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Deleted member 3812

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,821
Good, good!!! Very glad to see this WaPo headline, thank you KY-ERA for going out to vote to contribute to this embarrassment of Trump:


Kentucky outcome embarrasses Trump and worries many Republicans ahead of 2020
November 6, 2019

Democrats' claim of victory Tuesday in Kentucky's gubernatorial race, as well as the Democratic takeover of the Virginia state legislature, left Republicans stumbling and increasingly uncertain about their own political fates next year tied to an embattled and unpopular president.

Many allies of President Trump rushed to explain away the poor performance of incumbent Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) as an anomaly, while other GOP veterans expressed alarm about the party's failure in a state where Trump won by nearly 30 percentage points in 2016 — and where he just campaigned this week.

Bevin's attempt to nationalize his cause by stoking conservative grievances about the impeachment process was not enough to overcome his problems nor was Trump's raucous rally for the governor on Monday — raising questions about Trump's political strength as he faces a barrage of challenges and a difficult path to reelection.

The outcome — with Democrat Andy Beshear claiming victory with a lead of several thousand votes and Bevin refusing to concede — underscored how Republicans are struggling to navigate choppy political waters as the 2020 campaign now begins in earnest. Trump continues to dominate the party, but many lawmakers are uneasy about their ability to defend his conduct and hold on to suburban support.

Few Republicans, however, are willing to even lightly criticize Trump since they widely believe they will need his voters' backing and enthusiasm in order to survive next year.

Still, the Kentucky defeat has sparked concern among the party's donors and many longtime GOP leaders who are worried that the nonstop twists of the House impeachment inquiry and Trump's growing fury are making it increasingly difficult for Republicans to make a clear and compelling case to voters.

"It was a rough night," said Scott Reed, the chief political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "The Republican Party is lacking message discipline, and that needs to be addressed. There is a lot of positive news around President Trump's governing on the economy, on regulations and judges, and it seems to be overwhelmed by the drama."

"It's a definite shot across the bow, even though Republicans picked up the state attorney general position in Kentucky," said former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele, referring to Republican Daniel Cameron, who became the first African American to ever win that office. "But losing the governorship is a smack at both Mitch McConnell and the president, sending up a cautionary note."

Steele added, "Just because Trump shows up doesn't mean an automatic win anymore."

Some Republicans also viewed Beshear's appeals to moderation as a sign that Republicans cannot take red-state races for granted.

Instead of drifting to the left, the son of former governor Steve Beshear railed against Bevin's divisive style and his attempts to slow the expansion of Medicaid under former president Barack Obama's health-care law.

"Republicans look at that and say, 'Anything could be competitive if the Democrats are going to be on their games like they were with Beshear here,' " said former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum (R). "You're seeing Democrats building on what they did in 2018, running more moderate candidates and making sure those candidates are financed."
In a statement, Democratic Governors Association Chair Gina Raimondo congratulated Andy Beshear.

"Governor-Elect Andy Beshear will restore decency to Frankfort and has spent his career lifting up every single Kentuckian," she said. "Tonight's victory is a major pickup for Democrats and a massive rejection of Bevin's record of stoking chaos, undermining public education, and trying to gut health care coverage."
 

thuway

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,168
We need to have a thread on the viability of winning the rust belt and getting back the blue wall. Are places like Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin lost?
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
We need to have a thread on the viability of winning the rust belt and getting back the blue wall. Are places like Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin lost?
Depends on the poll. Most polls put Iowa as likely lost, Michigan's a hard get, Pennsylvania can be flipped, Wisconsin's toss-up. Ironically, Arizona has been looking like the easiest swing state.
 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
We need to have a thread on the viability of winning the rust belt and getting back the blue wall. Are places like Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin lost?
Tonight's victories and 2018 suggest only Ohio is really gone.

MI, WI, and PA are all still very winnable and with these suburban margins gives us good vibes.
 

Roland Garros

Alt Account
Banned
Aug 9, 2019
68
Um, as I said in the other thread, this is a very dangerous take and I think it's at best a beat-up.

