PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

StraightToHell · Jul 9, 2018

VallenValiant said:
On the contrary, games alone do that for everyone.

Firstly, If we saw MS and Sony release new consoles within a similar window to each other, but one had a significant hardware advantage over the other, it's fair to expect a portion of gamers who are platform agnostic to gravitate to the platform they can best play their game on.

Secondly, if there isn't a reasonable jump in power in the next gen, why upgrade? What would those new games offer us that we don't have access already? We have hardware cycles to keep sales cycles going. I'm sure MS & Sony would love their machines to have longer lifespans if that had no detriment on sales.

VallenValiant said:
Because game consoles are for playing games, not for pissing contests arguing about hardware power. This is why the 1X had not moved the needle, and despite how hard ERA tried to push for its wider adoption.

- What they are for and how they are treated in reality are two different things. User bases are not a single demographic, but include many demographics. We also know there are people who will make their choice based on the joypad
- Whilst we're on the subject, ERA is also full of different voices and opinions, and many want different things from the next generation of consoles. We are not Borg!
- The mid-gen console refreshes are different from the launch of a new generation of hardware, as are the reasons for buying them
- Let's not forget 'Better Resolution' was the top reason why users chose to buy a PS4.

You can also separate motivations of wanting to get into the next generation of consoles from the motivations behind choosing a particular piece of hardware in that generation

Thorrgal · Jul 9, 2018

VallenValiant said:
Your belief that selling more powerful hardware would protect the ecosystem, is rather silly.

Do you really think people play on PS4 because of power?

Do you really think people will stay on PS5 because of power?

ERA is power-focused. But Sony doesn't target PS5 to ERA posters. There are many ways Sony can keep people on PS5 and maintain their PS+ subscription, but "more power" is not one of them.

I think you got confused, the one advocating for power was the other dude, and he said that said power could only be achieved by a $450 machine

My point was that the machine would cost $399 tops, and that if needed they would eat the cost, like they did in 2013.

So, you see, what I was saying would protect the ecosystem was price, not power.

Guess who looks silly now ;)

BreakAtmo · Jul 9, 2018

SharpX68K said:
That's fine. I don't think Sony is going to aim for an APU design where the CPU occupies less space than the PS4's Jaguars. The CPU part of PS5 will probably be at least roughly the same, if not slightly more. I'm sure all of Sony's 1st party developers, as well as third party devs, want the priority to be more focused on CPU than this gen was. The need/desire for much better physics, world simulation, dynamic environments, etc would be better served by a true 8 core CPU (and likely 16 threads), which will also become more & more standard on the PC side. This is already happening since the advent of RyZen desktop CPUs as of early 2017, and everyone is certain that Intel is moving to make 8c/16t standard in mainstream CPUs later this year. Further more, if we look at AMD's early Fusion APUs from 2011-2013, we see they all used 4 core Bobcat or Jaguar CPUs, but PS4 was the first APU design to double that to 8 cores (Xbox One as well). So if we look at the current Ryzen APUs all having 4c/8t, we can probably expect PS5 (and Scarlet) to double that.

One question - how would a console actually use those 16 threads? I remember hearing that threads aren't great for consoles because their performance is kind of unpredictable.

Apex88 · Jul 9, 2018

VallenValiant said:
On the contrary, games alone do that for everyone.
Because game consoles are for playing games, not for pissing contests arguing about hardware power. This is why the 1X had not moved the needle, and despite how hard ERA tried to push for its wider adoption.

It does feel like the power narrative has been sidelined and gamers want to see results. When you look at the output from Sony's 1st Party I struggle to see what devs actually need beyond the obvious CPU bump. Whether it's 8TF, 10TF......15TF, does it really matter so long as they can push out 4K, better textures etc.

When you have the likes of Digital Foundry and other journalists speculating PS4 Pro titles are actually PS5.......we really should trust said devs to advise the powers that be what they need in next-gen hardware. So many of the specs listed seem completely arbitrary.

SharpX68K · Jul 9, 2018

BreakAtmo said:
One question - how would a console actually use those 16 threads? I remember hearing that threads aren't great for consoles because their performance is kind of unpredictable.

I'm sure developers would find a way to use 16 threads, especially if next-gen starts in 2020 and goes into the late 2020s.

