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Wkd Box Office - 12•21-23•18 - X-mas 5-day updates: Aquaman $105M, Mary Poppins $41M, Bumblebee $34M, Spider-verse $25M

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jack_package_200

jack_package_200

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Oct 25, 2017
17,537
Back from seeing Mary Poppins Returns with my mom, thought it was wonderful.

Its not a perfect film but its incredibly charming an Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda carried the movie.

The "PLOT HOLES" crowd will hate it for a couple of leaps in logic and its understanding of the banking industry but those people are the worst so who cares what they think.
 
Firemind

Firemind

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,530
Seeya said:
A (sub 100m dom) film from 5 years ago that, in place of holding onto the past in all it's ugly specificity, argues it's better to give up those parts of yourself to be reinterpreted in service of a positive message, to be given to others, isn't going to have much of an effect on this film imo.

If anything the film appealed to MP/Disney stans for reinforcing the magic of Disney.
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What the hell are you talking about?

The narrative you're painting that Chinese critics feel 'threatened' by Spider-Man is laughable too.
 
thediamondage

thediamondage

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,247
Is Watson and Holmes any good? Was weird that it suddenly dropped on the 25th and had ZERO reviews on rotten tomatoes

planning on seeing Vice this week maybe, that feels like another movie that just snuck out without wanting anyone to notice
 
PhilosopherDirtBike

PhilosopherDirtBike

Member
Nov 1, 2017
3,201
thediamondage said:
Is Watson and Holmes any good? Was weird that it suddenly dropped on the 25th and had ZERO reviews on rotten tomatoes

planning on seeing Vice this week maybe, that feels like another movie that just snuck out without wanting anyone to notice
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I think you answered your own question. The studio wouldn't screen it for critics and released it on a day when almost all of them will be too busy to see it. Doesn't scream confidence.
 
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kswiston

kswiston

Member
Oct 24, 2017
3,693
thediamondage said:
Is Watson and Holmes any good? Was weird that it suddenly dropped on the 25th and had ZERO reviews on rotten tomatoes

planning on seeing Vice this week maybe, that feels like another movie that just snuck out without wanting anyone to notice
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Screenshot_20181225-210900_Chrome.jpg
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Firemind said:
What the hell are you talking about?

The narrative you're painting that Chinese critics feel 'threatened' by Spider-Man is laughable too.
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Oh wow.

Did you watch Saving Mr. Banks?

Like hodayathink said, I'm dismissing the idea that a 5 year old niche movie; (one that makes the case for the 'Disneyafication' of things at that) is going to noticeably hurt or help MPR.
Saving Mr Banks (released Dec 13th, 2013)
Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $83,301,580 70.7%+
Foreign: $34,566,404 29.3%=
Worldwide: $117,867,984

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=savingmrbanks.htm

As for the saying that I'm pushing a (false) narrative about a bias against Animation in China? Come at me bro:



I never said 'critics'. Spider-man was a short hand for the animated Spider-verse in this case... and you do know that moayana is a user review platform, correct? That the score being talked about is the user score?
 
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CommodoreKong

CommodoreKong

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Oct 25, 2017
7,695
Arc said:
Solo would have crushed this slot. Disney fucked up.
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It probably would have done better than the slot it got (especially if other studios delayed their movies because of Solo) but I think their was a lot of indifference to Solo by the casual audience that wouldn't have changed. International numbers probably would have still been pretty bad too.

Sulik2 said:
Its one of the few awful decisions Disney has made in a long time, tfa should have established that star wars is the new king of Christmas. Also go see spiderverse people, it's amazing.
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I think Ant-man and the Wasp probably should have been pushed back a bit too. I wonder if an early to mid Fall release would have been better for it.
 
Blader

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,606
jack_package_200 said:
Back from seeing Mary Poppins Returns with my mom, thought it was wonderful.

Its not a perfect film but its incredibly charming an Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda carried the movie.

The "PLOT HOLES" crowd will hate it for a couple of leaps in logic and its understanding of the banking industry but those people are the worst so who cares what they think.
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Waiting for the slowed gifs to break down why that's not how dancing inside porcelain pots actually works

CommodoreKong said:
It probably would have done better than the slot it got (especially if other studios delayed their movies because of Solo) but I think their was a lot of indifference to Solo by the casual audience that wouldn't have changed. International numbers probably would have still been pretty bad too.
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May or December, or hell Solo or no Solo, Disney definitely has a problem on their hands with Star Wars in China. The franchise is practically in free fall there and that's going to cut majorly into any future movie's gross.
 
