If they can increase turnout, yes. It's what the GOP fears most, which is why they work so hard on voter suppression.
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WaPo opinion piece: Joe Biden is the candidate of Other People. Is that enough?
- Thread starter Saucycarpdog
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If they can increase turnout, yes. It's what the GOP fears most, which is why they work so hard on voter suppression.
I understand that Biden is the front runner and I understand that there are polls that show match ups and hes ahead in those too but the train of thought is that the General is not the primary and once republicans focus energy on a single candidate the effectiveness that they handle the onslaught matters more at that time. I dont see Biden handling the attacks agains thim as well as Bernie or Liz or anyone really would be able to handle it and I think its enough to cost us the election. Biden will let the narriative slip away form him. It's something primaries can't test because of the nature of primaries. The only thing that gives me solace is perhaps his AA support is so unbreakable that none of that matters but i would much rather run the best campaign we can instead.
I mean, it's pretty clear what candidate the GOP fears the most right now.
who is the "we" in that sentence, i'm not sure anyone here is working the biden campaign, the article itself is expressing confusion and skepticism wrt biden's consistent lead, and basically every poster has other candidates they prefer
Negative partisanship is probably going to drive turnout more than anything to do with our nominee, honestly.
2018 didn't see record turnout in a midterm because everyone was high on sunshine and farts.
Anecdotally I know several people who didn't vote in 2016, or wrote someone in or voted third party etc. who've said they'll vote for Biden if they have to next year, anything to get rid of Trump.
I don't want Biden but if he is the nominee, I don't think you'll see nearly as many left-leaning voters sit out the election because their porridge isn't just right like they did in 2016.
It's already happening to some degree. Anecdotally I know a few people who don't vote that are coming out for Sanders, not that anecdotal evidence is that important. I call it the secret sauce because I think there's other paths to victory without dipping into the non-voter block. But yeah, if he can get even a small chunk of then non-voting block, the winning Senate will look a lot more plausible.
In the weapon triangle of politics, Joseph Biden is a Silver Sword from Fire Emblem Fates: Shitty and unbreakable
And they won't work harder and be given more support with a progressive in office?
Why does the GOP fear Biden the most right now?
It's perfectly reasonable to fear that neither Bernie nor Warren could survive attacks using their own positions never mind any scandals or problems that might exist in their histories.
Theres so many reasons as to why they're unreliable. Mainly cause politicians don't do much for them.
While old at least Bernie is pushing force policies that will benefit young people tremendously, which is what should happen.
He's polling best head to head against Trump. They think he can beat Trump.
So I guess everyone is wrong and the real answer to government gridlock is moving further left. Because magic.
The answer to gridlock is getting more people to vote. Not working with the GOP but overwhelming them and making them powerless.
In Alabama and Mississippi and Wyoming and ? Why are candidates who can't even motivate enough people for them to lead in polling going to turn red states blue? Why would the people who traditionally react by moving further right magically move left?
...that's not possible in our Republic. Unless we get rid of all those pesky elections....
Hmm I dunno. I think the country is changing and quite rapidly. What would have seemed impossible even a few years ago will become even probable if people who don't usually vote come out for elections.
I mean, it'd also be different if Jesus himself ran as an independent. I'm not sure that's any less likely.
There aren't enough of those voters to make the GOP powerless, even if every non-voter were a progressive. Which they absolutely are not.
That's not what it means to be perceived as an outsider. What people don't like about establishment or insiders is the corruption and status quo history. Who was further left? Bernie or Hillary? Bernie was. Who is furthest left this time? Bernie, Warren, Biden, Yang, Steyer, Pete, Kamala, or Booker? Bernie is. Point proven.
This is terrible and it just shows how out of touch you are with perception of what an insider or outsider is. Repeating the same thing when those problems are still present does show conviction. I'm sorry, but it does. If we have a climate change problem that isn't getting solved, and Bernie is seen saying we need to combat climate change 30 years ago, it shows that he's not part of the problem because he's been wanting to get shit done on climate change while nothing was getting done. It shows that he had an outsider opinion because nobody was taking it seriously.
When Bernie is shown sticking up for gay members of the military, it shows that even when it wasn't popular, he was sticking up for the gay community. This makes him an outsider. When Bernie calls out US imperialism for decades when we've clearly showed a bipartisan effort to increase our hegemonic influence through war, Bernie gets perceived as an outsider.
If Bernie has been wanting a single payer health care system for decades, even though he compromised, and he did compromise, it shows that he's an outsider because he's clearly been acknowledging what's best for the people and not what's best for the health insurance industry. Yes, I'm sorry, but the compromise doesn't detract from that image.
Bernie not afraid to call out dems is another part of this outsider perception, and is why many have admitted to not liking about Bernie. The "he's not a real democrat" is literally a line said by many democrats. Yes, that is part of his outsider image also. Similarly, Bernie not accepting donations from billionaires and calling out the military industrial complex, big pharma, etc... all of this adds to his outsider image.
