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Wkd Box Office - 12•7-9•18 - China loves Aquaman with $94M OW. Domestic box office is hibernating.

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kswiston

kswiston

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Oct 24, 2017
3,693
Seeya said:
LEGO did 470m with rave reviews and was enough to make WB go full steam ahead with three (three!) more movies.

Animation houses are specialized and generally draw different demos with different experiences, so you're not just going to be better off doing a live action with those resources. It's still a different stream that can avoid the pitfalls of fully saturating your liveaction slate.

Spider-verse is getting even better reviews and could do close to LEGO. People just have no frame of reference for these types of films beyond the same logic that had LEGO Batman's performance making people shocked. 'It's LEGO and Batman! 1B WW!' Or thinking that CG animated features should all be Disney level takes to be a success (because it's Soider-Man?). That's just not the case.

Not to mention that Disney CG films have like twice the budget and marketing costs of Spider-verse for those takes and ancillary.

Emphasis is being put on LEGO Batman here because, before people started getting crazy with predictions, it was generally thought that Spider-verse doing 400m was likely and good; Sony would be thrilled with 500m. It has also been (wrongly) a reference point to the numbers for Spider-verse that we've seen so far when that just doesn't track.

LEGO Batman didn't do that terribly overseas, 136m versus the franchise peak of 211m. Spider-verse starting in a similar place to the LEGO Franchise doesn't mean that they will necessarily recreate the same mistakes, like having LEGO Batman and Ninja in the same year.
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Animation in general gets a different audience, but Spider-verse is not getting the animation audience. Its audience breakdown is not much different than a regular superhero film. Which makes sense, given that it wasn't a film written to appeal to young children. Older children already go to MCU, DCEU, and other superhero films.

From past Deadline Articles:

Into the Spider-verse
As we mentioned previously, exit demos for Spider-Verse were 67% non-families, with men 25+ repping 41% of moviegoers, followed by men under 25 at 26%. Both enjoyed the movie with men under 25 giving it 96% and men over 25 a 91% positive score. Boys under 12 outnumbered girls 70% to 30% in turnout. Diversity demos were 43% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 16% African American and 15% Asian. Friday's number for Spider-Verse includes last weekend's money from paid sneaks.
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Spider-man Homecoming
There was always the notion that this Spider-Man would skew younger and ComScore/Screen Engine's PostTrak supports that showing 43% under 18 in updated audience polls. Since Friday, the under 25 crowd swelled with females moving from 18% to 22%, the third best demo for Homecoming after guys under 25 (35%), men over 25 (24%) and ahead of women 25+ (19%).

...

Forty-nine percent of Homecoming's audience was Caucasian, 24% Hispanic, 13% African American while 10% were Asian.
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I can't find family stats for Homecoming, but there were more young people going to that than Spider-verse by percentage.

Either way, I don't think that Spider-verse is hitting an audience missed by the live action films, and it is going to miss most of the overseas audience because Asia and a few other places don't find animated heroes as compelling. The live action superhero slate isn't so busy that you couldn't cram 1-2 more on a year. So again, the animated films are going to have to justify their existence. At least in the case of Spider-verse, the film is going to be SPA's first real taste at critical acclaim and possible awards season trophies. That shouldn't matter that much, but Hollywood still likes its awards. I think that the domestic take will end up justifying the sequel anyhow, even if overseas is sub 200M, but if it was borderline, the acclaim will probably help.

As for Lego Batman, 136M overseas is pretty poor. The fact that the original Lego Movie didn't do that well overseas doesn't change things. Those overseas grosses are comparable to what you would expect from an animated film that earned $50-100M domestic. Ferdinand made $211M overseas.
 
berzeli

berzeli

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,384
If Spider-Verse wins any major awards it will get a sequel, SPA has won almost as many Razzies (all for the Emoji movie) as they have won other awards (4 to 5 if my quick look at it was right). So it has that going for it at least.
 
