What do you think will be the biggest flop of 2018?

[Zukkoyaki]

I'm apparently way more bullish on Days Gone and Sea of Thieves than a lot of folks (though I the the latter will be a slow burn).

My picks are Kingdom Come Deliverance from Warhorse Studios and Extinction from Iron Galaxy.

Kingdom Come looks like a strong role-playing experience but I don't think it's going to overcome how janky it looks and plays. I also feel that it's been delayed too much for too long and a lot of hype is gone.

Extinction is a game that I personally think will be good because Iron Galaxy and put together some wicked gameplay. Problem is though, people aren't feeling the art direction and there seems to be almost zero hype for it even in enthusiast circles like ERA. It's the sort of low-end AAA game that tends to struggle at full-price retail.

 

[Ravelle]

They didnt make LBP3 :P

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They didn't? I wasn't aware of that! Still a bummer, the first LBP is one of my favorite games and was disappointed in the story of the second one, it lacked the themes, structure and charm the first one had. The custom user created levels were always super fun.

 

[Socrates]

A million copies is nothing for these massive AAA titles. There probably looking at minimum sales of 6-7 million to claw back. Not saying BF2 wont get there, but its not doing the numbers 2015 version was.

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Their

 

[Theorry]

Whats with the Sea of Thieves "taking forever posts"?
It was announced at E3 2015. And gets released 2 years and 9 months later. Doesnt seem that crazy. And with what kind of game it is and it letting people in early to be part of the development they couldnt announce it alot later. They needed to people to jump in early. Wich only helps the game.

 

[Vadara]

I'm not a weirdo who gains bizarre amounts of pseudo-sexual thrill from seeing games flop so I'm going to make any predictions, especially when they often prove to be wrong.

 

[Spiderman]

That new EA looking Destiny game.

 

[Sal_S]

This is either a poorly constructed troll post, or you live in a time zone that's a year behind.

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Maybe he uses Internet Explorer

 

[Theorry]

I think we need to define what a flop is. For example do we consider any game that sell not so much a flop? Or any game that sells lower than expectations?

For example I don't think Dreams is going to flop because I was never expecting it to sell more than 1m. I think Days Gone has far more chances of being a flop because it looks like a far more expensive game to make. Same goes with Crackdown which in my opinion is the no1 contestant of being a flop.

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Yeah thats what i keep saying. What is a flop? Scores wise, commercial wise, launch sales wise. Even more these days with games being updated over a longer period and have extra income next to the sold copy.
Halo 5 had not the best day one sales. Still good tho. But at the end made more money then any other Halo game. So yeah. But we dont know the budget also. And most of the time the digital sales we dont know also. Wich generates more money for the publisher then a disc copy at the end.

 

[Popular Demand]

I think it looks fine, I'm just saying people are predicting doom and gloom because its not Naughty Dog and its not TLOU . . . but I also don't expect an open world game to look as good as some highly polished linear games.

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I think Arkham Knight is _arguably_ (I know it's up for contentious debate) the best looking game of this gen, and it's open world, so I'm not so certain it's impossible for an open world title from a skilled team to push visuals comparable to highly polished linear games.

 

[Tribal_Cult]

If Bayo 2 sold enough to warrant a sequel, I think Bayo 3 will be fine. Surely they don't expect 7 million copies sold. Also not releasing in 2018.

Travis Strikes Back is a much bigger possibility sadly.

Sea of Thieves is a nice candidate.

Anthem might get bitten by Battlefront II but I'm sure it won't have microtransactions so people will notice that.

Skulls & Bones is also not 2018 and will b3 fine imho.

 

[VinylCassette64]

The most likely candidate IMO is Crackdown 3. It's been wallowing in development hell for some time and has multiple developers actively working on the project; and the game when it was shown at its recent E3 showcase looked absolutely rough. I can see that becoming some sort of sunk cost fallacy scenario for MS. And that's assuming MS doesn't pull a Scalebound and just trashes the entire thing.

I'm having a hard time seeing Sea of Thieves garnering anything outside of a cult following. I think it has a 50/50 chance that it might underperform, or get modest numbers only because it will likely be the first (meaningful) first-party Xbox exclusive in a while after 2017's drought.

I feel MM's Dreams could also underperform (it took the LBP Games a while to build their sales, both Tearaway games went nowhere commercially, and the game has also been in development for quite some time now), though I do feel MM might stand a better chance of hanging around after it's release in contrast to Rare in case the game does perform below expectations.

 

[seiki]

i'm afraid it will be Shenmue 3.

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Get out boy before I'm ready to do something to ya

 

[Jarrod38]

The only came I can see truly selling poorly and performing poorly will be Crackdown 3 and that is coming from a fan of the first two. The ship has sailed for that game.

 

[P A Z]

Almost Certain

Metro Exodus - The FPS landscape has changed since Last Light, SP only shooters are less viable than they were, it's gonna struggle in Deep Silver's hands too.
Onrush - I just don't think there's a market for arcade racers anymore.
Shadow of the Colossus - It's a remake of a niche game. Be realistic.
Darksiders 3 - Nah.


