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BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- Thread starter theaface
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... He is so unbelievably out of touch in his manners of speech, it's horrific.
Which means that the UK electorate will absolutely vote him in for PM one day.
That thread is amazing. The UK Government is still in full British entitlement mode, thinking the EU should:
- create a joint committee through which to consult the UK for future laws
- create a special arbitration tribunal for disputes exclusively with the UK
- create a mutual recognition of qualifications framework exclusively with the UK
Raab is a complete arse. One side has already been stalling the discussions on trade agreements. It's not the EU.
Rees-Mogg continues to be a complete arse who uses terrible historical analogies that don't help his case.
When the Le Goulet peace broke down (over John's refusal to be judged by a European court!) things got much worse and England lost almost all of its French possessions and influence. Basically, no deal turned out to be much worse than a bad deal.
Fuck me that thread is complicated. Who knew leaving the EU would be difficult? /s
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I'm increasingly of the mind that, time extension granted or not, there are only two outcomes here:
- We crash out without a deal.
- There is a people's vote of some kind.
Parliament seems to be in perpetual paralysis and doesn't look like it will ever get anywhere near close to an agreement on the way forward. A people's vote is an "easy" out of this mess if handled correctly (which means it won't be).
- We crash out without a deal.
- There is a people's vote of some kind.
Parliament seems to be in perpetual paralysis and doesn't look like it will ever get anywhere near close to an agreement on the way forward. A people's vote is an "easy" out of this mess if handled correctly (which means it won't be).
Making preparations for hard brexit does not mean it's a desirable or even acceptable outcome for a party.
Neither party will really be prepared for a cliff edge scenario. This will become increasingly apparent over the next few months.
This is a long drawn out game of chicken. The EU is betting that the closer they get to the deadline the more leverage they have to get the compromise they do.
When they get there either the EU extends or both parties disengage or the UK capitulates. There is no other outcomes.
The kicker is the government doesn't need to pass a no deal scenario through parliament simply in two scenarios.
1) There is no deal to sign, the government simply rejects the deal outright.
2) If the deal is not agreeable in parliament the default outcome is hard brexit so for hard brexiteers all they would need to do is table Canada style deal which would mean hard exit regardless of outcome.
I think realistically this is the only part where the EU is actually willing to negotiate on at all.
I can see a long transition period as a much more tenable position for both parties than backing down more than they have.
As it stand both parties are at an impasse hoping time pressure will force each other to balk.
I really don't see what point an extension would be without a serious change of leadership on the UK side of the negotiation...
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It's a tough one, as the options to select from have to be actual things that the government can deliver. There's zero point giving an option that contains any form of cakeism. At best, I see it as a choice between:
- A basic FTA
- Norway model
- Remain
A three way referendum wont fly. What would be the winning threshold? 33.3333%? That'd be a disaster waiting to happen. "66.666% did not want that..."
That has the risk of splitting votes though doesn't it. I agree it has to be deliverable otherwise the campaigns will be cake nonsense and lies. Rock and a hard place, how do you come to a deal with the EU but then decide to let the people vote on it, would really depend if the government wants to get us out of this mess, are they that wise and playing the long game?
The weird thing about saying "parliament is paralysed therefore we should have a people's vote" is, how do you expect to this people's vote to happen? A 2nd Brexit referendum is hard for the same reason everything else is hard, there aren't enough votes for it in parliament.
It just seems to me that time is running out at a very fast clip.
There really is no movement towards a peoples vote in government or parliament.
How long would it take to set up once it is decided?
There really is no movement towards a peoples vote in government or parliament.
How long would it take to set up once it is decided?
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True, but to even put a question to the public needs agreement from parliament. Without options to satisfy soft and hard Brexiteers, I don't see a path to even having a referendum.
To get there, we'd need a GE and for it to form part of someone's manifesto. Don't get me wrong, I'm well aware of the ifs, buts and maybes to get us there. It's a shitshow from any angle you look at it.
Is there any precedent for a referendum using an STV-like system? Any reason why it couldn't be done?
I've said it for a while now. The only way I see out of this if May just says fuck it, withdraws the Article 50 notification and we pretend this whole thing never happened.
