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Warren takes the lead in RealClearPolitics' polling aggregate of the Democratic primary

Aaron

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
After Quinnipiac released a poll today showing Warren ahead of Biden nationally by three points (29-26), RealClearPolitics' polling aggregate bumped Warren into the lead, ever so slightly:

o1uQTaC.png


Link to the aggregate

Thought it'd be threadworthy given that Biden is still the perceived frontrunner, but this is the first time anyone has overtaken him in polls of the national primary.

Make a plan to lock this thread if old
 

Deleted member 9972

User requested account closure
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Oct 27, 2017
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Prediction markets have had Warren more likely to win by Biden by a 2:1 ratio for the past month, so I don't think Biden should be thought of as the perceived frontrunner anymore. That said, prediction markets have been grossly underestimating Biden's chances for awhile now, and these are the same markets that still think Yang has a 10% chance of winning.
 
modestb

modestb

Alt-Account
Banned
Jan 24, 2019
1,126
She's not my #1 but I'd be delighted to vote for her, and certainly over Biden. This is great news, I hope the gap widens.
 
Christian

Christian

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,636
It's okay, guys, Yang will have more "points" than Warren when all is said and done!
 
fracas

fracas

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,646
Man I hope she gets the nom

I seriously doubt the student loan debt forgiveness will actually happen but it's nice to dream
 

Deleted member 11637

Oct 27, 2017
18,204
WTF is a "Messam"?

(nvm don't care)
 
El Bombastico

El Bombastico

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
36,041
Trump going down for trying to get dirt on somehow who doesn't even become the Democratic nom will put a smile on my face for years...
 
PawPrints

PawPrints

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Oct 30, 2017
2,442
hopefully once every other candidate drops out, she will suck up the rest of those votes and put her over the top
 
RailWays

RailWays

One Winged Slayer
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Oct 25, 2017
15,674
So the streams finally crossed.
Go Warren! How I'd love the primary to come down to her and Bernie instead.
 
Huncho_Houdini

Huncho_Houdini

Member
Dec 31, 2017
7,097
Let's keep this going, seriously. She would do wonders for this country if elected. Or at the very least, do some much needed repair. One can only hope.
 
KtotheRoc

KtotheRoc

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
56,639
I hope she is the nominee, and that she becomes President. News like this gives me hope.
 
OP
OP
Aaron

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
mnz said:
Is there something specific that has her rising so quickly?
Click to expand...
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Hard work, mostly - she's been steadily gaining as opposed to most candidates who might have had short bursts but have been otherwise stable.

I think her rise has also created a feedback loop where people see she's catching up or leading in some polls, so they pay more attention to her campaign and it draws in new supporters. Biden and Sanders were the only candidates to start out with 100% name recognition, so it's only natural Warren had room to grow as people got to know her.
 
ibyea

ibyea

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,163
After Bernie disappointed me with the no repeal filibuster crap, I am all on board the Warren train. Also, rich assholes are more scared of her because she knows more about financial regulations. I am hoping she will be the president that will give 0 inch to Republican bullshit.
 
jph139

jph139

One Winged Slayer
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Oct 25, 2017
14,378
I'm all in for Liz. Lizzie. Big L. The Lizard Queen.

It'll be nice to get our most progressive president ever in the White House (and first woman to boot). Boy, that'll be a good night.
 
Kirblar

Kirblar

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Oct 25, 2017
30,744
TheChocoboCadet said:
Prediction markets have had Warren more likely to win by Biden by a 2:1 ratio for the past month, so I don't think Biden should be thought of as the perceived frontrunner anymore. That said, prediction markets have been grossly underestimating Biden's chances for awhile now, and these are the same markets that still think Yang has a 10% chance of winning.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
The term "smart money" is accurate here. The underlying crosstab data has shown for a few months that Warren has been best positioned to win, and the surge isn't surprising - she's the candidate most broadly acceptable to the party as a whole, aka a coalition candidate.
mnz said:
Is there something specific that has her rising so quickly?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Pete/Harris supporters jumping I think is a big part of this. Warren has had virtual votes on the board w/ them turning into actual votes as she's by far the #1 second choice pick for those candidates' supporters.
 
Apple

Apple

Member
Oct 27, 2017
491
I wonder what her ceiling is. She's seems to be the only candidate with a clear trendline over time, having risen straight from 5% to 25% over the past 6-months while everyone else has generally remained the same.
 
uncelestial

uncelestial

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,060
San Francisco, CA, USA
Looks like she's been slowly siphoning off the Harris support (and catching a few Biden fans as they look elsewhere and he underperforms), and just got a big boost after Bernie's health event.
 
Ziltoidia 9

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,141
Better than anyone else. I've a long time bernie supporter (even before 2016) and if she gets it, I'd be insanely happy.
 
Feep

Feep

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Oct 25, 2017
4,602
I would be the most proud to vote for Elizabeth Warren of any single person I have ever voted for.
 

Interested Observer

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,654
Just had a look at the Betfair Exchange which is an unbiased (as in, there's no bookmaker margin built in) take on what the betting markets think. Trump is 2.4 and Warren is 3.9. I would have thought those are horrendous odds for Trump, it means the market thinks he has around a 40% chance of winning the election. This seems higher than you'd like but he's the incumbent and he doesn't have an opponent yet, if he has a 40% chance of winning then the field is the favourite. This is dreadful for an incumbent.

Warren is 3.8 which means the market thinks she has around a 25% chance of winning, but you have to keep in mind she has to win the primary AND win the election. Biden is 9.6 so he's miles behind Warren. If she won the primary her odds of winning the election would skyrocket obviously.

I'm not from the US so can't vote but would be 100% behind Warren if I could. She appears to me to be intelligent and honest, doesn't hold any views that I think are totally incompatible with mine, and she just seems like a decent person.
 
Geist

Geist

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Oct 25, 2017
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Can't wait to see the new hot takes from millionaires and billionaires "warning" Democrats about what will happen if we nominate Warren.
 
OP
OP
Aaron

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Apple said:
I wonder what her ceiling is. She's seems to be the only candidate with a clear trendline over time, having risen straight from 5% to 25% over the past 6-months while everyone else has generally remained the same.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Still some undecided (10% "someone else," "don't know" or "undecided" in the new Quinnipiac poll) that could shuffle over to her, but I think she could also sponge up some decent support from Harris and Buttigieg as they continue fading, as well as some of the lesser Bernie diehards.

It's quickly become Biden vs. Warren, people will start coalescing accordingly.
 
Servbot24

Servbot24

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
43,112
I can't believe it. I've been wanting her as President for several years and now there's a pretty decent chance it could happen.
 
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