• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
Status
Not open for further replies.

Voyager

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,638
I've been watching a lot of 2016 debates and I'm not certain Biden will do well against him. The constant interjections, insults, lying et al. If they can force Trump to speak about policy, then maybe Biden might do decently. I do believe if somehow Biden has a strong debate then it should calm concerns.

I think he'll do better in the townhall setting of the second debate, as that's his bread and butter.

Case Western is allowing a crowd for Tuesday's debate of an undetermined size, so Trump will be able to feed off them, unfortunately.
The problem with "forcing" Trump to talk policy is that he typically won't do it. He's not going to answer the question and will pivot into 5 unrelated lies. I think Wallace will do a good job making him answers questions and Trump will wilt as he always does. Biden should not turn into a fact checker, he should leave it up to Wallace. The only time he should fact check is when he's defending himself and Wallace let's something slip. Biden just has to show a contrast with Trump.
 

Juice

Member
Dec 28, 2017
555
Anyone worrying about Biden in the first debate, keep these things in mind:

1. Trump has not been doing ANY prep work for this debate.
2. Trump has been spreading the idea that Biden has dementia, which he does not and that will become abundantly clear on Tuesday.
3. Incumbent presidents often do poorly in their first debate (see Obama v. Romney in 2012).
4. Trump is Trump.

Yeah, likely outcome is that Biden beats (low) expectations, Trump makes a fool of himself, and Biden sees a 1-2 point bounce that fades in a week
 

Ignatz Mouse

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,741
I think everyone figured that Biden would do better in the Rust Belt than Hillary did. Not sure that everyone suspected he would do this well. No way that Trump has a chance in those states if Biden is winning that much of the non-college white vote, considering his strengths in other areas. That is Trump's base he is just taking a big chomp out of.

I know there's been a ton of talk about how demographics favor the Rust Belt eventually turning Red (ala Ohio), but instill think the cultural differences in the upper midwest vs the lower midwest could keep that area Blue.

The lower midwest feels some affiliation with the South, the upper midwest by and large does not at all.
 

S!lent

Banned
Nov 20, 2017
865
Biden will have lines at the ready for when Trump is in full verbal diarrhea mode. Stuff like "My fellow Americans, we'd be here all night if I corrected all the lies the President just told. But let me just ask you this: Do you want four more years of THIS? This chaos? This utter disconnect from the truth? How's that working out for you?"

The danger zone for Biden I think will be when Trump goes after his family, as that will piss Joe off. He can show the anger but it has to be in a controlled manner.
 

UnknownSpirit

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,150
If discord invites are being allowed to happen again, I would love to get one, but if not, no big deal.

I do wonder if trump is going to say "well your obviously on drugs" during the debate Tuesday.
 
Discord
OP
OP
TheHunter

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
Ok folks, I am not aware of any discord officially for Era but the old discord that was used during the exodus is sadly closed off. Folks there wanted nothing to do with this place, so they pulled up the ladder and we aren't even allowed to talk about Era in that discord at all.

Unless there is another one someone else started (by all means, I just make the threads). Sorry to everyone who wanted in or missed the harbor.
 

ChippyTurtle

Banned
Oct 13, 2018
4,773
They better prep for personal, vicious attacks by Trump. Nothing is off the menu. I would be surprised if he didn't bring up Hunter in some way. Also Biden does lose his temper. Need to deal with that.
 

nature boy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,877
You mean an 8-10% national lead for Biden? That would absolutely lead to an EC wipeout for Trump.
Yeah, I guess I'm trying to extrapolate too much from national polls to state races, because it's hard to reconcile a 8-10 lead nationally with a close race in places like Arizona or North Carolina. The only way I can is assuming places like CA and NY are getting deeply blue and shifting those numbers up.

It's not just about the presidency, you have to wonder what that kind of lead means to the Senate.
 

S!lent

Banned
Nov 20, 2017
865
They better prep for personal, vicious attacks by Trump. Nothing is off the menu. I would be surprised if he didn't bring up Hunter in some way. Also Biden does lose his temper. Need to deal with that.

You can bet your ass that they're having "Trump" bring that up in the mock debates.

If Biden handles it well it'll backfire majorly on Trump.
 
OP
OP
TheHunter

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
Yeah, I guess I'm trying to extrapolate too much from national polls to state races, because it's hard to reconcile a 8-10 lead nationally with a close race in places like Arizona or North Carolina. The only way I can is assuming places like CA and NY are getting deeply blue and shifting those numbers up.

It's not just about the presidency, you have to wonder what that kind of lead means to the Senate.
That's easy, the race isn't close in AZ or NC.
 

Hopfrog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,956
I actually think that if Trump goes after Biden's family and Biden gets a bit angry it could work for Biden. Hillary had to avoid anger because of the double-standard for women, but Biden would come off as strong and fully justified in getting angry about attacks on his family.
 

