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Will Switch have overtaken the Xbox One's lifetime sales by the end of 2019?

Will Switch lifetime sales overtake Xbox One lifetime sales by the end of the year?

  • Yes

    Votes: 711 79.5%

  • No

    Votes: 83 9.3%

  • They'll be about even by the end of the year

    Votes: 100 11.2%
  • Total voters
    894
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iswasdoes

iswasdoes

Member
Nov 13, 2017
3,084
Londinium
Boiled Goose said:
Goal post move.

So you think no real world consumer is buying a PS4 as a secondary console?

Also secondary or primary, still competing for money and time. When multiplats come out you always buy them on both systems?
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Some, but i think that's much rarer, as if they already have an Xbox then they already have access to a library of 90% (appox) the same games. I would love to see the actual figures

Its not a goal post move, its the core of the argument! If you think Switch is really eating into sales of PS4 and xbox, thats fine. I think they're growing the category and reaching dual owners and handheld players much more so, and would bet my lunch on this being the vast majority of their sales. Therefore not competing for the same dollars.

Edit: not sure I get the last comment, are you talking about software sales? In answer there are several multiplats I own on both ps4 OR xbox AND switch.
 
n00bs7ay3r

n00bs7ay3r

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
Banned
Aug 21, 2018
1,159
Phantom Thief said:
46-47 million is my guess. Xbox traditionally does well in the Holiday season. But maybe I am being a bit optimistic? I don't know how badly sales will fall off this Holiday.
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With Switch Lite and Pokemon both releasing before the end of the year I think the Switch is going to have a very very good holiday season. Like possibly the "toy to buy" kind of season.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Iztok Mravlja said:
No it's not.
And you're not getting proper AAA games on it, this claim is false if only due to vastly inferior multiplats, nevermind all the multiplats you aren't even getting a gutted version of.

It might've been a worthwhile switch (get it) for you, but most definitely isn't a legitimate alternative, objectively.
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People need to learn how to use the word objectively correctly.
 

Deleted member 82

User requested account closure
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Oct 25, 2017
2,626
I'm more interested in knowing when the Switch will overtake the XBO in the West specifically.

Japan, by virtue of a non-existent XBO market and a good Switch market, effectively acts as a 'bonus' 8 million units for Switch right now.

What's the breakdown between the two systems in Europe and the US? and what's the sales differential between the two every month? Does the Switch sell significantly better than the XBO in those markets?
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Kilrogg said:
I'm more interested in knowing when the Switch will overtake the XBO in the West specifically.

Japan, by virtue of a non-existent XBO market and a good Switch market, effectively acts as a 'bonus' 8 million units for Switch right now.

What's the breakdown between the two systems in Europe and the US? and what's the sales differential between the two every month? Does the Switch sell significantly better than the XBO in those markets?
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We don't have official data on XBO sales anywhere, let alone specifically Europe. I think we have a general idea that the XBO does not sell well anywhere outside of the US and UK, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Switch overtakes it in Europe rather soon. The US and UK will take much longer.
 
Jaded Alyx

Jaded Alyx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
35,373
Kilrogg said:
I'm more interested in knowing when the Switch will overtake the XBO in the West specifically.

Japan, by virtue of a non-existent XBO market and a good Switch market, effectively acts as a 'bonus' 8 million units for Switch right now.

What's the breakdown between the two systems in Europe and the US? and what's the sales differential between the two every month? Does the Switch sell significantly better than the XBO in those markets?
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UK aside, XBO isn't doing much in Europe either.

There was at least one country where even the Wii U outsold it.
 
boi

boi

Member
Nov 1, 2017
1,769
I believe its more a compliment to MS really.

MS is effectively fighting two fronts only. Japan will never be in their grasp. Its basically 2 vs 3 territories all the time. They are doing pretty great if you look it from that perspective.
 

Deleted member 82

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Oct 25, 2017
2,626
boi said:
I believe its more a compliment to MS really.

MS is effectively fighting two fronts only. Japan will never be in their grasp. Its basically 2 vs 3 territories all the time. They are doing pretty great if you look it from that perspective.
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Eeeeh, I know I just talked about how Switch results are a bit skewed by Japan, but let's not get ahead of ourselves either. The XBO represents a significant drop in marketshare, brand power and game portfolio (i.e. exclusives) compared to the 360 in every region. It's already poised to sell much less than the 360, and to finish third by the end of the cycle, even with the 1X refresh/upgrade. Outside of the US, it's pretty lackluster, and even there, it's not like it's lighting the charts on fire. And its successor is coming out next year.

The things it has going for it are:
- no RROD (which really is the bare minimum you could ask for)
- great backwards compatibility - definitely a plus, but bc has never been a game-changer for any manufacturer
- Gamepass, but it's a very recent proposition, so the jury is still out, and it's also available on PC if I understand correctly (sorry, haven't dabbled into it)
 
boi

boi

Member
Nov 1, 2017
1,769
Kilrogg said:
Eeeeh, I know I just talked about how Switch results are a bit skewed by Japan, but let's not get ahead of ourselves either. The XBO represents a significant drop in marketshare, brand power and game portfolio (i.e. exclusives) compared to the 360 in every region. It's already poised to sell much less than the 360, and to finish third by the end of the cycle, even with the 1X refresh/upgrade. Outside of the US, it's pretty lackluster, and even there, it's not like it's lighting the charts on fire. And its successor is coming out next year.

