NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console

Boiled Goose · Aug 22, 2018

lt519 said:
Gah, I didn't know NOA published it. Maybe I'll play it in 2 years (: Just not a game any of us were eager to jump into at $60 with a lot of the cool other indie releases going on right now.

I skipped the Wii U version because I knew my friends weren't getting it. But we're all already talking about Smash for the Switch. It's going to be massive, because I'm clearly the barometer for how well a game will do.

Of course anecdotal evidence is not the most compelling...

But I knew the Switch would be successful when friends started buying it. They would have NEVER considered buying a wiiU.

Smash on Switch will be huge. Not limited by WiiU. The Wii had a stigma with some gamers. GameCube and N64 weren't super successful.

Ultimate will be the first time the franchises potential will be truly unlocked.

Deleted member 3017 · Aug 22, 2018

Philly Cheesesteak said:
Pro sales only make up about 20-25% of sales for PS4 anyway, so Pro shortages may not be affecting them overall that much. If Sony give the base model a decent price cut, it could still do wel. L

Since NPD is based on revenue, Pro shortages are absolutely having an effect on PS4's performance in the charts. And in terms of overall units, the Pro is becoming more and more desirable as we get deeper into the generation, so overall unit sales could be affected as well.

P-Switch · Aug 22, 2018

CaviarMeths said:
I don't think it's going to be terribly difficult for Switch to take the holiday season. The question is whether or not it will be enough to overtake PS4's lead for the rest of the year. Maybe, maybe not. Sept and Oct are gonna be huge for PS4, so it's gonna be close, I think.

For April and May, Sony sold ~550k during those GoW/Detroit/far Cry 5 months.

I don't see Sept and Oct being that much different, and I don't see why the Switch would be that far off those two months either. I think Mario Party will do very well, actually.

So I do think nov/December for Switch will erase any deficit the previous months.

SuperFakerBros · Aug 22, 2018

OrbitalBeard said:
It hasn't left NPD since March, 2017.

And it will still be charting in March, 2019. Almost guaranteed.

Never thought we'd see a Zelda evergreen, but here we are.

The honeymoon remains strong

P-Switch · Aug 22, 2018

Saint-14 said:
I don't think the difference is that big but could be wrong, Sony is also currently facing Pro shortages so that's another reason to think they won't take it.

Well good, 2 ps4 hardware powered skus vs 1 Switch sku would have been unfair! :P

foxuzamaki · Aug 22, 2018

Absolute said:
Wow. Congrats to the devs. They did a fantastic job promoting the game. I'm so so excited about a decently funded sequel. Am I being optimistic expect Square Enix to invest in this.? I know they are a big publisher who focus' on their biggest multi million seller games.

I have not even played the it but from following sales-age seeing it so badly losing out in Japan through poor distribution I am honestly so happy for the Devs. This is a huge success and I hope for a sequel releasing day and date on all consoles and PC. I think that game could sell 3-4 million worldwide.

Well the last game the producers did that reached 1 million, got a sequel greenlit on a even lower budget, that was bravely default and it's sequel bravely second.

Saint-14 · Aug 22, 2018

P-Switch said:
Well good, 2 ps4 hardware powered skus vs 1 Switch sku would have been unfair! :P

You're joking hopefully.

Nikachu · Aug 22, 2018

REALLY surprised at the success of Octopath, very happy. Also Super Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, and Mario Kart 8 are still DOMINATED. Wow.

foxuzamaki · Aug 22, 2018

Mister Megative said:
In case anyone is interested, Mat is on our podcast every month to give an NPD rundown. He'll be on tomorrow night.

Whats the name of the podcast?

John Harker · Aug 22, 2018

It's fun to see all these third parties put together technical test teams to see if they can get their big games on the Switch. The thirst is real haha.

The answer is going to be streaming, and if anyone can crack it this gen. Kudos to guys like Capcom and Square for moving first on it - it's much easier to pull off in Japan than say the U.S., and most U.S western games have more multiplayer challenges that make streaming even harder.

But that's the conclusion some teams are coming to, for some games. So they may miss this gen.

Bethesda seems to have solved it

julian · Aug 22, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
I'm around for questions.

