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Wkd Box Office - 12•7-9•18 - China loves Aquaman with $94M OW. Domestic box office is hibernating.
- Thread starter kswiston
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FWIW Spider-verse has a lot going for it and could still outperform that range Domestically.
It shouldn't be too hard to beat the paltry 136m LEGO Batman did internationally. XD
Man I still don't get how did Lego Batman fail internationally.
Aquaman in China is looking to be around 180 million after its second weekend. Can it top 300?
Are you counting Illumination? Cause most of their movies have.
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Probably not. The thought was that the super high user reviews would lead to amazing weekday holds, but that isn't happening. It is over 20M behind Venom and dropping. Venom had good holds, so I don't see where is gains the extra 45M over Venom going forward to hit 300M.
We will know more this weekend.
Edit: I was looking at the wrong day for Venom. Fixed the gap to the correct 20M
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DreamWorks have done it too
Hell, SPA had a $150m+ earner this year
Grinch has passed Mission Impossible domestically.
Why?
Why?
What are Spider-Verse's chances of beating Hotel Transylvania 3?
I'm going to see the Spiderman movie friday afternoon cause I want more animated movies on Spidey but I pretty much hate Spider-verse, I always found it stupid and always will, hope the movie is ok.
From what I've read the only thing it takes from the comic event is the name and the idea of multiple Spideys fighting together.
Right now things are in limbo a bit. It massively out performed similar bounces and drops that Venom did initially over the weekend.
But has dropped a bit harder since. It's a little unknown at the moment because it shouldn't be dropping this much during week days following traditional trajectories (even China's) but there has been some talk that cold weather is keeping some people home.
It stands a decent chance of beating Venoms 2nd weekend, as Aquaman will hold on to about 40% of its showings from OW versus the 33% Venom had.
It should also get a bit of a boost from Christmas and New Years. It's not impossible that it still reaches 300m but it needs to bounce big on the weekend and even then reaching said milestone is more likely out of reach than not.
Good, I really like the art style of the movie, hope it delivers, can't wait for friday.
Man, Holmes and Watson is just gonna get fucking railed isn't it? Very little marketing and the marketing that is there is aggressively awful. Almost impressive how little hype there is for it.
Right? You'd think it could be successful solely because it's the only comedy coming out around Christmas (unless you count Vice) and it stars a pair with a proven track record but then you see the trailer and you're like "Oof, I don't know". Almost feels like the studio is trying to bury it under the onslaught of other December releases.
Reviews have started trickling out for Eastwood's "The Mule" and they seem to be leaning in the positive.
boxoffice.com are cowards:
Their range for Spider-Verse is $30 – 45 million which is certainly a way to hedge your bets. And just to reiterate a $36M opening would be good, would be a full million above Sing that went on to make $270M. So pls don't freak out yet.
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Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $36,000,000 $36,000,000 NEW
The Mule $17,000,000 $17,000,000 NEW
The Grinch $10,900,000 $238,800,000 -28%
Ralph Breaks the Internet $10,000,000 $155,200,000 -38%
Mortal Engines $9,600,000 $9,600,000 NEWTheir range for Spider-Verse is $30 – 45 million which is certainly a way to hedge your bets. And just to reiterate a $36M opening would be good, would be a full million above Sing that went on to make $270M. So pls don't freak out yet.
Too bad Adam McKay didnt make it. Step Brothers and Talladega Nights two of my most watched comedies ever and easily his best flicks to date imo
Specifically:
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 45 million
PROS:
- Spider-Man remains one of the most reliable and popular comic book properties of all time.
- Wildly positive reviews (the film sits at 99 percent on Rotten Tomatoes currently) are driving even more enthusiasm for this unique animated take on the franchise.
- As the first high-profile title to hit theaters since Thanksgiving, the combination of minimal competition and all-ages appeal should drive healthy family business. Awareness and interest have been increasingly positive.
- Some pre-release tracking metrics have approached the levels of Hotel Transylvania 3 and The LEGO Batman Movie.
- Some immediacy is diminished by the fact that this is unrelated to Sony's live-action Spidey films, part of the bigger Marvel Cinematic Universe, and represents the character's fourth film to release in just over six years.
- With Christmas less than two weeks away, strong holding power in the weeks ahead is more likely than a big debut typically expected of superhero properties as some families may wait to check out the film until their holiday vacation officially begins. Existing competition from The Grinch and Ralph Breaks the Internet, while not at their peak, remains a factor as well.
Point of order on the first con. The after credits scene of Venom suggests strongly that the two films are a part of the same multiversal cluster.