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kswiston

kswiston

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Oct 24, 2017
3,693
Early Xmas Day projections from BoT:

Aquaman - $21.8M
Mary Poppins - $11.3M
Bumblebee - $8.8M
Spider-verse - $5.7M
 
mreddie

mreddie

Member
Oct 26, 2017
44,009
CommodoreKong said:
It probably would have done better than the slot it got (especially if other studios delayed their movies because of Solo) but I think their was a lot of indifference to Solo by the casual audience that wouldn't have changed. International numbers probably would have still been pretty bad too.



I think Ant-man and the Wasp probably should have been pushed back a bit too. I wonder if an early to mid Fall release would have been better for it.
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I think they thought August was too busy or too weak but now that the dust has settled, it seems the whole Solo-Nutcracker-Poppins thing has kinda backfired.
 
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kswiston

kswiston

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Oct 24, 2017
3,693
So now that we have a rough Xmas number to work with, my guesses:

Aquaman will end up a close to or over 200M by Sunday. Unless I am completely off base with this, and Aquaman suddenly craters this weekend, I don't see how it misses 300M domestic.

Mary Poppins is having pretty good holiday boosts, and should hit at least 95M by this Sunday. I'm thinking at least 175M domestic, with a shot at 200M is where things are looking.

Bumblebee is probably going to be around 70M after this weekend. It is going to pass 100M domestic. We will see if it can leg over The Last Knight to not be the lowest grossing film in the franchise domestically.

Spider-verse's number is the most disappointing of the bunch, but not really bad either. It will be very close to either side of 100M by Sunday. Lego Batman was $133M by its third weekend, so even with the rest of the holidays, I am not sure that Spider-verse can catch up at this point.
 
Prompto

Prompto

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Oct 25, 2017
3,982
Sucks to hear about Bumblebee and Spider-Verse. And looks like Mary Poppins really is going to be The Greatest Showman all over again.

And I did not honestly expect Aquaman to do so much better than Justice League. I get that it's critical reception/word of mouth is much better but still. I guess Batman and Superman were just too toxic by that point. Wonder if this means that Flash movie will finally happen
 
Chuck Noblet

Chuck Noblet

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Oct 27, 2017
2,090
thediamondage said:
Is Watson and Holmes any good? Was weird that it suddenly dropped on the 25th and had ZERO reviews on rotten tomatoes

planning on seeing Vice this week maybe, that feels like another movie that just snuck out without wanting anyone to notice
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Saw vice today. It's an interesting film. Overall I would say the big short did the "true story" movie idea much better. Tighter script and a more focused direction. Vice has some wonderful strong performances. Bale and Adams are great. The movie itself is a little meandering. some scenes really work and draw you in, but the movie as a whole didn't really coalesce for me.

For indie movies I generally recommend seeing them in theaters. Blockbusters tend to grab all the headlines and viewership (not that it's a bad thing). Vice to me felt ok to skip and watch at home. Not a bad movie mind you but it didn't draw me in like I expected it to. If you love watching any and all political flicks it might be worth the cinema prices. Don't skip the mid credits scene if ya do go.

I wasn't sure what to think when the mid credits scene started to play, but that new fast and furious movie looks lit.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
BronsonLee said:
Zero dollars
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I'm not convinced.

BB is newer and Spider-verse lagged BB by 0.3m Sat when SAT projections had a < 1m between the two.

Sunday was projected to be 5.5 SV and 6.1 BB. A difference of 600k, using a projected 6.2-6.3m Sat for Spider-verse which it clearly beat.

SV going 6.2-> 6.9 +600-700k
BB 7.1-> 7.2 +100k

Using the exact same SAT to SUN drop that BOM is predicting for SV would give SVs true Sunday 6.095m, essentially tying BB SUN of 6.1m.

What this number should tell us is that there is some crossover between the two, but BB leading by so much on Xmas indicates that a sizeable amount of people opted to see it for the first time then instead of seeing it throughout the weekend. This number in raw terms however is just a 2.1m lead.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade positions again in the near future, but a lot will depend on how those demographics go. This is still BB week 1 against week 2 Spider-verse.

The other possibility is that BB is having a mini breakout, but the alleged SAT actual barely budged from the projection, meanong that its FRI/SUN probably didn't see much movement either. A breakout seems unlikely.
 