If you examine the results, Republicans did quite well. Bevin was always in trouble because he pissed a lot of Kentuckians off, both D and R. And he barely lost. Also, Kentuckians have a habit of electing Democratic candidates. Since 1931, there's only been 4 Republican governors.

I don't see tonight as a rejection of Trump at all.
 

BobLablow

Member
Apr 18, 2018
2,497
Bevin even sold his soul and tried to get Trump to save his ass at the finish line, and both still took the L. Hell, Beshear wiped the floor with Bevin in Fayette County, where Bevin and Trump were just last night to rally their base.

You hate to see it...
 

GaimeGuy

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,092
Maybe they should worry about the country, people, and humanity instead of winning elections
 

thuway

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,168
Um, as I said in the other thread, this is a very dangerous take and I think it's at best a beat-up.

If you examine the results, Republicans did quite well. Bevin was always in trouble because he pissed a lot of Kentuckians off, both D and R. And he barely lost. Also, Kentuckians have a habit of electing Democratic candidates. Since 1931, there's only been 4 Republican governors.

I don't see tonight as a rejection of Trump at all.
I am in agreement with this. I'm a pessimist when it comes to this stuff, but the Republicans winning everything on the ticket minus the Governorship spooks me.
 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
Um, as I said in the other thread, this is a very dangerous take and I think it's at best a beat-up.

If you examine the results, Republicans did quite well. Bevin was always in trouble because he pissed a lot of Kentuckians off, both D and R. And he barely lost. Also, Kentuckians have a habit of electing Democratic candidates. Since 1931, there's only been 4 Republican governors.

I don't see tonight as a rejection of Trump at all.
It is if you look at the gains in the suburbs, a trend which has followed in 2018 and in all the other elections today.
 

AntiMacro

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,135
Alberta
Nothing embarrasses Trump. He'll just do what he always does: claim he nearly delivered a victory by inflating the person's numbers by a ridiculous and entirely imaginary amount, but the fake media and deep state were too much - but donate and he can keep fighting!
 

poptire

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
9,971
Nothing embarrasses Trump. He'll just do what he always does: claim he nearly delivered a victory by inflating the person's numbers by a ridiculous and entirely imaginary amount, but the fake media and deep state were too much - but donate and he can keep fighting!
He get super embarrassed constantly. He is attending the Alabama/LSU football game this weekend because he was shook by boos and needs some sure-fire applause.
 

Feep

Lead Designer, Iridium Studios
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
4,596
He get super embarrassed constantly. He is attending the Alabama/LSU football game this weekend because he was shook by boos and needs some sure-fire applause.
Obviously Louisiana and Alabama are deep red territories, but they *are* still young people at college campuses. Excited for more booing.
 

Roland Garros

Alt Account
Banned
Aug 9, 2019
68
It is if you look at the gains in the suburbs, a trend which has followed in 2018 and in all the other elections today.

But Trump didn't win the election in the suburbs. He won it based on rural and semi-rural areas which are powerful when it comes to the Electoral College. So Republicans doing poorly in the suburbs isn't new, and won't affect the vote much in the election next year.
 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
But Trump didn't win the election in the suburbs. He won it based on rural and semi-rural areas which are powerful when it comes to the Electoral College. So Republicans doing poorly in the suburbs isn't new, and won't affect the vote much in the election next year.
Actually he won it by taking a large margin in rurals with not as bad loses in suburbs.

The snapback in the suburbs)exurbs most definitely is due to Trump and can and will hurt him.

Illinois hasn't had the collar counties all blue since 2008. Trump cause a landslide here.
 

Trafalgar Law

Member
Nov 6, 2017
4,683
Um, as I said in the other thread, this is a very dangerous take and I think it's at best a beat-up.

If you examine the results, Republicans did quite well. Bevin was always in trouble because he pissed a lot of Kentuckians off, both D and R. And he barely lost. Also, Kentuckians have a habit of electing Democratic candidates. Since 1931, there's only been 4 Republican governors.

I don't see tonight as a rejection of Trump at all.
I am in agreement with this. I'm a pessimist when it comes to this stuff, but the Republicans winning everything on the ticket minus the Governorship spooks me.
dunno hasnt there not ben something signifactly D in the state since 1983?
 