dennett316

dennett316

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,982
Blackpool, UK
Saw Bumblebee, Spider-Man and Aquaman today...what an enjoyable day at the cinema. For me the weakest was probably Bumblebee, and that was still a fun watch. I do wish that these film makers would get that the Transformers don't need to be the backing singers in their own movie. This could've been set entirely on Cybertron and focused on the Transformers as characters.
Aquaman was enjoyable. A little cheesy in parts, but Momoa is charismatic and likeable and easily carries it through. Lots of CGI, but it mostly seemed of high quality to me, nowhere near as ropey-looking as Wonder Woman's CGI got. That's more like it DC, though
Black Manta
was a bit lame.
Into the Spider-Verse was top class, just a damn good movie. Gorgeous to look at, inventive, charming, well written, it deserves to make mega-bucks. Easily the best of the three films today. Can't wait to grab the 4K blu ray of this, it'll look awesome.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
kswiston said:
Animation in general gets a different audience, but Spider-verse is not getting the animation audience. Its audience breakdown is not much different than a regular superhero film. Which makes sense, given that it wasn't a film written to appeal to young children. Older children already go to MCU, DCEU, and other superhero films.

From past Deadline Articles:

Into the Spider-verse



Spider-man Homecoming


I can't find family stats for Homecoming, but there were more young people going to that than Spider-verse by percentage.

Either way, I don't think that Spider-verse is hitting an audience missed by the live action films, and it is going to miss most of the overseas audience because Asia and a few other places don't find animated heroes as compelling. The live action superhero slate isn't so busy that you couldn't cram 1-2 more on a year. So again, the animated films are going to have to justify their existence. At least in the case of Spider-verse, the film is going to be SPA's first real taste at critical acclaim and possible awards season trophies. That shouldn't matter that much, but Hollywood still likes its awards. I think that the domestic take will end up justifying the sequel anyhow, even if overseas is sub 200M, but if it was borderline, the acclaim will probably help.

As for Lego Batman, 136M overseas is pretty poor. The fact that the original Lego Movie didn't do that well overseas doesn't change things. Those overseas grosses are comparable to what you would expect from an animated film that earned $50-100M domestic. Ferdinand made $211M overseas.
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Right but I don't believe that those demos will hold once we get into holidays. I'm not surprised that it is currently mostly attracting the slightly older comic demo given the subject, but school being out will soon show itself with rave WOM helping to attract a broader group makeup.

I agree with you about the LEGO movies being traditionally weaker OS, but that furthers my point that these numbers are fine for Spider-verse. LEGO got green lit for more with a 55/45 split. Like you said, LEGO Batman did well enough to maybe get a sequel, and it cost only 10m less than Spider-verse, sub 400m. Focus is on Batman not because Spider-verse will only match it, but because it's looking like it will beat it clearly with the OW DOM looking to be 35-40+ m over the holidays, not a FEB release.

You brought up Ferdinand. Did 13/84 DOM. Skewed younger thanverse upfront to be sure, and overall, but Spider-verse isn't not going to appeal to kids/families over the Christmas season. If Spider-verse opens +40m, it would be more surprising to miss 200m than cross it.

We shall see.
 
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Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,035
Can't speak to anywhere else but here in Australia Spider-Man hype is non existent. Not sure how it'll play out but I'd be surprised if it isn't an extreme disappointment.

Meanwhile bohemian rhapsody is about to pass JW2 and dead pool 2 to become the 4th highest grossing movie of the year. What a fucking incredible performance.
 
KuwabaraTheMan

KuwabaraTheMan

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,179
Preview screening for Aquaman here was packed (there was even a dude just standing for the whole movie near me), and the audience really got into (laughed at pretty much every joke, cheers at a few spots, and clapping at the end because this is America after all). I think this movie is going to have pretty strong WOM here.
 
broncobuster

broncobuster

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,139
KuwabaraTheMan said:
Preview screening for Aquaman here was packed (there was even a dude just standing for the whole movie near me), and the audience really got into (laughed at pretty much every joke, cheers at a few spots, and clapping at the end because this is America after all). I think this movie is going to have pretty strong WOM here.
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That was my experience as well. Usually I write some of that off for early screenings, but this was a paid one, so I dunno. It's a really entertaining time.
 
THEVOID

THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
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Oct 27, 2017
22,860
Man, I keep hearing Aquaman is so entraining. I'm going to have to check this out.
 
