Frozen 2 probably makes the billion on brand name alone.
If they manage to catch lightning in a bottle with one of the new songs, you may be looking at the new highest grossing animation ever made.
The original's fandom was built on FAR more than just the initial box office, and if they can get those people to turn out there's a real chance the sequel does better.
This saddens me that quality original work gets beaten by a not so good remake of an old franchise. I guess people just don't want to see good original work anymore, but rather something that's safe and familiar to them. The irony of Tarantino's movie being centralized around a time when people did care really drives it home. This is just my opinion of course.
It's incredibly rare for quality auteur work aimed at a select crowd to beat four-quadrant blockbusters, no matter what era you're talking about. OUATIH is doing remarkably well in its own right- comparing it to The Lion King doesn't actually tell us anything other than the fact that the Lion King's aiming for a much larger audience.