Weak third hour of RAW notwithstanding, I fully expect NXT to beat AEW this week. Last time AJ Styles showed up without any advertisement or fanfare, and they came within a hair of winning. HHH unleashed a full-fledged invasion promo last night, and given what we know about how AEW watchers will switch to NXT but not vice versa, it does not bode well for AEW's chances tomorrow.
That being said, there's only so many times they can hype an invasion angle to pop a rating before the gimmick wears thin. Either that, or this is the beginning of the Vince/main roster takeover of NXT we've been fearing for so long.