Now that both have confirmed systems coming next gen, and rumblings of similar power are afoot thanks to hardware info teases, what do the current states of these brands yield if they launch as rumored in late 2020, potentially now at the same price (since Lockhart is dead and Xbox has shifted focus to Scarlett as the sole mainstream offering)?
Let's look back a bit:
Outcome: Xbox makes a splash with its first console at almost a quarter million sold in about 5 years of life, while PS2 elevates its brand with massive sales of 155 million in about 12 years tracking its life.
Outcome: Despite sales disparity from the prior gen and despite Xbox 360 hardware issues in the original form factor, Xbox 360 took off particularly in the Americas jumping sales to 84 million in its lifetime worldwide. PlayStation 3 struggled over prices early on but later caught up to 360, eventually reaching about 87 million in reported lifetime sales, failing to dominate like PS2 but holding its own against Xbox's aggressive competition.
Outcome: Xbox 360's powerhouse wins in the USA weren't matched by Xbox One, with sales only able to be estimated due to Microsoft no longer reporting unit sales in favor of engagement. Latest analysis suggested Xbox One has passed 41 million units sold, while PlayStation 4 has reported about 92 million sold.
Next gen, 2020:
We got our first look beyond rumors when Mark Cerny of Sony's team gave an exclusive interview to Wired:
www.resetera.com
Then we got the announcement of one new Xbox for 2020, rather than long rumored two models, as Project Scarlett at E3 2019:
For the first time, we expect very closely powered consoles in possibly the same year and price point.
For me:
I am a graphics fanatic in console space. I had PS4 and Xbox One originals, then got PS4 Pro at launch to replace PS4, then got Xbox One X to replace base XB1. My current strategy is to buy every Multiplatform game on X since they are better there, like Red Dead 2 and future titles like Cyberpunk 2077, while using Game Pass to catch some other titles and exclusives. Now my PS4 Pro is strictly for exclusives, which I consider can't-miss on PS4 - the library is stellar. But what happens next gen?
I want the more powerful console first - and it now seems we don't know which will edge the other out. If it's Scarlett, my strategy stands and I continue on to next gen starting with Xbox but adding PS5 and I'm good. But if Xbox is weaker, that's tricky. I don't consider it to have many must-play exclusives, and if I'm not using it for multi-platform... well it's tougher to enjoy. Regardless, I will own both systems eventually. It's a matter of which comes first and becomes primary for Multiplatform that I worry about.
TLDR:
So the question is, what will the evolutions of these brands over this gen mean to the mainstream if the systems launch at the same price and season? Will a power disadvantage a la KINECT/resolution-gate matter ever again (it seemed to be big on forums when the gen launched, and not so big when Xbox One X and PS4 Pro started competing and the more popular ecosystem was losing the face-offs)? Is it about the games they show for launch? Are you just happier with one ecosystem and will go to it next gen? Is it about which comes first? Will you buy both?
Let's look back a bit:
- 2000: PlayStation 2 launches for $299
- 2001: The original Xbox launches for $299
Outcome: Xbox makes a splash with its first console at almost a quarter million sold in about 5 years of life, while PS2 elevates its brand with massive sales of 155 million in about 12 years tracking its life.
- 2005: Xbox 360 launches for $399 with 20GB hard drive, $299 Core model without extra storage
- 2006: PlayStation 3 launches for $599 at 60GB, $499 for 20GB
Outcome: Despite sales disparity from the prior gen and despite Xbox 360 hardware issues in the original form factor, Xbox 360 took off particularly in the Americas jumping sales to 84 million in its lifetime worldwide. PlayStation 3 struggled over prices early on but later caught up to 360, eventually reaching about 87 million in reported lifetime sales, failing to dominate like PS2 but holding its own against Xbox's aggressive competition.
- 2013: BOTH PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are launched, at $399 and $499 respectively. With a catch: Xbox One is seen as botching its pitch by focusing on media apps, and changes much of its software restrictions that were putting digital ownership in focus.
