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Michael Pachter says Nintendo Switch is tracking to sell 8 million units this Fiscal Year
- Thread starter Andri
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I don't see how he could be only talking about the US when he specifically mentions the 20m figure, which is global.
Did he mean they're at 8 million so far this f. Year?
Did he mean they're at 8 million so far this f. Year?
People still shitposting ablut Pachter https://kotaku.com/revisiting-michael-pachters-2013-predictions-for-2016-1790520436
like every analyst he gets some things wrong, some right
like every analyst he gets some things wrong, some right
Next time you want to mindlessly insult people, do a smidgen of research first.
This isn't bad news, this is bad speculation coming from a bad analyst.
I just listened to it. You guys need to get your ears cleaned. He very clearly says, "They're tracking two eight million." That's 28 million. Congrats on your upcoming huge success Nintendo!
This is a Smash/Pokémon Year. With Diablo and other 3rd Part surprises hitting. In the same year that their premium online service is launching. With almost 500k in Japan Alone. Again, in a Smash/Pokémon year. 8mil as a highball is fucking laughable.
He only says it's currently tracking which means what numbers he has seen now. That's not his personal prediction on what it could sell.
That isn't possible. Switch couldn't have possibly sold eight millions so far this fiscal year.
Except an analysts prediction isn't "bad news"...not to mention thinking it'll only sell 8 million is absurd.
I think the fact Switch sold 17 million in its first fiscal year should raise alarm bells for anybody who thinks 8 million (a 50% drop off) is remotely reasonable considering the momentum of the system and the two bombshells releasing this holiday.
Okay, I listened to it, he is definitely talking about worldwide. In that case, dude is wrong. Plain and simple, Nintendo will ship more than 8 million in Q3 alone. What is this dude talking about?
Do you recall what they looked like originally? I find the analysis of this version a little off myself, and the charts don't read great to me but they're still understandable.
I thought so too but nope. Go to 8:55 in the video.
He literally looked at this page https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html and saw "Welp 2m in Q2 guess that's gonna be 8m total!"
The first one is the same the second one was one of the worst pie charts I've ever seen.
Last I heard, Pachter was no such thing. He is indeed a financial analyst, but his job is NOT focused on gaming. The entire reason he publicly comments on gaming is because it isn't his real job. If you wanted to know his analysis for his actual professional focus, you'd have to hire his company and pay him.
It's tracking "to" 8m. Based on what numbers he's seen atm. It's not a prediction.
What does it mean ? That it is tracking to sell 8 millions ? Meaning that he saw the current numbers (that we have at disposition by the way) and estimated that it would sell 8 million by March 31st ? It is also virtually impossible.
That's still nonsense. It implies his tracking model is complete and utterly bunk which is just as bad.
The one of the content in each game? Yeah that didn't really get explained at all and seems sort of irrelevant. Both of these charts are bad to read, was the second even worse to begin with, though?
No he didn't. He said and I quote
Patcher said:
He is not talking about current sales.
He's a financial analyst but not a games one. Games are something he sort of does on the side and his comments on games analysis should never be taken 100% seriously as he more often than not, gets things totally wrong.
But why would he apply linear growth to a Nintendo console, when Nintendo regularly sells around 50% of their yearly HW stock during Q3 of the fiscal year? Is there any console maker who display a linear growth during their fiscal year?
He can't be that dumb right? Like...he has to know about holiday sales?!?
He means ww, mentioned the 20 milion. Personally believing Pachter in anything non-Sony related is pretty much useless: he has proven to be very bias towards them - I have read in spanish videogame websites that he holds Sony stock, not sure if it is true, but if true it gives him a reason to bash Microsoft and Nintendo.
Furthermore, he is a Nintendo hater as well, so obviously whenever he can he will bash Nintendo. Other analyst hate Nintendo too, so this is nothing surprising. I mean, there were people predicting the Switch will sell like 3 milion in its first year.
If that's for the US market that seems fair. If that is the world wide number then I am really curious why Patcher thinks Pokémon and Smash during the holiday season would not be a big hit.
But like all he did was multiply the number of shipments in one quarter by four. It's super lazy and makes no sense. That was about how much they sold at that time last year and it sold way more than that.
Didn't first quarter of this FY do like 2 million units? Sounds like he took that and said, 2m × 4 = 8 million and didn't bother to account for seasonal changes or big upcoming releases.
Why would any console maker have linear growth during the holiday?
This isn't getting stuff wrong, this is having absolute no idea what your talking about. That's far more erroneous.
Sure, but this prediction is literally the worst. He projected by taking Q2 shipments and extrapolating them over an entire year, even a forum poster can tell you why that's wrong.
OP
OP
I listened to it again, and i am 99% sure he said 8 million.
But maybe he meant 18 ?
Though if he did his follow up sentence does not make much sense, since he followed the 8 million up by saying they will miss the 20m prediction by "a mile".
Its normal. People here just want to hear to what they want. I remember old neogaf analysts make damn right predictions, but some not so right.
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