Okay so I've got an interesting quandary.
My league is going advanced football metrics this year and we've reduced our PPR bonus to 0.5 (From 1 PPR), and then added a PPFD (points per first down) at 0.5. We want to try it out and it sounds like something that'll help add value to backs who have generally become undervalued over the last 5-10 years of the PPR boom.
Here's a Ringer article breaking down PPFD. If anything, it'll just add another scoring wrinkle to games and we really like that... Some excitement in a fantasy game being decided by a player getting stopped 1 yard short of key first down, or your player stretches out for a 1st down and you get some added value for that extra effort.
We have a 1 player keeper league, where you lose the round that you drafted that player in the previous season (with a max of losing a 5th round pick).
My realistic/strategic keeper options are:
- Leonard Fournette
Losing a 2nd round pick.
ADP: #12 (last pick of the first round for us)
- Joe Mixon
Losing a 4th round pick.
ADP: #23 (2nd to last pick of the 2nd round for us)
I've got some other value picks, like Larry Fitzgerald who is going as the 35 ADP (Round 2, Pick 11), and I would give up a 5th round pick for him, or Evan Engram where I'd lose a 5th and he's going in the 5th, I've also got other high value talent (AJ Green for instance) but the draft pick I'd lose doesn't make sense to keep them... but I'm really stumped between Fournette and Mixon.
Points Per First down throws an interesting wrinkle into this, as well as reducing the PPR value.
So...
Leonard Fournette in 2017 had a standard scoring value of #10 overall. But if you add 1PPR to the mix, then his value drops considerably, from #10 overall to #19. So, given that we're halving the value of PPR from 1 to 0.5, then Fournette suddenly becomes more valuable in our league. And then, with PPFD, Fournette actually stays flat, he's got an overall #10 in standard, and he's overall #10 in PPFD as well.
Joe Mixon, in 2017, had a standard scoring value of #65. If you add in 1PPR, he dropped significantly down to #86, but with PPFD, his value jumps from #65 to #60. Mixon is also going high in a lot of leagues and seems like a high value fantasy option this year.
So... I'm leaning towards keeping Mixon and giving up a 4th round pick for him. But, I want to know if I'm crazy or not.