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Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
I don't see how that is feasible. Entgroup totals are often slightly inflated, and $854M would have required what they had in China over the past 7 days, plus $2M from the rest of the world. If the weekend was only $700k, Venom wasn't much over $1M from Mon-Sun outside of China. Domestic Mon-Thurs was less than 150k. At best, overseas was double that.

Last weekend, Venom was sitting at $845.5M. This weekend it's $851.2M. So, a $5.7M difference. We'd have expected $7.3-7.4M using the entgroup totals (6.3M in China since last Sunday) and the likely rest of world gross from this week. Engroup's USD total for Venom in China is almost $3M higher than what Gavin is reporting, so that might have something to do with it.

Going by entgroup s original numbers throughout the week. For instance it was at 869.25 on the Thursday (far from the only example throughout the week), and this is not the first time it was revived downwards. I have all of the original postings and the confusion comes when I don't catch the revisions and was mostly just tabulating dailies. It's > 855 going from last weekend and lost 4 million through downward revisions since last weekend. If entgroups numbers are often inflated as they do seem to be ill stop using them in my calculations and mostly wait on BOM/the numbers. It causes me headaches and obviously leads to some vacuous statements or positions but Gavin's often posts the original entgroup numbers so I made an assumption that they were mostly accurate.
 
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THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,841
Pretty wild Wan came out with Saw and then two bombs and now everything he touches is golden.
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
I feel like that there's enough baggage in this day and age with MJ that even if his estate dictated absolutely everything on what they could and couldn't show and gave us the most sanitized version of his life story imaginable, the public outcry for putting it into production might be strong enough to curtail it entirely, just on sheer principle. Queen and Freddie Mercury specifically never courted anywhere close to the same controversy over the years, and tossing in a more controversial act like NWA, there's nothing on their rap sheets like the child molestation claims that MJ could never shake off.

I agree. Though i wonder how a guns'n roses biopic would do
 

Chamber

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,279
Aquaman has a chance at a billy if they can get a similar breakout in the US, never would have seen that coming.
 

admataY

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,789
If this december ends up as a bloodbath for should-be-blockbusters , atleast domestically , do the studio learns a lesson about over-crowding release dates with big movies ? are they too proud to learn ?
 
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kswiston

kswiston

Member
Oct 24, 2017
3,693
Aquaman has a chance at a billy if they can get a similar breakout in the US, never would have seen that coming.

Aquaman will need to be strong everywhere for $1B.

I think that Europe is the biggest question mark. It should play well in most of Asia and in the Latin American countries that like Superheroes. It's not impossible if China continues to blow up though. Quite a few recent superhero films would have passed $1B worldwide with $300M in China instead of the usual $100Mish (or $0 in the case of Deadpool and Suicide Squad).
 

Slayven

Never read a comic in his life
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
93,045
Into the spiderverse will get the Slayven bump
If this december ends up as a bloodbath for should-be-blockbusters , atleast domestically , do the studio learns a lesson about over-crowding release dates with big movies ? are they too proud to learn ?
Funny if Battle ANgel comes off the smart one
 

FeliciaFelix

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,778
Man I really want to see Aquaman if only to keep up with the conversation. Anyway have my tickets for the 15 with an Amazon Prime only thing going on. It was almost sold out only the crap seats left.
 

Jlynn

Member
Nov 6, 2017
93
Aquaman will need to be strong everywhere for $1B.

I think that Europe is the biggest question mark. It should play well in most of Asia and in the Latin American countries that like Superheroes. It's not impossible if China continues to blow up though. Quite a few recent superhero films would have passed $1B worldwide with $300M in China instead of the usual $100Mish (or $0 in the case of Deadpool and Suicide Squad).


I thought Black Panther made $100M in China (Yes, Venom made more in China than BP).
 

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Nov 14, 2017
18,411
Nah, WB just needs to make good movies; like WW and Aquaman, first and foremost.

Yup. There are now enough data points to show that good or bad continuity isn't what really drives Box Office, it's whether the movie itself is "fun".

It's why Logan and Deadpool can do well even as Apocalypse craters. If you make a good Flash or Shazam movie no one will care if Batman shows up or not.
 
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kswiston

kswiston

Member
Oct 24, 2017
3,693
I thought Black Panther made $100M in China (Yes, Venom made more in China than BP).

Yes.

