Mario Kart 8 DLC instead of MK9 makes me think MK9 is a title for next gen. If that's true, then next-gen is about two years away. Two years is a lot longer than ya'll think.
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When Nintendo said that Switch is halfway in its lifecycle they were not kidding. When do you think Switch 2 will release?
- Thread starter Personablue
- Start date
I expect Switch to have a 10 year life cycle, but "life cycle" doesn't end just because the successor system releases.
Even the 3DS got what? 8 or 9 years of support?
There's no reason why you would cut Switch support regardless of when the "next chipset iteration" comes.
The other difference today is with only one hardware line I think Nintendo is more sensitive to declining sales. In the past it didn't really matter if Game Boy sales declined or had rough patches (SNES cushioned declining Game Boy sales) because there was a console division to create boosts in their overall hardware forecast and vice versa (DS introduced in 2004 boosted Nintendo during sluggish GameCube sales).
They don't have this dynamic any more, so it will be interesting to see what level of decline they are comfortable with. Companies don't get to dictate this stuff on their own, the consumer has a large say in the end with their buying patterns.
I think it's just a sales person thing to say so that people don't stop buying your existing product. Switch may be around for a while but that doesn't mean a new iteration is a year or two off from release IMO.
2025 at the earliest. The switch is selling well. There's a chip shortage for years to come. Software is selling in its millions. The pandemic is raging. Why rock the boat.
The current Switch lasting 10-13 years without a successor is definitely pushing it.
I've been messing about with a Switch for the first time and some games like Mario odyssey look fine on a tv but holy shit some games look rough as hell.
This thing will be on its deathbed in 3 years.
This thing will be on its deathbed in 3 years.
I'm sure people understand they just don't want it to be true ^^
Alternatively a successor / new iteration could come and they wouldn't have lied at all.
2017 - Release
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 - "Half way"
2023 - Pro / Successor Console released, limited like PS5/XSX
2024 - Maybe this year
2025 - This year at a push and I would suggest they've fucked the brand by this point. Being 2 gens behind after the competition moved on 3+ years ago clearly unacceptable
2026
2027 - OG Switch shipments cease if brand wasn't already terminal / dead sooner
I also hope to see a Switch Pro come out soon. However, I do not consider it the Switch 2/Successor. I hope they consider letting the Switch brand continue in a form similar to what Microsoft is doing with Xbox.
I don't think you understand how console life cycles work if you seriously took half way literally.
Fun fact: A system's life cycle does not end the moment its successor is released.
We're almost a year and a half from the release of the PS5 and Sony's still releasing several major PS4 games through the end of the year.
I voted holiday 2023 but honestly I think they've put it on the back burner until necessity dictates or the chip crisis eases up. What can they even do? They might have some great design made and ready to go but if they can't make the units to meet even a tepid demand it will be pointless to release it.
Nintendo has just released the OLED Switch. It has already sold over 100 million consoles and it is still selling. Nintendo hit the jackpot with the Switch, and it will probably hold to it as much as it can.
The Switch was a great idea from Nintendo. You see, Nintendo released the Wii and it was a huge success. It tried to repeat the formula with the Wii U and it bombed. The DS was very successful as well, but its successor 3DS, did not manage to reach the same heights.
Nintendo is making a lot of money selling games for the Switch. Many of them managed to sell over 10 million copies, including the recently released Pokemon which sold that in less than a month. The Switch is a gold mine. Nintendo does not have to make money from console sales; it may keep adding new titles to the Switch as long as people keep buying them. And, because of the console sales, there is a huge base of buyers for Switch games.
I suppose Nintendo will not trade that for the uncertainty involved in launching a new console. Nintendo is not competing with Sony and Microsoft to deliver the ultimate graphical experience that needs to be updated every 5 years or so.
The Switch was a great idea from Nintendo. You see, Nintendo released the Wii and it was a huge success. It tried to repeat the formula with the Wii U and it bombed. The DS was very successful as well, but its successor 3DS, did not manage to reach the same heights.
Nintendo is making a lot of money selling games for the Switch. Many of them managed to sell over 10 million copies, including the recently released Pokemon which sold that in less than a month. The Switch is a gold mine. Nintendo does not have to make money from console sales; it may keep adding new titles to the Switch as long as people keep buying them. And, because of the console sales, there is a huge base of buyers for Switch games.
I suppose Nintendo will not trade that for the uncertainty involved in launching a new console. Nintendo is not competing with Sony and Microsoft to deliver the ultimate graphical experience that needs to be updated every 5 years or so.
