DAAMMNNN $90M is serious money, even with the reduced split from Chinese theaters. Aquaman X The Meg is coming in 2022.
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Wkd Box Office - 11•30-12•2•18 - Ralph repeats #1 in slow weekend. Venom approaches $850M.
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DAAMMNNN $90M is serious money, even with the reduced split from Chinese theaters. Aquaman X The Meg is coming in 2022.
Slightly sub Venom numbers in China incoming, with the potential to go higher. China + the Christmas season could put 1 billion in play. We will have to see how it is received elsewhere.
Venom continues its trend out being x2 what Infinity War did during the same stretch. Earning 0.7m against 0.33m. Adrift has already lived up to its name in China. Venom could gain some showings.
Venom continues its trend out being x2 what Infinity War did during the same stretch. Earning 0.7m against 0.33m. Adrift has already lived up to its name in China. Venom could gain some showings.
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Eh heard that enough for Spider-man and others won't get my hopes up.
But yeah my hope was it would break 500 million as to not be considered a failure by some, and that seems like an easy threshold to cross now without issue.
I don't rrally have hopes attached to the number, but Venom sits closer to 900m. China and US alone will likely result in 400-500m. Aquaman will gross in a weekend close to what Homecoming did for its entire run.
Homecoming in China 118,888,328
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I want to see domestic reviews before I get too crazy with domestic predictions, but I am pretty optimistic. I think that Aquaman is going to be the big action film pick for the holiday season. Whether that means 250M or 350M, we'll see.
Based on the way that it is blowing up, Aquaman should easily pass 200M in China. Possibly even closer to 250M with the holiday season approaching (not as big there as here, but still a boost).
If domestic is strong, and assuming that at least the rest of Asia follows suit in digging Aquaman, this could be the biggest film in the DCEU. Latin America loves DC, so I expect a strong performance there as well.
Based on the way that it is blowing up, Aquaman should easily pass 200M in China. Possibly even closer to 250M with the holiday season approaching (not as big there as here, but still a boost).
If domestic is strong, and assuming that at least the rest of Asia follows suit in digging Aquaman, this could be the biggest film in the DCEU. Latin America loves DC, so I expect a strong performance there as well.
edit:okay so Era won't let me embed the image
https://i.imgur.com/qshHthC.png
Aquaman is truly dominating, and Venom is pretty much done for. Since Venom is facing some pretty harsh competition in Japan as well this weekend I wouldn't expect it to do that well there either.
And I guess we could do US numbers for Friday but they are 😴😴😴😴😴😴😴😴
You can see some of that Spider-verse excitement helping Venom a tad in the estimates as it did 100k during the last Friday and isprojevted for 80k. My model has 70k for this day so we will see where actuals land. Venom is set for 213m unless it stops playing after this weekend.
The thing that gets me is that reviews on China are around Venom level, and last I checked even slightly higher? It being moreof a spectacle film will also help bring people in. It may have opened smaller but especially with the holidays coming up? It could easily out do Venom in China. The difference between the openings is not terribly significant in the long run.
Ragnarok is going down this weekend. :p Don't forget that this threads BOM number for Venom (845) is from LAST weekend. Venom will be closer to 860m after this weekend. Venom should be able to do low 280m's in China throughout the next month.
Aquaman is truly dominating, and Venom is pretty much done for. Since Venom is facing some pretty harsh competition in Japan as well this weekend I wouldn't expect it to do that well there either.
Remember Venom got its extension and is doubling what Infinity War did after Fallen Kingdom hit it. Infinity War pulled 3-5m extra over a 3 week against Venom's 4 weeks. There's also the possibility of a minor Spider-verse bump. Venom will be quietly earning for a while to come. It's by no means dead, it just got bumped down a bracket (or three) in China.
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Venom only made 1M worldwide outside of China last weekend. Worldwide total is just going to be whatever china did in the past 7 days, plus less than 2M for everywhere else.
Maybe 854M.
