with the Cell BE might lead Sony to seek an exclusivity agreement with AMD to prevent AMD from providing Navi to Microsoft.

There have been no actual rumors to my knowledge that any such agreement exists. And the existence of such an agreement would be highly, highly unlikely.

Spish! · Aug 25, 2018

backtovioletroad said:
The Xbox One X's Scorpio SoC has numerous customizations. Microsoft was so proud of how "custom" the Scorpio Engine was that in these two preview articles the word custom appears only 32 times:

https://www.eurogamer.net/amp/digitalfoundry-2017-project-scorpio-tech-revealed

https://www.eurogamer.net/amp/digitalfoundry-2017-the-scorpio-engine-in-depth

AMD is NDA'd up the wahzoo about what Sony or Microsoft are ordering, but nothing is exclusive unless it utilizes IP owned by Microsoft, Sony, or maybe a 3rd party (not AMD).

For example, if Sony asks for a particular customization like PS4 Pro's ID Buffer, AMD can't tell Microsoft that the PS4 Pro is getting an ID Buffer. So, unless Microsoft happens to also ask for an ID Buffer, only Sony will get one. But if Microsoft did ask for an ID Buffer, there'd be nothing stopping AMD from using the exact same ID Buffer in Microsoft's SoC.

Just look at what happened with Sony, Microsoft, IBM and the Cell Broadband Engine.

IBM was designing the Cell BE for Sony, but that didn't stop IBM from providing Microsoft with a design that utilized the Cell BE's PPEs.

Some folks on here have speculated: If the Navi architecture is being designed for Sony, then Sony's experience with the Cell BE might lead Sony to seek an exclusivity agreement with AMD to prevent AMD from providing Navi to Microsoft.

There have been no actual rumors to my knowledge that any such agreement exists. And the existence of such an agreement would be highly, highly unlikely.

Just so happens that the ID buffer is Sony IP, you can read the patent here.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if Sony exclusive IP made it into Navi to such a degree that MS would have to go with a different architecture. If the rumors are true, having 2/3rds of RTG's engineering workforce dedicated to designing the PS5 GPU in collaboration with Sony does seem reminiscent of STI, or Sony's history of working with Toshiba.

VirtuaRacer · Aug 25, 2018

backtovioletroad said:
The Xbox One X's Scorpio SoC has numerous customizations. Microsoft was so proud of how "custom" the Scorpio Engine was that in these two preview articles the word custom appears only 32 times

Yes, Richard Leadbetter really drank the Kool-Aid when talking about Scorpio's "unprecedented" SoC customizations. I remember him being challenged to list them all independently given the frequency he uncritically parroted the same PR spiel over and over. IIRC Leadbetter only verified a small number (one of them concerned power regulation and DX12 support at the hardware level was later discovered to be a feature of the OG Xbox). He got way too excited following his VIP trip to Microsoft HQ.

backtovioletroad · Aug 25, 2018

Spish! said:
Just so happens that the ID buffer is Sony IP, you can read the patent here.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if Sony exclusive IP made it into Navi to such a degree that MS would have to go with a different architecture. If the rumors are true, having 2/3rds of RTG's engineering workforce dedicated to designing the PS5 GPU in collaboration with Sony does seem reminiscent of STI, or Sony's history of working with Toshiba.

Woah, you are correct. That was a bad example on my part. You can swap in Rapid Packed Math for the ID Buffer then. I'm totally sure that RPM isn't Sony IP.

Navi was announced as the code name for AMD's next desktop GPU part. You're theorizing Sony might be licensing their IP to AMD to sell in a consumer desktop GPU?

If Sony is working with AMD a la STI Design Center I would bet that the part they are working on is not called Navi. In that hypothetical scenario Navi could be the name of a product that uses some (not all) of the tech from the Sony collab.

Jason Evangelho's anonymous source seems off to me. Evangelho is trustworthy, but it doesn't make sense that source would call the Sony chip Navi or that they wouldn't know if Zen+ (the source said Zen+ not Zen 2) and Navi are being integrated into a single SoC. The article seems to imply that the source implies that the Zen CPU and Navi GPU are not integrated into a single SoC.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Aug 25, 2018

backtovioletroad said:
Woah, you are correct. That was a bad example on my part. You can swap in Rapid Packed Math for the ID Buffer then. I'm totally sure that RPM isn't Sony IP.

Navi was announced as the code name for AMD's next desktop GPU part. You're theorizing Sony might be licensing their IP to AMD to sell in a consumer desktop GPU?

