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Will Monster Hunter: Rise outsell Monster Hunter: World?
- Thread starter Theswweet
- Start date
It would need to sell at least about 17 million to do that. While not impossible, that would be more than 3 times the sales of the current best-selling single-SKU portable-focused Monster Hunter (Monster Hunter Portable 3rd for the PSP, 4.9 million units). Even if you combined expansions, the best-selling portable entry is 4+4G, at 8.3 million units.
You have to ask the question of what the audience is; is it the old portable audience, the new 'high-end' audience, or some combination of the two? If it's the latter, what would they find appealing about a scaled-back entry on the Switch? If it's the former, the ceiling for that type of game seems pretty well-established. Or, to put it another way, you'd need to have the best-selling portable numbers (incl. Expansion), and then tack on about half of the sales of World to exceed it. Doesn't seem all that likely, but who knows.
You have to ask the question of what the audience is; is it the old portable audience, the new 'high-end' audience, or some combination of the two? If it's the latter, what would they find appealing about a scaled-back entry on the Switch? If it's the former, the ceiling for that type of game seems pretty well-established. Or, to put it another way, you'd need to have the best-selling portable numbers (incl. Expansion), and then tack on about half of the sales of World to exceed it. Doesn't seem all that likely, but who knows.
From the capcom leak it seemed MH World sold 8.6mil on PS4 (3mil japan only) and 6mil on PC (300k japan only) as of sept 30. I
I think the switch version will marginally outsell the PS4 version given the momentum switch has in japan (and ROW). I remember sony pushing huge marketing for MH World and i dont think nintendo will market it as hard as sony did.
I think the switch version will marginally outsell the PS4 version given the momentum switch has in japan (and ROW). I remember sony pushing huge marketing for MH World and i dont think nintendo will market it as hard as sony did.
MHP 3rd is also the highest selling MH in Japan ever.
Is 5 million the upper limit for Monster Hunter in Japan? We will see.
It's pretty much impossible for a Switch and (sometime) PC MH to beat World because World brought a lot of new people to Monster Hunter. A lot of which based on FOMO.
You're supposed to get an avatar you don't want when you lose an avatar bet.
Switch software sales are absolutely ridiculous. Monster Hunter as a franchise is bigger than ever. Combining the two seems like a pretty big recipe for success. Now, while I personally wouldn't bet on it, I think there is a distinct possibility of it happening. It seems insane but with the PC version of Rise more or less confirmed, I don't think it's totally out of the picture like most would claim. It'll at least get far closer than you'd think.
Let's take a look at MHW's leaked sales numbers
It's worth noting Switch install base when Rise releases will be bigger than PS4's was when World released in World's biggest regions, being Japan, America, and Asia. I'm unsure about EU but I'm sure it's close.
I think it's entirely possible Rise NSW's Japanese sales are equal to World PS4's Japanese sales + MHW's global Xbox sales. Considering how well MH4 did, and how literally every 3DS franchise that has made it to Switch has seem a massive increase in sales, I think MHP3's record is finally breaking and it hits 5M.
Rise NSW's Asian sales exceeding World PS4's Asian sales also seems reasonable. Switch seems to be fair bit more successful than PS4 in this market, especially with software sales. Switch is also more successful launch aligned in America than PS4, so Rise NSW doing about as well if not slightly more than MHW PS4 is doable. I have no idea about Switch in Europe so let's just assume by default Rise NSW does worse than MHW PS4 here, but I think America and especially Asia can make up the difference.
All that is to say, I think it's very much possible Rise NSW does about the same as World PS4+XBO, The big question mark at that point is how Rise does on PC compared to World on the same platform. Who knows how strong the retention from World to Rise will be, but it's worth noting Rise will probably have lower system requirements, which may help it sell more. And the PC release of World may have brought in enough new hardcore fans of the franchise that will be ready to buy any new release that comes their way.
Now I want to make it clear, I'm not saying any of this is a certainty lol. Just because the Switch is doing better than PS4 launch aligned doesn't mean that will translate to those platforms' respective Mon Hun games! But moreso than the hardware sales, Switch software is just performing at an unprecedented rate. I would be surprised if an exclusive Mon Hun were to break that trend.
And one huge caveat, if Rise does actually overtake World, it won't happen immediately. It might pass it launch aligned at some point, but LTD will be hard, especially because World continues to sell strongly to this day! We know Rise is getting a major expansion sometime in 2022, so I imagine that game will have strong continued success as well. But Monster Hunter World is Capcom's best selling game ever. Outdoing that would be a gargantuan feat. I simply wanted to make that case that it's possible, which is insane in of itself.
