Wkd Box Office • 07/16-18/21 • Lebron Out-slams Jordan and Jams to the Top

PlatypusDude · Jul 18, 2021

As far as Black Widow International cume goes isn't it facing more theater closures and capacity restrictions compared to F9 due to delta surges? Obviously premier access is a factor as well, but that is definitely a big headwind that will make everything a moving target the next few months as pandemic switches to a non-one size fits all period (lot of gray in the coming months).

J_Viper · Jul 18, 2021

Schlorgan said:
Black Widow will outgross Space Jam in the end (by a lot) and the Black Widow budget wasn't that much more than Space Jam ($160m+ for Space Jam vs $200m for Black Widow).

What in the absolute fuck

Where did it go?

Kusagari · Jul 18, 2021

I think pretty much every blockbuster is going to be front loaded for the foreseeable future.

TorianElecdra · Jul 18, 2021

KtotheRoc said:
I said it in the last thread, and I'll say it again. I don't think the movie theater industry will be doing pre-pandemic numbers anytime soon. The way people are consuming media has changed. And it will continue to change.

Yeah, not soon enough if ever again...

Tavernade · Jul 18, 2021

I hope Space Jam continues to do well and they can get some sort of Looney Tunes sequel film out relatively quickly. I'd rather not have a repeat of all the original's sequels being cancelled and then enough time passing that they needed to do yet another reboot to get a film franchise out of it. And then that reboot failing.

Having grown up with the original film, and then watching it again recently, Space Jam 2 is better in pretty much every way (except for a lack of Bill Murray).

mreddie · Jul 18, 2021

J_Viper said:
What in the absolute fuck

Where did it go?

Marketing or ScarJo

SnatcherHunter · Jul 18, 2021

Poor Escape Room 2.

My daughters might be disappointed if they cancel Part 3.

Armadilo · Jul 18, 2021

Tavernade said:
I hope Space Jam continues to do well and they can get some sort of Looney Tunes sequel film out relatively quickly. I'd rather not have a repeat of all the original's sequels being cancelled and then enough time passing that they needed to do yet another reboot to get a film franchise out of it. And then that reboot failing.

Having grown up with the original film, and then watching it again recently, Space Jam 2 is better in pretty much every way (except for a lack of Bill Murray).

I would like see Stephen Curry lead a sequel with a better Director

Malleymal · Jul 18, 2021

Quick question… do kids even watch looney tunes any more?? My kid is too young, but back when space jam came out, bugs and them were very popular.

twinturbo2 · Jul 18, 2021

Aaaaand here comes the finger pointing over Black Widow.
Scoff all you want, but the article says that a torrent tracker is claiming that BW was the most pirated movie last week, it's pretty much game over at this point now. 😢

SuperL · Jul 18, 2021

Malleymal said:
Quick question… do kids even watch looney tunes any more?? My kid is too young, but back when space jam came out, bugs and them were very popular.

The popularity of Looney Tunes has been tied to easy accessibility of the classic shorts. When the first Space Jam was released, they were on like 4 or 5 different networks. Nickelodeon and Cartoon Network had their own Looney Tunes programs, and even the Disney Channel would run the anthology movies from time to time.

In the 2000's, AOL-owned WB decided that none of their animated properties had value except for Scooby Doo and DC, and let them fall out of the public eye. The classic cartoons were shunted to Boomerang, and then left TV altogether.

WB has really been putting in the effort into undoing the damage, since they not only made this and the new cartoons, but most of the classic shorts are on HBO Max now.

Schlorgan · Jul 18, 2021

Just saying, Black Widow will get to $175m-$200m domestic, Space Jam will be lucky to get to $100m domestic.

Deleted member 17388 · Jul 18, 2021

Malleymal said:
Quick question… do kids even watch looney tunes any more?? My kid is too young, but back when space jam came out, bugs and them were very popular.

I bet more kids know who Big Chungus is than Bugs Bunny.

Armadilo · Jul 18, 2021

Malleymal said:
Quick question… do kids even watch looney tunes any more?? My kid is too young, but back when space jam came out, bugs and them were very popular.

They recently had a new looney tunes show on cartoon network and recently another one on HBO Max that is supposed to be really good

Durden · Jul 18, 2021

Rooting for Space Jam. Let me feed off of your disdain.

MrPink · Jul 18, 2021

F9 has been quietly holding quite well since the 2nd weekend drop. I suspect similar things will happen to Black Widow though it's really the OS gross that's disappointing.

Schlorgan · Jul 18, 2021

MrPink said:
F9 has been quietly holding quite well since the 2nd weekend drop. I suspect similar things will happen to Black Widow though it's really the OS gross that's disappointing.