If Sony is working with AMD a la STI Design Center I would bet that the part they are working on is not called Navi. In that hypothetical scenario Navi could be the name of a product that uses some (not all) of the tech from the Sony collab.

Jason Evangelho's anonymous source seems off to me. Evangelho is trustworthy, but it doesn't make sense that source would call the Sony chip Navi or that they wouldn't know if Zen+ (the source said Zen+ not Zen 2) and Navi are being integrated into a single SoC. The article seems to imply that the source implies that the Zen CPU and Navi GPU are not integrated into a single SoC.

Navi isn't a GPU or a single product. It's a GPU microarchitecture, Just like, Sea Islands / Southern Islands etc..

The PS5 APU will be based on Navi for the GPU portion. It will also include customizations that Sony will work on together with AMD and patent as their own IP, same as the ID Buffer in Liverpool.

Microsoft could similarly work on a Navi-based GPU with AMD, integrating their own customizations that their engineering group come up with and patent.

What Sony/MS owned IP AMD can take away and sell in Navi-based PC GPU parts will depend on the contractual agreements between each company and the IHV (i.e. AMD). What happened in the past with PS4/XB1 isn't necessarily an indication of how the contractual agreements between Sony/MS and AMD will be agreed this time, so it's not very useful trying to infer anything from what has happened in the past.

Intersect · Aug 25, 2018

bonesawisready5 said:
Eh idk. Either way they projected heavy losses in 2021 so that would indicate to me they are prepared to sell at a bigger loss than ps4 was (which was profitable roughly half a year after launch per unit)

Sony doesn't just sell Playstation consoles so the projected loss for 2020-2021 can be just about anything.

2020 Just about all the following support a PS5/PS4.3 shipping 2020 or more likely before.
ATSC 3.0 is scheduled to ramp in the US late 2020
Multiple 8K panel manufacturers are ramping 8K panel production starting 2020; some manufacturers are already stating that all their 8K panels will support glassless 3D.
Sony starts shipping their 8K TVs with HDMI 2.1 and ATSC 3.0 tuners which should support 4K 3D.
About this time Sony should start shipping UHD Blu-ray players that support 8K and 4K 3D/depthmap.
PSVR2 should ship around this time or slightly before 2020 if a PS5 or PS4.3 iteration is available with HDMI 2.1 and GDDR6.
A PS4.3 or PS5 should also be able to support 8K media and 4K 3D as well as PSVR2.

Sony is a Media company and also needs media to sell their 8K TVs which should be Glassless 3D. Since 4K is a barely noticeable improvement over 1080P in the average living room, UHD 3D should be the main visual feature not 8K. As far as media is concerned, PSVR2 goggles (4K/eye 3D) and 8K TVs (4K 3D) would be synergistic and the only ways to view that media. Sony 8K TVs may have a camera as a standard feature which allows head/eye tracking.

Sony Mid-Term Corporate Strategy for FY2018-2020 Delivering KANDO by Getting Closer to People, Aiming to Generate Sustainable Social Value and Maintain a High Level of Profit

The next PlayStation is at least three years away (Speculation = 2021)
Sony is looking at how services and hardware can work together (fact given the above)

Kyoufu · Aug 25, 2018

Intersect said:
Sony doesn't just sell Playstation consoles so the projected loss for 2020 can be just about anything.

The projected losses were from the Game division.

Bowl0l · Aug 25, 2018

Kyoufu said:
The projected losses were from the Game division.

I recalled that the projected loss was for FY19. Could you share your source?

Kyoufu · Aug 25, 2018

Bowl0l said:
I recalled that the projected loss was for FY19. Could you share your source?

I'm not sure if you misread but I was saying the projected losses for Sony were made by Kodera, head of their Game division, so TVs and other products have nothing to do with said forecast, only PlayStation products which we all assume he's referring to PS5.

VallenValiant · Aug 25, 2018

Bowl0l said:
I recalled that the projected loss was for FY19. Could you share your source?

I remember that the graph shown was intentionally meant to obscure the planned PS5 release year. Thus it is pointless trying to uncover it by watching the graph; Sony is aware 2019 and 2020 are the only two possibilities, but they were not going to let you know which before they start their official announcement.

Intersect · Aug 25, 2018

Kyoufu said:
The projected losses were from the Game division.

Same guy stating; "We will use the next three years to prepare the next step, to crouch down so that we can jump higher in the future," Kodera said, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Kodera's comments came in an interview with the press today, following a presentation to investors yesterday in which he said that the PlayStation 4 is heading into the end of its life cycle.