That said, 16 threads is not the key thing, 8 cores is though, even if it was just 8 cores, 8 threads (no SMT) but I really doubt it'll be enough to have a 4 core, 8 thread processor, for many reasons, including backward compatibility.

see anexanhume's post:

anexanhume said:
The Cerny patent describes in detail slowing down a core to behave like a previous generation core to match its execution times for backwards compatibility. That suggests a 1 for 1 core arrangement. Hyper threading will not guarantee it with a 4C/8T arrangement.

Deadlast · Jul 9, 2018

Apex88 said:
It does feel like the power narrative has been sidelined and gamers want to see results. When you look at the output from Sony's 1st Party I struggle to see what devs actually need beyond the obvious CPU bump. Whether it's 8TF, 10TF......15TF, does it really matter so long as they can push out 4K, better textures etc.

When you have the likes of Digital Foundry and other journalists speculating PS4 Pro titles are actually PS5.......we really should trust said devs to advise the powers that be what they need in next-gen hardware. So many of the specs listed seem completely arbitrary.

Jumping in here... I agree that games on the xbox and ps4 look great. Heck, even BOTW looks amazing on the switch. I think higher power specs are important for 3 years down the road. More power should allow for building out richer experiences. The more options that are available reduce the limitations that are put on game creators.

Deleted member 4976 · Jul 9, 2018

Apex88 said:
It does feel like the power narrative has been sidelined and gamers want to see results. When you look at the output from Sony's 1st Party I struggle to see what devs actually need beyond the obvious CPU bump. Whether it's 8TF, 10TF......15TF, does it really matter so long as they can push out 4K, better textures etc.

When you have the likes of Digital Foundry and other journalists speculating PS4 Pro titles are actually PS5.......we really should trust said devs to advise the powers that be what they need in next-gen hardware. So many of the specs listed seem completely arbitrary.

This to me is why PS5 is 2020. If I'm Sony, there's a few things I would be confident about. And one of them is the strength and quality of first party studios when it comes to visuals.

MS is releasing in 2020 (likely) and may or may not push a stronger console. PS5 could do a 2020 release, be slightly weaker than the XB2 and I'm still willing to bet that there will be one or two launch titles that'll blow peoples socks off visually, and either match or look significantly better than the competition depending on the Sony studio.

That's harder to do with a 2019 release, primarily due to the timing of it all on the software development side. Where as 2020 just seems a smarter choice from most perspectives.

jschreier · Jul 9, 2018

Xeontech said:
I think Jason made those statements before he found out the 2019 release plans. But he can't backtrack now or risk revealing what he's learned.

It's also very interesting that so many insiders were quick to jump on 2018 as impossible release date, but on the 2019 subject they've been mostly silent.

There's a lot more to it than that, but That's my take, More tinfoil hat speculating than anything.

I'm just speculating in the speculation thread.

This is horseshit.

2Blackcats · Jul 9, 2018

jschreier said:
This is horseshit.

Lol

5Twist · Jul 9, 2018

StraightToHell said:
- Let's not forget 'Better Resolution for less money' was one of the main reasons why users chose to buy a PS4.

Fixed to provide the full context.

M.Bluth · Jul 9, 2018

jschreier said:
This is horseshit.

Hahahaha

Sid · Jul 9, 2018

If Sony will release the PS5 in Q4 2020 which first party and big third party games do you think PS4 will have that year? Sony loves to announce games ~2.5 years in advance and I don't think the games shown at E3 will not come out in 2019....

Deleted member 5764 · Jul 9, 2018

I leave the thread for the weekend and find that we're really grasping at straws... Yikes guys. Speculation is one thing, but trying to will information into existence based on things that aren't discussed is lunacy.

Getting back on topic, I know the tech-savvy folks here have discussed AMD's new tech for ages now, but... just for the sake of conversation, is there any other vendor that could supply CPU/graphics hardware for next-gen consoles? If there's even a vague possibility, who would it be and what kind of tech would they have reasonably available?

Deleted member 4976 · Jul 9, 2018

jschreier said:
This is horseshit.