Callibretto

Callibretto

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Oct 25, 2017
9,492
Indonesia
Seeya said:
Remember that thread pre Venom where an era poster suggested that Marvel needed to act and ban Sony from making any Liveaction Spider-Man property based movies, but in exchange they would allow Sony to make Animated movies for the entire MCU? 'Everybody wins'?

Economic realities are more complicated, but let's all take a minute and remember that the budget for Venom was only 10m more than Spider-verse.
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You know what this mean? Venom in Spiderverse sequel. let's do multiple spider-men vs symbiotes
 
broncobuster

broncobuster

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Oct 26, 2017
8,139
THEVOID said:
Man, I keep hearing Aquaman is so entraining. I'm going to have to check this out.
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Entertaining is probably the best descriptor since "fun" became a no-no somehow.

At its core it's an adventure movie, like Indiana Jones or The Mummy '99, with shades of Star Wars, LOTR, and usual superhero stuff. What it's not is intellectually stimulating and gonna leave you with a new perspective in how mankind has mistreated the oceans.

ryutaro's mama said:
Ah shit.
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To play devils advocate on myself, it's still seeing something early. I really don't know where that falls in terms of a hype buff.
 
ryutaro's mama

ryutaro's mama

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Dec 12, 2017
9,686
broncobuster said:
Entertaining is probably the best descriptor since "fun" became a no-no somehow.

At its core it's an adventure movie, like Indiana Jones or The Mummy '99, with shades of Star Wars, LOTR, and usual superhero stuff. What it's not is intellectually stimulating and gonna leave you with a new perspective in how mankind has mistreated the oceans.
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Speaking of Star Wars, who wore entertaining better, Aquamang or Solo?
 
Detective Loki

Detective Loki

Banned
Nov 30, 2018
2,078
broncobuster said:
Entertaining is probably the best descriptor since "fun" became a no-no somehow.

At its core it's an adventure movie, like Indiana Jones or The Mummy '99, with shades of Star Wars, LOTR, and usual superhero stuff. What it's not is intellectually stimulating and gonna leave you with a new perspective in how mankind has mistreated the oceans.f.
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Doubt people were looking for that in a superhero film
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Fun got shit on by the same people who said that Venom would crash and burn in weekend 2, when people were describing the movie as fun.
 
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ContractHolder

ContractHolder

Jack of All Streams
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Oct 25, 2017
16,245
I just saw Spider-Verse.

If this movie doesn't pass $200 Million... If the sequel plans somehow fall through...

I will cry.
 
Nappuccino

Nappuccino

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
13,018
I'm indifferent about Aquaman, but I really hope Bumblebee and Into the Spiderverse do well. I want to see more movies like them.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Schlorgan said:
That's been my feeling.

People saying that Fiege is sweating Venoms success seem to have a real high expectation of Sony to not completely bungle a cinematic universe.
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I'm not sure why Feige would be sweating. Venom worked brilliantly in spite of itself and the hand it was dealt. As a reliable producer of films, and creating a sustainable cinematic universe, Sony Pictures still has a lot left to prove. Hopefully the fun of Venom becomes the mission statement that Sony adopts in persuing these films. Morbius should take itself lightly enough to have a good time wit the audience.

Hell, if they basically have Jared Letto channel Russel Brand satirizing Tony Stark they might be onto something. I'm kind of wondering how they'll handle it though. If they go the origin story route it will end up being very similar to Venom. They could have him already being Morbius, using radiation to keep his vampirism at bay (in the comics Spider-Mans radioactive blood does just that), with the whole thing being a big story about addiction.

Maybe they'll be adapting some midnight sons or Babylon society stuff and go straight up horror/supernatural?
 
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broncobuster

broncobuster

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Oct 26, 2017
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Detective Loki said:
Doubt people were looking for that in a superhero film
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You'd be surprised. There was a thread about if people would turn up to comic movies if they nixed the action sequences.

And I'd say something like Spiderverse is emotionally resonate and speaks to the nature of what it is to be a hero with strong dramatic moments mixed with the fun. Aquaman is closer to something like Thor Ragnarok where it leans further in the "let's have fun" direction.
 