Then we get a leadership challenge, a new GE with a hung parliament and deadlock in UK politics for a while while everyone figures out where up and down is.
Either that or the UK crashes and burns right off the cliff edge.
Then we get a leadership challenge, a new GE with a hung parliament and deadlock in UK politics for a while while everyone figures out where up and down is.
Either that or the UK crashes and burns right off the cliff edge.
Take one for the team May. I hope she does, write a great speech about the UK in the EU, the real truths hammer it home, changes being set in motion for immigration, investment outside of London etc. Revoke article 50. I think she could do it and hold her head high. She just needs to tell the truth.
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1017384661075550208?s=19
Good thread by a trade policy expert.
This Chequers deal is one of the horsemen of the Tory apocalypse.
Good thread by a trade policy expert.
This Chequers deal is one of the horsemen of the Tory apocalypse.
Well it's already a no from the EU Parliament, as their rep (whose name I cannot spell) and his committee on Brexit have already indicated that they are still opposed to dividing the four freedoms and to expose the EU customs border to a third country.
It has to actually kick off first. May is presumably just attempting to get through until the recess.
It has to actually kick off first. May is presumably just attempting to get through until the recess.
I can't wait for the howls from the swivel eyed when they realise the already watered down will need to be watered down even further...
Good point, I have no idea what would happen if article 50 is revoked but the Great Bigly Withdrawal Act is not changed or repealed.
Absolute damming report on this offer, it is long
http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/12/if-this-is-all-the-government-has-for-its-brexit-white-paper
I particularly like this line
http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/12/if-this-is-all-the-government-has-for-its-brexit-white-paper
I particularly like this line
One of the major concerns any Brexiteer must have about the customs model proposed is that it will take until after the '22 GE (if this parliament lasts that long) to finish getting the model set up. Meaning that a new government could very easily go to the EU and convert the backstop EEA/CU agreement that the Brexiteers will vote for as a stopgap into a permanent arrangement, or, given the UK has not managed to actually disengage from the EU by that point, trigger a relatively speedy re-entry.
Hence, given May's desire for this stupid model, we're either getting No Deal (the only "clean break" possible) or No Brexit. Given No Deal isn't going to happen...
Hence, given May's desire for this stupid model, we're either getting No Deal (the only "clean break" possible) or No Brexit. Given No Deal isn't going to happen...
There needs to be legislation written up in the agreement to recall article 50 that commits the U.K. to the EU for at least the next 20 years without being able to leave.
In that time they'll need to refine the EU guidelines to make sure they can't pull this shit again in a few years. Sure May will have no career after this but at least she won't be thatcher.
In that time they'll need to refine the EU guidelines to make sure they can't pull this shit again in a few years. Sure May will have no career after this but at least she won't be thatcher.
So the white paper seems more like a fudge between what we have now minus the EU,SM,CU benefits whilst pretending to have taken back control but everything will be one way in future EU-UK future relations?
Brexit is going to tear the Conservative party apart.
Brexit is going to tear the Conservative party apart.
JRM: The manga carta has made the Monarch nothing but a figurehead for the barons.
He will never be PM. Whatever you say about modern Britain, he is a Catholic and that loses a lot of Tory votes. Just look at the English fans in Russia shouting No Surrender.
It's a shame that Labour is incapable of seizing on this weakness currently. We should realistically be staring down 10 years of Labour now, but nope
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Don't worry, the Corbyn defense force will tell you how he exceeded all expectations at the last GE and that despite making no gains on the Tories then (despite them committing every conceivable type of fuck-up since then), he's the best man for the job. Oh and just be sure to overlook that he's offering the exact same type of Brexit nonsense as the Tories, but it's ok because Labour are in opposition and don't need to have the answers apparently.
1. Stop offering the exact same type of cakeism nonsense about Brexit as the government. A customs union, not the customs union, blah blah blah. It doesn't wash anymore. Remember the 48%? Seems like nobody does anymore. If they want to talk about a jobs-first Brexit, it's time to put up. They can't be all things to all people. The Tories are already trying that tactic, so why would a voter switch sides?