That stat in the OP about Xbox platform being up 50% and Sony being up 60%, how does that relate to the Nintendo stat you threw out about their physical software being up 70%? Is the Xbox/Sony stat talking about dollar amounts including hardware and software? And if software, I assume it includes digital? I just wasn't clear how to relate those numbers to each other - if even possible.

NateDrake · Aug 22, 2018

Joseki said:
Can you tell us if Switch is up or down YoY? It should be close either way.

In Japan is the best selling SKU, is close to that in the west too?

Western sales have been strong. Can't get into specifics, but it's done very well for itself.

klanar · Aug 22, 2018

CaviarMeths said:
I don't think it's going to be terribly difficult for Switch to take the holiday season. The question is whether or not it will be enough to overtake PS4's lead for the rest of the year. Maybe, maybe not. Sept and Oct are gonna be huge for PS4, so it's gonna be close, I think.

For what it's worth though, Sony recently updated their FY forecast to 19m units worldwide. Nintendo held onto their 20m forecast. So what Mat is predicting is pretty much in line with what the platform holders themselves are expecting.

Didn't Sony up their forecast from 16M to 17M?

hechicero · Aug 22, 2018

so handhelds are "consoles" now , good for nintendo but i dont see them taking over Sony as the hype for a new gen is coming and the switch will be way behind in power.

MasterChumly · Aug 22, 2018

Philly Cheesesteak said:
This is why I'm wary of Mat's prediction of Switch becoming the top selling console in 2018. If PS4 is selling at a ridiculous pace especially as we are about to go into the fall and holiday seasons with Spider-Man, RDR2, Black Ops 4, etc, then Nintendo would have to not only make up the sales from the rest of the year, but also outpace PS4 for the holiday season and that without even taking into account marketing and possible price cuts from Sony.

Do we have the YTD comparison between PS4 and Switch?

Honestly if the switch is going to hit their fiscal year targets it pretty much has to beat the PS4. That would indicate that Nintendo is willing to push it this holiday season and potentially drop the price/bundle it to hit their targets. I can't imagine that Nintendo would be willing to let the switch wildly miss their target.

BlueManifest · Aug 22, 2018

hechicero said:
so handhelds are "consoles" now , good for nintendo but i dont see them taking over Sony as the hype for a new gen is coming and the switch will be way behind in power.

The switch is already way behind in power and that hasn't stopped it
Power isn't important for people that want a switch

Deleted member 3017 · Aug 22, 2018

John Harker said:
It's fun to see all these third parties put together technical test teams to see if they can get their big games on the Switch. The thirst is real haha.

The answer is going to be streaming, and if anyone can crack it this gen. Kudos to guys like Capcom and Square for moving first on it - it's much easier to pull off in Japan than say the U.S., and most U.S western games have more multiplayer challenges that make streaming even harder.

But that's the conclusion some teams are coming to, for some games. So they may miss this gen.

Bethesda seems to have solved it

I honestly don't understand why more third parties don't just port over some of their best legacy content. Stuff like Bioshock 1, Modern Warfare Remastered, Resident Evil 4, Max Payne 3, etc.

These catalog titles would likely find good success on the platform. And they could probably get away with selling most of 'em at $30-$40.

Tom_Cody · Aug 22, 2018

NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1

What a time to be alive.

SuperFakerBros · Aug 22, 2018

hechicero said:
so handhelds are "consoles" now , good for nintendo but i dont see them taking over Sony as the hype for a new gen is coming and the switch will be way behind in power.

It has the functionality of a console and has the attach rate and hype of a console. It also has the functionality of a handheld. It's both

...the Switch is already way behind in terms of power and that hasn't stopped it from doing well. Power is the least of Nintendo's concern, really, as the past 10+ years have shown. I think the Switch will continue to do well

hechicero · Aug 22, 2018

BlueManifest said:
The switch is already way behind in power and that hasn't stopped it

like i said a new gen is coming they may not get big AAA games anymore

p.s. I like nintendo

CaviarMeths · Aug 22, 2018

klanar said:
Didn't Sony up their forecast from 16M to 17M?

You're right. PS4 sold 19m last fiscal year and I was misremembering that as their forecast for the current year. Thanks for the correction, I'll edit my post.