But at the end of the day I think both World and Rise will be comfortably be Capcom's two best selling games ever. Both console and handheld Monster Hunter have a place to exist, and the franchise's fans should be happy no matter what. But it's fun to speculate. :p
Let's take a look at MHW's leaked sales numbers
Code:
PC
PC Asia: 2.531m
PC USA: 1.616m
PC EU: 1.570m
PC Japan: 0.236m
PC Total: 5.953m
PS4
PS4 Japan: 3.184m
PS4 USA: 2.392m
PS4 EU: 1.702m
PS4 Asia: 1.414m
PS4 Total: 8.693m
Xbox
Worldwide 1.789mIt's worth noting Switch install base when Rise releases will be bigger than PS4's was when World released in World's biggest regions, being Japan, America, and Asia. I'm unsure about EU but I'm sure it's close.
I think it's entirely possible Rise NSW's Japanese sales are equal to World PS4's Japanese sales + MHW's global Xbox sales. Considering how well MH4 did, and how literally every 3DS franchise that has made it to Switch has seem a massive increase in sales, I think MHP3's record is finally breaking and it hits 5M.
Rise NSW's Asian sales exceeding World PS4's Asian sales also seems reasonable. Switch seems to be fair bit more successful than PS4 in this market, especially with software sales. Switch is also more successful launch aligned in America than PS4, so Rise NSW doing about as well if not slightly more than MHW PS4 is doable. I have no idea about Switch in Europe so let's just assume by default Rise NSW does worse than MHW PS4 here, but I think America and especially Asia can make up the difference.
All that is to say, I think it's very much possible Rise NSW does about the same as World PS4+XBO, The big question mark at that point is how Rise does on PC compared to World on the same platform. Who knows how strong the retention from World to Rise will be, but it's worth noting Rise will probably have lower system requirements, which may help it sell more. And the PC release of World may have brought in enough new hardcore fans of the franchise that will be ready to buy any new release that comes their way.
Now I want to make it clear, I'm not saying any of this is a certainty lol. Just because the Switch is doing better than PS4 launch aligned doesn't mean that will translate to those platforms' respective Mon Hun games! But moreso than the hardware sales, Switch software is just performing at an unprecedented rate. I would be surprised if an exclusive Mon Hun were to break that trend.
And one huge caveat, if Rise does actually overtake World, it won't happen immediately. It might pass it launch aligned at some point, but LTD will be hard, especially because World continues to sell strongly to this day! We know Rise is getting a major expansion sometime in 2022, so I imagine that game will have strong continued success as well. But Monster Hunter World is Capcom's best selling game ever. Outdoing that would be a gargantuan feat. I simply wanted to make that case that it's possible, which is insane in of itself.
But at the end of the day I think both World and Rise will be comfortably be Capcom's two best selling games ever. Both console and handheld Monster Hunter have a place to exist, and the franchise's fans should be happy no matter what. But it's fun to speculate. :p
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I imagine RIse will probably set new portable highs, but I dunno about outselling World, that was bottled lightning even for the Monster Hunter franchise. Best of luck to doing it though. I won't rule out the possibility.
1. When you compare to 17 million, you should take into account the PC version of MHR as well. And in regards to the PC version, on the one hand, the graphics might be a little less than MHW, but MHR looks very good, and on the other hand more PCs with lower specs will be able to handle MHR.
2. In regards to "If it's the latter, what would they find appealing about a scaled-back entry on the Switch?" - I definitely would not call it scaled back, it has lots of things that would be seen by many as improvements over MHW.
Gonna say no. World undoubtedly got a ton of new people in but I think it just as well reminded people that its not their thing. Or like me as someone who liked World and played the heck out of it to the point they kinda burned themselves out on the series for a bit longer. The demo was fine but it made me realize I wasn't ready to jump back into MH.
I'm just gonna say absolutely not. It'll do amazing in Japan, but the west has had their fill already.
I'm saying yes because about 80% of Switch owners in Japan well buy Rise and the PC release will make up the rest of the deficit.
While I voted no, you might want to read the post just above yours.
No but it will do pretty well overall between both Switch and PC. It'll easily be the second best selling game in the franchise.
It will definetely be the most successful Nintendo MonHun riding on World's success.
Base World was an outlier. The "real" number is the people that got Iceborne. A big part of the wider MonHun community will, of course, play Rise. So Iceborne numbers are a guarantee. It will definetely surpass World in Japan.