Family wins.

It could get up to $175m domestic, which is pretty good under the circumstances.

ContractHolder · Jul 18, 2021

twinturbo2 said:
Aaaaand here comes the finger pointing over Black Widow.
Scoff all you want, but the article says that a torrent tracker is claiming that BW was the most pirated movie last week, it's pretty much game over at this point now. 😢

Theater owners were never going to praise Premiere Access. They were always going to finger point.

Worry more about how Disney feels. Because they're the ones that actually are going to make the decision to continue.

KillingJoke · Jul 18, 2021

Space Jam sucked but its fun enough to make some bank with the younger crowd.

Penguin · Jul 18, 2021

From Deadline, update on that pure profit from Disney +

A correction to my analysis from last weekend: Disney doesn't get 100% of their Disney+ Premier revenue many studio financial sources have informed me. On a PVOD release, they have to share ~15% of the revenues with platform providers such as Amazon Firestick, AppleTV+, etc. So that $60M global PVOD hooray last weekend is really around an estimated net $51M back to Disney. While it's not as steep as the 40% they have to hand over to exhibition, once again, Disney is burning through an ancillary window faster and bound to walk away with less money in the end than they typically would on a regular theatrical release.

‘Black Widow’ Posts Steepest 2nd Weekend B.O. Drop For Disney MCU Title; Studio Silent On PVOD Update As Piracy Impacts Pic

If Disney keeps up this whole theatrical-PVOD day-and-date model, maybe it won’t be so scary for rival studios in the future to follow a Marvel movie during its second weekend at the box offi…

deadline.com

Superpupperbabysassy · Jul 18, 2021

Space Jam is going to have an big drop off. The big issue with the movie is the forced implementation of the rest of Warner's IP. Lebron and the actors did fine. But Lego movie and South Park did this better.

ZeoVGM · Jul 18, 2021

It's nearly impossible to really know what any of these box office numbers mean right now. We're still in a pandemic, where there are still plenty of vaccinated people who don't feel comfortable going to the theater, and the film is also available to watch from home on Disney+.

This is unprecedented territory.

ContractHolder said:
Theater owners were never going to praise Premiere Access. They were always going to finger point.

Right. But now they have valid reasoning to finger point.

PlatypusDude · Jul 18, 2021

ContractHolder said:
Theater owners were never going to praise Premiere Access. They were always going to finger point.

Worry more about how Disney feels. Because they're the ones that actually are going to make the decision to continue.

I feel their silence regarding Premier Access after touting it last week is likely a little telling.

Plus everything ZeoVGM said. We're in the WIld West here in release models, theaters opening and closing in various countries, and general comfort level.

Rickelodeon · Jul 18, 2021

Tavernade said:
I hope Space Jam continues to do well and they can get some sort of Looney Tunes sequel film out relatively quickly. I'd rather not have a repeat of all the original's sequels being cancelled and then enough time passing that they needed to do yet another reboot to get a film franchise out of it. And then that reboot failing.

Having grown up with the original film, and then watching it again recently, Space Jam 2 is better in pretty much every way (except for a lack of Bill Murray).

Theres's been a Wile E. Coyote movie in development for a couple a years that's made some recent big moves to being finally made, now has a 2023 date set and James Gunn did a pass on the script

ZeoVGM · Jul 18, 2021

PlatypusDude said:
I feel their silence regarding Premier Access after touting it last week is likely a little telling.

I think people should brace themselves for this "day and date" experiment coming to an end, though the window from theater to streaming will be the smallest it's ever been.

KillingJoke · Jul 18, 2021

Wow, the first Space Jam made 230mil ww with a 27mil ow. Never knew it was that big.

Gentlemen · Jul 18, 2021

the bad news is that exhibitors have exactly zero leverage against disney. Of course deadline would call their 40% cut "steep" lol.

Heroicpiglet · Jul 18, 2021

i thought 63% drop is normal with the PA thing

StopMakingSense · Jul 18, 2021

Kinda unrelated but lately I've been looking at Nielsen's streaming numbers and it's hard to ignore how much of a monster Moana is for Disney+. It is most streamed non new release movie in the US. Destroys Frozen 1 and 2 combined.

ContractHolder · Jul 18, 2021

StopMakingSense said:
Kinda unrelated but lately I've been looking at Nielsen's streaming numbers and it's hard to ignore how much of a monster Moana is for Disney+. It is most streamed non new release movie in the US. Destroys Frozen 1 and 2 combined.

And deserves it too. One of my favorite Walt Disney Animation Films.