Lmao

Deleted member 25042 · Jul 9, 2018

SharpX68K said:
That's fine. I don't think Sony is going to aim for an APU design where the CPU occupies less space than the PS4's Jaguars. The CPU part of PS5 will probably be at least roughly the same, if not slightly more. I'm sure all of Sony's 1st party developers, as well as third party devs, want the priority to be more focused on CPU than this gen was. The need/desire for much better physics, world simulation, dynamic environments, etc would be better served by a true 8 core CPU (and likely 16 threads), which will also become more & more standard on the PC side. This is already happening since the advent of RyZen desktop CPUs as of early 2017, and everyone is certain that Intel is moving to make 8c/16t standard in mainstream CPUs later this year. Further more, if we look at AMD's early Fusion APUs from 2011-2013, we see they all used 4 core Bobcat or Jaguar CPUs, but PS4 was the first APU design to double that to 8 cores (Xbox One as well). So if we look at the current Ryzen APUs all having 4c/8t, we can probably expect PS5 (and Scarlet) to double that.

Priority should still be the GPU.
The situation is not the same as with PS4/XBONE where there was basically no semi decent CPU option from AMD.

Orb · Jul 9, 2018

Xeontech said:
Jason is a cool guy. I really respect his work.

Just on this subject, I'm going to say he's been misinformed as to the time line. That's my take on it anyhow.

No offense meant at all to Jason. But there will likely be a tease in December, a reveal in March, a blow out at E3, and a release in November 2019.

can the rest of us get a hit?

Jraphics Horse · Jul 9, 2018

'Those posts are misinformed. Just for your information'

Hey wait I was only speculating!

aerie · Jul 9, 2018

That is quite funny.

Kyoufu · Jul 9, 2018

Jraphics Horse said:
'Those posts are misinformed. Just for your information'

Hey wait I was only speculating!

Yeah, annoying to be honest. If you're going to talk like an insider then go all the way.

Adookah · Jul 9, 2018

jschreier said:
This is horseshit.

2020 it is.

OrdinaryPrime · Jul 9, 2018

jschreier said:
This is horseshit.

Appreciate the candor :P.

Anthony Hopkins · Jul 9, 2018

Primethius said:
This to me is why PS5 is 2020. If I'm Sony, there's a few things I would be confident about. And one of them is the strength and quality of first party studios when it comes to visuals.

MS is releasing in 2020 (likely) and may or may not push a stronger console. PS5 could do a 2020 release, be slightly weaker than the XB2 and I'm still willing to bet that there will be one or two launch titles that'll blow peoples socks off visually, and either match or look significantly better than the competition depending on the Sony studio.

That's harder to do with a 2019 release, primarily due to the timing of it all on the software development side. Where as 2020 just seems a smarter choice from most perspectives.

If either console is more powerful, it will be like this gen and down to resolution differences.

Deleted member 25042 · Jul 9, 2018

Wish it'd come out in 2019 so that I could play TLOU2, Spiderman, Ghosts of Tsushima etc on it (if it does offer BC of course) but 2020 seems the more likely option

anexanhume · Jul 9, 2018

Burdmayn said:
I leave the thread for the weekend and find that we're really grasping at straws... Yikes guys. Speculation is one thing, but trying to will information into existence based on things that aren't discussed is lunacy.

Getting back on topic, I know the tech-savvy folks here have discussed AMD's new tech for ages now, but... just for the sake of conversation, is there any other vendor that could supply CPU/graphics hardware for next-gen consoles? If there's even a vague possibility, who would it be and what kind of tech would they have reasonably available?

The only vendors they could use that wouldn't be a huge upheaval to BC and tools would be Intel for CPUs and Nvidia for GPUs. Intel's current GPUs won't scale high enough and their dGPU won't be ready in time.

The major mobile GPUs from Qualcomm, ARM, and ImgTec won't scale to desktop level performance, nor do they have the proper API support. ARM CPUs can be scaled up to an extent, but workloads aren't parallel enough for the performance gap to close.

Now, any combination of AMD or Intel CPUs and Nvidia or AMD GPUs should work, but you'd have to go back to discrete parts, advanced packages, or an unprecedented level of paternship to have die sharing or something near it. Frankly, the fact that Intel can't manage to shrink their own processes should scare anyone away from that path. As dire as it is, them porting a CPU design to a rival foundry is a far-fetched idea.