My guess is about halfway between Iceborne and World by the end of the year. Which will still be incredible for the very limited scope of a mobile spin-off.
Base World was an outlier. The "real" number is the people that got Iceborne. A big part of the wider MonHun community will, of course, play Rise. So Iceborne numbers are a guarantee. It will definetely surpass World in Japan.
My guess is about halfway between Iceborne and World by the end of the year. Which will still be incredible for the very limited scope of a mobile spin-off.
Probably not. MHW is reaching top tier Nintendo franchises numbers that pretty much only Nintendo gets on their platform. So I doubt it'll sell more. It's possible though with the pc version and actually quite likely imo if the pc version of Rise would outsell the pc version of World. But World being both the first MonHun on pc and the first MonHun that reached that big mainstream status further putting eyes on MonHun which obviously includes the pc version too makes me think it won't beat World pc numbers.
No, it won't. We're talking about 1 system userbase vs 2, and MHW had a bigger marketing campaign, which helped the game a lot I believe. Then there is the pc port, which is favourable towards MHW. It got announced early, so many pc players were anticipating that version.
Rise will most likely be the second best selling MH game though. Perhaps the best selling MH in Japan, but P3rd is hard to overtake. Heck, I think it's possible that Rise will be the best selling game per platform.
Rise will most likely be the second best selling MH game though. Perhaps the best selling MH in Japan, but P3rd is hard to overtake. Heck, I think it's possible that Rise will be the best selling game per platform.
No it won't. World landed on more platforms, and I also think World was an invitation for newcomers; some probably won't return.
Absolutely not. It'll definitely be 8m+ but there's no reality where it's meeting or beating World.
Nope.
People in the west will either beg for other console port, wait for the Switch Pro, or try it on Pc "but the graphics sucks."
People in the west will either beg for other console port, wait for the Switch Pro, or try it on Pc "but the graphics sucks."
In Japan? By a literal landslide most likely.
Worldwide? Depends on Japan + how good of a game it is I suppose (much like World word of mouth will play a role here).
Either way, were looking at a 10M title, at a minimum for sure. How far it can go beyond that (or beyond World itself) is anyone's guess right now.
Worldwide? Depends on Japan + how good of a game it is I suppose (much like World word of mouth will play a role here).
Either way, were looking at a 10M title, at a minimum for sure. How far it can go beyond that (or beyond World itself) is anyone's guess right now.
I bought world on PS4, XB1 & PC (due to my 3DS group being completely spread out), i will only buy Rise on Switch & then PC so going off of that scientific formula i will estimate that Rise will only sell 66% of Worlds numbers
We basically did this already:
www.resetera.com
Which Sells More? Monster Hunter World or Monster Hunter Rise
First off, this is overall all sales of the original games. So if Rise gets a Rise “G” Version, it isn’t counted with total sales. Same goes for Iceborne. Second, this is for all platforms combine Worldwide Lifetime. So MHW has PS4/X1/PC and MHR will have NSW/PC. 📝 Notes 🗒 -MHW is by...
www.resetera.com
I think MHW was multiple steps forward in all regards, while Rise doesn't seem too drastic with its changes. Given the old Switch hardware it doesn't look and run too hot and unfortunately, it seems to have highly compressed audio quality.
What I'm trying to say is, World's development budget was probably on a whole different level, and the game offered a huge WOW factor in every aspect. I don't see that in Rise.
What I'm trying to say is, World's development budget was probably on a whole different level, and the game offered a huge WOW factor in every aspect. I don't see that in Rise.
Doubt it.
Then again, the switch is very popular and it is coming to PC so there is a possibility it might be closer than we think.
Then again, the switch is very popular and it is coming to PC so there is a possibility it might be closer than we think.
I agree with your overall point but I'm not sure Xbox and PS4 are really more accessible than Switch?
Nah, I just meant people were more likely to have Xbox's and PS4's at that time. It was also easy enough to bring your friends into games and voice chat
I looked at it. And yeah it's a take but I still think that on the face of it there's no way it's beating World. We need to remember that on top of World being on three platforms it is also a fantastic game with fantastic DLC and post launch support. Even if Rise is as good (which I doubt it will be) it still has the aforementioned to contend with. Additionally World was seen as a huge AAA release at the time it launched. Huge hype surrounding it. And obviously Rise is exciting etc but I just don't see it having the pull that World had, they aren't even promoting it as much. I do think the sales will be bolstered by lack of huge Switch games in general but no it's not beating World.
