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"We are confident we can reach our goal of 20 million units for Switch", says Reggie; Pachter disagrees and says they will fall slightly short
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The debate as to whether they will ship 20 million or not is pointless imo. They'll hit their target for hardware and exceed it for software.
The real question is how much Nintendo can grow its dedicated console business in the next fiscal year and beyond. The main drivers being software pipeline and hardware pricing/new models.
The real question is how much Nintendo can grow its dedicated console business in the next fiscal year and beyond. The main drivers being software pipeline and hardware pricing/new models.
Nintendo are the masters of artificial scarcity, except when there's plentiful stock. Then they're the masters of channel stuffing.
Lmao
What's the highest a console has shipped in a fiscal year? Nintendo would easily eclipse 20 million next fiscal year it looks like.
Could totally be the case that around Smash launch some stores temporarily ran out of stock, yeah. But there's no such thing as a nationwide stock issue currently
There'll be quite a few people with Christmas money and gift cards who'll be buying in January, not to mention people trading in their Christmas games they've finished.
Of course they did, fiscal reports and forecasts always talk about shipments
You're right that in the long run it doesn't matter, like at all. But it's become such a sticking point for I think a few reasons.
1) It showed an incredible confidence at the beginning of the year which was not at all reflected in the release schedule for the majority of the year. For much of 2018 people were pretty perplexed about this goal because it didn't make much sense with what they were releasing, up until now.
2) It countered a narrative that sales were slowing down. A lot of people were expecting Switch sales to fall in year two, not increase by 30%. Obviously those predictions weren't very sound because successful consoles almost never sell less in year two but nonetheless this forecast challenged those narratives and then some.
3) It would position the Switch as a faster seller than the PS4, which a lot of people have been doubting for a long time. Obviously the skewed launch dates make the comparison kinda difficult at this stage but keeping pace with the PS4 in terms of hardware is not something anyone at all was expecting before the Switch launched.
So yeah, software, digital and subscription growth is way more important to Nintendo in the long run but the hardware goal has become a huge topic of discussion here for these reasons.
I disagree that they deserve it. From my perspective, 2018 was a mostly empty lineup, relying on old ports and conservative releases for 10 months out of 12; and with near to nothing for people into single player games.
For me, they do not deserve to even beat what they sold in 2017 (though I'm perfectly aware that they're gonna smash that number).
For Wii it was 25.95m and for DS it was 31.18m.
Ultimately though the main driver of dedicated console business growth for Nintendo will be its first party title output + focus on digital games and services.
He's basing his prediction on the stock price? Wow. He's a lot dumber than I realized. Or just a whole lot lazier when it comes to Nintendo analysis.
As to Reggie's comment: I never really thought about the post Christmas shopping period as being so important, but it makes sense to do a push when people suddenly come into money or want to do exchanges. Certainly explains the thought process behind NSMBU releasing when it does as opposed to pre-Christmas. We might get another Direct right before its launch with some more info.
As to Reggie's comment: I never really thought about the post Christmas shopping period as being so important, but it makes sense to do a push when people suddenly come into money or want to do exchanges. Certainly explains the thought process behind NSMBU releasing when it does as opposed to pre-Christmas. We might get another Direct right before its launch with some more info.
That's not enough. That's a remaster and last two months of the fiscal year are still without a major launch. I think Nintendo still has some surprises to be revealed. I predict one of the NEW first party games are slated for Q1 release (my guess is Yoshi for March). I also expect some shocking third party releases. We already have Tales of Vesperia and Saints Row The Third for early next year. Maybe an Assassin's Creed collection? Or finally the GTAV port everyone's waiting for? We'll see. But more surprising third party software, more Switch gets impossible audience.
I'm not super into the law lingo, but I'm going to bet they'll hit 20 million just because that could land Reggie in serious legal hot water if not. If he's doubling down on 20 million and they fall short by 3 or 4 million, couldn't investors sue him? (Kinda similar to the recent Elon Musk thing)
I think they should have a good holiday thanks to smash and pokemon, but I wouldnt' say they did their best/"deserve it".
A lot of software was pushed to next year, their line up for the year lacked weight until very recently, and they haven't been very competitive with pricing
Nintendo are the masters of artificial scarcity, except when there's plentiful stock. Then they're the masters of channel stuffing.
LMAO. Perfect.
Nowhere is he (or anyone at Nintendo) guaranteeing that they will hit that number. You can't sue a company or executive for failing to meet a forecast.
Well I guess you can try to but you won't succeed.
This risks people thinking it's a brand-new game. Bad idea.
It's Fosko. The source is his ass.
This. Especially after the inevitable announcements from Sony and Microsoft of the new generation of console. Nintendo needs to reveal big announcements or will be overshadowed.
I do agree we're gonna see some surprises for Feb-March but NSMBUDX is not just a "remaster" in terms of sales talk when you see what Mario Kart 8 Deluxe did. It's going to be a very successful title selling a lot of software and a good amount of hardware.
Oh I know, I just want to see what he comes up with lol.
So many people on Resetera have an irrational hatred for Pachter. 16m is too low, bc North American sales alone result in a YoY increase. However, it's not wild to predict that they'll fall short of their 20m target while maintaining momentum. That's exactly the type of prediction one would've expected Nintendo to make, which would allow them to boast when they beat their target.
