I don't think we will see exclusive games. I expect the Lite model to have the same power as the OG Switch and this one being replaced by the Pro model, with games running better on the latter. That is you will be able to play Doom Eternal on both systems, only that in one it will play 540p/720p while the new model could reach 600p in handheld mode and 900p docked mode. So if you really care about Doom you will eventually get the Pro model. Some games could become quite unplayable on the Lite model but that wouldn't mind as the audience getting that model would not play these games.
My guess is we will have two Switch in the market at the end of the year:
- A 300 USD model with a small performance upgrade, wireless headphones support, becoming the next standard Switch.
- A 230 USD model with same performance as the current model, small features cut and sold without dock.
If you only care about Pokémon, Animal Crossing and casual games then Lite model is enough.