I believe the above was misunderstood as applying to only PS4/5 but it's at least the entire Playstation model which includes the streaming (PS Vue too), games and services. Concurrent with ATSC 3.0 (2020) will be many more streaming services WHICH WILL TAKE TIME TO PAY FOR THEMSELVES. All PS4s can support ATSC 3.0 OTA which for financial reasons will be limited to 1080P and lower resolutions.

Sony Mid-Term Corporate Strategy for FY2018-2020 Delivering KANDO by Getting Closer to People, Aiming to Generate Sustainable Social Value and Maintain a High Level of Profit

 The business of the Game & Network Services segment is about being connected with both users as well as creators with PlayStation®4 as its core, and the basic strategy is to further expand PlayStationTMNetwork (PSN), which has now become one of the world's leading network services with annual sales of more than one trillion yen and monthly active users of more than 80 million. Specifically, Sony aims to grow subscriber numbers for the PlayStation®Plus service, and increase user engagement with PSN as measured by login frequency and time spent on the platform, by having more people use its products and services such as PlayStation®VR, the cloud gaming service PlayStationTMNow, the video services PlayStationTMVue and PlayStationTMVideo, and the music service PlayStationTMMusic.

The next PlayStation is at least three years away (Speculation = 2021)
Sony is looking at how services and hardware can work together (fact given the above)

Given Sony releasing 8K TVs in 2020, the PS4.3 or PS5 should ship no later than 2020 and probably before. This means that it will not be a next generation GPU but a custom GCN with Navi features which could ship at the earliest Holiday 2018 or 2H 2019, or as many have speculated 2020 at the latest.

Bowl0l · Aug 25, 2018

Kyoufu said:
I'm not sure if you misread but I was saying the projected losses for Sony were made by Kodera, head of their Game division, so TVs and other products have nothing to do with said forecast, only PlayStation products which we all assume he's referring to PS5.

i cannot recall my source. Should be what VallenValiant posted.

VallenValiant said:
I remember that the graph shown was intentionally meant to obscure the planned PS5 release year. Thus it is pointless trying to uncover it by watching the graph; Sony is aware 2019 and 2020 are the only two possibilities, but they were not going to let you know which before they start their official announcement.

Did Sony did the same for FY12/FY13/FY14 to hide PS4 release date?

jroc74 · Aug 25, 2018

backtovioletroad said:
The Xbox One X's Scorpio SoC has numerous customizations. Microsoft was so proud of how "custom" the Scorpio Engine was that in these two preview articles the word custom appears only 32 times:

https://www.eurogamer.net/amp/digitalfoundry-2017-project-scorpio-tech-revealed

https://www.eurogamer.net/amp/digitalfoundry-2017-the-scorpio-engine-in-depth

AMD is NDA'd up the wahzoo about what Sony or Microsoft are ordering, but nothing is exclusive unless it utilizes IP owned by Microsoft, Sony, or maybe a 3rd party (not AMD).

For example, if Sony asks for a particular customization like PS4 Pro's ID Buffer, AMD can't tell Microsoft that the PS4 Pro is getting an ID Buffer. So, unless Microsoft happens to also ask for an ID Buffer, only Sony will get one. But if Microsoft did ask for an ID Buffer, there'd be nothing stopping AMD from using the exact same ID Buffer in Microsoft's SoC.

Just look at what happened with Sony, Microsoft, IBM and the Cell Broadband Engine.

IBM was designing the Cell BE for Sony, but that didn't stop IBM from providing Microsoft with a design that utilized the Cell BE's PPEs.

Some folks on here have speculated: If the Navi architecture is being designed for Sony, then Sony's experience with the Cell BE might lead Sony to seek an exclusivity agreement with AMD to prevent AMD from providing Navi to Microsoft.

There have been no actual rumors to my knowledge that any such agreement exists. And the existence of such an agreement would be highly, highly unlikely.

Spish! said:
Just so happens that the ID buffer is Sony IP, you can read the patent here.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if Sony exclusive IP made it into Navi to such a degree that MS would have to go with a different architecture. If the rumors are true, having 2/3rds of RTG's engineering workforce dedicated to designing the PS5 GPU in collaboration with Sony does seem reminiscent of STI, or Sony's history of working with Toshiba.

I knew some of this but not all this. Interesting.

