DAAMMNNN $90M is serious money, even with the reduced split from Chinese theaters. Aquaman X The Meg is coming in 2022.
Slightly sub Venom numbers in China incoming, with the potential to go higher. China + the Christmas season could put 1 billion in play. We will have to see how it is received elsewhere.
Eh heard that enough for Spider-man and others won't get my hopes up.
But yeah my hope was it would break 500 million as to not be considered a failure by some, and that seems like an easy threshold to cross now without issue.
edit:okay so Era won't let me embed the image
https://i.imgur.com/qshHthC.png
Aquaman is truly dominating, and Venom is pretty much done for. Since Venom is facing some pretty harsh competition in Japan as well this weekend I wouldn't expect it to do that well there either.
And I guess we could do US numbers for Friday but they are 😴😴😴😴😴😴😴😴
I want to see domestic reviews before I get too crazy with domestic predictions, but I am pretty optimistic. I think that Aquaman is going to be the big action film pick for the holiday season. Whether that means 250M or 350M, we'll see.
Based on the way that it is blowing up, Aquaman should easily pass 200M in China. Possibly even closer to 250M with the holiday season approaching (not as big there as here, but still a boost).
If domestic is strong, and assuming that at least the rest of Asia follows suit in digging Aquaman, this could be the biggest film in the DCEU. Latin America loves DC, so I expect a strong performance there as well.
Aquaman is truly dominating, and Venom is pretty much done for. Since Venom is facing some pretty harsh competition in Japan as well this weekend I wouldn't expect it to do that well there either.
Ragnarok is going down this weekend. :p Don't forget that this threads BOM number for Venom (845) is from LAST weekend. Venom will be closer to 860m after this weekend.
And I guess we could do US numbers for Friday but they are 😴😴😴😴😴😴😴😴
Venom only made 1M worldwide outside of China last weekend. Worldwide total is just going to be whatever china did in the past 7 days, plus less than 2M for everywhere else.
Maybe 854M.
I feel like Fox goofed by not releasing the Favorite wider this week. There seems to be real interest in the film but its only playing in the major markets. This would have been a great time to get it out before the Christmas rush hits.
I mean, I want to see them both but am slightly more excited for Aquaman.
Wonder if Sony missed a trick by not going this weekend with spiderverse. Movie is already playing in select theaters this weekend. Is it easy to push a movie a week early closer to release? Like could Sony have decided two or three weeks ago to go wide this weekend?
The only trailer that played in front of my Spiderverse screening yesterday was A Dog's Way Home and my theater went nuts for it. It's such a strange trailer, I never would have expected the sequel to A Dog's Purpose to be Homeward Bound with The Littlest Hobo, and people were not happy when they showed the whole movie and spoiled the ending.
Also that dang dogs really dumb. How do you make it that far from chasing a squirrel?
:(I'm assuming Bumblebee advance screenings aren't going too hot, I got a ticket for 5 bucks in essentially IMAX
The only trailer that played in front of my Spiderverse screening yesterday was A Dog's Way Home and my theater went nuts for it. It's such a strange trailer, I never would have expected the sequel to A Dog's Purpose to be Homeward Bound with The Littlest Hobo, and people were not happy when they showed the whole movie and spoiled the ending.
Also that dang dogs really dumb. How do you make it that far from chasing a squirrel?
It's actually not a sequel to A Dog's Purpose, the sequel to that is A Dog's Journey and that's coming 4 months later from this movie.
I am going to be genuinely heartbroken when Bumblebee makes no money. That was by far the best transformers movie yet and I'd go so far as to say the first actually good one.
I am going to be genuinely heartbroken when Bumblebee makes no money. That was by far the best transformers movie yet and I'd go so far as to say the first actually good one.
Well, Bay does need to make one last movie to follow up on the cliffhanger from The Last Knight.Even as an optimistic person, the best I can hope for is for it to be profitable. Not a huge breakout success or anything. Just move the needle enough that they don't go "well fuck this. back to formula."
Well, Bay does need to make one last movie to follow up on the cliffhanger from The Last Knight.
I've seen that movie and have zero clue what that's referencing. Then again, I barely remember anything from it. I can list what I do:
That's about it.