Could Go Either Way

Dreams - "What is it? What do you do?" Will Sony actually push it?
State of Decay 2 - Will be good but PUBG and MS pushing Sea of Thieves will keep it out the limelight. Does it need to sell loads though?
Crackdown 3 - Doesn't seem to have any buzz at all but it's still the big Xbox exclusive (announced) for 2018.

 

[MiguelBañón]

You can't close what you don't own. Hazelight Studio is an indie dev.

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Oh, I thought they actually owned it. I'm happy for them then. I still can see that game being a flop tho.

 

[Chaos2Frozen]

You know, I would say Metal Gear but I don't think Konami put enough effort and resource into the game to make a big enough flop.

Anthem would be my bet. People are fucking pissed at EA, Bioware has lost their edge, and the game was designed to be the next hottest shit. Perfect storm for a mega flop.

Days Gone is a possibility, but I think Sony has too strong of quality check on their big IPs now. It'll be a Horizon scenario where everyone is surprised how good it is.

 

[Peek-a-boo!]

Honestly, Sea of Thieves at $60/€60/£50 is going to underwhelm...

Maybe Crackdown 3 too. There's nary a single video that inspires confidence.

To me, Days Gone is looking awfully similar to the Horizon Zero Dawn situation, whereby the latter was (apparently) going to bomb according to quite a lot of people on the previous place, yet it turned out to be quite the opposite!

Spider-Man is definitely going to be one of the biggest selling games of the year in 2018.

 

[Instro]

Days Gone has struck me as a bomba since it was revealed, and I can't say it has done anything since to change that. It's a first party game though, so it will probably end up doing ok. The big bombas usually come from the 3rd party side. Anthem seems like the obvious candidate right now, given the general backlash to games of this style and to EA in general. I feel like we don't know enough about the 2018 lineup to really say though.

 

[number8888]

Days Gone is my top choice. It just feels so generic and uninteresting. I don't see people giving it much thought in the same year that God of War and Spider-man comes out (supposedly).

 

[Salty Rice]

i'm afraid it will be Shenmue 3.

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Yep this one. Outside of backers not many people gonna get it.

Sea Of Thieves for 60 bucks is also a strong contender.

 

[Deleted member 437]

Days Gone and Dreams.

Dreams looks really really great, but I don't think the general consumer is really going to latch onto it.

Days Gone still kinda looks mediocre. I just hate the way the protagonist looks, and the zombies called "freakers". It all just looks "been there, done that".

Of course, I hope I am 100% wrong and I would gladly eat a hot bowl of crow.

 

[daveo42]

I'm betting on:
Sea of Thieves
Dreams
Days Gone
Metal Gear Survive

 

[impact]

Monster Hunter World.

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It's ok man, Monster Hunter will come to Switch eventually. Everything is gonna be ok.

 

[Chaos2Frozen]

That Ubisoft toys to life game. The bubble has already burst.

I also think Code Vein will flop. I don't think there's much overlap between Souls fans and anime fans.

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Where do you think all that waifu talk in Souls comes from?

 

[Deleted member 32615]

Yoshi Switch definitely, Woolly World was one of the most boring games in recent years, and New Island was just bad. I hope I'm wrong, cause I love yoshi :(

 

[StiLteD]

I honestly think Anthem will be fine. Battlefront II still sold a whackload of copies despite the (well-deserved) controversy; it's obviously underperforming compared to expectations, but close to a million copies is a million copies. And while it's possible that Anthem will carry the stink of EA in general/Battlefront II in particular with it, I think it's too closely associated with Bioware and too reminiscent of Destiny to truly flop. Maybe it won't get an Anthem II, and I could see it underperfoming, but I don't think it'll bomb.

Sea of Thieves and Dreams seem like the obvious choices. Dreams might fare better than Project Spark but that's not saying much. I think "comprehensive and easy-to-use game creation suite" isn't an easy thing to sell, and even when its ambitions were more constrained in LittleBigPlanet, it didn't make the splash that Super Mario Maker did. Dreams is even more abstract and gives you even more options.

Sea of Thieves I think will just suffer due to lack of interest, which kills multiplayer games dead. It would be different if you could play solo multiplayer, but the game seems so focused on having a pirate crew that I can't see any solo/matchmaker MP working particularly well.

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I think Anthem will flop, and I'll go as far as defining my meaning of flop as performing well below financial requirements and publisher expectations in direct correlation to its development costs.

I think any flop status needs to be assessed on cost/revenue ratio in some way, as selling a million could equally be deemed a profound disaster as easily as it could be a success in today's market given some of the budgets involved.

 

[Horse Armour]

I'm not a weirdo who gains bizarre amounts of pseudo-sexual thrill from seeing games flop so I'm going to make any predictions, especially when they often prove to be wrong.

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Riiiiiiiiiight.....

