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$1MM right now and walk away, or flip a coin for the potential for either $100M or nothing?

  • I take the million bucks!

    Votes: 2,067 73.5%
  • I risk it and flip a coin!

    Votes: 569 20.2%
  • I take the million bucks, but I flip the coin afterward just to see what would have happened.

    Votes: 177 6.3%

  • Total voters
    2,813
Oct 27, 2017
3,669
The problem with comparing theoretical expected values as mathematical characteristics of distributions is that it's not the only measure to characterize a distribution. By choosing only one, you've made an choice that left a lot of info (variance) out of the picture.

"Means nothing" may be a bit hyperbolic but the point is that the expected value is not a singular objective measure by which we can claim that one choice is "correct". The result of comparing these distributions is entirely dependent on what you decide to measure (again, 1 mil choice is infinitely better if you measure by variance). And that's a purely personal subjective decision, not an objective mathematical one.

"Would you choose a higher expected value with high variance or a lower expected value with 0 variance?" is the question of the thread if we translated it into probability terms. "One option has higher expected value" is an implication, not an answer. Your answer is "the expected value is more important to me" which is totally fine, but that's not a "correct" answer, that's just your choice.


Yeah, for me the question boils down to if I'm ready to gamble a sum away. And I'm not gambling 1 mil. Also, a higher prize doesn't even matter that much, the decision would be the same for 1 bil and up. Lowering the guaranteed amount - that could change my mind, however.
Well first of all I don't agree that it leaves out a lot of info; the variance of a single coin flip is pretty trivially .25 which I don't agree is 'particularly high' nor does it need to be stated. I thought it was pretty clear that this was an aspect being considered given that I specifically drew attention to the fact that I one expected value is a 5000% increase over the other rather than simply being higher.

The italicised is incorrect; it actually explicitly is an objective measure which one can use to claim one is 'better'. Just as standard deviation is an objective measure one can use to claim one is correct. Just as one can use expected utility to claim one is correct. There is objectively a 'best' decision depending on the metric which you use to analyse the question; that doesn't mean it's universal or every metric is going to result in the same 'best' decision.

It's pretty obvious that what metric one uses to analyse the question is inherently going to be subjective and non-universal since the entire concept of some amount of money being life changing is subjective. I thought it was pretty redundant to explicitly specify 'for me' at the end of every sentence in my previous post in a topic which is inherently about an entirely subjective and personal aspect; I don't think I ever claimed it was an objective mathematical one (and attention was explicitly drawn to this through the use of emphatic quotes around correct).

Your comment here that it's a subjective question is something I absolutely agree with, however I strongly disagree with your previous claim that Expected Value only has utility in the context of multiple trials is simply wrong.
 
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Doomguy Fieri

Member
Nov 3, 2017
5,266
Million is nice but after taxes I no longer have a mortgage and my car is paid off and each kid has a fat 529, not much else. Good stuff, but I'll get those done eventually. I'm flipping the coin.
 

NekoNeko

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
18,447
i'd flip that coin.
1 million is great and would be awesome to have but it wouldn't change my life that much.
100 million and i and my family never have to work again and can do so many amazing things.
 

wideface

▲ Legend ▲
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,460
Hidamari Apartments
I already have almost 2 million in my bank account, so I'd flip the coin and try to help as many people as I can if I win.

Just kidding, I'm broke as fuck and my life is going nowhere. I'd take the million immediately.
 
Jul 7, 2021
3,076
With a million dollars I can finally afford a condo near where I live.... sure it'll be a two bedroom without a view, but I can dream, can't I?
 

Machine Law

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,106
I already have almost 2 million in my bank account, so I'd flip the coin and try to help as many people as I can if I win.

Just kidding, I'm broke as fuck and my life is going nowhere. I'd take the million immediately.

Lol you had me on the first half.

I'd try to sell the odds to a rich person like a poster on the first page said but if I can't I would take the 1 million.
 

Bing147

Member
Jun 13, 2018
3,694
I'd probably flip the coin. Ya, a million dollars would be a big deal, I could do a lot of great things with it, but it doesn't let me stop working or quit my job or anything like that. I'd be able to get a nicer house, nice cars, take some nice trips, but it doesn't fundamentally change my life. I have a comfortable life now. I'm far from rich, but I have enough money that I can mostly do the things I want to do. 100 million would let me quit my job and just be comfortable forever. It would let me do what I want with my life. That's worth the risk when the downside is continuing to be reasonably comfortable, albeit with a job I hate which I'd likely have to continue at anyway with the million.
 