SuperFakerBros · Aug 22, 2018

hechicero said:
like i said a new gen is coming they may not get big AAA games anymore

p.s. I like nintendo

They're already not getting big AAA games and they haven't for a while. The system is still a big hit. Again, what does that change?

Medalion · Aug 22, 2018

Pachter: Ok... 9 million.

VinylCassette64 · Aug 22, 2018

Oof, was hoping Sonic Mania Plus would had charted somewhere in the US charts, given its modest performance in Europe and how well it was reviewing. It didn't even get into the Top 20 games of the month or appear on the Top 10 Switch charts.

Pretty disappointing IMO, really wish Sega spent some more coin on marketing the re-release to a general audience.

P-Switch · Aug 22, 2018

OrbitalBeard said:
Since NPD is based on revenue, Pro shortages are absolutely having an effect on PS4's performance in the charts. And in terms of overall units, the Pro is becoming more and more desirable as we get deeper into the generation, so overall unit sales could be affected as well.

I'm pretty sure when MatPiscatella is predicting Switch to be the "best-selling platform in 2018" he means units not revenue.

He knows we arent keeping up with revenue differences between Xbox/ps/Switch every month :P

legend166 · Aug 22, 2018

If we assumed a Switch digital share of 15%, would that have any material impact on the rankings?

I say 15% as I think Nintendo reported that their share of digital sales at 25%, but that includes titles without physical releases.

Vareon · Aug 22, 2018

Also thanks Mat and the NPD team as always for the data.

Fairxchange · Aug 22, 2018

Wow, congrats Octopath! Loving my playthrough. For anyone on the fence, pick it up!

TripaSeca · Aug 22, 2018

This is even more amazing considering Sony and MS rank with digital and Nintendon't.

Deleted member 3017 · Aug 22, 2018

P-Switch said:
I'm pretty sure when MatPiscatella is predicting Switch to be the "best-selling platform in 2018" he means units not revenue.

He know we arent keeping up with revenue differences between Xbox/ps/Switch every month :P

Yeah, he probably does mean units in this case. Good point.

Welfare · Aug 22, 2018

Philly Cheesesteak said:
Do we have the YTD comparison between PS4 and Switch?

Switch is ~300K behind PS4. At most I would expect the gap to be ~400K by October. That can easily be erased by November and December.

BlueManifest · Aug 22, 2018

Kinda related to software and hardware sales, but why did metroid prime 4 suddenly shoot up to the number 3 best seller on amazon

Was a new trailer shown or something? Because it wasn't even in the top 100 a week ago

P-Switch · Aug 22, 2018

hechicero said:
so handhelds are "consoles" now , good for nintendo but i dont see them taking over Sony as the hype for a new gen is coming and the switch will be way behind in power.

lol

Allyougame · Aug 22, 2018

So great to see Octopath Traveler open at the top, helping add to the spotlight on RPGs as other notable games have done in recent years. Thanks to everyone for supporting an amazing game.

New Fang · Aug 22, 2018

VinylCassette64 said:
Oof, was hoping Sonic Mania Plus would had charted somewhere in the US charts, given its modest performance in Europe and how well it was reviewing. It didn't even get into the Top 20 games of the month or appear on the Top 10 Switch charts.

Pretty disappointing IMO, really wish Sega spent some more coin on marketing the re-release to a general audience.

Not that surprising. Most people who wanted it bought it digitally over the past year. The physical release was just another option to get some physical collector purchases (like me) and double dippers.

TripaSeca said:
This is even more amazing considering Sony and MS rank with digital and Nintendon't.

Good point

Deleted member 2145 · Aug 22, 2018

hechicero said:
like i said a new gen is coming they may not get big AAA games anymore

p.s. I like nintendo

anymore?

Skittzo · Aug 22, 2018

Wow so Octopath did get #1 even with the shortages. Very impressive result for a fantastic game. For those of you on the fence about it don't let the whole lack of overarching story thing stop you, the stories do indeed come together in a rather unique and compelling way in the post game.

Benji said:
Smash Ultimate should be the largest launch for a Nintendo game ever on a home console

Oh wow.

Would that also make it the largest launch of all time for an exclusive on a home console too?

And just think, they probably have at least two more big Smash Directs or segments in other Directs before launch.

