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WaPo: Study estimates 24 [US] states still have uncontrolled coronavirus spread

WedgeX

WedgeX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,168
The coronavirus may still be spreading at epidemic rates in 24 states, particularly in the South and Midwest, according to new research that highlights the risk of a second wave of infections in places that reopen too quickly or without sufficient precautions.
Researchers at Imperial College London created a model that incorporates cellphone data showing that people sharply reduced their movements after stay-at-home orders were broadly imposed in March. With restrictions now easing and mobility increasing with the approach of Memorial Day and the unofficial start of summer, the researchers developed an estimate of viral spread as of May 17.
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The Imperial College researchers estimated the virus's reproduction number, known as R0, or R naught. This is the average number of infections generated by each infected person in a vulnerable population. The researchers found the reproduction number has dropped below 1 in the District and 26 states. In those places, as of May 17, the epidemic was waning.
In 24 states, however, the model shows a reproduction number over 1. Texas tops the list, followed by Arizona, Illinois, Colorado, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa, Alabama and Wisconsin.
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When the R naught is below 1, it means the virus is hitting a lot of dead ends as it infects people. Someone who is infected but who follows social distancing rules or stays quarantined until recovering has a good chance of not infecting anyone else. The challenge is finding a way to reopen the economy with sufficient care to prevent the reproduction number from going over 1.
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Political leaders have traded executive orders for appeals to individual responsibility and judgment. Even as they touted reopening water parks and beaches, some governors told their citizens not to enjoy their new freedoms too much.




In a hotspot in western Iowa, "families need to make their own decisions," said Matthew A. Ung, chair of Woodbury County's board of supervisors. "You don't have to act one way or another because of what the government says," he said. "Look out for you and your family."
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R1 chart - ranked top to bottom from lowest [good] to highest [bad]. The triangles are the current R1, with the circles the estimates from back in March.

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Texas is not looking good.

The study has some interesting time series graphs of movement in states, grouped by region, too.

Article:

Report:

Stay safe.
 
ejoshua

ejoshua

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,402
Georgia looks like it's doing okay, and while I'm so glad that the citizens (hi Speezy) are safe; Kemp's inadequacy will be forgotten by the strength of its local populations and governments.
 
Blader

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,605
Of fucking course MA is the only problem child state in the whole Northeast. What are we doing wrong?!
 
pirata

pirata

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,410
Austin's bar and restaurant closures expired today. Shit is going to get real, real bad.

But the state government wants us all to know that their stock portfolios are far more valuable than our lives. Sacrifice yourself to appease the dread god Nasdaq!
 
SpottieO

SpottieO

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,607
pirata said:
Austin's bar and restaurant closures expired today. Shit is going to get real, real bad.

But the state government wants us all to know that their stock portfolios are far more valuable than our lives. Sacrifice yourself to appease the dread god Nasdaq!
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Bars in Texas opened up at midnight last night I think? I saw photos of bars with lines of people waiting to go in at midnight last night.
 
Znazzy

Znazzy

Member
Aug 27, 2018
1,239
I'm legitimately surprised by Ohio. I feel like we've been doing a great job of flattening the curve. Though, when bars opened back up it was a complete shit show.
 
BLEEN

BLEEN

Member
Oct 27, 2017
21,871
Jersey is like number two in some sort of way. Jesus
Our unemployment situation is fucking, well the actual tech to deal with it digitally (analog?) is 40 years old
I don't even understand this chart. But Jersey had a spike?

Edit* I am part of two private FB unemployment page things and people are pissed as fuck, like wanting to switch to GOP mad lmao
 
OP
OP
WedgeX

WedgeX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,168
teruterubozu said:
And to think Pence said we'd have this all behind us by Memorial Day.
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Oh God I don't even remember all the predictions now.

Trump recently projected -- without any evidence -- that the outbreak would dissipate enough by Easter, on April 12, to allow people to pack church pews. He sharply reversed from that rosy assessment on Sunday, when he said those recommendations should say in place at least through the end of April.
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"We believe we're in a much better place by June the 1st," Pence said. "If every American will put these guidelines into practice, if we all continue to do our part, we really do believe that by Memorial Day weekend or by early summer ... we can be through the hardest part of this."
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abcnews.go.com

Vice President Mike Pence asks Americans not to attend church services of more than 10 people

Vice President Mike Pence told "Nightline" anchor Byron Pitts on Wednesday that Americans should not attend church services of more than 10 people amid coronavirus.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
GuitarGuruu

GuitarGuruu

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,474
Wisconsin pretty high on that list, shit ton of people out nightly since restrictions lifted. Shoulder to shoulder no safe restrictions in place, buckle up folks.
 
Hero_of_the_Day

Hero_of_the_Day

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
17,326
Kemal86 said:
Yeah I live over in East Urbana and the entire neighborhood was out today. And of course UIUC is talking big about having all 45k students back on site in August.
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That is fucking nuts.

I went to the pizza but by the Savoy theater today, cause I couldn't pass up a free medium pizza. That whole shopping area was seriously fucking packed. Luckily it does seem like most people here are wearing masks at least. Though when I went the the Savoy Walmart a couple of weeks ago, it was insane how many employees had their masks pulled down below their noses.
 
shoptroll

shoptroll

Member
May 29, 2018
3,680
Blader said:
Of fucking course MA is the only problem child state in the whole Northeast. What are we doing wrong?!
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We got hit next hardest after NYC. Last I heard Lawrence was still having trouble getting stuff under control.

Edit: huh CA has the same color too. Weird.
 
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Zyrokai

Zyrokai

Member
Nov 1, 2017
4,244
Columbus, Ohio
Znazzy said:
I'm legitimately surprised by Ohio. I feel like we've been doing a great job of flattening the curve. Though, when bars opened back up it was a complete shit show.
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Same.....what actually happened? We were literally the first state to close schools and restaurants. We literally flattened the curve and I thought we were killing it???

And we just reopened things last week _sorta_

so...like ....I dunno.
 
Gartooth

Gartooth

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,440
Happy to see Michigan is getting it under control, and that our governor extended the stay at home order through June 12th to help keep it that way. (If I have it right, its to push down infection rates in mid and west Michigan) I feel very uneasy seeing the bordering Midwest states not having this contained though...
 
Hero_of_the_Day

Hero_of_the_Day

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
17,326
piratepwnsninja said:
Talking to a friend there, I think the spike was because of the meatpacking plant in Rantoul. Plus, Urbana started free drive-thru testing two days ago, I think?
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Yeah, that meat packing plant in rantoul is crazy. 137 cases in Rantoul. I think it was literally at 2 when the meat place started rolling in.

Takes 1-3 days for results, I think. So the testing at the mall that started a couple of days ago probably isn't been seen yet really.
 
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