Roland Garros

Alt Account
Banned
Aug 9, 2019
68
dunno hasnt there not ben something signifactly D in the state since 1983?

Incorrect, of the last 10 Kentucky governors, 8 have been Democrat. The incumbent Bevin, who was elected in 2015, is only the second Republican to hold office in Kentucky since 1971. The only other one was in 2003, and he got turfed out after a single 4-year term. As conservative as it is, Kentucky normally picks blue when it comes to governors.

Thats why I think people are building this up too much.
 

thuway

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,168
dunno hasnt there not ben something signifactly D in the state since 1983?
You have to understand people are making larger assessments based off elections in an off year. The Democratic elect was wildly popular against one of the worst Republicans since Luther strange.


I keep my pessimism in tow because we have lost stares like Iowa, Michigan is still not a sure fire thing, and people are actually banking on Georgia. We need to keep realistic.


Every vote counts and I've been doing my best to make sure every one I know and their neighbor goes to vote Blue.
 

Tamanon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,726
Nobody would be drawing messages from this if Trump didn't actually try and campaign for Bevin. Was a mistake on his part. Nobody would see strength from him helping a red state governor win. Only downsides.
 

BassForever

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
29,918
CT
It may be a win, but all these "smaller victories/trending the right way" don't matter if in the main, general election in 2020 the silenced Republicans come out in full force.
 

AlwaysSalty

The Fallen
Nov 12, 2017
1,442
This is great, for 2020 I'm gonna try to donate to whoever is running against Moscow Mitch. That fuckers done just as much damage as Trump.
 

sleepnaught

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
4,538
I think they won pretty much every other state wide election in Kentucky. This means nothing since the incumbent was widely unpopular to both Rs and Ds. Trump won Kentucky by 30%, no way it flips.
 

Deleted member 10551

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,031
I am in agreement with this. I'm a pessimist when it comes to this stuff, but the Republicans winning everything on the ticket minus the Governorship spooks me.

Kentucky is that red. The 15% swing means that 15% voters are repulsed by Trumpism even if they're conservatives. This might be bad news in 2022. THis is part of the reason I want Warren so much, even if we win in 2020, we're only gonna have 2 years to really make changes- need to make them count.

Moscow Mitch has something to worry about (but given it's a federal race he might squeak through, ticket splitting is more common in state races- it's why NC has a Dem governor.)
 

Crimson-Death

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,515
Purgatory
LOL, they just rubbed it in real good in Morning Joe. Then they spit on poor, poor Donny's sensibilities by pointing out that by going to the rally Donny cost Bevin the 5 point lead he had going in..
I wonder if The Orange Fuckface is going to tweet like an orange snowflake today?
But I still think it's more to do with the unpopularity of Bevin and Beshear's father's history with the State.
 

tommy7154

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,370
Michigan and Wisconsin will go blue as long as Biden is not the nominee. If he is I wont be surprised at all when Trump wins again. Dont fuck them, they wont fuck you is basically my take on it. Possibly the same deal for Pennsylvania as well.
 

Kormora

Member
Nov 7, 2017
1,413
Wasn't Bevin an unpopular incumbent though? The other statewide Republicans got elected sadly. There might be a Trump effect, but how big was it in Kentucky?
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,051
Are Iowa and Michigan really gone??

Iowa 100% gone.

Dems need to focus on MI, PA, WI

Michigan and Wisconsin will go blue as long as Biden is not the nominee. If he is I wont be surprised at all when Trump wins again. Dont fuck them, they wont fuck you is basically my take on it. Possibly the same deal for Pennsylvania as well.

... The data we have says exactly the opposite. What are you talking about?
 

Binabik15

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,599
Trump on twitter claiming Kentucky as a massive win for him just leaves me confused.


Why? Bevin was down 250 point (maybe more, some people say) until Trump flew in on an unicorn-pegasus while angels wept about the prodigious size of his hands and Liddle' Adam Schiff cried because of the closeness of the race thanks to Trump's divine intervention. That traitor dog hogging all that ISIS glory, too.