Oct 25, 2017
14,650
One million is already enough to totally change my life. Due to my personal situation I have zero motivation to risk that for greed. With intelligent handling and investment a sudden lump sum of one million could provide a lifetime of additional comfort. I'm fully confident taking the million.
 

Deleted member 4614

Oct 25, 2017
6,345
I'm not really financially distressed. I could be in the future, but I think it'd be more fun to flip the coin.
 

Eila

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,941
I'd flip a coin, the odds are too good.
Yeah, 1 million would go a long way in my life, but with 100 million I would secure the life of many. many more people.
 

Farmboy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,149
Take the coin toss and sell it to some hedge fund bro for $45M or something

You joke, but my answer would actually be to sell 50% of the action to gamblers, sports betters and poker players at 250.000 per %. Might have to split it up in, say, 2.500 chunks to get it sold but those odds are too good to resist. You win, you keep 50 million and the other 50 million is divided amongst your happy backers. You lose, you still have 12.5 million.
 

LauraLaMer

Banned
Dec 5, 2021
1,170
You joke, but my answer would actually be to sell 50% of the action to gamblers, sports betters and poker players at 250.000 per %. Might have to split it up in, say, 2.500 chunks to get it sold but those odds are too good to resist. You win, you keep 50 million and the other 50 million is divided amongst your happy backers. You lose, you still have 12.5 million.

That's better than simply selling it to a billionaire.
 

Farmboy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,149
That's better than simply selling it to a billionaire.

Yeah, you could probably sell a % for something a lot closer to its actual expected value (which is 500.000). Maybe 400.000 even, which would mean walking away with 20 million if you lose the flip. But at 250.000 they'd be snapped up in no time and an easy 12.5 million is made, while still retaining the chance at 50 million.

At 250.000 you could even sell only 4%, which means you keep one million if you lose the flip and still get to gamble for 96 million.

Just to illustrate that you should never take the million. ;)
 

Hale-XF11

Member
Dec 8, 2017
2,007
In other words, would you take a million bucks or flip a coin to see if you can keep it or not? I'd take the million.
 

Clear

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,566
Connecticut
Would work with my friends to accept that whomever won would split the money. Get 4 people even if one person flips correctly you'll be better off.
 

Wollan

Mostly Positive
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,814
Norway but living in France
I would be debt free with a decent buffer remaining having taken the $1 million (I have a modern house, a new car and student loans). I would not risk losing out on that. Life would be gravy with only running costs (food, electricity, property taxes & insurance) to worry about.
 

Replicant

Attempted to circumvent a ban with an alt
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,380
MN
Chance is way too high to have the regret of losing an easy million dollars. I'm taking the million all day every day.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,837
1 million for sure. That would immediately change my life for the better. I'd get my own house, new car, invest the rest smart.

I'd still work my office job for a few years while the investments double, triple in value. Eventually I'd quit working full time and would just fix motorcycles or do carpentry or something fun/fulfilling part time, and focus on my hobbies and live below my means. My goal would then be cabin living and retiring from the hustle and bustle of modern society, basically.

Even if I worked my current office job for 10 years I still wouldn't have a million dollars lol. Taking the million is a no brainer if you're destined to make an average salary (less than 80k-100k nowadays if you live in a big city)

Flipping the coin isn't a horrible choice, but if you're not already living comfortably/rich, then you won't improve your life much if you lose the 50/50. I would be so disappointed if I lost that bet, I'd probably live a life of regret.
 
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SonicXtreme

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,713
y'all make it sound so easy to invest a million dollars without screwing it up. it's not that simple, and most ppl who would take it have even less understanding of how to handle it. even if you're being conservative nikkei type crashes happen (in many different market types, that's just an example). the house you paid off will come with tax bills, the safe value company you choose can still get tanked, the safe market index you choose can be in for a decade of pain and make you panic, your kids will rebel and want more than what you offer them, and ppl will try to screw you when they find out johnny poor is trying to live off dividends from a mil (which you won't be able to sustainably do unless you were previously well off anyway).

100m it doesn't even matter what you do with the money you're going to be set, flip the coin (ppl avoiding the question and talking about selling lotto shares are exactly the kind of loophole looking ppl who will be lurking around every corner and will try to screw you to make an easy $ from your milli btw).
 

Ada

Member
Nov 28, 2017
3,735
OP should change the poll options to heads, tales and take 1 million. Then in x days/hours flip a coin and post the result. See how many posters would have won.
 