- British Lady seeing some CGI thing crawl around Mark's abs
- Anthony Hopkins driving a sports car and making weird noises
- Bootleg C3PO and BB8 with random surrogate daughter because Mark's daughter from the last movie is gone
- Bootleg Stranger Things kids who don't have names disappearing from the movie
- Aspect ratio changing every cut
If you want to make a review thread you can.So Bumblebee reviews are hitting now. Should it get a review thread or should we just leave it be? Not sure if it's big enough or popular enough to warrant one.
Domestic grosses are about 6x more profitable per dollar than Chinese grosses. Legit ancillary markets barely exist in China.
Domestic grosses are about 6x more profitable per dollar than Chinese grosses. Legit ancillary markets barely exist in China.
So all that Chinese $ is just nice PR and little else for WB and, well, every other studio?
Which doesn't matter to most studios balance sheets when they're getting big paydays from China during the film's initial run. No studio that is aiming to hit it big with a tent pole is gnashing their teeth at having outstanding takes in China but not much of any auxiliary from said market.
In the mid-credit scene a woman, who I just found out was the main villain that somehow survived, tells some human how to kill Unicron.I've seen that movie and have zero clue what that's referencing. Then again, I barely remember anything from it. I can list what I do:
That's about it.
- British Lady seeing some CGI thing crawl around Mark's abs
- Anthony Hopkins driving a sports car and making weird noises
- Bootleg C3PO and BB8 with random surrogate daughter because Mark's daughter from the last movie is gone
- Bootleg Stranger Things kids who don't have names disappearing from the movie
- Aspect ratio changing every cut
Films are budgeted for ancillary revenue. Most don't break even in theatrical rentals alone. China is nice for headlines and box office mojo rankings, but even in a case like Venom, the difference to a films bottom line isn't huge. Venom made Sony about $40M grossing what it did in China vs a regular superhero gross there. Hitting 300M domestic instead of 213M would have made them over double that.
Of course, extra money is always good.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/how-hollywood-plans-extract-more-money-china-1000522Through the MPAA, the studios are understood to have urged the United States Trade Representative office to push hard for a higher share of their movies' ticket revenue in China. Under the last deal, Hollywood's allotted revenue share was upped from 13 percent to 25 percent — but the international average is approximately 40 percent.
"At this stage in China's development, there is no justifiable reason for why revenue share shouldn't match international norms," says one veteran U.S. executive.
Ant studio would be thrilled with these numbers and the lower profit margin is more than negated and worth it in the long run. Is a 25% take really so bad when you're pulling in massive numbers comparable or greater than your Donestic total? Of course not.
I am not mistaking the split. The 25% figure for China has been in effect since 2012. Films just make a lot more from the ancillary market over time than they do from box office, which puts a cap on how much China can help/save films, even if they hit huge numbers there.
Also, you edited in the final paragraph to your original post that kicked off this conversation after I initially replied.
I was replying to this:
I didn't see the part after it until just now.
Obviously studios are happy for a boost in China, but the overall revenue boost is not as big as the grosses suggest. Outside of a few exceptions, studios typically make more in the UK than China, even if Chinese grosses usually dwarf UK grosses for blockbusters.
Ancillary revenue is big in mature markets:
https://stephenfollows.com/how-a-cinemas-box-office-income-is-distributed/
There is another article out there that compares studio revenue for films by territory. It was written in 2014 or 2015, but I can't easily find it, and it's 1am.
Gonna have to go with... 900m for Aquaman, China is going to do... 275-300. Apparently this Is our entire reality in a nut shell
https://youtu.be/u3k7lykTWTk
I'm expecting this to be like one of those entries in a gaming franchise where they listened to the fans long after the brand has been wrecked.
We should all set one up. It would give me the opportunity to crush everyone. :)
Edit: Saturday numbers in China (Yuan)
Saturday Estimates
Aquaman 262m +66% OD 156.5m
CBMs usually bounce 35 - 40% on Saturday
ACF 19.8m/731m +91%
Ralph 7.7m 259m +460%
Einstein Einstein 5.5m/14.7m +44%
Venom 4.7m/1855m +126%
Adrift 2.4m / 6.23
Johnny English 3 2m / 167m +159%
Still don't think Aquaman will do that well domestically to get that #, it's going up against a lot. Mainly because Mary Poppins & Spider-Verse will be big domestically taking some of it's family friendly #'s.