Kyoufu · Jul 9, 2018

Marmelade said:
Wish it'd come out in 2019 so that I could play TLOU2, Spiderman, Ghosts of Tsushima etc on it (if it does offer BC of course) but 2020 seems the more likely option

I still don't think TLOU2 comes out in 2019 tbh.

SharpX68K · Jul 9, 2018

Burdmayn said:
I leave the thread for the weekend and find that we're really grasping at straws... Yikes guys. Speculation is one thing, but trying to will information into existence based on things that aren't discussed is lunacy.

Getting back on topic, I know the tech-savvy folks here have discussed AMD's new tech for ages now, but... just for the sake of conversation, is there any other vendor that could supply CPU/graphics hardware for next-gen consoles? If there's even a vague possibility, who would it be and what kind of tech would they have reasonably available?

Nope.

Aside from Intel & Nvidia, both of whom would want way too much for what Sony would be willing to pay. there really is no one else.

PS5 is certain to be 100% AMD for CPU/GPU.

Sulik2 · Jul 9, 2018

I thought it would be 2021 for a long time, but seeing so many next-gen games already in development, its pretty obvious its Q4 2020 now. Next years E3 should be fun with the new console reveals. I'm still not sure AMD is going to have a mature enough process in place by 2020 to have a $400 console at 20-24TF that we need for a proper generational leap, but hopefully they have it down.

Miniature Kaiju · Jul 9, 2018

Sulik2 said:
I'm still not sure AMD is going to have a mature enough process in place by 2020 to have a $400 console at 20-24TF

Lol, good luck with that.

isahn · Jul 9, 2018

Adookah said:
2020 it is.

hey, I'm ok with this: we have powerful and relatively cheap mid-gen solutions from Sony and Microsoft to get us busy with tons of software and pretty decent IQ

Sulik2 · Jul 9, 2018

Miniature Kaiju said:
Lol, good luck with that.

My reasoning on this is you need that level of TF to make a proper 4k console last 6-7 years into the 2020s. By 2021 AMD should have their new processes and architecture in place to support that level of power at a reasonable consumer price point. Now that its looking like 2020, we aren't going to get consoles anywhere near that power and its going to be a struggle at 4k/30 by two or three years into the gen imho.

Miniature Kaiju · Jul 9, 2018

Sulik2 said:
My reasoning on this is you need that level of TF to make a proper 4k console last 6-7 years into the 2020s. By 2021 AMD should have their new processes and architecture in place to support that level of power at a reasonable consumer price point.

TSMC's 5nm might, and I reiterate, might be ready for mass production in 2021, but it won't bring a jump in perf anywhere large enough to give you this kind of perf in a resonable footprint, by their estimates. The kind of stuff you want is 2022, 2023 and beyond, at best.

Bunkles · Jul 9, 2018

jschreier said:
This is horseshit.

This string is 18 characters long. Shit is often in the shape of a log or a 1. So 18 + 1 is 19.

2019 it is.

Deleted member 5764 · Jul 9, 2018

anexanhume said:
The only vendors they could use that wouldn't be a huge upheaval to BC and tools would be Intel for CPUs and Nvidia for GPUs. Intel's current GPUs won't scale high enough and their dGPU won't be ready in time.

The major mobile GPUs from Qualcomm, ARM, and ImgTec won't scale to desktop level performance, nor do they have the proper API support. ARM CPUs can be scaled up to an extent, but workloads aren't parallel enough for the performance gap to close.

Now, any combination of AMD or Intel CPUs and Nvidia or AMD GPUs should work, but you'd have to go back to discrete parts, advanced packages, or an unprecedented level of paternship to have die sharing or something near it. Frankly, the fact that Intel can't manage to shrink their own processes should scare anyone away from that path. As dire as it is, them porting a CPU design to a rival foundry is a far-fetched idea.

SharpX68K said:
Nope.

Aside from Intel & Nvidia, both of whom would want way too much for what Sony would be willing to pay. there really is no one else.

PS5 is certain to be 100% AMD for CPU/GPU.