Mezentine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,964
Just filled out my ballot in Illinois. I don't know how much of a difference it will make, but I want this fucker to lose the popular vote by as much as possible
 

S!lent

Banned
Nov 20, 2017
865
I actually think that if Trump goes after Biden's family and Biden gets a bit angry it could work for Biden. Hillary had to avoid anger because of the double-standard for women, but Biden would come off as strong and fully justified in getting angry about attacks on his family.

Yeah, if it is a controlled, righteous anger it absolutely will be a huge, positive, viral moment for Biden.
 

Juice

Member
Dec 28, 2017
555
Yeah, if it is a controlled, righteous anger it absolutely will be a huge, positive, viral moment for Biden.

100% agreed. And even the handful of times Biden has gotten pissed on the trail this year, while they made the touchy-feely people on the left bristle, they bolstered Biden's image with temperamentally conservative people who want a masculine/macho candidate.
 

kalindana

Member
Oct 28, 2018
3,119
Ei7XOZvWoAAff22

Ei7XOZUXkAAAzlB
 

metalslimer

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,558
Lol I would love for the GOP message to be vote for us to destroy the ACA.

Georgia and TX both are going to be a gotv operation. I still think Biden takes one of them and I'm going to guess it will be Georgia
 

Amibguous Cad

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,033
Alright, then, I'll pull the PoliEra Overflow Discord server I started during the migration out of mothballs. If anyone wants an invite, send me a PM.
 

Deleted member 11637

Oct 27, 2017
18,204
That NC poll too tight, add it to the pile, yadda yadda...
 

Ryuelli

Member
Oct 26, 2017
15,209
Do we usually get this many polls on a Sunday or is it just because we're so close to the first debate? I thought weekends were usually slow.
 

Mezentine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,964
So here's a thread that's going to give me nightmares tonight


I can just about see Senate Dems getting on board with court packing if the court pulls any really heinous bullshit, but I can absolutely see those same Dems completely backing down if the court doesn't let Trump steal the election, so that our new 6-3 conservative court can strike down anything good congress passes for the next 20 years
 

Deleted member 11637

Oct 27, 2017
18,204
Thats basically how all the NC polling as been lol. Its a red state still.

The Cunningham ticket splitting still confounds me, but I guess Tillis is just that unlikeable? Whatever, I'll accept a narrow Biden loss in the state in exchange for flipping the Senate seat.
 

Tiger Priest

Banned
Oct 24, 2017
1,120
New York, NY
So here's a thread that's going to give me nightmares tonight


I can just about see Senate Dems getting on board with court packing if the court pulls any really heinous bullshit, but I can absolutely see those same Dems completely backing down if the court doesn't let Trump steal the election, so that our new 6-3 conservative court can strike down anything good congress passes for the next 20 years


I'm also pretty sure they will uphold ACA as the legal grounds are VERY sketchy and I don't expect Roberts or Kavanaugh to go along with it (they have both ruled on the severability of unconstitutional provisions from larger laws before so it would break their own precedent). That would also give a conservative court more legitimacy.
 

Third Strike

Member
Nov 11, 2017
285
The Cunningham ticket splitting still confounds me, but I guess Tillis is just that unlikeable? Whatever, I'll accept a narrow Biden loss in the state in exchange for flipping the Senate seat.
I'm from NC, and Tillis is well hated here. In the north Charlotte suburbs, he is despised for outsourcing a tollway on I-77 to an international company that has a 50 year lease, and a stipulation that no other general purpose lanes can be built without the company getting compensated. This issue is at the bottom of the list of shit he's done, but the north Charlotte suburbs hate him for it, and this area has been historically red.

It's also similar to how people voted for Trump, but also broke to Cooper instead of McCrory. People here hate the state GOP for the bs they've been pulling for the last decade. Gerrymandering is the only reason they have power at the moment.
 

Falore

Banned
Feb 15, 2019
745
Please send me a Discord invite. I asked the last round and didn't get one. Thanks!
I'm in the same boat and asked the last round but at this point I don't think even people that got looked over last round will be included. I think a handful of people that were wanted got them but most did not sadly :/ It's unfortunate but I don't think anything will change it. Hopefully they change their mind before the election.
 

Richiek

Member
Nov 2, 2017
12,063
I actually think that if Trump goes after Biden's family and Biden gets a bit angry it could work for Biden. Hillary had to avoid anger because of the double-standard for women, but Biden would come off as strong and fully justified in getting angry about attacks on his family.

It's sad how sexist the country still is that Clinton had to be judged by such a double standard.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,152
That NC poll too tight, add it to the pile, yadda yadda...
North Carolina is going to be tight. Trump won it by +3.5 in 2016 which means if it swings with the rest of the country around 5 points (for +7 point margin overall) that it would be close. A poll showing Biden +2 is about where we should expect it.

It may swing further left with Cunningham and Cooper being more popular than Biden and helping him out with turnout.

If the national race narrows to ~5-6 points, NC may be the closest race of the election.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.