And I guess we could do US numbers for Friday but they are 😴😴😴😴😴😴😴😴
I feel like Fox goofed by not releasing the Favorite wider this week. There seems to be real interest in the film but its only playing in the major markets. This would have been a great time to get it out before the Christmas rush hits.
For the amounts we are talking about, China should end up pulling in well over a million a day for Venom in the past 7 days though unless entgroup and everyone else end up disagreeing.
Edit: Ah looks like there were some adjustments downwards since last I checked ent, that makes what you said line up a bit better but I only shifts things slightly. It was still roughly 4.75m in China through Thursday. Putting Venom at 850.3m ish ignoring exchange rate fuckery. I do think we barely will see > 855m through the weekend if these numbers line up. China's weekend could be anything from 1.3m to 2m if it continues to double Infinity War.
Japan has some stronger competition but ROW minus China will have a stronger ratio of contribution given the shellacking it took in China, and Venom is looking to have a great hold this weekend, domestic.
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They may be hoping to keep it fresh through the holiday period in most markets. Next weekend should definitely be most tertiary cities though. SPC waited too long for Call Me By Your Name last year, hoping for the big oscar bump. But by then the frontrunner narrative had moved to other films, and their post oscar nomination grosses were fairly modest.
Wonder if Sony missed a trick by not going this weekend with spiderverse. Movie is already playing in select theaters this weekend. Is it easy to push a movie a week early closer to release? Like could Sony have decided two or three weeks ago to go wide this weekend?
I mean, I want to see them both but am slightly more excited for Aquaman.
Someone who wants to see Aquaman over Spider-Man? (I mean, seeing as one comes out a week after the other, one could see both if they had the chance.)
The only trailer that played in front of my Spiderverse screening yesterday was A Dog's Way Home and my theater went nuts for it. It's such a strange trailer, I never would have expected the sequel to A Dog's Purpose to be Homeward Bound with The Littlest Hobo, and people were not happy when they showed the whole movie and spoiled the ending.
Also that dang dogs really dumb. How do you make it that far from chasing a squirrel?
Also that dang dogs really dumb. How do you make it that far from chasing a squirrel?
Incredibly hard close to release. The marketing team would kill you. I don't think they've waited too long; apparently the movie will speak for itself. The biggest hurdle is still getting people to go see it no matter the quality. It's this weird beast stuck between many things, a bit of a hard sell.
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Dog movies are the weirdest genre of movie. They all look like the type of fake movie trailers attached to Tropic Thunder.
Looking at Aquamans midnights -> sat -> trend. I'm predicting that Aquamans Sunday will be > Venom. It will probably start beating Venom is dailies on Sunday, carried through to the rest of the week days. WOM caused close to a 70% bounce on Saturday.
Given momentum if I had to bet LT, Aquaman > Venom in China.
Given momentum if I had to bet LT, Aquaman > Venom in China.
It's actually not a sequel to A Dog's Purpose, the sequel to that is A Dog's Journey and that's coming 4 months later from this movie.
Gonna have to go with... 900m for Aquaman, China is going to do... 275-300. Apparently this Is our entire reality in a nut shell
https://youtu.be/u3k7lykTWTk
I'm expecting this to be like one of those entries in a gaming franchise where they listened to the fans long after the brand has been wrecked.
We should all set one up. It would give me the opportunity to crush everyone. :)
Edit: Saturday numbers in China (Yuan)
Saturday Estimates
Aquaman 262m +66% OD 156.5m
CBMs usually bounce 35 - 40% on Saturday
ACF 19.8m/731m +91%
Ralph 7.7m 259m +460%
Einstein Einstein 5.5m/14.7m +44%
Venom 4.7m/1855m +126%
Adrift 2.4m / 6.23
Johnny English 3 2m / 167m +159%
https://youtu.be/u3k7lykTWTk
I'm expecting this to be like one of those entries in a gaming franchise where they listened to the fans long after the brand has been wrecked.