2. Get tough on anti-semitism. Too many own goals, still ongoing. Smear campaign or not, Labour have an image problem here and don't do nearly enough to remedy it.
These people need to realize that as we're steered further and further into a disastrous Brexit without a 2nd ref or public vote on the deal and as the NHS and BBC are being gutted that they are absolutely complicit in what is happening, because Corbyn cannot stand up to them even if he wants to. He's the wrong man at the wrong time, and in turn it has made the party as divided and as weak as the Tories.
It's not going to necessarily be a very popular thing to say, but the party needs a different leader (and some policy alterations to follow that). Somebody a little more center left without the enormously divisive history/baggage/ammunition for the opposition Corbyn carries who holds up an actually staunch anti-Brexit stance would, I think, be able to pick up an enormous number of socially conscious middle-drifting anti Brexit Tory voters and quite possibly even get one or two hugely anti Brexit Tories to betray and cross the aisle. The problem is when you ask those drifting voters in the middle you need to win an election which they feel more uneasy about - Maybot's instability or Corbyn potentially being "Full Commie" (even if he patently is not), a lot of them say the latter, especially older voters.
Blair was obviously a shit and did some terrible things - he's arguably a war criminal - but his center left, borderline 'soft tory' party got them over a decade in power which did an enormous amount of social good in Britain - it's just overshadowed by the war shame (rightly) and the fact that all that has now been undone by the Tories... and some genuinely dog shit decisions around things like rail and public transport.
Anyway - even a party a bit more left of New Labour would've by now I think fully undermined the Tories and probably would've won May's snap election - but Corbyn is just too divisive to be realistically electable - and if he did get in it'd be by a hair, not with the majority you'd need to make sweeping changes. In this sense Corbyn is the definition of a pipe dream, because even if they gain momentum next election and get in, it's not going to be by enough to actually pass anything.
I think the truly sad (and dangerous) thing is that Rees-Mogg is probably more electable than Corbyn when push comes to shove. In many ways he is the Tory Corbyn - the man who most represents the absolute furthest reaches of the party to the point of almost being a caricature - but the difference is all about those middle voters. While I think Mogg is a contemptible toff tit who doesn't have any idea about what normal people worry about or live through, he has what I would've called the Boris Factor, before everybody woke up to what Boris is - where an awful number of those middle-of-the-road voters think he's cute, bumbling, old fashioned, and therefore quite likable. Corbyn meanwhile just sets off mad alarm bells about reds under the bed for many of those same people.
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Eh, idk, I think they'd overlook his Catholicism in favour of his assholishness. I say this as a Catholic myself who is fully aware of how much many English still dislike me.
I'm Irish so my knowledge wouldn't be the strongest but I was under the impression a Catholic could not become British PM. I think Tony Blair wanted to convert to Catholism but waited until he finished as Prime Minister. Obviously open to correction.
We're on course for the hard Brexit Corbyn wants. He's not going to do a thing to risk screwing that up.
User warned: Characterizing criticism of anti semitism as 'waffling'
So basically people want Labour to be anti-brexit. Then some anti Corbin nonsense and some anti semitism waffle which has nothing to do with Brexit.
I notice there wasn't a name attached to the will for a new leader.
I notice there wasn't a name attached to the will for a new leader.
It's not a chicken game, it's the wrong metaphor.
The worst thing that can happen is shrinking GDP growth, meanwhile it's an essential threat for the UK. Only an idiot would try a chicken game with the EU under this premise.
The worst thing that can happen is shrinking GDP growth, meanwhile it's an essential threat for the UK. Only an idiot would try a chicken game with the EU under this premise.
I've only seen unambiguous 100% support from the shitheel crowd for JRM. His Catholicism has only came up when sane people criticise him for being an awful Catholic. They currently hate Muslims more than they hate Catholics, so they'll bite their tongue, I think.
Of course that is true. And while the Tory press take every opportunity to bring up labour's ant in semitism issues they don't seem as enthusiastic to point out the rampant Islamophobia in the Conservative party.
Or the repeated calls for investigations to be put in place by various bodies.
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