Ometeotl · Aug 22, 2018

hechicero said:
so handhelds are "consoles" now , good for nintendo but i dont see them taking over Sony as the hype for a new gen is coming and the switch will be way behind in power.

Lmao

hechicero · Aug 22, 2018

SuperFakerBros said:
They're already not getting big AAA games and they haven't for a while. The system is still a big hit. Again, what does that change?

Well ive seen the rumour of a stronger switch and it might help the continued sucsess into next gen. But i fell its first two years is a flame that could flameout.

mael · Aug 22, 2018

klanar said:
What if since they did not announce a port for nsmbu this year, they are making a new one for next year instead like u just said?

It would seriously make more sense than just dropping the old game like that.
2D Mario is literally their biggest and most reliable franchise, it's like the one franchise where if it appears on a machine it's instant best sales performance on the machine.
No need to talk about SMB1 to SMW, but NSMB is one of biggest game on DS, NSMBW is one of the biggest games on ultra popular Wii, even on WiiU it's one of the best selling game!
Squandering the thirst for 2D Mario on a port of an old game is bad business, while it's not as easy as it can seem to make a full game of fresh new 2D Mario (as Mario Maker and NSMB2 showed) it's still way less costly and easier to make than pretty much any other of their big properties

Benji · Aug 22, 2018

DMVfan123 said:
Benji How are the Spider-Man PS4 Pro bundles tracking, if you know?

Hey, sorry I haven't gotten any sort of updated tracking on Spidey Pro Hardware

New Fang · Aug 22, 2018

mael said:
It would seriously make more sense than just dropping the old game like that.
2D Mario is literally their biggest and most reliable franchise, it's like the one franchise where if it appears on a machine it's instant best sales performance on the machine.
No need to talk about SMB1 to SMW, but NSMB is one of biggest game on DS, NSMBW is one of the biggest games on ultra popular Wii, even on WiiU it's one of the best selling game!
Squandering the thirst for 2D Mario on a port of an old game is bad business, while it's not as easy as it can seem to make a full game of fresh new 2D Mario (as Mario Maker and NSMB2 showed) it's still way less costly and easier to make than pretty much any other of their big properties

I really think the U port would have made so much sense last summer. Releasing it now just pushes off an entirely new 2D Mario way into the future, which would be sad to see.

RedDevil · Aug 22, 2018

Woah! So glad for Octopath Traveler. Too bad for the stock issues in some parts of the globe.

So a turn based RPG on a Nintendo console, not named Pokémon, developed by a Square-Enix studio is the top charting game of the month, gotta let that sink in.

VinylCassette64 said:
Oof, was hoping Sonic Mania Plus would had charted somewhere in the US charts, given its modest performance in Europe and how well it was reviewing. It didn't even get into the Top 20 games of the month or appear on the Top 10 Switch charts.

Pretty disappointing IMO, really wish Sega spent some more coin on marketing the re-release to a general audience.

I guess, the majority of people got Mania on its original release and might've gotten Plus as DLC afterwards. I would've gotten Sonic Mania Plus physically if I would've not bought Mania when it launched.

Hellsing321 · Aug 22, 2018

Holy shit @ Octopath! Switch users are feasting this summer.

Instro · Aug 22, 2018

I was hoping the Megaman X collection would chart. Any info on how that did?

SuperFakerBros · Aug 22, 2018

hechicero said:
Well ive seen the rumour of a stronger switch and it might help the continued sucsess into next gen. But i fell its first two years is a flame that could flameout.

That more or less never happens. Like I don't think a fall like that has ever occurred for a fast selling system so soon

Benji · Aug 22, 2018

I did not realize how much traction my comment on Smash Ultimate would get

RIP my notifications when it doesnt launch as big as I think it will come December

SuperFakerBros · Aug 22, 2018

New Fang said:
I really think the U port would have made so much sense last summer. Releasing it now just pushes off an entirely new 2D Mario way into the future, which would be sad to see.

On the flip side, they could be doing wondrous things for 2D Mario or maybe even a new IP instead in the mean time. Gotta look for the positives, ya know

DVCY201 · Aug 22, 2018

Wow, I guess Nintendo pushing Octopath worked!

Jawbreaker · Aug 22, 2018

Saint-14 said:
You're joking hopefully.

When in doubt, check the post history.

NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console

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