We should all set one up. It would give me the opportunity to crush everyone. :)
Edit: Saturday numbers in China (Yuan)
Saturday Estimates
Aquaman 262m +66% OD 156.5m
CBMs usually bounce 35 - 40% on Saturday
ACF 19.8m/731m +91%
Ralph 7.7m 259m +460%
Einstein Einstein 5.5m/14.7m +44%
Venom 4.7m/1855m +126%
Adrift 2.4m / 6.23
Johnny English 3 2m / 167m +159%
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Thought it was fantastic. I'm on cloud 9 right now. I can't believe we have a great Transformers movie.
I'm just sad I have to wait 2 weeks to see it again :-(
Even as an optimistic person, the best I can hope for is for it to be profitable. Not a huge breakout success or anything. Just move the needle enough that they don't go "well fuck this. back to formula."
Well, Bay does need to make one last movie to follow up on the cliffhanger from The Last Knight.
I've seen that movie and have zero clue what that's referencing. Then again, I barely remember anything from it. I can list what I do:
- British Lady seeing some CGI thing crawl around Mark's abs
- Anthony Hopkins driving a sports car and making weird noises
- Bootleg C3PO and BB8 with random surrogate daughter because Mark's daughter from the last movie is gone
- Bootleg Stranger Things kids who don't have names disappearing from the movie
- Aspect ratio changing every cut
So Bumblebee reviews are hitting now. Should it get a review thread or should we just leave it be? Not sure if it's big enough or popular enough to warrant one.
Probably referring to the scene at the very very end with an Chinese actress who may be the Transformers' God or something. TLK is like if Bay directed Prometheus and Covenant at the same time.
Aquaman actuals for Saturday went up, and gained it a 68% bump. Sunday will be higher than Venom like I thought, and hell, if that underscore holds then Infinity Wars China gross may even be in play.
Aquaman Saturday Actual 264m 68.7% (biggest opening fri-sat bounce in CBM history in China).
Sunday is looking to only be down 14%, so about 227m Yuan. I was thinking about this the other day, but it seems like Infinity War ushered in a previously unparalleled appetite for super hero's in China. Even the ho hum and disappointing Antman 2 broke some records.
DC also has a massive future in China ahead of them. Everyone brings up how the Chinese takes for studios aren't as good, but this is exactly why there has been such a push into the Chinese Market. Ant studio would be thrilled with these numbers and the lower profit margin is more than negated and worth it in the long run. Is a 25% take really so bad when you're pulling in massive numbers comparable or greater than your Donestic total? Of course not.
Even if your movie did 200m in each region, that's fantastic and you're not going to turn down 50 million dollars in returns just because it's less than the returns in America. There are so many people in China that you can make crazy money, though it will be interesting to see how China approaches this moving forward, as they are a bit protectionist to their own film industry.
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So all that Chinese $ is just nice PR and little else for WB and, well, every other studio?
Which doesn't matter to most studios balance sheets when they're getting big paydays from China during the film's initial run. No studio that is aiming to hit it big with a tent pole is gnashing their teeth at having outstanding takes in China but not much of any auxiliary from said market.
Nah it matters a lot. Studios wouldn't chase China so hard otherwise. It is the fastest growing market in the world. Heck the only reason Warcraft came even remotely close to breaking even in the initial run was China. China was also a big reason that Transformers continued on in the way it did as other markets tumbled.
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Films are budgeted for ancillary revenue. Most don't break even in theatrical rentals alone. China is nice for headlines and box office mojo rankings, but even in a case like Venom, the difference to a films bottom line isn't huge. Venom made Sony about $40M grossing what it did in China vs a regular superhero gross there. Hitting 300M domestic instead of 213M would have made them over double that.
Of course, extra money is always good.
In the mid-credit scene a woman, who I just found out was the main villain that somehow survived, tells some human how to kill Unicron.
The statement on Venom and 1/6th as profitable is incorrect unless you have other info and I'd love to see it. I'm assuming that you're using the old rate of 13%, or I might be mistaken?
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/how-hollywood-plans-extract-more-money-china-1000522
Films have been budgeted for ancillary for years, yes. They've been budgeted that way since before the expansion (better term 'recently explosion'?) of the Chinese market. Now studios still budget for ancillary but are thrilled at the current and long term prospects of the Chinese markets adding to their net profits substantially.