I just meant that, in the past 3 years, Deadpool, Deadpool 2, BvS, Wonder Woman, Suicide Squad, Thor Ragnarok, GotG2, and Spider-Man Homecoming would have all broken $1B worldwide if they had a $300M gross in China. In addition to BP which didn't need China at all for 1B.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Yes.

I just meant that, in the past 3 years, Deadpool, Deadpool 2, BvS, Wonder Woman, Suicide Squad, Thor Ragnarok, GotG2, and Spider-Man Homecoming would have all broken $1B worldwide if they had a $300M gross in China. In addition to BP which didn't need China at all for 1B.

I kind of wonder if Marvel will see similar bumps for their solo films or if, oddly, China will regard Avengers films as the main series and solo entries as spin offs, while still breaking down the doors to see other CBMs that aren't so oriented around a big team up event series? Quite the odd situation we might have.

How does China react moving forward. Funny thing is, they originally wanted Battle Angle in this spot, but it wasn't ready on time. They went with Aquaman more so because of DCs limited appeal in China (not wanting to overshadow the local market) and, well.... look what happened.
 
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Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
salvageable from its position as critically aclaimed and financially successfull ?

I honestly did not like either entry this far all that much so it's more of a personal statement as to narrative stuffs. As a capstone the third entry has a lot to make up for and a daunting task of tying it all together.

Maybe both though? IX could end up flat/under TLJ due to the foreign market and General StarWars fatigue. Not a great situation.
 
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kswiston

kswiston

Member
Oct 24, 2017
3,693
I kind of wonder if Marvel will see similar bumps for their solo films or if, oddly, China will regard Avengers films as the main series and solo entries as spin offs, while still breaking down the doors to see other CBMs that aren't so oriented around a big team up event series? Quite the odd situation we might have.

I wonder how China will react moving forward. Funny thing is, the originally wanted Battke Angle in this spot, but it wasn't ready on time. They went with Aquaman more so because of DCs limited appeal in China (not wanting to overshadow the local market) and, well....

It does seem a bit odd to get two solo films in a row that are so much bigger than anything prior, other than Infinity War. But it's hard to make any real projections.

I do wonder if Infinity War benefited from being so heavy on action and not as much a comedy as many MCU films are. The Aquaman trailers seem to point to that being the case there as well (Plus Wan's last film grossed almost $400M in China). But, it's not like any of the non-MCU films were doing better before either. Maybe Tencent figured out how to market these films to a wider audience since Wonder Woman.
 

admataY

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,789
Im not gonna open to debate TLJ quality as a movie because we as a society have suffered enough , But I do believe episode IX will be a crowd pleasing movie, less challenging and downbeat and likely shorter and more easily digestible then ep8 .
 
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Sandstar

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,739
So crap that is rewriting opening weekend records in China. So crap that it might be end up being only the 2nd highest grossing comic book movie in China.
TIL: making money means the movie's good. That's why all 5 Transformers movies are cinematic masterpieces of directing, acting and cinematography.
 
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kswiston

kswiston

Member
Oct 24, 2017
3,693
TIL: making money means the movie's good. That's why all 5 Transformers movies are cinematic masterpieces of directing, acting and cinematography.

Nothing is really pointing to Aquaman being crap yet though. So the hate is confusing.

I am not personally expecting a masterpiece, but am optimistic that it can at least be a fun 3 or so out of 5 star action spectacle. Which is good enough for holiday period.

DCEU deserved a lot of its kicks for how DC/WB handled the universe ramp up, but a scenario where all three of our remaining superhero studios are making healthy money is going to be best for fans of superhero movies. Even if you are mostly interested in one of the families of films.

If the DCEU can recover as a series of less connected solo films, and we get some fun films from DC heroes who aren't Batman or Superman, that would be good. RE Sony: I didn't think that Venom was all that great outside of an entertaining performance by Tom Hardy, but I'd be up for more if they can emulate the quality bumps of the Wolverine solo films.
 

The_hypocrite

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
2,953
Flyover State
I was more speaking worldwide, obviously it will destroy JL in China.
I hope it blows up and beats BvS too for maximum lol.
I'm sure WB will be devastated by it making them a lot of money. Even more than JL. The horrors. Kevin T and Hamada on suicide watch.
Venom turning out successful nearly broke Era

If Aquaman obtains similar success, we'll have to close this place down and move to Gamefaqs.
I would welcome less Marvel bootlicking.
Is Aquaman even good?
L O L
O
L

Go ask MovieBob on youtube. He has a 30 min video for you to watch.
 
