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GOP seems caught in a terrible position here with the infrastructure bill and that makes me happy. Passing the bi-partisan bill gives Biden a big win which Mitch simply cannot do. On the other hand, not passing it makes the reconciliation bill much larger with zero input from the GOP. And Democrats likely get everything they want in there and more. Manchin seems open to spending a decent amount from what I've seen. Not that the GOP actually cares about spending.
Shocking... us senator from a purple state knowing how better to represent her state than a bunch of era forum goers...
Seriously like 80% of the political "advise" here is crap for the general US public.
Issue is, she's buying support with people who won't vote for her by spending support from people who might.
GoP has absolutely screwed this up for themselves and the dems have played it pretty well. Yeah it has eaten up more time doing it this way, but big legislation almost always takes time.
Rs really have no option here and Trump and ilk staying in the spotlight is seriously going to keep hurting them.
R party has ZERO foresight or introspection and buys into their own b.s. wayyyyy to much. They could have easily played this last election better and kept the presidency, and have played the post election better if they would have just kicked trumps ass to the curb. His base would have been but hurt for a year or so but by the time another election rolled around they would all fall back in line (except the ones who only voted for to trump, and they arent coming back unless hes on the ballot again anyways)
I guess it depends. Are republicans largely going to vote for her? No, absolutely not. But you only really need a small slice of crossovers. It's how governors in opposite states work.
The base just about always falls in line on both sides. Who are dems/progressives going to vote for? A Republican? They will still vote for her and if she can conti use to get good support from moderates and even a sliver from moderate Republicans she easily wins again.
Those are "you might get primaried and lose" numbers IMO; so that's her biggest risk
Ah, the classic Claire McCaskill playbook! Worked GREAT for her!
*eyeroll*
Of that i could see. It would be a risky move to primary her when she would almost surely win reelection.
And let's be honest, outside of her personality shes still a solid D vote on almost everything as long as she is ok with the process it was done with.
Those rebublicans won't actually vote for her though.
Kelly with the overwhelming support from the base who will actually vote for him is in a safer spot than Sinema.
Also I feel like those numbers aren't really that great "for a senator" as this tweet says. I get that AZ is still very much a purple state but MN has a GOP state legislature and both of our senators poll better than that.
And yeah, she's in danger of being successfully primaried as others have said with numbers like that.
So yeah, Sinema doesn't "know what she's doing."
She is an idiot.
Colbert making fun of Clown at the rally.
This is the start of the bit. At 4:30 we hear Clown saying, "[we] sent a brave young man from Ohio to a plant." Yes, plant. He then goes on to ask the mystified quiet audience, "You know who I'm talking about... the stars and stripes on the face of the moon." over and over, as he clearly cannot remember Neil Armstrong's name, and he apparently meant "planet" instead of "plant", which would still be comically wrong.
www.youtube.com
This is the start of the bit. At 4:30 we hear Clown saying, "[we] sent a brave young man from Ohio to a plant." Yes, plant. He then goes on to ask the mystified quiet audience, "You know who I'm talking about... the stars and stripes on the face of the moon." over and over, as he clearly cannot remember Neil Armstrong's name, and he apparently meant "planet" instead of "plant", which would still be comically wrong.
No. 45 Offers Nothing New At Rambling Ohio Rally
Even some of his most fervent supporters changed the channel during the former president's speech last weekend, finding little new content amid his litany of...
www.youtube.com
I'm not so sure. Fricking wapo is calling it Biden's bungled infrastructure bill already.
Even though the media shouldn't blame Biden they will.
So she has way worse Dem support and a tiny bit less Independent support, but more Pub support (who won't vote for her ever). So what is she doing right? Pissing off the people who would vote for her and gaining some % of people who would NEVER vote for her? If her shtick was working her independent number's should be better than Kelly's, but they aren't.
Sinema and Kelly have basically the same favorable/unfavorable among independents.
Among Dems and Republicans, averaging %'s (assuming both blocks are same size):
Sinema 51.5%
Kelly 49.5%
She has a slight lead there, but only half of those are from people sure to vote for her, while over 80% of Kelly's favorables are from people sure to vote for him.
Among Dems and Republicans, averaging %'s (assuming both blocks are same size):
Sinema 51.5%
Kelly 49.5%
She has a slight lead there, but only half of those are from people sure to vote for her, while over 80% of Kelly's favorables are from people sure to vote for him.
The pretense to the pretense is the Trump tax cuts and then R congressional majority under Trump not doing anything about the deficit.
what is this logic? Your state legislature is gop because state legislatures are heavily influenced by districts. Your senators are democratic because they ignore boundaries through statewide elections which are easier to take when your population density is lopsided in the twin cities which are highly liberal
MN isn't that far removed from having GOP governors and senators.
AZ now has 2 Dem senators.
I think as time goes on the state will be more reliably blue.
I'm just saying the tweet "haven't seen numbers like this for a senator" is an odd thing to say. Lots of senators poll better than that, even in swingier/purpler states than MN.
About Sinema's approval:
This gives a good picture:
But I do think the quote was talking about Republican approval specifically and it's hard to find that.
A good few do, sure. It's not quite as big an aberration as the person is putting it.