Intersect · Aug 25, 2018

Spish! said:
Just so happens that the ID buffer is Sony IP, you can read the patent here.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if Sony exclusive IP made it into Navi to such a degree that MS would have to go with a different architecture. If the rumors are true, having 2/3rds of RTG's engineering workforce dedicated to designing the PS5 GPU in collaboration with Sony does seem reminiscent of STI, or Sony's history of working with Toshiba.

Very interesting, more efficient using depth buffer samples rather than color buffer samples. UHD 3D media uses a depth buffer which reduces what would be the second frame bandwidth by 50% and allows for a higher resolution after codec compression (less loss).

fewer color samples than depth samples are taken per pixel 104 in accordance with aspects of the present disclosure, resulting in a depth buffer at a higher resolution than the color buffer. According to certain aspects of the present disclosure, this may allow a display buffer to be reconstructed at the resolution of the depth buffer, without requiring a color buffer at the full display buffer resolution. This may provide a variety of benefits, including temporal and spatial anti-aliasing for more efficient rendering for any given display resolution. It is noted that color samples may generally be associated with greater computational requirements, e.g., memory bandwidth, shader overhead, and the like, than depth samples. Certain implementations of the present disclosure may utilize this fact and efficiently render graphics using information from depth samples having a higher spatial precision on the screen than the color samples.

I think Sony patents everything for protection not to prevent others from using it. In this case as with webkit and many of the Kronos standards, Sony just wants standards. For game developers, Sony wants easy ports to the PC and having a custom feature would prevent that.

Andromeda · Aug 25, 2018

Spish! said:
Just so happens that the ID buffer is Sony IP, you can read the patent here.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if Sony exclusive IP made it into Navi to such a degree that MS would have to go with a different architecture. If the rumors are true, having 2/3rds of RTG's engineering workforce dedicated to designing the PS5 GPU in collaboration with Sony does seem reminiscent of STI, or Sony's history of working with Toshiba.

This is another Sony patent about a custom hardware feature available in Pro GPU, the Gradient Adjust:

https://patents.justia.com/patent/20150287232

Kleegamefan · Aug 25, 2018

foolishoptimist said:
Yet Sony did release TLOU in 2013 after PS4 was announced for later that year.

And we're expecting BC and PS5 enhancements, changing the situation somewhat.

Yeah Sony did release TLOU in 2013.

But they are releasing TLOU II

And Ghosts of Tsushima

And Days Gone

And Death Stranding

All of which are AAA games thought to be released in 2019, so no, it's not quite the same situation as with the PS4 in 2013. Not even close.

Today,Sony is keen to "close the deal " on the groundwork established by PS4 during this generational transition. With a surging Nintendo on one side and a revitalized Microsoft on the other side."hey we only have PS4 remasters for your new $400-500 console. Please be excited!" Isn't going to cut it.

Especially if brand new exclusive games from proven developers like Playground games and fucking Ninja Theory will be out for Xbox Scarlett!

Let me tell you, in the face of that, I seriously doubt Sony will retain mindshare if all their initial offerings on PS5 are upscaled PS4 games.

That is crazy talk.

Nightengale · Aug 25, 2018

I think the assumption that Sony will not have PS5-exclusives in development that will be ready for launch/launch window of the console's release would be pretty flawed.

I don't expect Sony to be like Nintendo and have an array of games non-stop in year-one of the console, but I do expect that even as their core devs are working to get GoT, TLOU2, DS, etc out on PS4 - I'm expecting that they've also funded some mid-tier exclusives, either from Japan Studio, external partner devs, etc to release the equivalent of Killzone Shadowfall, Knack, Order 1886, etc within the first 12 months of PS5 to at least have 3 AAA-calibre exclusives within the first 12 months of PS5.

And by fall 2020, assuming PS5 is fall 2019 release, I think expecting Horizon 2 by then wouldn't be a stretch, and that would be a strong 'end-of-year-1' exclusive.

TheDeep1974 · Aug 25, 2018

Is it realistic to expect an Xbox Two announcement at E3 2018?

BitsandBytes · Aug 25, 2018

Kleegamefan, you are forgetting GoW:A, Beyond: TS, GT6 as well as TLOU and for TP the small matter of GTAV....all released after PS4 reveal in 2013 i.e 4 AAA first-party games. I assume Dreams will make it 5 FP games for PS4 next year with Days Gone joining in next year now.