The things it has going for it are:
- no RROD (which really is the bare minimum you could ask for)
- great backwards compatibility - definitely a plus, but bc has never been a game-changer for any manufacturer
- Gamepass, but it's a very recent proposition, so the jury is still out, and it's also available on PC if I understand correctly (sorry, haven't dabbled into it)
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Im not talking about comparisons, but current results.

What good does it make to compare the 360 with the One. If you do that, you should compare the 3DS + Wii U + Wii with the Switch since Nintendo consolidated the handheld division with the console division and the Wii U and Wii were competing with the 360. How is it doing in that regard? Pretty sub-optimal as well probably.

It does not make sense to compare the 360 with the One, the same way as it does not make sense to compare the Switch with the Wii U as the Switch represents the follow up to both 3DS and Wii U at the same time. Trust me, there wont be another 3DS.

The one, in the current "generation", is doing fine.
 
MilesQ

MilesQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,490
Phantom Thief said:
Because the next sales milestones for Switch are Xbox One and SNES, respectively?

Here's where things stand currently:
  • Wii U: 13.5 million
  • PS Vita: 15 million
  • Gamecube: 22 million
  • Xbox: 24 million
  • Sega Genesis: 30.75 million
  • Nintendo 64: 33 million
  • Nintendo Switch: 37 million
  • Xbox One: 42 million
  • SNES: 49 million
  • NES: 62 million
  • 3DS: 75 million
  • PSP: 82 million
  • GBA: 82 million
  • Xbox 360: 84 million
  • PS3: 87.4 million
  • PS4: 100 million
  • Wii: 101 million
  • PS1: 102 million
  • Gameboy: 118 million
  • Nintendo DS: 154 million
  • PlayStation 2: 156 million
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What's the source for these figures?
 
J_ToSaveTheDay

J_ToSaveTheDay

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
18,812
USA
I feel like Microsoft may have a very aggressive cycle of deals this holiday season that might maintain the status quo to the end of 2019, a sort of "everything must go" hurrah to the current gen, perhaps? But I think the Switch will just trot right on by next year.

Of course, I don't actually feel 100% confident but I do think there's still room for Microsoft to dominate sales. I'm not really saying this because I'm rooting for Xbox to maintain its current lead or anything (I do personally like the Switch more, as a matter of opinion), but fall is one of the seasons where deals and sales and actual shelf stock goes wild, so while regular trending with the stats outside of holiday seem to favor Switch, I think Microsoft can still play their cards strong through the holidays. I think it's inevitable Switch will overtake Xbox One at some point, I just think there's a chance it won't be by end-of-year 2019.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
MilesQ said:
What's the source for these figures?
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Everything except Xbox One, PS3, and PS Vita is the official numbers for these systems.
PS Vita is an estimate based on common developer rhetoric about the system's install base; Xbox One is an estimate by ZHugeX, linked in the OP; PS3, I was supplied the number by posters in this thread, and is apparently the final total we got from Sony.
 
PedroRVD

PedroRVD

Member
Oct 25, 2017
545
Ecuador
unicornKnight said:
Can I quote you in 4 months? It ain't bombing and it ain't getting low score, if anything it will review better and sell more than Let's Go.
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Yes, you can! I would love to be wrong about this.


Jaded Alyx said:
What kind of figures do you anticipate? How many sold by end of year and how much lifetime?
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Around the same as Pokémon Let's Go.

wrowa said:
Just like Lets Go received bad reviews after getting "bullied" by press and fans? :p
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Let's Go was always looked as a spin off ... an introductory game for casual / GO players. Expectations for it were low. Sword/Shield is THE next mainline Pokémon game , the first ever big game on console. Expectations are all over the place ... that's dangerous.

jaggies said:
I haven't seen any media sources (besides rage-fuel youtubers) with their knives out for Pokémon, though. It seems to be getting a positive reception from the media; most people seem to think the franchise is finally getting some well-overdue changes.

It's really just an extremely vocal minority of Pokémon superfans that are complaining, and I'm sure many of them are going to end up buying the game anyway (even if they're Mad About It Online).

I'm really not worried about Pokémon bombing.
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I really want you are right. I hope it. As somebody who left Pokémon after Ruby / Pearl because it was getting too complex, I'm absolutely fine with what I have seen about the switch game.
 
TuMekeNZ

TuMekeNZ

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,278
Auckland, New Zealand
Iztok Mravlja said:
No it's not.
And you're not getting proper AAA games on it, this claim is false if only due to vastly inferior multiplats, nevermind all the multiplats you aren't even getting a gutted version of.

It might've been a worthwhile switch (get it) for you, but most definitely isn't a legitimate alternative, objectively.
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If you dont think games like Zelda or Mario are AAA then i dont know what to tell you. I'm guessing because it's not as powerful as an xbox it cant possibly be considered legitimate lol.
 
MysticGon

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
Without Microsoft reporting sales there is no way of knowing. Though I'd be surprised if they see growth this year.
 
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