In the OP of this thread there's a primer for this weekend on fudging which I would like to dispute. Hopefully this is the appropriate thread to do so, if not let me know and I'll move my post to the appropriate thread or a new one.
The first claim being made is this.
Would you be shocked to learn that Disney is fudging the numbers for Endgame's final run as it closes to the the title of #1 grossing movie of all time?
Within the past two weeks, Endgame has lost roughly 25% of their overall theater count, which is a massive hit to any movie's box office numbers. Endgame, though, only reported a decrease that weekend of 32.5%, which for a movie, is practically unheard of.
It is argued that losing roughly 25% of the overall theater count should incur a massive hit to a movie's box office numbers, which makes Endgame's decrease of 32.5% practically unheard of. I did some research on Box Offfice Mojo and such a drop doesn't seem to be unheard of at all. In fact, the current #2 movie at the all-time box office, Avatar, recorded two very similar drops. Specifically:
Avatar domestic box office run
On the weekend of Mar 12-14, Avatar went from a theater count of 2163 to 1718, a decrease of roughly 20.1%. Despite that seemingly heavy drop, Avatar's box office numbers dropped only 19.6%. The ratio of theater decrease to box office decrease is almost 1:1.
Furthermore, on the very next weekend of Mar 19-21, Avatar's theater count dropped from 1718 to 1236, a decrease of roughly 28%. A similar theater drop to Endgame's which in fact caused a very similar drop in box office revenue: 38.3%.
I don't know if those kinds of drops are limited to box office monsters like Endgame and Avatar, however it seems that they are not that uncommon. At the very least Endgame's competition recorded similar drops.
The second claim being made is this:
Additionally, Disney has been using the tactic of fudging the international numbers particularly heavy, going from 1.1M internationally one weekend to suddenly jumping to 5.0M weekend* the next weekend with no re-releases or countries added is a clear indicator that the numbers are this point for Endgame are no longer accurate. (*The method of this is slightly more complex and best left to others in the thread to break down.) This isn't to mention the 3M in additional international gross that was randomly found on a Monday after previously reporting a weekend gross of 1M.
Due to my interest in the box office performance of MCU films I've been following the flow of information on Endgame's run here as well as on Box Office Theory, a forum specializing in box office numbers. That forum has a number of people that follow and report box office numbers from various countries around the world, before the estimates and actuals are officially announced. The ones I've been following are verified users with a long history of accurate information.
Two weeks ago, it was reported on Box Office Theory that Disney didn't update the international numbers with the actual results. There were a few million dollars from international markets that were verified but were never reported in the announced results. The amount of unreported money from just two countries alone was almost 7 million dollars, which would bring Endgame very close to the goal of beating Avatar's record. At the time it was hypothesized that Disney wasn't reporting the actual numbers in time in order to make the announcement of Endgame beating Avatar during SDCC, as it eventually happened.
Based on that information, I believe that the only kind of tampering that someone can plausibly claim happened is that Disney withheld the true numbers from the re-release for a couple of weeks. Personally I see no indication that Disney pulled money out of thin air in order to beat Avatar's record. Also, if I have made any mistake in my calculations please point it out and I will correct it.