As always, I appreciate you folks chiming in! Seems like AMD is more or less a sure thing then barring some kind of crazy partnership. I suppose that isn't outside of the realm of possibility, but it certainly wouldn't be the route Sony took. That just leaves Microsoft as a wild card. I'm pretty excited to see what the actual hardware for both next-gen machines ends up being.

Ushay · Jul 9, 2018

jschreier said:
This is horseshit.

Oooooof, no punches were pulled.

OT - What's the current sentiment on releases? PS5 2019 or 2020? Xbox is most likely 2020.

Deleted member 5764 · Jul 9, 2018

Ushay said:
Oooooof, no punches were pulled.

OT - What's the current sentiment on releases? PS5 2019 or 2020? Xbox is most likely 2020.

The poll basically says it all. 2020 looks like the most realistic bet for both, but there's a sliver of a chance that PS5 hits in 2019 if Sony wants to be aggressive.

Thorrgal · Jul 9, 2018

Primethius said:
This to me is why PS5 is 2020. If I'm Sony, there's a few things I would be confident about. And one of them is the strength and quality of first party studios when it comes to visuals.

MS is releasing in 2020 (likely) and may or may not push a stronger console. PS5 could do a 2020 release, be slightly weaker than the XB2 and I'm still willing to bet that there will be one or two launch titles that'll blow peoples socks off visually, and either match or look significantly better than the competition depending on the Sony studio.

That's harder to do with a 2019 release, primarily due to the timing of it all on the software development side. Where as 2020 just seems a smarter choice from most perspectives.

One thing to remember is that noone likes to release a new game at launch because thei install base is smaller, so even if most games won't be ready until 2020/21 they still could launch the sku in 2019 with 1 AAA and a smaller title, like they did for the PS4

BitsandBytes · Jul 9, 2018

Ushay said:
Oooooof, no punches were pulled.

Is it really necessary, though? The instant piling on by others is even worse. We're discussing a console here....

Ushay · Jul 9, 2018

Burdmayn said:
The poll basically says it all. 2020 looks like the most realistic bet for both, but there's a sliver of a chance that PS5 hits in 2019 if Sony wants to be aggressive.

That makes sense to me, how much of a lead will they realistically cover (hardware wise) with 6 months difference? Real question is which of the big 2 wants to release first, and how badly.

BitsandBytes said:
Is it really necessary, though? The instant piling on by others is even worse. We're discussing a console here....

Hey I didn't laugh! (like many others did). Just calling it how it is. And yes, this is a speculation thread, exactly what was on my mind reading that comment from Jason.

Thorrgal · Jul 9, 2018

BitsandBytes said:
Is it really necessary, though? The instant piling on by others is even worse. We're discussing a console here....

Burdmayn said:
I leave the thread for the weekend and find that we're really grasping at straws... Yikes guys. Speculation is one thing, but trying to will information into existence based on things that aren't discussed is lunacy.

Getting back on topic, I know the tech-savvy folks here have discussed AMD's new tech for ages now, but... just for the sake of conversation, is there any other vendor that could supply CPU/graphics hardware for next-gen consoles? If there's even a vague possibility, who would it be and what kind of tech would they have reasonably available?

This is a speculation thread though, so I for one welcome all ideas, even if they sound like lunacy to others

Bunkles · Jul 9, 2018

Ushay said:
That makes sense to me, how much of a lead will they realistically cover (hardware wise) with 6 months difference? Real question is which of the big 2 wants to release first, and how badly.

I dunno if first to market will matter as much next gen as long as the spread isn't too long. I really hope Sony doesn't rush PS5 out before it's ready.

BitsandBytes · Jul 9, 2018

Ushay said:
OT - What's the current sentiment on releases? PS5 2019 or 2020? Xbox is most likely 2020.

Right now (subject to change) I think PS5 Nov/Dec 2019 Scarlet Nov/Dec 2020.

They both could release late 2019 or late 2020.

Deleted member 34239 · Jul 9, 2018

jschreier said:
This is horseshit.

Overly excessive and not at all necessary.

Deleted member 5764 · Jul 9, 2018

Thorrgal said:
This is a speculation thread though, so I for one welcome all ideas, even if they sound like lunacy to others

I'm down for ideas, but I like to stray away from "lunacy". I just think it seems unhealthy to dive down crazy conspiracy theory rabbit holes. It's better to deal with known quantities rather than the space between IMO.