 

[Desfrog]

Gut says Dreams but the huge amount positivity around the game from journalists gives me some hope. Feels like with the right marketing and release date it could do well for itself especially if streamers pick it up.

 

[MoonFrog]

The western audience when it doesn't vault DQXI's sales to 10 million.

 

[Hindle]

Dreams.

Days Gone.

My thinking is Sony will GOW the main marketing push.

 

[Dabi3]

I love Ubi and appreciate the risks they take but Skull & Bones isn't exactly what we asked for when we wanted a pirate game. I just don't see it doing that well.

 

[seiki]

I will easily say Anthem.

 

[Socrates]

Ubisoft's Skull and Bones.

All they had to do was make some tweaks to AC4 land combat and copy/paste the naval stuff. Instead they completely cut out land combat + exploration (and made it a multiplayer experience?). Sucks because it could have been a big hit too

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Agreed. I wish they had just made a non-AC pirate game.

 

[Aldi]

Based on hype alone I'm going to say spiderman. It will be decent, but nowhere near the quality as the hype surrounding it.

Crackdown 3 is also destined to fail and I'd be suprised if it's a good title.

Edit: this is purely on quality as I think both games will sell well.

 

[Chaos2Frozen]

I love Ubi and appreciate the risks they take but Skull & Bones isn't exactly what we asked for when we wanted a pirate game. I just don't see it doing that well.

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Man I hope this doesn't flop, Ubisoft Singapore is the team doing this game and I would hate if their first major new IP sucked.

Gotta represent the homeland!

 

[Triggerhappytel]

I am gonna be a bit controversial and say The Crew 2, I seriously saw nobody talking about it.

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Nobody on Gaf talked about The Crew 1 either, but it still sold over 2 million copies. The Crew 2 will be fine regardless of how uninterested this forum may be in it.

 

[Magic Mushroom]

Forums are often really bad at predicting flops and hits. Before the start of this gen, many people thought the PS4 would flop instead of becoming the beast it is today, and last year I think Horizon was the big winner on the other place. It went on to become a huge commercial and critical succes.

To see people mentiong games like God of War and Spider-Man is crazy to me. These will sell millions of copies and probably get good reviews as well.

 

[Hippopuncher12]

Crackdown would be my guess.

 

[demosthenes]

PUBG on XBOX, I will be so bold to say.

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It's already sold over a million copies. Not a very good guess there.

 

[Monkey Business]

I'll go for State of Decay 2. I know sweet FA about the game and I feel I'm not alone on this.

 

[Rose Red]

Got to be Dreams and Sea of Thieves since those two look interesting and unique. That's the formula for failure.

Shenmue 3 is not going to sell to anyone outside of the kickstarty crowd. It's a relic and I say this as someone who collected stupid toys and drove forklift around the harbor.

 

[Deleted member 3815]

I think for me personally the PS4 Spider-Man game will be a flop for me as I wasn't impressed from what I saw from the game play footage what with the QTE and the game being an Arkham clone but Batman swapped out for Spider-Man. I also strongly suspect that the Peter Parker section will be walking simulators do the game can do its story dump.

 

[JusticeBolt]

Microsoft: Sea of thieves , Crackdown 3
Sony: Dreams
Others: kingdom come deliverence, Lost Sphear,Anthem(They won't reach sales expectations)

 

[Hindle]

Crackdown 3 I just can not see having that huge of a budget. The game is being handled by multiple contractors, outsourced basically.

And the game only started full development in the last two years.

Throw in expansions and DLC that can be made using the assets, and I think it will be profitable.

 

[Deleted member 19813]

It's already sold over a million copies. Not a very good guess there.

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I've already said my piece of this.

 

[MlbGeo]

The Kirby and Yoshi games coming to switch are going to be total failures.

 

[PogiJones]

Their

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Poe's law at work, but

They're*

 

[impact]

The Kirby and Yoshi games coming to switch are going to be total failures.

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No fucking chance. A lame ass no content game like ARMS sold over a million copies pretty fast and that was only a couple months into the Switch with a really low userbase.

First party Nintendo isn't gonna flop, the dedicated fans fucking shower in that shit.

 

[Irrotational]

Their

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They're

Come on, if you're going to correct, at least do it right :)

 

[Geoff]

It's difficult to know how to gauge the size of a potential flop...both Sea of Thieves and Crackdown are barely AAA games, it's only because if their strategic importance to MS that they seem to have been elevated to massive game status. Crackdown was never going to be huge but it definitely looks creaky. It was supposed to be a showcase for the POWER OF TEH CLOUD (yes, really) but now the POTC seems old hat and almost laughable...As for Sea of Thieves, I hope it does well out of respect for Rare but it's kind of hard to see how it's going to work and the look they have gone for seems to be a really bad fit for Xbox.

Shenmue 3. I have backed this but I really have no expectations, does this count as flop? It's an indie game really. Spider-man has been mentioned, I never understood why people were so keen on this in the first place but they do seem keen so...

Also is Dreams really flop worthy even if it doesn't do well?