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kswiston

kswiston

Member
Oct 24, 2017
3,693
Fantastic Beasts 2 update:

After 4 weekends, Fantastic Beasts 1 was sitting at $682M worldwide, compared to the current $569M for the sequel.

Fantastic Beasts 1's fourth worldwide weekend was $44.5M. It went on to make another $132M worldwide during the remainder of its run, whcih was just shy of 3x its fourth weekend gross.

Fantastic Beasts 2's fourth worldwide weekend was $28.8M. If it had the same legs as FB1 going forward, it would make another $85M going forward, for a final total of $654M.

However, it hasn't been holding as well as FB1 (this same calculation gave FB2 $673M last weekend), so breaking $650M seems unlikely.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
It does seem a bit odd to get two solo films in a row that are so much bigger than anything prior, other than Infinity War. But it's hard to make any real projections.

I do wonder if Infinity War benefited from being so heavy on action and not as much a comedy as many MCU films are. The Aquaman trailers seem to point to that being the case there as well (Plus Wan's last film grossed almost $400M in China). But, it's not like any of the non-MCU films were doing better before either. Maybe Tencent figured out how to market these films to a wider audience since Wonder Woman.

Good point about the action heavy nature of Aquaman/Infinity War. That would make sense but leave Venom the odd man out, and it's basically a comedy at that. It's possible that with the denial of suicide squad and Deadpool that it got a boost from being the first anti hero to make it over. Tencents marketing can also be a factor, but I do think that we're seeing a general leap in how popular the genre now is in China.

Sure we may not see Batman, or Captain Marvel post these numbers, but I think we'll see a new (much) higher baseline for the time being. Ant man 2 has great PS and certainly placed higher in China as it stands against other MCU films than it did in any other market.
 

berzeli

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,384
So last week I posed four utterly brilliant and relevant questions:
Can Vox Lux do an I, Tonya for NEON?
PTA says no.
Will the audience care for the Oscar re-expansion of that came out in August? (The Wife)
Kinda? $200K isn't bad. And it is more of a PR stunt than viable release strategy. Not sure how much more Sony could have hoped for. The increase of 20,875.2% is pretty fun though.
Is the general audience warming up to Lanthimos so that The Favorite can keep up its terrific PTAs even in another expansion?
Sort of. $15K PTA is nothing to sneer at, but I'm not sure just how general an audience it can find. Should easily end up being Lanthimos top earner though.
Why did no one tell me that The Rider has been playing since April and is still in theatres?
No but really You absolute fuckers, why didn't you tell me?

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Indie film time:
Mary Queen of Scots - A good OW PTA, doesn't looked poised for a breakout though.
Vox Lux - A PTA that I would have said was fine if this wasn't Oscar season and this wasn't a big swing. Should probably manage to do ok-ish if NEON are good with its release schedule + promotion
Ben is Back - Ok PTA, don't see it doing huge numbers.
Anna and the Apocalypse - didn't collapse, which is pretty much what you could have hoped for, somehow Scottish Christmas zombie musical films are considered "niche"
Maria By Callas - Over a million! It's kinda weird contrasting this with The Great Buster, you'd think a film about one of the medium's all time greats that has a bunch of big contemporary names would do better than the one about an opera singer (even if that opera singer is the all time great). But then again never underestimate the gays SPC does have a bigger platform than Cohen
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Assorted international numbers time (courtesy of Screendaily):
Bohemian Rhapsody soared past $400m thanks to a $29.2m session from 72 markets that propelled the running total to $423m and established the drama as the company's second best international performer of the year behind Deadpool 2.