Perception matters. No idea why you think it doesn't. It's the same with Biden who despite having a racist past, gets by just because he was part of the Obama administration.
And yes, this despite all those "well actually Bernie did such and such..." facts.
And yet most of the candidates are running off Bernie's ideas this go around. And although I don't think Bernie is the sole inspiration for this progressive moment, I do think he's the leading figure as of right now. I can't say I'm surprised that AOC, Rashida, Omar, and all the left leaning youtubers are supporting Bernie.
It's clear you don't understand what people hate about DC if you can't sniff out why people think of Bernie in that manner. Were you this blind to perception of an insider that you couldn't see Hillary had that image too? Right or wrong, people want money out of politics, want US to stop regime change wars, want to combat climate change, and want people to be relentless in their support for this kind of progressive platform.
And yes, Bernie is the leader of this movement as of right now. The fact that he voted to keep military industrial complex jobs in his area, the fact that he gets a D rating from NRA and not an F, and despite getting shit on by leftists in the past for his foreign policy don't change that. Bernie has the outsider image due to constantly espousing progressive views and having the best voting record compared to his peers. He's a compromise in a way, no doubt about it, but still the leading figure flaws and all. Just ask the question, who is the furthest left candidate? If it's Bernie then I'm sorry he's going to get the outsider image.
bernie has an outsider image because people are too stupid to see the guy who spent decades voting like a generic democrat, who worked closely with then-first lady hillary clinton in the 90s, and even today refers to former vice president joe biden as a close personal friend isn't actually an outsider
the smartest thing king has ever done is put an I by his name instead of a D because it has given so many people of all political alignments brainworms
Your description of what an outsider is will work just as well for the GOP to call him a 30 year failure of a member of Congress who is now trying to force his anti-American communist ideology unto the Oval Office.
John Kerry wasn't a service-dodging coward, but that's what America thought when the GOP was done with him. Bernie isn't going to get through this clean.
I said it before and I'll say it again, I will vote for Bernie myself but I would also glad vote for Warren as she is a close second for me and has been been for years. If Biden wins the nomination I will vote for him and be done with politics for good. If we can't even get the right candidate elected now after What we've seen with how bad Hilary was and what Obama led to in the White House then clearly our current political system isn't where we should be focused if we want real change. I genuinely believe Biden will lose and while I of course don't want that I just see it happening. I think the only winning combo to beat Trump is Sanders/Warren or vice versa and even that will be a battle, but trump is so stupid I don't think he has a chance in a debate with either of them and I think that's how they win.
I think a lot of people don't realize there isn't just left and right, the middle decides a lot and that is who Joe appeals to. The middle even though they may vote democratic will not vote for someone like Warren or Sanders. They will vote Trump or throw their vote away first. That said I'm leaning Warren/Sanders. I am leaning more towards Sanders these days because of health care.
You're not proving he's not an outsider. It's not due to years in Washington. It's not due to who his friends are. It's due to perception that you'll say things people don't normally say, and advocate for things that haven't been done in a while. If Bernie has that perception, and he does, he's an outsider despite the "well actually he's been there for 30 years" fact.
Which big candidate is the furthest left last election cycle and furthest left this election cycle? Is it not Bernie? Weird that it's true considering Bernie is an insider and is therefore like every other candidate.
Biden is running further to the left of Obama right? Doesn't matter. Biden has been in politics for far longer than Obama, and has a consistent record of being a moderate. None of his views are all that outsider-ish and if he's further to the left of Obama, it's not due to some inherent belief system Biden has always had. It's due to the times changing and him getting dragged left by the times and other politicians. You literally can't dig up a video from the past and show us that he truly believed in something progressive or lefty. We know what he is and he's Republican-lite.
BTW, a lot of times record isn't good enough to shake off a perception. Just look back at Biden. Despite him having a racist past, people associate him with Obama at this point and so therefore cannot be racist to the general electorate. It sucks, but that's the perception working in his favor.
The communist ideology will be branded to anyone that's a democrat. It's best that someone who actually believes what they say to be tackled with that criticism. Pivoting will make you look like you have no conviction and are only there to further your political career (despite this being true for practically everyone). It's the same reason why Kamala came across as weak after she walked back everything time after time.
edit: The never Bernie crowd already considers Bernie to be that. Bernie will just have to use that to his advantage by stating that the establishment didn't want to fundamentally want to change things for the better and so the blame should be pointed at them. Bipartisan effort to get shit done isn't always ideal if the policy is crap.
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From a recent poll
Source: https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/12/20/rel14c.-.economy,.general.election.pdf
When did "conviction" become this thing the American electorate is looking for? Because it's not. Americans don't particularly care if you believe what you're selling, they just care about how well you sell it.