Mr. Pointy

Mr. Pointy

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Oct 28, 2017
5,141
I got my ticket to Spider-Verse for tonight's last showing, unfortunately it's kind of dead. I really hope WOM and legs do favours for this film, but I worried Aquaman is just going to steal all of that.
 
berzeli

berzeli

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Oct 25, 2017
3,384
FTF said:
It's not hitting $200m domestic unfortunately so hopefully you mean ww :/
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ContractHolder said:
Everything is pain.
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FTF said:
A $40m ow with a 5x multiplier will be very tough. Strong wom will help though.
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As I keep saying; holiday season. Ferdinand had a 6x multiplier last year, Sing had a 7x multiplier the year before that.

The only worrying statistic is that the initial demographic breakdown was lacking families and big on men. If families don't turn out in the weeks to come 'Verse will miss $200M, but otherwise a $40+M OW is basically a lock for $200M in December, only one film has opened above $40M and missed $200M and that film is Tron Legacy (hi, BronsonLee funny how you ended up being tagged here) which was heavy on the nerds and not heavy on the family side of things.
 
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J_Viper

J_Viper

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Oct 25, 2017
25,725
THEVOID said:
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1544960063558.jpg
 
ClamBuster

ClamBuster

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Oct 27, 2017
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with the success of wonder woman, and the now success of aquaman; proving that the DCEU properties can have a place being both financially and creatively accepted... warner brothers really should fully announce, with commitment, man of steel 2, the flash, green lantern, and justice league 2. with a time line, and rough dates

this is all still salvageable, and we're all kind of interested again

(sorry i forgot about cyborg... just hulk him in another flick)
 
THEVOID

THEVOID

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Oct 27, 2017
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Give it to Wan. He's done wonders with his Conjuring universe and has a pulse on how to bring in audiences.
 
Penguin

Penguin

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Oct 25, 2017
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ClamBuster said:
with the success of wonder woman, and the now success of aquaman; proving that the DCEU properties can have a place being both financially and creatively accepted... warner brothers really should fully announce, with commitment, man of steel 2, the flash, green lantern, and justice league 2. with a time line, and rough dates

this is all still salvageable, and we're all kind of interested again

(sorry i forgot about cyborg... just hulk him in another flick)
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There's more downside to a slate than upside

I'd imagine they'll focus on the next two years
 
Sgt. Demblant

Sgt. Demblant

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Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,030
France
THEVOID said:
Figured as much. Same dude that turned down life-changing money to a Fast sequel to go back to conjuring.

Curious to see what he does next.
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Well he could still come back for Aquaman 2, who knows.

What's interesting -and this is not targeting you specifically, just a general observation- is that when people mention who they'd like to see be DC's Feige, they often mention directors: "give it all to Patty Jenkins or James Wan or James Gunn, etc." But Feige is not a director and I don't think overseeing the entire DCEU would play to their individual strengths at all. Maybe Wan would do an okay job because of his experience with the Conjuring films but that would eat too much of his time and affect his ability to direct other projects, which is probably why he's not interested.
 
Penguin

Penguin

The Mushroom Kingdom Knight
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Oct 25, 2017
6,218
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Sgt. Demblant said:
Well he could still come back for Aquaman 2, who knows.

What's interesting -and this is not targeting you specifically, just a general observation- is that when people mention who they'd like to see be DC's Feige, they often mention directors: "give it all to Patty Jenkins or James Wan or James Gunn, etc." But Feige is not a director and I don't think overseeing the entire DCEU would play to their individual strengths at all. Maybe Wan would do an okay job because of his experience with the Conjuring films but that would eat too much of his time and affect his ability to direct other projects, which is probably why he's not interested.
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Honestly should have given Geoff more time

He's behind Wonder Woman and Aquaman.

Helped with season 1 of Titans and The Flash
 
ReiGun

ReiGun

Member
Nov 15, 2017
1,723
ClamBuster said:
with the success of wonder woman, and the now success of aquaman; proving that the DCEU properties can have a place being both financially and creatively accepted... warner brothers really should fully announce, with commitment, man of steel 2, the flash, green lantern, and justice league 2. with a time line, and rough dates

this is all still salvageable, and we're all kind of interested again

(sorry i forgot about cyborg... just hulk him in another flick)
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The last thing they need to do is announce a slate that doesn't include any of the films we found out were in development this year I.e Blue Beetle, Supergirl, New Gods, and Plastic Man. That's part of the reason people don't trust them now when it comes to DC.
 
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