The Freddie Mercury and Queen biopic continued to be in fine voice in South Korea as $5.5m resulted in a number two hold and pushed the tally to $54.3m after six weekends. Italy delivered $5.3m for $14m after two, Japan $4.5m for $38.9m after five, France $1.5m for $28.4m after six, Spain $1.4m for $21.3m after six, and Germany $1.3m for $21.1m after six. The UK produced $1.2m for $57.2m after seven, and Australia $1.2m for $25m after six.
Ralph Breaks The Internet added $18m from 30 material territories to propel the early haul to $117.3m and $258.2m worldwide. A strong start in Spain delivered $4.6m for the second biggest Disney Animation opening in history. The film held on to number one in the UK for the second consecutive weekend, where it has reached $9.4m. The lead market is China on $38.5m, followed by Mexico on $15.1m, then Russia on $12.1m.
Creed II grossed $5.2m from 31 for an early $23.2m, fired up by $2.1m in the UK for $8.9m, and $1.2m in Australia for $4.4m, both after two sessions. The next wave of key markets comes in early January.
Widows used $4.5m from 59 to climb to $26.9m. It opened in Germany in seventh place on $516,000, and Indonesia on $320,000 in fourth. France delivered the top hold on $781,000 for $2.4m after two weekends.
Mortal engines released? Where?
Fantasy adventure Mortal Engines ventured into its first 43 territories for a commendable $17.9m. The top market was Russia with a $4.1m number one bow, and next came South Korea on $1.6m for number five, Indonesia on $1.6m for number one, Taiwan on $1.1m or number two, and Australia on $964,00 for number four.
 

Caz

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,055
Canada
So crap that is rewriting opening weekend records in China. So crap that it might be end up being only the 2nd highest grossing comic book movie in China.
Bad movies make money all the time. See: Bay Transformers movies except Bumblebee*, basically every Dr. Seuss movie, most DCU films.

*According to the critical consensus; I have not seen Bumblebee.
 

Mr. Pointy

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,141
People sleeping on Aqua man. Ladies love Jason Momoa. It's got $800m-$1b in the tank.
 
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Busaiku

Teyvat Traveler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,415
It was my favorite movie this year, favorite Spider-Man movie ever, favorite superhero movie ever, and in my top 10 movies of all time.
I guarantee you I will be more sad.
 

Droyd

Member
Mar 1, 2018
584
Fantastic Beasts 2 update:

After 4 weekends, Fantastic Beasts 1 was sitting at $682M worldwide, compared to the current $569M for the sequel.

Fantastic Beasts 1's fourth worldwide weekend was $44.5M. It went on to make another $132M worldwide during the remainder of its run, whcih was just shy of 3x its fourth weekend gross.

Fantastic Beasts 2's fourth worldwide weekend was $28.8M. If it had the same legs as FB1 going forward, it would make another $85M going forward, for a final total of $654M.

However, it hasn't been holding as well as FB1 (this same calculation gave FB2 $673M last weekend), so breaking $650M seems unlikely.

It'll pull just over $600m, won't get close to $650m. Looking like $200m less than FB1, and that film had a lower budget. WB must be very disappointed.

I wonder how they'll change up the series going forward
 

KimiNewt

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,749
Spider verse had a pretty wide release here, so I find it strange it wasn't tracked in any way. I hope those numbers make it somewhere.

I've been seeing a few billboards, but none of my friends and coworkers even knew about it and they're all nerds. I'm scared.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Aquaman is currently running just ahead of Venom for aligned first Monday in China. Keep in mind that Venom started to out perform Infibity War by day 7. Aquaman could beat that.

If Spiderverse doesn't hit at least a $60 Million opening weekend, we're all failures.

I'm just going to say it: the marketing for Spider-verse has sucked ass. Sure the hardcore loves trailers focused only on Spider-people, but it has done everything in its power to convince the average person that it's a weightless skip-able lower tier CGI gimmick fest with no real core emotional beats. It doesn't even clearly present stakes to get invested in. What the average person is left with is a whole lot of zany and they probably think that the movie straight up invented a lot of spider-people for jokes for all they know of Spider-noire, Spider-ham, and Penny Parker. Heck they probably think that miles is 'black Spider-man' and Gwen is 'Girl Spider-Man' and the trailers have done absolutely nothing to convince anyone that there's more depth to it than that. (Aside from the first one with miles, but it has likely been long faded from memory)

Spider-verse will do strong within its bracket due to WOM, but I'm not expecting an actual breakout breakout. Of course seeing the movie myself may shift my opinion, but that's part of the problem I think: It's a bit too off normative to really draw in beyond the comic demo. People will hear that it's amazing but a lot of them won't be interested in seeing it regardless.

1.5 Solos high end:

considering the added marketing, reviews, and Christmas. That's still almost twice what Lego Batman did I'm just being very hard in the marketing for this movie for dropping the ball relative to what is apparently there.
 
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