PlatypusDude · Jul 18, 2021

ZeoVGM said:
I think people should brace themselves for this "day and date" experiment coming to an end, though the window from theater to streaming will be the smallest it's ever been.

Yeah feel if studios were fully seeing what they wanted from day and date streaming to cut out theaters they would be much more vocal of its success. Otherwise you let exhibitors & box office numbers set the narrative, can't just do the Netflix thing of only vague engagement numbers since there are other public barometers you are dealing with.

Still getting a smaller window is definitely a victory for the studio's and people who don't want to go the theater.

Schlorgan · Jul 18, 2021

StopMakingSense said:
Kinda unrelated but lately I've been looking at Nielsen's streaming numbers and it's hard to ignore how much of a monster Moana is for Disney+. It is most streamed non new release movie in the US. Destroys Frozen 1 and 2 combined.

Luca blew up big in the most recent one too

‘Luca’ Leads Nielsen Movie Streaming Rankings With Huge Launch

The family film almost tied with fellow Pixar title 'Soul' in terms of viewership during its first weekend of play in late June.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Pixar's latest offering Luca impressed in its debut on Disney+, according to Nielsen's latest streaming ratings.

The family film easily topped the list of the top 10 most watched movies for the week of June 14-20, with a huge 1.57 billion minutes of viewing time.

That's the equivalent of roughly 16.6 million full runs of the 95-minute movie. That means Luca almost matched fellow Pixar title Soul, which became the first feature film to top Nielsen's overall weekly streaming rankings when debuting over the Christmas corridor. Soul, which runs 100 minutes, captured about 1.67 billion minutes of viewing time, or almost 16.7 million full runs.

Almost matched Soul.

Really curious how it would have done in theaters.

lint2015 · Jul 19, 2021

twinturbo2 said:
Aaaaand here comes the finger pointing over Black Widow.
Scoff all you want, but the article says that a torrent tracker is claiming that BW was the most pirated movie last week, it's pretty much game over at this point now. 😢

There's no doubt piracy plays a part it when you can get a perfect copy ripped straight from the streaming service within hours of release but I think the reality is that theatres haven't quite recovered from the pandemic just yet either. We're seeing a lot of frontloading with this year's blockbusters, whether or not they've gone up on streaming simultaneously. And we also have to grapple with the fact that Black Widow might just be a low-to-mid-tier Marvel flick that isn't garnering the excitement that they'd wanted.

There's just too many factors for them to point the finger at one thing and say that's the problem.

Penguin said:
From Deadline, update on that pure profit from Disney +

‘Black Widow’ Posts Steepest 2nd Weekend B.O. Drop For Disney MCU Title; Studio Silent On PVOD Update As Piracy Impacts Pic

If Disney keeps up this whole theatrical-PVOD day-and-date model, maybe it won’t be so scary for rival studios in the future to follow a Marvel movie during its second weekend at the box offi…

deadline.com

I can't believe they got it wrong with the correction as well. The answer their take is neither 85% nor 100% because not all platforms used to buy the Premier Access will have a cut taken. Apple TV, Roku, yes. Browsers and many smart TVs would not take a cut. The answer will be somewhere in between depending on the platform mix.

ContractHolder · Jul 19, 2021

Schlorgan said:
Luca blew up big in the most recent one too

‘Luca’ Leads Nielsen Movie Streaming Rankings With Huge Launch

The family film almost tied with fellow Pixar title 'Soul' in terms of viewership during its first weekend of play in late June.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Almost matched Soul.

Really curious how it would have done in theaters.

We may never know about Luca 1, but considering Disney+ sent out a survey regarding interest in more Luca content (and those surveys have always hinted at future plans), we could easily see a Luca 2 in theaters and (somewhat) get your answer.

... Or they go the Moana route and just make a D+ show. Which to be fair, is probably more likely.

Principate · Jul 19, 2021

lint2015 said:
There's no doubt piracy plays a part it when you can get a perfect copy ripped straight from the streaming service within hours of release but I think the reality is that theatres haven't quite recovered from the pandemic just yet either. We're seeing a lot of frontloading with this year's blockbusters, whether or not they've gone up on streaming simultaneously. And we also have to grapple with the fact that Black Widow might just be a low-to-mid-tier Marvel flick that isn't garnering the excitement that they'd wanted.

There's just too many factors for them to point the finger at one thing and say that's the problem.

I can't believe they got it wrong with the correction as well. The answer their take is neither 85% nor 100% because not all platforms used to buy the Premier Access will have a cut taken. Apple TV, Roku, yes. Browsers and many smart TVs would not take a cut. The answer will be somewhere in between depending on the platform mix.