Interfectum said:
I dunno if first to market will matter as much next gen as long as the spread isn't too long. I really hope Sony doesn't rush PS5 out before it's ready.

Ushay said:
That makes sense to me, how much of a lead will they realistically cover (hardware wise) with 6 months difference? Real question is which of the big 2 wants to release first, and how badly.

Hey I didn't laugh! (like many others did). Just calling it how it is. And yes, this is a speculation thread, exactly what was on my mind reading that comment from Jason.

My thoughts on Sony launching first have always been focused on retaining customers rather than gaining a "lead" on the competition. Technically the two go hand-in-hand, but I could just see Sony having a primary goal of converting all their PS4 customers to PS5. That's easier when your hardcore consumers don't have another purchasing option for 6-12 months.

BitsandBytes · Jul 9, 2018

Ushay said:
Hey I didn't laugh! (like many others did). Just calling it how it is. And yes, this is a speculation thread, exactly what was on my mind reading that comment from Jason.

Sorry..... I only used your post so I didn't have to quote any of the others.

OnPorpoise · Jul 9, 2018

ogo.on.the.go said:
Overly excessive and not necessary at all.

Calling another poster misinformed and then backing it up with a conspiracy theory is the very definition of "horseshit".

It's not a personal attack, it's an accurate description of the quality of that specific post.

Thorrgal · Jul 9, 2018

Ushay said:
Oooooof, no punches were pulled.

OT - What's the current sentiment on releases? PS5 2019 or 2020? Xbox is most likely 2020.

I think almost all expect Xbox in 2020 , and regarding PS5 most expect it in 2020, and some in 2019.

In my case I think PS5 is probably 2020, but 2019 wouldn't shock me

Thorrgal · Jul 9, 2018

Burdmayn said:
I'm down for ideas, but I like to stray away from "lunacy". I just think it seems unhealthy to dive down crazy conspiracy theory rabbit holes. It's better to deal with known quantities rather than the space between IMO.

My thoughts on Sony launching first have always been focused on retaining customers rather than gaining a "lead" on the competition. Technically the two go hand-in-hand, but I could just see Sony having a primary goal of converting all their PS4 customers to PS5. That's easier when your hardcore consumers don't have another purchasing option for 6-12 months.

Except Xeontech posts I haven't seen much (any?) lunacy here though.

anexanhume · Jul 9, 2018

Miniature Kaiju said:
TSMC's 5nm might, and I reiterate, might be ready for mass production in 2021, but it won't bring a jump in perf anywhere large enough to give you this kind of perf in a resonable footprint, by their estimates. The kind of stuff you want is 2022, 2023 and beyond, at best.

They actually said they'd be in volume in 2020 last month. If someone played it super safe and did DUV 7nm while the other did 5nm EUV, we could be talking about tangible performance differences iso power or iso die area.

anexanhume said:
TSMC 7nm is going well, and apparently 5nm will already hit risk early next year with volume in 2020. If 5nm is looking that good, EUV for 7nm+ must be doing fantastic. Grain of salt and all that, but this is all very bullish, and TSMC has good a track record as any lately.

https://reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/8suiek/tsmc_10nm7nm_capacity_to_increase_by_3_times_next/

ogo.on.the.go said:
Overly excessive and not at all necessary.

He questioned someone's professional integrity. Don't be so flippant about things when people actually have something at stake when they make a claim.

Xeontech · Jul 9, 2018

jschreier said:
This is horseshit.

Care to elaborate? I know you were pretty adamant about 2019 being too early, but more recently you seem on the fence about it.

Something else interesting I came across today.

https://wccftech.com/infinity-ward-call-of-duty-2019-ps5-xbox/

Infinity Ward's upcoming Call of Duty 2019 installment is allegedly in development for multiple next-gen platforms.

Thorrgal · Jul 9, 2018

Xeontech said:
Care to elaborate? I know you were pretty adamant about 2019 being too early, but more recently you seem on the fence about it.

Something else interesting I came across today.

https://wccftech.com/infinity-ward-call-of-duty-2019-ps5-xbox/

This has been already discussed in this thread

PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

When will the first 'next gen' console arrive?

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H2 2020

H1 2021

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