I sort of disagree...regardless of 343's historical trials and tribulations, Infinite is instructive that it had this big, splashy, well-received debut: yeah it was missing a lot of features, but the way it dropped and the baseline quality gave Xbox a LOT of goodwill to rest on.
But the goodwill was burned through much faster than I think anyone expected, and it feels like 343 can't get a handle on any one piece of the puzzle.
I also think there's a difference between 3rd-party and 1st-party live services, but that's harder to articulate. If I had to try, the patience for jank in your typical live service conflicts with the expectation of rock solid high quality associated with 1st party products. Basically, doing live services as a 1st party is going to be harder, and live services are already very hard.