Yeah Black Widow is hardly a butt's in the cinema marvel flick. It's equivalent to something like antman. Hell if you made a feature film version of Loki instead I wouldn't be surprised if it'd manage to gather more interest.

twinturbo2 · Jul 19, 2021

Principate said:
Yeah Black Widow is hardly a butt's in the cinema marvel flick. It's equivalent to something like antman. Hell if you made a feature film version of Loki instead I wouldn't be surprised if it'd manage to gather more interest.

Ant Man got two films and is about to get a third. Nothing against Paul Rudd, those films were enjoyable, but if Ant Man can get three films, certainly Natasha can get a sequel with decent legs.

entremet · Jul 19, 2021

Idk why we're using the Pre-COVID calculus here, folks. It's a new game.

Critch · Jul 19, 2021

twinturbo2 said:
Ant Man got two films and is about to get a third. Nothing against Paul Rudd, those films were enjoyable, but if Ant Man can get three films, certainly Natasha can get a sequel with decent legs.

0% chance Natasha gets any kind of sequel.

CloudWolf · Jul 19, 2021

I think Black Widow and also the WB movies are an interesting experiment into seeing what the effect Premier/direct access has on big blockbusters, especially considering piracy. This is pretty much the first time in movie history that you have huge releases simultaneously appearing in cinemas and on torrent sites in the highest quality possible. I can see a lot of people that are curious about those movies (but not huge fans) downloading it for free instead of paying for access.

twinturbo2 said:
Ant Man got two films and is about to get a third. Nothing against Paul Rudd, those films were enjoyable, but if Ant Man can get three films, certainly Natasha can get a sequel with decent legs.

What would a Black Widow sequel even be about? The few other weeks in between BW and Infinity War? lol

Or maybe another prequel to the prequel.

MIMIC · Jul 19, 2021

Malleymal said:
Quick question… do kids even watch looney tunes any more?? My kid is too young, but back when space jam came out, bugs and them were very popular.

Yeah, this is my question. Even though it's a super old cartoon, growing up, the reruns were always on TV. I mean, I'm sure kids can probably identify Bugs Bunny (probably?) but do they still watch Looney Toons?

Solo · Jul 19, 2021

Vertpin said:
The meta score for black widow is in the late 60s? Weren't impressions incredibly high for that?

Always ignore advance impressions. Almost always fanboy tinted and not remotely tied to reality.

twinturbo2 · Jul 19, 2021

CloudWolf said:
What would a Black Widow sequel even be about? The few other weeks in between BW and Infinity War? lol

Or maybe another prequel to the prequel.

We are talking about a death in a comic book story, and the character involved isn't Spider-Man's uncle Ben.

Tavernade · Jul 19, 2021

Rickelodeon said:
Theres's been a Wile E. Coyote movie in development for a couple a years that's made some recent big moves to being finally made, now has a 2023 date set and James Gunn did a pass on the script

Everything I hear about the movie makes it seem less and less likely it'll come out, purely because it just keeps getting better and better and there's no way the universe would let it happen.

Penguin · Jul 19, 2021

Actuals for Widow came in slightly lower so closer to 68% drop over 67%

Space Jam as well, I guess not a good Sunday

Schlorgan · Jul 19, 2021

Penguin said:
Actuals for Widow came in slightly lower so closer to 68% drop over 67%

Space Jam as well, I guess not a good Sunday

Black Widow will only be in the top 5 highest grossing of the year.

Comic book movies are dead.

Penguin · Jul 19, 2021

Schlorgan said:
Black Widow will only be in the top 5 highest grossing of the year.

Comic book movies are dead.

OK?

What does that have to do with the updated data?

Schlorgan · Jul 19, 2021

Penguin said:
OK?

What does that have to do with the updated data?

Nothing to do with you specifically, more about how certain people are talking about Black Widow as if it is a flop and Space Jam as if it's a huge success.

Black Widow will be the highest grossing movie of the year going into the Fall.

bastardly · Jul 19, 2021

space jam is one of the worst movies ive seen this year, but i underestimated the nostalgia people really do hold for the old one, i grew up with it and i always thought it sucked, but i was at the theatre this weekend and there were a ton of people in old space jam jerseys, didnt even know those existed.

Schlorgan · Jul 19, 2021

F9 also had a pretty steep drop in the US in the second weekend but ever since has had pretty solid drops. I could see BW going the same way.

Icemonk191 · Jul 19, 2021

Screen_Shot_2021-07-19_at_5.01.49_PM.png

Black Widow had a worse drop than TROS

That's....yikes. Just super yikes...

Wkd Box Office • 07/16-18/21 • Lebron Out-slams Jordan and Jams to the Top

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