My personal prediction:
Switch 2 will launch around April 2024. This would be a good sweetspot for starting the transition into Next Gen for Nintendo. They could provide the following games for launch:
1. New big casual game by EPD 4
They are developing Switch Sports at the moment, but after they will have finished this, they would have two full years to develop a big casual launchtitle for Switch 2.
2. New 3D Mario by EPD Tokyo
According to rumors, a smaller group of EPD Tokyo is developing a new 2D DK for Switch at the moment (maybe with heavy assistance by EPD 10). So their bigger group could indeed prepare a brandnew 3D Mario for Switch 2. And after the 'smaller group' will have finished 2D DK - lets say in early 2023 - they could join the other staff members of the bigger group. EPD Tokyo will be supported as usual by 1UP Studio and NST for this game. So Nintendo could really have a new big 3D Mario ready for launch of Switch 2
3. Exclusiv title by some 3rd-Party-Developer (SE, Capcom, UbiSoft)
I think it would be totally fine to launch with three exclusive launchgames + a lot of Multigames for sure. For the months after launch, Nintendo could have ready the following games for Switch 2:
- Pikmin 4 (by EPD 10)
- Pokken Tournament 2 (by Bandai Namco/TPC)
- another exclusive 3rd-Party-Title
- Splatoon 3.5
- new Goodfeel Game (that will not come out on Switch 1 anymore)
- new Mario Party (by Camelot)
I think this kind of lineup would be enough to carry Switch 2's momentum over the first nine months. Luigis Mansion 4 and Mario Kart X will be the big holiday games for christmas 2025 then.
Switch 2 will launch around April 2024. This would be a good sweetspot for starting the transition into Next Gen for Nintendo. They could provide the following games for launch:
1. New big casual game by EPD 4
They are developing Switch Sports at the moment, but after they will have finished this, they would have two full years to develop a big casual launchtitle for Switch 2.
2. New 3D Mario by EPD Tokyo
According to rumors, a smaller group of EPD Tokyo is developing a new 2D DK for Switch at the moment (maybe with heavy assistance by EPD 10). So their bigger group could indeed prepare a brandnew 3D Mario for Switch 2. And after the 'smaller group' will have finished 2D DK - lets say in early 2023 - they could join the other staff members of the bigger group. EPD Tokyo will be supported as usual by 1UP Studio and NST for this game. So Nintendo could really have a new big 3D Mario ready for launch of Switch 2
3. Exclusiv title by some 3rd-Party-Developer (SE, Capcom, UbiSoft)
I think it would be totally fine to launch with three exclusive launchgames + a lot of Multigames for sure. For the months after launch, Nintendo could have ready the following games for Switch 2:
- Pikmin 4 (by EPD 10)
- Pokken Tournament 2 (by Bandai Namco/TPC)
- another exclusive 3rd-Party-Title
- Splatoon 3.5
- new Goodfeel Game (that will not come out on Switch 1 anymore)
- new Mario Party (by Camelot)
I think this kind of lineup would be enough to carry Switch 2's momentum over the first nine months. Luigis Mansion 4 and Mario Kart X will be the big holiday games for christmas 2025 then.
Which is the reason they have to do the switch to the successor with care.
A break is a bigger risk then it ever was.
I know were at a point where graphics are less central then 15 years ago.
But thech is progressing, and switch games are more and more starting to look.. dated.
I could see them going another 5 years... but only if we get a pro/2 that is 100% backwards compatible.
And if the moment comes where they need to make a jump to a new platform/branding,
then they will prepare for a mass migration: a lot of service games, new software etc for the start.
Thanks for telling us. I'll let Nintendo HQ know they should call you so you can judge whether their new console is or isn't the Switch successor.
Jokes aside, I totally understand you. I don't consider the Xbox Series X the successor to the Xbox One. Therefore, it isn't. Case closed.
It's crazy we still have no idea when the next 3D Mario game will come out yet about 5 years after Odyssey. Bowser's Fury was nice but I'm ready for a 3D Mario soon.
Switch Pro is just the professional version of the Switch. And it will be godlike
Switch sales in 2017, first revision and Lite sales in 2019, OLED model sales in 2021.
Every two years some variation is sold.
Perhaps in 2023, it will not be a successor, and Nintendo will just say, "This is the new Nintendo Switch."
The successor will be 2025 or 2026 I'm betting on 2026 because I think they're working too slowly.
Every two years some variation is sold.
Perhaps in 2023, it will not be a successor, and Nintendo will just say, "This is the new Nintendo Switch."
The successor will be 2025 or 2026 I'm betting on 2026 because I think they're working too slowly.
OK, you are right. But Nintendo can keep selling Switch hardware for some time AND benefit from software sales, which are being huge. If Nintendo releases a new console, it will face the risk of diminishing both hardware and software sales.