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kswiston

kswiston

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Oct 24, 2017
3,693
Spider-verse didn't beat projections.

Rth said 6.9 on Saturday night, which is why I said 17-18M for the weekend. I ballparked a 15% drop on Sunday which would have been $17.5M if the Saturday was correct.

But it wasn't. We got 16.7M as the weekend estimate on Sun morning, with a 10% estimate for Sunday's drop. That was again revised slightly down to 16.6M on Monday.

Bumblebee has been ahead every day.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
kswiston said:
Spider-verse didn't beat projections.

Rth said 6.9 on Saturday night, which is why I said 17-18M for the weekend. I ballparked a 15% drop on Sunday which would have been $17.5M if the Saturday was correct.

But it wasn't. We got 16.7M as the weekend estimate on Sun morning, with a 10% estimate for Sunday's drop. That was again revised slightly down to 16.6M on Monday.

Bumblebee has been ahead every day.
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Had to double check the Sunday and fixed but we can see the 6.2 SAT ON BOM right now.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=animatedspider-man.htm

Were his numbers wrong then?
 
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Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
kswiston said:
That one was. The rest were pretty close. West coast Saturday shows weren't even done when that projection was made. It isn't going to be 100%.
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Well boourns that's more of a miss than I'm used to with his leaks. Still the sum total is smaller so any deviation is more noticeable. Saw all the others matching up (close enough seeing as the are approx) but SV still on estimated. I figured Sony was just lagging with data and didnt that we got a revised estimate disproving 6.9. MB.
 
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Seeya

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Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Kenzodielocke said:
Snyder has been revealing that he wanted to make some kind of DC Snyder trilogy with his movie. I don't know if WB knew that. He fucked up the whole fundation.

Thanks Nolan.
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Snyder's quotes about Batman still pisses me off.

And him not intending to build a foundation for a Marvel style cinematic universe, but instead do some weird wank off trilogy was pretty clear with how he set/kneecapped the potential of certain characters and just shotgunned pivotal story elements recklessly onto BvS/JL
 
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kswiston

kswiston

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Oct 24, 2017
3,693
Man of Steel was probably too early to have had a shot. Comic films make more on average now worldwide, and MoS was coming off of a lot of mediocre to bad Superman films.

Suicide Squad did amazingly. Not sure why anyone would have expected higher. if it got Aquaman's China gross (instead of $0 there), it would have broken $1B.

BvS should have been over $1B though. It made close to $425M worldwide in that first weekend. Interest was there. Until people saw it.
 
Kenzodielocke

Kenzodielocke

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Oct 25, 2017
12,840
I think a competent director could have gone backwards and it would have worked. It's not like we need an origin movie for all these characters, just some.
 
Titik

Titik

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Oct 25, 2017
7,490
How are the DC Cinematic uni gonna handle that Batman and Superman are going to be different people now? Maybe they will retire and rest up for a bit while the lesser known heroes take the lead in Justice league? I can dig that.
 
ReiGun

ReiGun

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Nov 15, 2017
1,723
carlsojo said:
What's next after Aquaman? Harley Quinn/Birds of Prey? I'm very curious how that will turn out. I've never heard of the director Cathy Yan.
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2019 - Shazam, Joker (Not in continuity with the other movies)
2020 - Birds of Prey, Wonder Woman 1984
2021 - The Flash

Titik said:
How are the DC Cinematic uni gonna handle that Batman and Superman are going to be different people now? Maybe they will retire and rest up for a bit while the lesser known heroes take the lead in Justice league? I can dig that.
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Batman is supposedly missing as part of the plot of BoP.

I doubt they even address the actor change, tbh.
 
broncobuster

broncobuster

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Oct 26, 2017
8,139
Titik said:
How are the DC Cinematic uni gonna handle that Batman and Superman are going to be different people now? Maybe they will retire and rest up for a bit while the lesser known heroes take the lead in Justice league? I can dig that.
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Batman solo movie is said to be set in the past, with a Bruce, and therefore actor, quite a bit younger.

As for current timeline Bruce that's been played by Affleck, we won't see him for some time. Superman also has no current plans, with or without Cavill in the role. WB was only planning some Supes cameos. Not a solo movie or even team up.

There won't be another Justice League for some time, either. Like, we might have a Wonder Woman trilogy and Aquaman 2 before a JL2.
 
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