Nintendo has done themselves zero favors predicting 20m with zero (reliable) major releases until November, and I will never understand why a traditionally conservative company went full Resetera poster.
Nintendo has done themselves zero favors predicting 20m with zero (reliable) major releases until November, and I will never understand why a traditionally conservative company went full Resetera poster.
In other words nobody should pay much attention to Pachter? Nintendo will have to continue to push beyond the Nintendo fans and gain more third party support. I can see a revision in hardware next year to try and boost sales with a $50 permanent drop on the current model.
While you might have been wrong that it's sold out everywhere, it's crazy to see how well it's doing on Amazon right now. Nintendo hardware is killing it... Switch R/B, then Switch Grey, then NES Classic, then SNES Classic then finally PS4.
PS Classic isn't even in the top 100 video game related items sold on Amazon... lol
The prevailing theory is that Fire Emblem and Yoshi were originally meant to launch this year, which would have resulted in a better paced release schedule. And they expected Labo to perform a bit better than it did.
Again that's just a theory but I think it explains their confidence fairly well. They still might hit it but it would've been a lot easier with a better paced release schedule.
That was because he didn't, he said they were "tracking" to do so, to put things into perspective. He even mentioned them being in good shape if they sell 15. He's wrong sometimes, but he ain't dumb. Era just jumped on that, cause in the end he said they weren't making 20 and he was right... maybe.
You keep saying that, Skittz, but if we pick a comparison point that is more favourable for PS4 in terms of number of holidays (larger or equal) and time on the market, and then can show that Switch is ahead of PS4 despite the comparison favouring PS4, then we have a fair comparison showing that Switch is selling faster than PS4.
We can compare the following two data points:
PS4 as of the end of December 2015 = 37.7M
Switch as of the end of March 2019 = 37.8M (this is assuming they hit their 20M forecast)
For this comparison point, PS4 has had 2 full holidays, and has been on the market for 2 years and 1.5 months. Switch, on the other hand, has 2 full holidays, and has been on the market for 2 years and 1 months. So, the comparison favours PS4 yet the Switch would have shipped more units, meaning that Switch is selling faster than PS4.
Of course, it's the long term that matters when comparing sales: PS4 will outsell the Wii easily despite having been behind for the longest time, and all of that is due to the longevity of the PS4. If Switch can't keep itself relevant on the market for longer than 5 years, then it will inevitably falter when compared to the PS4. What's more, software sales are even more important than hardware sales, so in the end this hardware race is not as significant as they seem on forums like this one.
No doubt about it, but it won't have effect that Smash and Let's Go had. Switch shouldn't have any month without a major release, that would kill its momentum instantly. February and March don't have anything worthwhile as of now, there need to be announcements for that time period asap. Nsmb just can't cover for three whole months.
Software delays and Labo underperforming probably put a speed bump in the road but they are still confident Holiday 2018 can pull them through. Even if it doesn't hit that 20 million, they will get close. If Reggie is still saying they will hit the 20 million, he's seeing numbers we don't see yet and he knows what's coming in Q1 2019. I'd believe him over Pachter at this point.
Are people betting their house for, or against, this milestone? I see many stipulations on what should count, what shouldn't count, even if there is cold hard stats staring people in the face. I feels like the internet is going to break, regardless of the outcome, once Nintendo announces their numbers.
Revenue for 2019 will surely be up significantly. The switch is going to sell more HW (pricing remains to be seen) and far more SW.
Surely Nintendo will continue to push further into the digital landscape. Selling more digitally and increasing the amount of people paying for online should be a priority. They can't keep neglecting this space.
Absolute insanity to think they were pulling these sort of numbers at the same time. I wonder if we'll ever see a console come anywhere close to those numbers. The DS just looks untouchable.
Maybe they made that forecast because they believed they could make? There is every chance they may end up selling 20 million despite quite a bit of SW being delayed (both 1st and 3rd party). If they end up making their forecast I'm not not sure what the problem is.
OP
OP
Really? Is that the hourly list or the annual one? Anecdotal again, but I do know a fair few people who are interested in picking one up (PS Classic, I mean, to be clear)
iirc he did correctly call the Wii U failing and the Switch doing great at launch on the back of BotW
This thread just reminded me how crazy Pachter's initial forecast was at 8 million units.
As Zhuge said, it'll be more interesting on how Nintendo plans to keep this momentum going in Switch's third year.
2nd year was all about Pokemon and Smash in holidays.
3rd year hopefully will have more spread out notable releases like in 1st year.
As Zhuge said, it'll be more interesting on how Nintendo plans to keep this momentum going in Switch's third year.
2nd year was all about Pokemon and Smash in holidays.
3rd year hopefully will have more spread out notable releases like in 1st year.
So far Nintendo is looking pretty good on first party with huge titles like Animal Crossing and gen 8 Pokémon. Animal Crossing helps with a whole different demographic. They have their second tier games like Luigi's Mansion 3, Fire Emblem, Yoshi's Crafted World, etc. Of course there's other titles and unannounced 2019 titles.
I don't think you should discount a hardware revision either. Be it a Switch Pro or a Switch Lite- that can push hardware sales and combine that with a possible price drop of the OG Switch.