We can argue all day long that it is 'different' this time but we won't know for sure until it all pans out. What I can't envisage is Sony releasing all those 5 games by the end of 2019 leaving 2020 completely dry. Given how long all these games have already been in dev, I can't see how they would need another 18 months+ dev time. This is another reason why I think PS5 could come in late 2019 as they would surely have spread those 5 games out to cover 2020.

Everblue said:
Is it realistic to expect an Xbox Two announcement at E3 2018?

Probably not!....But joking aside I could see them doing if Sony do reveal PS5 in February 2019 for a late 2019 release. Even if not, they will still likely give even stronger hints at least seeing as they did so this year.

Kleegamefan · Aug 25, 2018

Everblue said:
Is it realistic to expect an Xbox Two announcement at E3 2018?

E3 2019 you mean?

Yeah , Microsoft have more to gain. Xbox 1 isn't selling as well so there aren't as much sales to cannibalize as do Sony who is still selling many more PS4s in many more markets around the world.

Also, as is very well documented, Xbox is much more USA-centric than PlayStation so it would be much more easier to speak to their fans who are more focused on E3.

PlayStation is more international and because of this, a focused, specific PS Meeting works better for them.

Sir Tsunami · Aug 25, 2018

Everblue said:
Is it realistic to expect an Xbox Two announcement at E3 2018?

Considering Scarlet was mentioned at e3 2018, it kinda was

Andromeda · Aug 25, 2018

Obviously they'll need a few AAA games for launch. Horizon ZD released on march 2017, Guerrilla could do a proper AAA game in >3.5 years for fall 2020 release and ND will probably remaster TLOU2 at 60ps for PS5.

Retrospectively they only needed one game (Killzone Shadow Fall) to showcase their PS4 at launch. TLOUR was only released the next year. I expect they'll do the same with another Guerrilla game and TLOU2 remastered this time conveniently ready for PS5 launch. But 2019 would be too soon for both Guerrilla and Naughty dog (I expect TLOU2 to be released in Fall 2019 on PS4).

2020 would allow Sony to have a better launch lineup than in 2013. I expect that there are going to be others surprises than those 2.

Deleted member 36493 · Aug 25, 2018

Everblue said:
Is it realistic to expect an Xbox Two announcement at E3 2018?

Like an E3 2016 Scorpio announcement or an E3 2017 Xbox One X announcement?

DieH@rd · Aug 25, 2018

Andromeda said:
Retrospectively they only needed one game (Killzone Shadow Fall) to showcase their PS4 at launch.

And Second Son was in Q1 [it won the month when Titanfall launched].

8byte · Aug 25, 2018

2019 is pretty unrealistic. Sony has a huge 2019 planned for PS4, and unlike PS3, the PS4 turns profit at a pace they haven't seen in a very long time. They are going to price drop the PS4 in 2019 with their already massive library of exclusives, and rely on their 3rd party deals to continue to sell hardware at impulse purchase prices ($200-$250 base model).

They'll officially announce the PS5 sometime between PSX or GDC (late 2019, early 2020) and release the PS5 in early November 2020. This gives them GDC to show off the hardware with some teaser trailers, E3 for show floor demos and tons of hands on, and then 4 months of solid media blitz to build the hype.

Logically there is no big reason for Sony to release next year. Even if MS rushes to the market, Sony can throw a few extra dollars at boosting their hardware during that last year.

2019 isn't happening.

goonergaz · Aug 25, 2018

8byte said:
2019 is pretty unrealistic. Sony has a huge 2019 planned for PS4, and unlike PS3, the PS4 turns profit at a pace they haven't seen in a very long time. They are going to price drop the PS4 in 2019 with their already massive library of exclusives, and rely on their 3rd party deals to continue to sell hardware at impulse purchase prices ($200-$250 base model).

They'll officially announce the PS5 sometime between PSX or GDC (late 2019, early 2020) and release the PS5 in early November 2020. This gives them GDC to show off the hardware with some teaser trailers, E3 for show floor demos and tons of hands on, and then 4 months of solid media blitz to build the hype.

Logically there is no big reason for Sony to release next year. Even if MS rushes to the market, Sony can throw a few extra dollars at boosting their hardware during that last year.

2019 isn't happening.

Sony will be working to a timetable which has been fairly set for some time (unless that have 2 options on the go).

They won't just delay until it suits them, it's not as simple as that.

Deleted member 5764 · Aug 25, 2018

Guys, I'm looking at getting a 4k TV next Spring and don't want to buy a PS4 Pro. Therefore, PS5 is coming out in Fall 2019. You're welcome.