This gives a good picture:
Also this:
But I do think the quote was talking about Republican approval specifically and it's hard to find that.
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Ahh I seem to remember when GOP completely ignored CBO when they said Trump tax cuts would increase deficits??
I agree with others in this thread that it's Trump's nomination if he wants it, and I believe he will want it because a) he wants the legal protection, b) he wants the grift, c) he by now genuinely believes his own Big Lie and wants revenge which is always a major driver for him, d) normal people can move on and be happy with being Kingmaker but this clown is so flawed he cannot, physically cannot, endorse someone else for a position he believes is his.
The wild cards are the health of both Biden and Clown in 2-3 years time. One or both may not be able to run, and if we end up with Kamala as the nominee I'm not sure America is ready to vote her in as POTUS running against a white man, especially with all the GOP vote rigging going on.
The wild cards are the health of both Biden and Clown in 2-3 years time. One or both may not be able to run, and if we end up with Kamala as the nominee I'm not sure America is ready to vote her in as POTUS running against a white man, especially with all the GOP vote rigging going on.
Specifically, he's got more years in him but he'll die at the worst possible moment and all his work will probably be undone by someone way more to right than him. All because he's way too stubborn to retire.
Kamala 100% loses. There is no way she wins the states needed to get her the electoral votes to get elected. If Biden doesn't run everyone better hope Kamala gets primaried and loses the nomination.
the problem is he isn't a kingmaker. Everything he touches fails. Special elections and 2022 will solidify his failure amongst the GOP as a whole... but once the GOP gets the balls to finally try to walk away, it'll be too late.
Kamala has no shot. Its either Biden or some other white man
Kelly is facing reelection in a midterm year. To win he has to turn out his base. Sinema is facing reelection in a presidential year. Her base will turn out for the top of the ticket. She may be better off being able to appeal to the middle.
Leaning on 50% GOP when Mark Kelly from exit polls only pulled in 10% of GOP seems dangerous. The 17% favorable from the GOP seems on the whole way more accurate to the actual pull Kelly has than the 50% on Sinema. Even someone as shitty as McSally pulled in nearly 49% to Kelly's 51%.
52/34 among Dems ain't exactly a super comfortable place to be in considering Sinema has to win a Dem primary.
Unless she wants to go independent, which I guess isn't a totally implausible scenario for this freak.
Unless she wants to go independent, which I guess isn't a totally implausible scenario for this freak.
Sharing this issue of Tangle, talking about Chauvin's sentencing and reconciling that with a progressive policing ideals.
Lol seriously? Many dems have a better chance.
Sherrod Brown would be a instant win against trump imo.
Shit Manchin would do better than Kamala against trump.
Kamala would almost surely lose PA, MI, GA. (Ohio would ONLY be in play with like Sherrod or a Manchin)
How do they stand a better change? You already talking about what someone will lose which is nonsense.
What does it say about the strength of their case if the entire thing could be thrown in the trash if one loyal Trumper simply refuses to cooperate? Hope Goldman is wrong there.
I'll bet anybody in this thread a Trading Spaces-style dollar that not only does Sinema not get a primary challenger, but that basically every single member of the Arizona Congressional and legislative caucus endorses her as soon as she runs for re-election, including the more progressive members.
Brown would be a great candidate but that's an instant R gain in the Senate if he runs. Not worth it considering how slim the majority is.
Sharing this issue of Tangle, talking about Chauvin's sentencing and reconciling that with a progressive policing ideals.
Yeah, it's pretty wild seeing on era even the bloodlust so to speak for really long prison terms for all kinds of random crime threads that pop up.
Punishment as a form of justice only goes so far for the victims and their families.
22.5 year sentence is generally speaking about 1/4 to 1/3 of someone's life. It's a long sentence.
Yes, he took another man's life, but thinking he should then spend the rest of his life in prison as retribution is archaic.
I do think given Chauvin's position and the repurcussions his sentence might have on other officers' behavior makes it easy to want an even longer sentence, but that isn't how judges are supposed to handle sentencing, and frankly, they shouldn't.
There is of course also the argument that black men get as long of sentences or longer for less severe crimes than Chauvin got, that's awful, but the solution to that isn't to make everyone's sentences preposterously long, it's to make those punishments less severe and focus more on rehabilitation and community oriented restorative justice.
It's a long fight as you stated, and changing people's minds about harsh sentences in general is difficult work.
A ton of work needs to be done as well around not having a conviction for literally a single fuck up be a scarlet letter for the rest of someone's life. If they did their time and are off papers it shouldn't prevent people from finding employment or housing. All that accomplishes is higher rates of recidivism which further degrades the community.
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I am only referring to whoneoukd have a better chance at the White House.
Kamala would get crushed by trump if it turned out to be Trump v Kamala.
I think Kamala's getting fucked by the assignments Biden admin is giving her and she's got a bit to go but it seems ridiculous to think she's "fucked" against Trump. Absolutely not unless the economy crashes again or something. Now, against a different challenger she may have issues.
Well they are white men to start vs a mixed woman. While it sucks that's the case, it's the world we live in.
Anyone thinking kamala would beat trump in 2024 are delusional as long as trump has even close to the same energy he had in 2016 and 2020.
Trump got the 2nd most votes EVER. Remember that.
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