Zombine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,231
1 million. I would buy a pleasant home in an area where the cost of living is good, and invest tf out of the rest.
 

Briareos

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,041
Maine
y'all make it sound so easy to invest a million dollars without screwing it up. it's not that simple, and most ppl who would take it have even less understanding of how to handle it.
I don't mean to be particularly rude but I think we can acknowledge most folks here do not understand how investment and retirement withdrawals work. Even 5% returns would be extremely bullish right now and over the long-term, you would aim more towards 3%, so you have to live extremely frugally or outside of contemporary Western COL.
100m it doesn't even matter what you do with the money you're going to be set, flip the coin (ppl avoiding the question and talking about selling lotto shares are exactly the kind of loophole looking ppl who will be lurking around every corner and will try to screw you to make an easy $ from your milli btw).
I'm sure we're all familiar with the reddit post (the lottery one) that shows how life-changing money like this almost inevitably destroys people who have not yet learned how to manage it over time on the climb up. The more interesting analysis is whether you are more or less likely to wreck your life if you go for the coin flip and win, vs taking the 1mm. I would take the 1mm for that and other reasons (I am functionally able to retire now but choose to continue to work, this would shore up that investment).
 

Handicapped Duck

▲ Legend ▲
Avenger
May 20, 2018
13,662
Ponds
0df42e3186f35ceb5e62d6d55549a26d_w200.gif

Edit: I just did a coin flip for tails and I won. Everyone in this thread gets 100,000.
 
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Ryuelli

Member
Oct 26, 2017
15,209
I already have almost 2 million in my bank account, so I'd flip the coin and try to help as many people as I can if I win.

Just kidding, I'm broke as fuck and my life is going nowhere. I'd take the million immediately.

I used to get paid more than 2 million a month.

KRW, not USD.
 

Cogg

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,156
A million easily. I legit couldn't live with myself if I lost that coin flip.
 

Vibed

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
1,506
$1 million is life changing for me, but I can't pass up an expected value of $50 million.
 

Arcana Wiz

Member
Oct 26, 2017
817
A miion dollars is like 4,5 million reais (Brszil) with that i could buy a nice house and car.

With the 3,5 million remaining, invest in a portfolio and have a return of at least 350 thousands anually, roughly 29 thousand monthly.

The monthly minimum wage here is 1200 reais, so its almost 25x minimum wage of income. More than enough to pay for mine and close family expenses.
 

StrangeADT

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,057
1 million is more money that I'll likely make in a lifetime, and almost certainly enough to set me up comfortably for the rest of my life.

Trying to risk it makes no sense.
Cmon now. A million is a lot but let's not overstate it. Assuming you live in a developed society and you stay gainfully employed the whole time, you're basically guaranteed to make at least a million based on common minimum wages.

I'd still take the million cause then we wouldn't have a mortgage and would have a nice chunk to invest.
 
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RomanticHeroX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,886
Cmon now. A million is a lot but let's not overstate it. Assuming you live in a developed society and you stay gainfully employed the whole time, you're basically guaranteed to make at least a million based on common minimum wages.
Full time minimum wage in the US would make a million in a little less than 70 years, assuming 40 hours per week every week with no interruptions. If minimum wage was raised across the board to $15, it would take a bit more than 30 years. I'm not shocked at the amount of people dismissing a million in here because, once again, Era is classist af, but it is an unimaginable windfall for many, many people.

I'm a teacher, with a Master's degree, and I would make a million in probably a bit under 20 years, given consistent annual salary increases. A million isn't enough to never work again (I like my job so I probably wouldn't anyway) but it would entirely change the trajectory of my life. I'd take it without hesitation.
 
Jul 12, 2022
234
People asking for means testing: *crickets*

People daring to have money: classist.

You should rethink your priorities and where your accusation should actually be directed at. There are quite a few people around the forums talking about how people should just learn how to live in a crappy system or how the system is otherwise OK yet I only see the classism comments in threads that mention finances, when finances are not how you distinguish class. Are the likes of you even leftists or is this just some odd attempt at misdirection? I don't know what your purpose is, but if you genuinely actually care: you're doing harm.
 

Firmus_Anguis

Member
Oct 30, 2017
6,117
One million, easy.

It's not completely life-changing, but it sure as hell eases things quite a bit. I'd pay off my parents house, my dad could live comfortably knowing he doesn't have to only rely on his pension etc.

I'd invest/save most of it, though.

As to the 100 million... It'd probably ruin my life, so 1 mil is a blessing in disguise, if you ask me.