Outcome: Xbox 360's powerhouse wins in the USA weren't matched by Xbox One, with sales only able to be estimated due to Microsoft no longer reporting unit sales in favor of engagement. Latest analysis suggested Xbox One has passed 41 million units sold, while PlayStation 4 has reported about 92 million sold.
This outcome is more complex, because we saw Xbox One start quite lower than original expectations for them. This, however, has let them glow as the 'most-improved' gaming ecosystem of this era. They spear-headed wide backwards compatibility of games players already own (and promise it will all work on next gen), added services like EA Access and Game Pass as options for players, have played nice with devs in cross-platform play and Nintendo on Switch, accessories added like the Xbox Accessibility Controller and Elite Controller, allowed new GamerTag features like Discord-style tags for more name availability on top of existing name changes, denounced bullying and bigotry on Xbox Live, a generous digital refund system, and adding Xbox One X - the most powerful console. So things definitely went a long way since 2013.
But we can't ignore PlayStation 4. It's dominant, for good reason. It started with a gaming focus and a lower price, has critical darling exclusives galore, offers the wonderful PSVR, plans on future backwards compatibility on top of great Remote Play streaming apps, and was for a long time a more powerful offering until Xbox One X came along. They don't look as friendly as they did next to the digital internet-check-in early gen Xbox anymore due to noted clashes with devs on cross-platform communication, poor response to refund requests (the policy has just changed for the better), no backwards compatibility for games you already bought last gen, no first party accessibility accessory, a poor and late approach on username changing, and refusal of services like EA Access in the past. But you can't deny they have improved in 2019, perhaps thanks to Xbox in part, and are poised to compete again next gen.
Next gen, 2020:
We got our first look beyond rumors when Mark Cerny of Sony's team gave an exclusive interview to Wired:
Official PlayStation Next-Gen plans (2020, Wired Exclusive Article) [ Ray Tracing, BC, SSD, & more]
Mark Cerny is once again the Lead System Architect. 8 core AMD 7nm Zen 2 based on third generation Ryzen. Ray-tracing support with custom AMD Navi GPU. Custom AMD unit for 3D Audio, also aided by ray-tracing, a big upgrade. Hot on the heels of Sony having acquired near-industry-standard...
www.resetera.com
Then we got the announcement of one new Xbox for 2020, rather than long rumored two models, as Project Scarlett at E3 2019:
For the first time, we expect very closely powered consoles in possibly the same year and price point.
For me:
I am a graphics fanatic in console space. I had PS4 and Xbox One originals, then got PS4 Pro at launch to replace PS4, then got Xbox One X to replace base XB1. My current strategy is to buy every Multiplatform game on X since they are better there, like Red Dead 2 and future titles like Cyberpunk 2077, while using Game Pass to catch some other titles and exclusives. Now my PS4 Pro is strictly for exclusives, which I consider can't-miss on PS4 - the library is stellar. But what happens next gen?
I want the more powerful console first - and it now seems we don't know which will edge the other out. If it's Scarlett, my strategy stands and I continue on to next gen starting with Xbox but adding PS5 and I'm good. But if Xbox is weaker, that's tricky. I don't consider it to have many must-play exclusives, and if I'm not using it for multi-platform... well it's tougher to enjoy. Regardless, I will own both systems eventually. It's a matter of which comes first and becomes primary for Multiplatform that I worry about.
TLDR:
So the question is, what will the evolutions of these brands over this gen mean to the mainstream if the systems launch at the same price and season? Will a power disadvantage a la KINECT/resolution-gate matter ever again (it seemed to be big on forums when the gen launched, and not so big when Xbox One X and PS4 Pro started competing and the more popular ecosystem was losing the face-offs)? Is it about the games they show for launch? Are you just happier with one ecosystem and will go to it next gen? Is it about which comes first? Will you buy both?