And painting any Democrat being painted as a communist isn't the same thing as actually running as a devout socialist.
Holding your nose and voting is a historically black (or any other marginalized group) pastime. Welcome to the club 👍🏽
Well he's not running as a socialist, he's running as a mislabeled democratic socialist aka a social democrat. And I disagree that it's somehow worse in the eyes of republicans. They're going to attack every candidate as socialist because every candidate is running on more government.
As for the electorate wants, tt depends on demographic. The progressives look at conviction. The outsider perception is binded with conviction. They want somebody who doesn't want to compromise at this point in time (primary).
However, I'm not suggesting that it's the thing the general electorate is looking for specifically. A large portion is obviously just looking for "not Trump" as if Trump is the cause of all bad things in society. A good portion just want civility.
I will say that I feel things are going to slightly shift in favor of a populist like Bernie. Attacks on capitalism is becoming more mainstream than it ever was, but is obviously still not a large enough factor to matter yet. We're already at a point in wealth inequality where people are demanding politicians to not be funded by special interests, and where the media is asking why the rich keep getting attacked. I wouldn't bet on that as a factor compared to the much larger "never Trump" factor.
From a recent poll
Source: https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/12/20/rel14c.-.economy,.general.election.pdf
Yea this fanciful notion about there being a mountain of Independents or Republicans that would switch from Trump to Sanders but not to someone like Biden is just straight up wrong.
Republicans don't matter, this is about independents. And Bernie says he is a socialist. Attacks will inherently work better when no one is disputing them.
I don't disagree with most of the rest of what you say, but it does come down to what I said before. If Bernie will grow the electorate, he can win. If he can't, Biden is stronger with the people we know will vote.
I think it's possible Bernie can pull it off, and frankly for the health of the party that would probably be a better result than Biden winning on a redo of 2016.
But everyone should be aware that betting on an expanded electorate to win an election is a bet that historically has had a very low chance of success.
My current viewpoint basically boils down to vote and advocate for who you want in the primaries, if they do not win the primaries, advocate for their policies and approach in the general, and vote Democrat in the general up and down the ballot.
Also, get involved locally to really push your own political beliefs. It is much easier to locally change your politics than it is anywhere higher up the food chain.
Also, get involved locally to really push your own political beliefs. It is much easier to locally change your politics than it is anywhere higher up the food chain.
I go out in the real world and don't deal with "poles". You listen to what you want.From a recent poll
Source: https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/12/20/rel14c.-.economy,.general.election.pdf
There's no way that Biden wins the presidency. No one wants to vote for a diet Republican, they'd either just vote Republican or someone third party or not at all. Chasing the right is an insane policy when most of America is liberal. We need to go left and hard to have any chance.
Anecdotal evidence can be valuable, just like polling can be valuable. I'm not sure what the problem is.
I will never get over the idea that Joe Biden is a "diet Republican."
It's just....so odd.
John Kerry didn't get through it because he didn't stand up for himself for far too long, and because he came across as wooden or outright phoney too much of the time. Politics isn't really about policy or intellect in the end, it's about emotion, and Kerry never broadcast surety or leadership. Bush's voting base believed in him because whatever his failings, his faith and his affection for the troops seemed genuine.
Bernie's got plenty that can be thrown against him, but nowhere near the amount Trump does so that's whatever. But what's important here is that unlike Kerry, he'll come across as having a spine. And unlike Trump, he'll come across as having a heart.
Or, he'll come across as an extreme and twitchy northeast commie Jew.
John Kerry is an example. The point is the GOP machine can paint anyone in the worst light possible, and Bernie gives them a lot of material to work with.
Debates don't really do much to move the needle. Temporary bounces and then things settle back to where they were before. Unless a massive fuck-up or gaffe is made that dominates the news cycle for a week, they won't decide 2020.
Don't think the piece of shit in the White House will show up to them anyway.
I mean, there's people here who say the same thing about Obama. Not really surprising... obfuscation, purity tests and hyperbole can convince people of anything.
Obama literally described himself as a 1980s moderate republican and loves Reagan
Polling is in no way a perfect indicator, but it's not 100% inaccurate. Are you saying that your anecdotal evidence is 100% accurate for every moderate or independent in the country?
Going to need to see this quote. Heard Obama talk plenty about Reagan and he's certainly torn to shreds his policies and the harm they did to America.
Don't know where this "loves Reagan" stuff comes from.
He said his economic policies would be considered moderate Republican in the 1980s. He said that as a way of pointing out how much things have moved to the right since even Reagan's time as president, not as a way of identifying with the party.
Anyone who read his first book (Dreams From My Father, written in the early 90s before he even got elected to the Illinois legislature) would know he was very critical of Reagan's policies. He saw his presidency as an opportunity to yank the Overton window back to the center/left.