The reason they chase the Chinese market (a fact) is because of its growth and population size, along with the potential for better percentage takes over time through new negotiations. China favours more imports over rate adjustments, we may see that change if CBMs keep doing this.
No offense meant, but I'm not sure what you're trying to argue really. No one is saying that China matches the foreign average of 40% or even our Domestic takes. If your argument is that the Chinese market isn't as profitable per dollar, no doubt, but to imply that studios are just chasing China for vanity and little else is quite the claim.
Re Your Venom example:
Even using 1/6th as the percentage of revenue sharing in China which I don't think is current (or are there 'hidden fees' that make 25% not accurate?), the fact remains that Venom didn't earn 300m Domestic, it earned 213m revenue and took in a 40m return from China off of 280m in Revenue (correct me if I'm wrong but I'm assuming you're using this figure to get close to 40m).
No studio in their right mind is turning that down. Especially when effects heavy movies that might review and perform poorly elsewhere can still blow up in China.
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I am not mistaking the split. The 25% figure for China has been in effect since 2012. Films just make a lot more from the ancillary market over time than they do from box office, which puts a cap on how much China can help/save films, even if they hit huge numbers there.
Also, you edited in the final paragraph to your original post that kicked off this conversation after I initially replied.
I was replying to this:
I didn't see the part after it until just now.
Obviously studios are happy for a boost in China, but the overall revenue boost is not as big as the grosses suggest. Outside of a few exceptions, studios typically make more in the UK than China, even if Chinese grosses usually dwarf UK grosses for blockbusters.
Ancillary revenue is big in mature markets:
https://stephenfollows.com/how-a-cinemas-box-office-income-is-distributed/
There is another article out there that compares studio revenue for films by territory. It was written in 2014 or 2015, but I can't easily find it, and it's 1am.
Also, you edited in the final paragraph to your original post that kicked off this conversation after I initially replied.
I was replying to this:
I didn't see the part after it until just now.
Obviously studios are happy for a boost in China, but the overall revenue boost is not as big as the grosses suggest. Outside of a few exceptions, studios typically make more in the UK than China, even if Chinese grosses usually dwarf UK grosses for blockbusters.
Ancillary revenue is big in mature markets:
https://stephenfollows.com/how-a-cinemas-box-office-income-is-distributed/
There is another article out there that compares studio revenue for films by territory. It was written in 2014 or 2015, but I can't easily find it, and it's 1am.
Funny you should quote that article, I was going over it last week. Again though, my point was speaking to the initial run, not ancillary channels and your comment made it sound like you were speaking to the initial run, not projecting out to include the ancillary as a part of that profitability comparative. That could just be me interpreting films gross as films (box office) gross, still your Venom example seems to be using 13% instead of 25%?
Anyway, my point stands and I stand by what you quoted! If I wasn't correct on this then we wouldn't see the push to China from Hollywood.
The added paragraph was, from my perspective, redundant to the point made in the one you quoted, aside from giving an example.
Even at these disadvantages the contributions it does make are not negligible now, and they will be even less that in time. One also has to consider the dwindling physical market and the rise of a la cart streaming services, and hyper conglomertization, that will abstract the relevance of per movie performance in the ancillary market over time but that's projecting out a bit further.
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I'll try to mark my edits a bit more to avoid confusions. I accidentally hit submit twice this evening. I keep getting some sort of a scrolling bug since the update.
Also I'm pretty sure we're both just tired and misunderstanding a lot seeing as I'm one time zone removed from you, and both of us should get to bed.
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Still don't think Aquaman will do that well domestically to get that #, it's going up against a lot. Mainly because Mary Poppins & Spider-Verse will be big domestically taking some of it's family friendly #'s.
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I'm just basing that on it doing roughly 100m less than Homecoming Dom 200m more China and 100m less ROW.... give it take some units of 50m here or there. Homecoming did 880m, but you could of course end up being right. I could be overestimating how Christmas will help carry it stateside.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=spiderman2017.htm
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