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Warren takes the lead in RealClearPolitics' polling aggregate of the Democratic primary
- Thread starter Aaron
- Start date
Yeah, but AFAIK no one else is aggregating the primary polls with the level of detail they are.
Because she's a deeply bad person with a contentious history she refuses to appropriately explain and no actual guiding principle behind her candidacy besides last-century idpol "she looks good on paper" bullshit?
She has benefited the most from the fake Biden "controversy" and, cynically, Sanders' heart attack.
The question is if those factors are causing a short-term boost, or a trend that will last to next year.
The question is if those factors are causing a short-term boost, or a trend that will last to next year.
The old guard is just too strong. I wonder if Harris, Buttigieg, and Beto will have more luck in a future cycle.
Her steady rise started long before Bernie's health scare. This is more a product of smart campaigning and more don't knows and Harris/booty people coming over
Edit: I'd add we haven't seen anything to indicate there's anything like a "short term bump" in her numbers. They've done nothing but go up for six months
She did really good at the start of the debates which gave her a huge boost. But after that she was pretty bad at them.
I will cry tears of pure fucking joy if she manages to pull this off and go all the way.
If Trump gets to the debates and pulls that shark circling shit he did with Clinton I got a feeling Liz will tell him to back off.
If Trump gets to the debates and pulls that shark circling shit he did with Clinton I got a feeling Liz will tell him to back off.
Oh I agree it started before the heart attack, but I think it's certainly a factor that has helped cement/amplify the change.
See above.
It will have more legs than it should but most of Wohl's antics fizzle out before really catching on all that much. My hot take. Though, troublingly, Newsweek picked up the story and covered it pretty straight (even though it was discrediting the accuser), and Trump hasn't started tweeting about it yet which always fans the flames.
She'd be a much better President than all 3 of them.
It looks as though she may have gotten a point or two but I'm not sure it's anything more than that. Moving forward though anyone but the die hards are likely to coalesce behind her when she looks to be the front runner and that will shore her numbers up even more
The Marine story is patently ridiculous and no matter who covers it or how much trump says about it, it will not go anywhere
You don't think a near 80 year old having a heat attack, and that same candidate dropping in the polls over the last two weeks, are related?
Or that Bernie dropping and Warren rising are related, despite all the evidence that Dem voters see those two as being in the same "lane" meaning they're fighting over the exact same voters in what is a zero sum game? Just look at both lines over the last two weeks.
So "can we not" what exactly, discuss something that is 100% relevant to the subject of this thread?
Of course. The only way she wins is by becoming the consensus "not Biden" candidate.
Which she has a very good shot at.
There doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence that says that though. It's convenient timing for her to overtake Biden but Biden has been hit over and over for stupid shit, had a horrible debate and suffered fundraising issues. And we've known for a while that Sanders voters second choice is largely Biden and not Warren so his heart attack thing, aside from not visibly moving the needle, wouldn't make a lot of sense.
Really it's just good campaigning and charisma at this point. She came out with a ton of plans and hard work.
Yeah no one disagrees with this, but the joke itself was in bad taste
Yeah, but they can't lie about poll numbers, and they are pretty good at aggregating everything.
Maybe if you didn't phrase it like a shitty fucking joke at the expense of someone who had a heart attack, we could discuss it just fine.
This isn't true though. Most demographics show Biden and Sanders fighting for more similar voters. Warren's voters are more similar to Harris and Buttigieg's.
Apologies for that, it may be true but in bad taste.
I have deleted it as I don't want one bad joke to derail the thread...
I mean, Biden having problems at the same time Sanders is having problems actually makes sense that departing Biden voters might not move to Sanders, even if he had previously been their second choice.
But yeah, cross tabs would be helpful, and like I said she was already on the rise when these things happened.
I think they meant can we not be tacky, but I'm sure you already know.
Thank god her advisors vetoed her idea to have all of her underwear tested to prove there was none of the marine's DNA on them.
We could do a hell of a lot worse than Elizabeth Warren as the first female president. She's been my second choice since she announced. She's not a perfect candidate but she's better than the non-Bernie remainer of the field, and sets the stage for someone even further left after 8 years.
Classless.
Classless.
I'm saying the issue isn't Trump's attack. It's everything else around Biden. The slide started prior. Poor 3rd quarter fundraising indicates an issue before the Ukraine stuff. I do think that means the voters being siphoned off are going in part to Warren though the brunt of her gain might be on Harris' loss.
Losing two Dem senators from states with Republican governors so no progressive legislation is passed for the next decade?
Ah, OK.
You could be right, or Trump's attacks have helped to enhance other issues that started to weaken Biden's standing. It certainly hasn't helped, as could conceivably happen if the Dem voting base decided to rally to Biden in an attempt to rebuff Trump.
If there's two states where we can afford to lose them, Its MA & VT.
The likelihood of getting two more progressives in is likely. This isn't a Beto/Texas thing.
Massachusetts requires special election to replace senator, so Warren wouldn't be replaced by a Republican.
Biden's response to the controversy has been pretty meek overall. As you said, he could have rallied the democrats on this issue. I mean, hell, it's THE issue they're going to impeach Trump on, but it feels like he disappeared. He's being too conservative and safe with it.
There would be special elections in both states in a matter of months. While VT is weird I still don't think either would end up with GOP senators. That said there's absolutely no tactical reason to have an older VP with essentially the excat platform. It would be dumb and thankfully there's no chance of it happening
Buy the dips on Warren, Biden in a descending triangle that will cause a violent crash once break of support
Not really hidden, but yeah it was founded by two conservatives back in the late 90s, early 2000s.
There's not a lot written about them but they're unabashedly conservatives of the Neocon mold:
(this is from an article in 2001, one of the only bios of the founders I could find in ~30 seconds)
Still, their poll aggregates are just aggregates of other mainstream polls and they're usually not biased in what they aggregate. They aggregate all of th emajor mainstream polls and have been a pretty consistent resource without politicizing the poll collection.
That's the problem with running a campaign under the assumption it's yours to lose. It makes you more concerned with not losing support, instead of growing the support you have.
Not really? Any one of them would beat Trump in a general election, I was just commenting that Warren is currently stronger this cycle and maybe by this time around next time the younger candidates will have more teeth to compete in the primary. Harris got close and then.....ehhhh.