As I said, I personally asume that the next 3D Mario will a launchtitel of Switch 2 in 2024. I think after Odyssey, 3D Allstars and 3D World + BF they are done with 3D Marios in Switch 1
I've moved my prediction back to March 2025.
There will be no Pro version in the interim years.
If it comes out of the gates when the chip shortage is over AND the tech level at that point in time is pretty incredible (i.e. they get really closely aligned to what Nvidia keeps on doing), they'll offer an incredible handheld. I'd expect it to be the level of a PS4 Pro but with the benefits of fast storage and a better CPU. 4k30 on the TV, 1080p60 handheld.
Every game that has straddled gens over the years to fill the chip shortage period will come out on it and it'll be incredible on that front.
It'll still be pretty basic in the OS world, but that's ok by me. EA will continue to ignore it.
There will be no Pro version in the interim years.
If it comes out of the gates when the chip shortage is over AND the tech level at that point in time is pretty incredible (i.e. they get really closely aligned to what Nvidia keeps on doing), they'll offer an incredible handheld. I'd expect it to be the level of a PS4 Pro but with the benefits of fast storage and a better CPU. 4k30 on the TV, 1080p60 handheld.
Every game that has straddled gens over the years to fill the chip shortage period will come out on it and it'll be incredible on that front.
It'll still be pretty basic in the OS world, but that's ok by me. EA will continue to ignore it.
The NES had a lifespan of 7 years before a successor came out, but only 6 years in the U.S. And it was the longest among Nintendo consoles. The Wii was second, with 6 years, and probably because it was incredibly successful. Handheld consoles lasted more. The original Game Boy had a 9-year lifespan, and that is even without considering the Game Boy Color. The Nintendo DS, another successful handheld console, lasted for 7 years before the 3DS came out.
As Nintendo has just launched a premium and more expensive variation (the OLED), I would say it will not get replaced any time soon. I would say 2023 would be the bare minimum for the Switch, but still too early. 2024 to 2026 seems more likely. There is still room for Nintendo to sell some additional 50 million units of the Switch or even more.
As Nintendo has just launched a premium and more expensive variation (the OLED), I would say it will not get replaced any time soon. I would say 2023 would be the bare minimum for the Switch, but still too early. 2024 to 2026 seems more likely. There is still room for Nintendo to sell some additional 50 million units of the Switch or even more.
I don't know if they'll do a hardware refresh at this point, though it's possible. But a Switch 2 or whatever it's called is most likely be out by the end of 2024. Hopefully, Nvidia will cook something good for the next system.
720p OLED display
DLSS & HDR enabled up to 2160p in docked mode (I don't think they'll have 120fps games, but who knows)
5-6 hours battery life
256/512GB storage (I doubt SSD will be a thing unless prices plummet in the coming years)
64GB carts should be affordable and widely used by publishers
2017 - Release
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 - "Half way"
2023
2024 - New hardware
2025
2026/2027 - Switch hardware production ends
720p OLED display
DLSS & HDR enabled up to 2160p in docked mode (I don't think they'll have 120fps games, but who knows)
5-6 hours battery life
256/512GB storage (I doubt SSD will be a thing unless prices plummet in the coming years)
64GB carts should be affordable and widely used by publishers
That's not how any of this works. A console life cycle doesn't end with the release of new hardware. The PS2 for example was still being sold waaaay after the PS3 was released.
2017 - Release
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 - "Half way"
2023
2024 - New hardware
2025
2026/2027 - Switch hardware production ends
To be more accurate, they said they're in the middle. This could also be interpreted as how the ages of 24-26 are in the middle of one's 20s. And even then, I doubt Nintendo will cut in the original Switch off cold turkey if the 3DS is any indication.
They could also have another Smash game ready by 2025 by your estimates, as Ultimate took just under 3 years to develop (3 years total counting the planning phase). I doubt Nintendo will leave that franchise on the shelf for long. And if Sakurai begins development by the end of this year, they can have Smash 6/7 out by Holiday 2025.
I might be in the minority but I feel nobody should even attempt to release a next-gen console until production and supply is sorted out.
Chip fab and allocations would have been negotiated at least a few years in advance, what could happen is more about being restricted in how many they could produce rather than inability to produce, ala the PS5 which has seen its shipments cut drastically. It's highly unlikely they walk away from that if they've also reserved capacity.
What for? Will Switch even be getting major releases after early 2023?
I can't see another Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, another Smash, another Splatoon, another major Zelda after BotW2…
To be fair they said it was halfway in like early 2020, so they can move it forward or back whenever they want. I don't think we get past holiday 2024 without switch 2