Everyone needs to calibrate their expectations a bit for Spider-Verse. It COULD blow up, and tracking for it has certainly improved since Sony did operation 'get the word out', but not every film is going to be Venom big. ;)
Spider-Verse has a great hand to play with the WOM/Reviews/Christmas season. Animated films that aren't Disney don't tend to open all that high, but the Christmas season does wonders for films box office.
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Having read up on what inspired it, yeah it does. I think it will be one of those cases where the commercials doesn't really speak for the film. I am kinda of mad they are hiding why he was beaten, they should put that shit front and center. So there is nothing wrong with it
Pretty apt considering both seem to be hiding a lot under a goofy ass sci fi premise and marketing
Damn why you so mean, but I am sure it will get a lot of think pieces like Downsizing did
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I said the same thing on a discord a week or two back. I am expecting mediocre reviews and not a lot of audience interest. At least it wasn't $70M like Downsizing.
I mean, it should
It's Spidey, it's animated, it's the holidays
Might not get the breakout it deserves but I feel like $150-$200m is a safe enough bet
Man, what happened to Zemeckis? It is like once he went CGI with Polar Express and Beowulf it sucked his box office mojo out.
You know besides BTTF trilogy and Roger Rabbit I've never outright liked any of Zemeckis's movies. They're pretty good at best with some good moments sprinkled in, and a lot of that comes from the lead actor(s) doing the heavy lifting.
I'll call this one right now:
Aquaman WILL breakout in the USA. And yes, I'm talking BREAKOUT, meaning that it could at least rival Poppins or even top it. It's an insane masterpiece of spectacle cinema, and it might as well be my favorite DCEU film, and I gave Wonder Woman a perfect 10 score. It's interesting because while I don't think I can do the same for Aquaman and while the importance of Wonder Woman is obviously bigger, I just think there's importance and merit for this film to breakout.
Call me out on it later.
Aquaman WILL breakout in the USA. And yes, I'm talking BREAKOUT, meaning that it could at least rival Poppins or even top it. It's an insane masterpiece of spectacle cinema, and it might as well be my favorite DCEU film, and I gave Wonder Woman a perfect 10 score. It's interesting because while I don't think I can do the same for Aquaman and while the importance of Wonder Woman is obviously bigger, I just think there's importance and merit for this film to breakout.
Call me out on it later.
I expect moderate success for Aquaman, but nothing major. It will surely beat JL, but doubt it will match WW. There doesn't seem to be much hype at all for it, the family crowds are gonna go nuts for Poppins, Bumblebee is getting really high reviews, and so much other competition, all the DCEU negativity.... I don't see it exploding at this point.
If I'm wrong, yes. But give me 'em my bragging rights if I'm spot on. I think that in the long run, Aquaman will come out on top. Obviously worldwide but after watching it I think it has quite a great shot at doing the feat domestically as well.
Bumblebee is getting great reviews, but that doesn't seem to be translating into interest just yet. We'll see.
Poppins shall be interesting to watch, the reviews aren't as slam dunk as expected, but I can also see most people not caring that it's a retread of the original and just go with the good nature of it.
I dont think it's gonna be big, but good reviews does put some spotlight on Bee, and the marketing has been nuts for it. The point is all the competition and so many people going for a piece of the pie, they are gonna cannibalize each others takes.
I leaning closer and closer to the "everything will do fine, but nothing will do well" camp for this holiday season. Just feeling that everything is reviewing too well for something to be the runaway breakout. Which given my luck and accuracy history that means Mortal Engines is about to make 1.2 Billion.
There's a line in the commercials about how what happened to him was a "hate crime!" but that's as far as it goes. I don't know if the trailer elaborates on it or not.
Zemeckis is so weird. He used to be such a profoundly audience-pleasing filmmaker. I kinda loved Beowulf when I first saw it but I could tell that the entire theater was just not having it.
Its box-office prospects are pretty fascinating. It's doing well in China but I don't see it performing all that well in Europe. And America is a complete question mark for me. But I feel like anything above 600 million worldwide should be considered a success for that film considering the circumstances.
Well, it's pretty refreshing to see such enthusiasm about that film. I'll be seeing it next monday and I really look forward to it even though I'm keeping my expectations in check.
Its box-office prospects are pretty fascinating. It's doing well in China but I don't see it performing all that well in Europe. And America is a complete question mark for me. But I feel like anything above 600 million worldwide should be considered a success for that film considering the circumstances.
Aquaman is going to make at least $225M in China, and maybe more. Starting out with that, it would be very difficult to come in below $600M WW. I'd say $700M is the success threshold right now.
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