Anthony Hopkins · Aug 25, 2018

Burdmayn said:
Guys, I'm looking at getting a 4k TV next Spring and don't want to buy a PS4 Pro. Therefore, PS5 is coming out in Fall 2019. You're welcome.

So you think the PS5 release is revolving around you, and your purchase of a 4k tv?

BitsandBytes · Aug 25, 2018

Does anyone here genuinely think Sony/Mark Cerny will deviate much from this with PS5?:

What about the hardware side?

Well the innards were something where we really need to know what we're doing four years out. So I had gone around in 2008, 2009 and toured 30 something development teams, talking to them about what sort of features they'd like to see. But I couldn't admit to being actively working on PlayStation 4, so we disguised it as a "questionnaire" as to what they though the future of video game consoles would be like. We didn't fool anybody. They knew that we were asking about PlayStation 4, and they told us what they wanted, and much of what you see in the console is that feature set.

As in whatever PS5 will be hardware wise, by the end of 2016 (assuming a late 2020 launch) they knew what what they were doing hardware wise. End of 2015 if late 2019. There will be no changing things after Microsoft show their hand....

Adam Tyner · Aug 25, 2018

Burdmayn said:
Guys, I'm looking at getting a 4k TV next Spring and don't want to buy a PS4 Pro. Therefore, PS5 is coming out in Fall 2019. You're welcome.

Incorrect. Sony has a press conference to announce the system tentatively scheduled for The Day After Burdmayn Breaks Down and Buys a PS4 Pro Even Though He Said That'd Never Happen.

TheDeep1974 · Aug 25, 2018

Tonky said:
Like an E3 2016 Scorpio announcement or an E3 2017 Xbox One X announcement?

Proper announcement

Kyoufu · Aug 25, 2018

BitsandBytes said:
As in whatever PS5 will be hardware wise, by the end of 2016 (assuming a late 2020 launch) they knew what what they were doing hardware wise. End of 2015 if late 2019. There will be no changing things after Microsoft show their hand....

Yeah and I don't think MS will do things much differently either. After the mess of Xbox One's hardware I think they'll far more developer friendly this time, with the XB1X being early proof of that. In the end I expect very similar machines.

LinktothePastGOAT · Aug 25, 2018

Anthony Hopkins said:
So you think the PS5 release is revolving around you, and your purchase of a 4k tv?

Lol he's joking...

Deleted member 36493 · Aug 25, 2018

I was thinking back to the PS3 lineup the year that the PS4 launched and it does seem pretty similar in magnitude to the PS4's 2019 lineup:

TLOU: Part II
Ghost of Tsushima
Days Gone
Death Stranding

TLOU
God of War: Ascension
Beyond: Two Souls
Gran Turismo 6

Not saying I think the PS5 will launch in 2019, but the fact that PS4 is still getting huge exclusives wouldn't necessarily prevent it from happening. There's also a possibility of some of those games in the PS4 lineup having a simultaneous launch with a potential PS5 version.

5Twist · Aug 25, 2018

Tonky said:
I was thinking back to the PS3 lineup the year that the PS4 launched and it does seem pretty similar in magnitude to the PS4's 2019 lineup:

TLOU: Part II
Ghost of Tsushima
Days Gone
Death Stranding

TLOU
God of War: Ascension
Beyond: Two Souls
Gran Turismo 6

Not saying I think the PS5 will launch in 2019, but the fact that PS4 is still getting huge exclusives wouldn't necessarily prevent it from happening. There's also a possibility of some of those games in the PS4 lineup having a simultaneous launch with a potential PS5 version.

Also, unlike the PS4 that lacks PS3 BC, the PS5 will most likely launch with PS4 BC.

Sprat · Aug 25, 2018

5Twist said:
Also, unlike the PS4 that lacks PS3 BC, the PS5 will most likely launch with PS4 BC.

It won't if all the touch pad & lightbar haters get their way and get a controller without them.

Kyoufu · Aug 25, 2018

ItsTonyB said:
It won't if all the touch pad & lightbar haters get their way and get a controller without them.

I don't think that matters tbh. Even if those features are removed, there's nothing stopping people from using DS4s for PS4 BC software.

Deleted member 5764 · Aug 25, 2018

Adam Tyner said:
Incorrect. Sony has a press conference to announce the system tentatively scheduled for The Day After Burdmayn Breaks Down and Buys a PS4 Pro Even Though He Said That'd Never Happen.

Goddamnit...

PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

H2 2019

H1 2020

H2 2020

H1 2021

H2 2021

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